Forum: Baseball Forum - Post your picks or discuss anything related to betting MLB here.

Thread: Thursday Baseball Thoughts

  1. #1 Thursday Baseball Thoughts 
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Cubs -102 / Braves -108.....O/U 8.5:

    Ok so the Cubbies are 3-1 w/out Lou and now he is back to coach, lol, do they start losing again? This game is a rematch of last weeks game where the Braves won 5-3, of course the Cubs bullpen had some input into the ending of that game, giving up 1run in the 8th and 1run in the 9th to break a tie game.

    How the Pitchers performed:

    Hill: ND, 7ip, 4h, 3r, 1er, 1bb, 6k
    James: ND. 6ip, 6h, 2er, 4bb, 4k

    Pitchers Career Wise vs. Opponent:

    Hill: 2-0, 0.87era, 3g, 20.2ip, 14h, 2er, 6bb, 19k
    James: 0-0, 2.77era, 2g, 13ip, 12h, 4er, 5bb, 10k

    Pitchers last 3 starts:

    Hill: 0-1, 19ip, 13h, 2.84era, 5bb, 17k
    James: 1-1, 16.2ip, 2.70era, 9bb, 14k

    Hill away this yr: 2-3, 3.40era, 7g, 45ip, 31h, 15bb, 43k.. Batters hitting .191 off him and .197 overall

    James home this yr: 1-2, 3.26era, 4g, 19.1ip, 23h, 11bb, 16k.. Batters hitting .307 off him and .281 overall

    Cubs vs. LHP: .249 overall, .277 Last 10games
    Braves vs. LHP: .266 overall, .283 Last 10games

    Cubs are 3-1 last 4 games....Braves are 1-3 last 4 games.
    Cubs hitting .298 over that span, avg 7runs/game...Braves hitting .244 over that span, avg 3run/game.

    Series this yr: 3-2 Braves

    Cubs are 14-15 on the road
    Braves are 16-14 at home

    THOUGHTS:

    Cubs struggle in ATL (0-2 this yr, 2-8 L10) and the Braves are struggling right now. If it were not for a comeback in the 7th inning vs. the Marlins, they would have been swept. To be short, they have not looked good this wk and are not hitting, no matter which pitcher they face. The Cubs are pretty hard team to bet, everyone knows that. Ramirez left the game today vs. the Brewers and he won't play in this game, might not play the whole series and that HURTS the Cubs offense. Both pitchers have success vs. their opponents in the times they have faced them. Hill, despite hitting a rocky stretch of 3 games where he gave up 5er (Phils), 4er (NYM), 5er (SD) still sports a 2.89era on the yr and rebounded nicely from that stretch with his last start vs. ATL. James has now gone 7 straight starts without surrendering more than 3er, pretty impressive. It concerns me that he gets hit at .307 at home and .281 overall. Hill has been pretty unhittable this yr sporting a .197overall against hitters. I think he has success vs. the Braves because they are a high strikeout team and that plays into what he does as a pitcher and his curveball. There is no question that the Cubs bullpen is a HUGGGGGE liability here. Another thing that concerns me, the Cubs are just 4-7 when Hill pitches, the guy has a 2.89era this yr and they only have won 4 of his 11 starts. The Braves are 7-5 when Chuckie pitches. I would expect the Braves to remain without McCann tomorrow and the loss of Chipper is hurting this offense. I think line movement wise, the Braves get a lot of backing and the Cubs become +money tomorrow. That is what it would take for me to bet them atleast. As far as an O/U goes, I have an interest in that because each pitcher is capable of 6-7 shutdown innings in this game. The loss of Ramirez hurts the Cubs offense (.500 in 4ab vs. James)... I would like to see an ump for the game and check the weather, both of which I have not done yet. Baseball is a streaky sport and that is why I would have to go with the hotter team this wk, which just happens to be the Cubs if I were to choose a side. I can't bet the Braves and "hope" that the offense turns it on because Hill has had success vs them and they have shown very little signs of life this week.

    lean to the Cubs if it were +money, lean to the Under 8.5-110 stronger.


    Breaking down the following games:

    Phillies -102 / Mets -108
    Astros -149 / Rockies +139
    Giants +109 / DBacks -119
    Boston -135 / Oakland +125
    Yankees -122 / WSox +112
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #2  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Phillies -103 / Mets -107... O 7.5 -115 / U 7.5 -105:

    Very interesting game here. First, I have a secret mancrush on Hamels, which isn't so secret anymore. Second, Philly is going for a Sweep of NYM in Shea. Hamels and Maine faced off previously this yr in NY, the Mets won the game 11-5 but don't let the score trick you, Mets scored 7 runs in the bottom of the 8th and had 4 unearned runs that game.

    Hamels this yr: 8-2, 3.55era, 12g, 2cg, 83.2ip, 75h, 11hr, 21bb, 91k
    Hamels L3 games: 2-1, 21ip, 17h, 4.29era, 4bb, 21k
    Hamels vs. Mets this yr: 0-0, 3.00era, 1g, 6ip, 6h, 2er, 3bb, 7k
    Hamels Career vs. Mets: 1-0, 1.29era, 2g, 14ip, 10h, 2er, 3bb, 16k
    Hamels Away this yr: 4-1, 3.92era, 6g, 41.1ip, 40h, 14bb, 53k and batters hitting .256 off him and .240 overall

    Maine this yr: 6-3, 2.81era, 11g, 67.1ip, 53h, 34bb, 64k
    Maine L3 games: 1-2, 4.76era, 17ip, 17h, 7bb, 19k
    Maine vs. Philly this yr: 0-0, 3.86era, 1g, 4.2ip, 5h, 2er, 6bb, 4k
    Maine Career vs. Philly: 3-0, 2.35era, 4g, 23ip, 21h, 6er, 11bb, 14k
    Maine home this yr: 1-3, 4.13era, 5g, 28.1ip, 32h, 14bb, 24 and batters hitting .286 off him and .221 overall

    Mets vs. Hamels:

    Beltran = .400 in 5ab, Delgado = .500 in 4ab, LoDuca = .000 in 6ab, Reyes = .286 in 7ab, Wright = .000 in 6ab

    Phillies vs. Maine:

    Burrell = .250 in 12ab, Rollins = .091 in 11ab, Utley = .500 in 10ab, Victorino = .250 in 8ab, Howard = .200 in 10ab

    Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games
    Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games

    Series this yr is tied 3-3

    Going into Wednesdays game, Phillies batting .217 and averaging 3.85 runs/game.....Mets batting .225 and averaging 2.85 runs/game

    Noteable injuries: Mets will most likely be without Easley at 2b and Chavez in LF, both are doubtful. Replacing them will be Newhan/Johnson (LF), Gomez (RF), and Gotay (2b)...Mets are very top heavy order tomorrow w/ the Pitcher to anchor.

    THOUGHTS:

    I like Hamels a lot and think the kid is going to be something special one day as long as he stays healthy. He has the higher era but imo I don't think that Maine's era of 2.81 truly reflects what he has looked like lately. Maine posts a 4.76era over his last 3 games and while I think that is high, his era falls in the range of 3.75-4.25 on the yr imo, not 2.81..The Phillies are 8-4 when Hamels pitches and the Mets are 8-3 when Maine throws, something has to give here. On the yr, Mets hit LHP at .319, a mind blowing number however this number is now at .276 in L10 games.. Phillies hit RHP better than they do LHP and on the yr avg .274 and .263 in L10 games. I think most people feel Mets crush LHP but I am starting to feel that their numbers are regressing to a more normal number and a number in range with how the Phillies hit RHP. Now its pretty hard to understand why Maine struggles at home and his home numbers are not even close to him overall numbers or his away numbers. Batters are hitting .286 off Maine when he pitches in Shea. Hamels has had a problem this yr with the long ball, giving up 11hr's this yr, the good thing is that he doesnt walk many batters to really kill himself with the HR's. Shea is a pretty big park so he might be able to keep it in the park. The Mets are suffering from some injuries and lineup is getting lighter. Alou, Valentin, and Green have been down, now Easley and Chavez will be unavailble.. A potential lineup could look something like this, not sure what order but pretty sure on the players:

    Reyes (SS), Gotay (2b), Beltran (CF), Delgado (1b), Wright (3b), LoDuca (C), Newhan (LF), Gomez (RF), Maine (P)...

    Hamels has to avoid letting Reyes, Beltran, or Delgado beat him, the only 3 batters in the Mets lineup with any type of success off him. Hamels should be able to get through the bottom part of the order with little trouble. Philly bullpen always puts a scare and some risk into a play but Hamels averages 7ip/start on the yr. Maine averages 6ip/start and has not worked into the 7th inning in any of his last 6 starts. As far as line movement comes in, Hamels is a pretty well known and liked pitcher but the Mets have a lot of backers so that "avoid the sweep" money could be coming in which in that cause would basically drop Hamels to +money.

    lean to the Phillies
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #3  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Astros -149/ -1.5 +100:

    This writeup doesn't need as much detail as the others.

    Oswalt this yr: 6-4, 3.20era, 13g, 90ip, 81h, 29bb, 57k
    Oswalt L3 games: 0-2, 4.50era, 20ip, 23h, 6bb, 10k
    Oswalt vs. Rockies Career: 5-1, 1.73era, 6g, 41.2ip, 36h, 6bb, 31k
    Oswalt away: 2-3, 5.91era, 5g, 32ip, 39h, 13bb, 19k and batters hitting .298 off him on the road and .238 overall

    Oswalt hasn't been the pitcher we all know lately and on the road this yr and I think what he needs is a good dose of the Rockies. A team that he has his way with over his career.

    Rockies vs. Oswalt:

    Atkins = .400 in 5ab, Hawpe = .333 in 9ab, Helton = .294 in 17ab, Matsui = .429 in 7ab, Torreabla = .200 in 5ab.

    Doesnt seem like 6 games worth of pitching experience vs. this Rockies team and its not. Oswalt only faced the Rockies one time in 06': 7ip, 8h, 2er, 1bb, 4k....one time in 05': 7ip, 6h, 0er, 1bb, 6k...one time in 04': 7ip, 5h, 1er, 0bb, 6k.

    The Rockies have of course replaced some players in that time frame and so the career numbers are not that relevant but I just don't believe that Oswalt can be that bad on the road. Its worth mentioning that the Rockies will start Josh Fogg in this game, fresh off the D/L...

    Fogg this yr: 1-5, 4.53era, 10g, 53.2ip, 61h, 22bb, 33k
    Fogg at home: 0-3, 5.59era, 4g, 19.1ip, 24h, 7bb, 12k
    Fogg vs. Astros in Career: 3-6, 6.09era, 13g, 75.1ip, 77h, 51er, 32bb, 38k

    Astros vs. Fogg:

    Ausmus = .286 in 21ab, Berkman = .400 in 25ab, Biggio = .242 in 33ab, Burke = .286 in 7ab, Ensberg = .385 in 13ab, Everett = .154 in 13ab, Lamb = .409 in 22ab, Loretta = .333 in 9ab


    THOUGHTS:

    This is a play on Oswalt not being as bad as he has been on the road as much as it is of a fade vs. Josh Fogg. I will go ahead and do a -1 on this game to get some better odds and I understand the Astros are a tough team to bet on but they are in one of these W-L-W-L-W-L type streaks and due for a W after the loss in Wednesdays game..They get their Ace on the mound against a bum, don't mean to be so harsh but Fogg is no good.. Astros offense has picked it up this last week as well and they really should not struggle with Fogg. Rockies are 3-6 when Fogg pitches this yr, Astros are 6-7 when Oswalt pitches and that is bad but these numbers have to revert back to their averages sooner or later and Oswalt has not had over a 4.00era on the road in the last 3 yrs. This is one of those games I just have a feeling about and hope that feeling is right.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #4  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    I went ahead and played Astros -1, despite the line drop...Will post my thoughts on the other games in a little bit..GL to all
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #5  
    Rx. Senior zeke taylor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Beyond the details
    Posts
    11,410
    i have 2k on stros and waiting for berkman in/out of announced lineups to put the additional 800-100 on game.....i will be betting mroe regardless of whether hes in or out....i just think the price will improve if hes not in lineup at 230-240 pm.......

    Straight Wager 06/07/07 12:54 ET
    2000.00/1408.45 Result: Pending
    Astros(Houston) (Oswalt)
    Rockies(Colorado) (Fogg) 06/07/07 (15:05 ET)
    Astros(Houston) -142


    oswalt will do what he does...i simply see the astros puttin runs up today for him..4-6 runs basically....encouraging that they won first game, and scored 7 in defeat yesterday.....im hoping to see -130-135 by game time
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #6  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Berkman is going to appeal, he should in the lineup

    I just the gun and bet it last night and now the line drops from -150 to -141..I wish I bet it now

    Good Luck
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #7  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    I would like some input about this Phillies game from people..

    WHY DO YOU LIKE THE METS??

    Above I posted my breakdown but I have a few things to add about this game.

    People keep saying "Mets kill LHP" but I don't exactly buy that. At one point they were hitting LHP at .331, now its .317 overall and .276 in their last 10 games. I think that # is inflated and it is near impossible to maintain that type of average. I think it begins a downward march to a more sustainable average of .280-.290, still good but not .317 good.

    Another reason why people are backing the Mets is simply "they can't get swept" and originally that concerned me but baseball is a streaky sport and this team is in a bad funk.

    Mets: 3-5 last 8 games, batting .180, average 2.75runs/game over that span.

    They are not a dominant home team (17-15)

    The lineup is weak as hell today:

    Reyes (SS), Gotay (2b), Beltran (CF), Delgado (1b), Wright (3b), LoDuca (C), Newhan (LF), Gomez (RF), Maine (P)...

    The bullpen has just fucked up the last 2 nights.

    Also want to add the pitchers they have faced lately:

    Eaton = 6ip, 5h, 2er, 2bb, 4k
    Moyer = 7ip, 8h, 2er, 2bb, 1k ***(LHP)
    Davis = 7.2ip, 6h, 1er, 3bb, 6k *** (LHP)
    Hernandez = 6ip, 8h, 3er, 2bb, 2k
    Webb = 8ip, 4h, 1r, 0er, 1bb, 8k
    Cain = 7ip, 10h, 4er, 2bb, 5k
    Zito = 7ip, 6h, 0er, 1bb, 7k **** (LHP)
    Lincecum = 7ip, 3h, 3er, 3bb, 8k

    Of the 8 games, 3 have been against LHP and they total:

    21.2ip, 20h, 3er, 6bb, 14k

    Now as more NYM money comes in, we are looking at Hamels +110 type line and there is def value there.
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •