Not sure if that is the best advice going forward. Sure the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:State><st1
lace>AL</st1
lace></st1:State> was dominant last year and provided <st1:State><st1
lace>AL</st1
lace></st1:State> bettors a high ROI, and are off to a similar start this year. However, everyone knows this is the case, and more importantly, books know everyone knows the <st1:State><st1
lace>AL</st1
lace></st1:State>’s dominance. Don’t think for one minute that linesmakers are not artificially inflating each <st1:State><st1
lace>AL</st1
lace></st1:State> team in response to the expected lopsided money flow from bettors blindly betting American League teams. In order for the American League teams to grind out a positive ROI going forward, they will probably have to overachieve and win at an unsustainable long term rate.
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Just keep in mind that with Interleague, we are dealing with a less efficient market place, where both bettors and linesmakers alike have less to go on in deriving a fair value to a line. This leaves the marketplace open to potentially higher disparities between fair value and market price, but also opens more possibilities for model risk. Add the notion that interleauge play deviates from fundamental form more than in-league play, and what we have is a dangerous time to bet baseball.
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My best advice is to increase your margin of safety for the added risks, proceed with caution, and expect more volatile returns. However, making a large structural change in your handicapping technique is not prudent.