Advice For Capping Interleague?

Like I said...I've sucked at it. Any tidbits or pointers to help? You guys who have been successful at capping interleague....what is the single most important factor?

EQ stats

Adjust for the pitcher hitting for AL teams

ooorrrrrrrrrrr just play the AL in EVERY game.

24-18 so far this season. Look for that to only get better.

Ramonskee said:

ooorrrrrrrrrrr just play the AL in EVERY game.

24-18 so far this season. Look for that to only get better.

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Espically in AL parks with the DH.

Ramonskee said:

ooorrrrrrrrrrr just play the AL in EVERY game.

24-18 so far this season. Look for that to only get better.

Click to expand...

Not sure if that is the best advice going forward. Sure the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State><st1lace>AL</st1lace></st1:State> was dominant last year and provided <st1:State><st1lace>AL</st1lace></st1:State> bettors a high ROI, and are off to a similar start this year. However, everyone knows this is the case, and more importantly, books know everyone knows the <st1:State><st1lace>AL</st1lace></st1:State>’s dominance. Don’t think for one minute that linesmakers are not artificially inflating each <st1:State><st1lace>AL</st1lace></st1:State> team in response to the expected lopsided money flow from bettors blindly betting American League teams. In order for the American League teams to grind out a positive ROI going forward, they will probably have to overachieve and win at an unsustainable long term rate.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o> </o>
Just keep in mind that with Interleague, we are dealing with a less efficient market place, where both bettors and linesmakers alike have less to go on in deriving a fair value to a line. This leaves the marketplace open to potentially higher disparities between fair value and market price, but also opens more possibilities for model risk. Add the notion that interleauge play deviates from fundamental form more than in-league play, and what we have is a dangerous time to bet baseball.
<o> </o>
My best advice is to increase your margin of safety for the added risks, proceed with caution, and expect more volatile returns. However, making a large structural change in your handicapping technique is not prudent.

buffettgambler said:

Not sure if that is the best advice going forward. Sure the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State><st1lace>AL</st1lace></st1:State> was dominant last year and provided <st1:State><st1lace>AL</st1lace></st1:State> bettors a high ROI, and are off to a similar start this year. However, everyone knows this is the case, and more importantly, books know everyone knows the <st1:State><st1lace>AL</st1lace></st1:State>’s dominance. Don’t think for one minute that linesmakers are not artificially inflating each <st1:State><st1lace>AL</st1lace></st1:State> team in response to the expected lopsided money flow from bettors blindly betting American League teams. In order for the American League teams to grind out a positive ROI going forward, they will probably have to overachieve and win at an unsustainable long term rate.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
Just keep in mind that with Interleague, we are dealing with a less efficient market place, where both bettors and linesmakers alike have less to go on in deriving a fair value to a line. This leaves the marketplace open to potentially higher disparities between fair value and market price, but also opens more possibilities for model risk. Add the notion that interleauge play deviates from fundamental form more than in-league play, and what we have is a dangerous time to bet baseball.
<o></o>
My best advice is to increase your margin of safety for the added risks, proceed with caution, and expect more volatile returns. However, making a large structural change in your handicapping technique is not prudent.

Click to expand...

Great advice :aktion033

Take all home dogs, you'll get the dog price w/ a team playing THEIR league's rules vs. a team playing an unfamiliar style.