couple games jump out and scare me friday

taking a 1st glance at a few of these games for friday some of the lines and matchups really jumped out to me. i think the reason these lines seem so low is you have a AL team visiting the NL team. Thus elimiinating the DH and making the pitcher hit. Here is what really jumped out to me

Angels (colon) -128 over St Lou (wells): wells has been a great fade all year at 2-10. St Lou bats have not been consistent all year. Angels are 13-6 there last 19 on the road.

Indians (Lee) -127 over Reds (Bailey): Now I know that Lee is not lights out and the Reds are throwing a phenom pitcher. But the Reds do suck and are hardly hitting the ball. Neither team has much of a bullpen to speak of. But Lee did beat the Reds at home on 5/18 9-4. He went 6 giving up 6 hits 4 runs and 2 ERs. I think you would be betting on who has the better offense in this shitty park.

I feel even without the DH and the pitcher hitting both these AL teams still have lots of fire power offensively

any other opinions??

I agree on those two, although I think the Angels are the better play of the two. But keep in mind that despite Colon's record on the road, his numbers have been brutally ugly. In fact, they're worse than Wells's home numbers. He hasn't looked good at all in his last couple starts, but I can't see this Angels offense not hitting Wells hard tonight.

As for the other game, it's tough to predict what Bailey will do tonight. Cleveland is certainly known for their offensive capabilities, but they haven't been hammering the ball quite as much lately. Like you said, Bailey is a phenom. The kid has unbelieveable stuff, but he still plays for the Reds. BOL tonight.

thanks Jibba...on the flip side I am looking at 2 NL teams for tongiht...At first glance i like Zona +145..taking Papi and placing him on 1st base will make the Sox defense a little weaker. it also takes Youks bat out of the lineup. Zona is a scrappy team. Pitt +180 (which should rise as the day goes on). Still not sold on the Yanks being a 2-1 fav with struggling Andy at home. Gorzelanny is a scrappy lefty. Although his last 4 outings have not been his best all year

c note said:

thanks Jibba...on the flip side I am looking at 2 NL teams for tongiht...At first glance i like Zona +145..taking Papi and placing him on 1st base will make the Sox defense a little weaker. it also takes Youks bat out of the lineup. Zona is a scrappy team. Pitt +180 (which should rise as the day goes on). Still not sold on the Yanks being a 2-1 fav with struggling Andy at home. Gorzelanny is a scrappy lefty. Although his last 4 outings have not been his best all year

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Be careful with that 'Zona play. Not trying to sound like a homer, but Beckett against an NL lineup is a great matchup. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Youkilis in the lineup tonight. he played about 20 games in the outfield last year. Not exactly sure how they'd work it out, but I'm very curious to see the lineup card when it comes out.

Like Pittsburgh, but not sure if I can go with the slumping Pirates even against a potentially still hurt Pettitte. Running this one through a few more times in my head before I decide, but the line does seem high considering how good Gorzellany has been this year. Should go higher though.

Jibba said:

Be careful with that 'Zona play. Not trying to sound like a homer, but Beckett against an NL lineup is a great matchup. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Youkilis in the lineup tonight. he played about 20 games in the outfield last year. Not exactly sure how they'd work it out, but I'm very curious to see the lineup card when it comes out.

Like Pittsburgh, but not sure if I can go with the slumping Pirates even against a potentially still hurt Pettitte. Running this one through a few more times in my head before I decide, but the line does seem high considering how good Gorzellany has been this year. Should go higher though.

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thanks...not pulling the trigger on these yet....think the lines go higher in both games.....still looking at them and appreciate anyone who has a angle on these games....just at a glance these jumped out

No angle on this game but a game you should look at...Cubs -111

Cubs -111:

I wanted to play the Cubs last night but didn't, I don't know if I will pass up the chance tonight now that the line is moving in my favor. Marshall was -147 last week and now on the road he is -111? Braves are 16-15 at home, about the same the Cubs do on the road..People can only be backing the Braves because they believe they will turn it around one of these games. Look, you can't "expect" teams to just turn it on you have to follow their streaks. Cubs right now are winning ball games (4 of last 5) and the Braves are losing them (5 of last 6) . This is a rematch of Sundays game where the Cubs gave a beating to Cormier and Marshall looked unhittable

Marshall this yr: 1-2, 2.25era, 20ip, 16h, 22k, 5bb

Those numbers tell me that he is a victim of run support. Also in his career vs the Braves he is 1-1, 2.13era, 2g, 12.2ip, 13h, 3er, 3bb, 10k. I would take 3er tonight and still like my chances.

Cormier, what more can I say about the guy. He sucked last week in his only start this yr. He is fighting for the #5 spot in the rotation but this has to be a blow to his confidence, facing the same team who just beat his ass in his 2nd start of the yr. Keep dropping this line, please because it makes 0 sense at all.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

I would stay away from playing the Angels in Stl...

Stl is not that many games out right now and betting against them at home is not a game I would pick out. jmo and my opinion is worth a lot of money

c note said:

thanks...not pulling the trigger on these yet....think the lines go higher in both games.....still looking at them and appreciate anyone who has a angle on these games....just at a glance these jumped out

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Agree on the Yankees game, and the line was already up to +200 last time I checked. Not sure about the Sox game though, as I wouldn't be surprised if picking the red hot D-Backs at home as a big dog to a slumping Sox team is a popular pick today. BOL.

And for what it's worth, I ended up playing the Angels and staying away from the Tribe.

Jibba said:

Agree on the Yankees game, and the line was already up to +200 last time I checked. Not sure about the Sox game though, as I wouldn't be surprised if picking the red hot D-Backs at home as a big dog to a slumping Sox team is a popular pick today. BOL.

And for what it's worth, I ended up playing the Angels and staying away from the Tribe.

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and as you can see my picks are not that "sharp"....none of the plays I listed are plays that slim listed the sharps are on today....but the sharps are not against me either thus far....maybe its only time that they see my post and jump on board??