After some thought and some encouragement, I'm back sooner than expected. Fade me if you want, as I have been losing a lot more than I've been winning the last few days (lost 15+ units in the last 3 days). But I hope to get back on track today. Keeping the plays smaller than usual until I fully regain my confidence.
Money Lines:
Favorites: 148-93 for +17.51 units (61.4%)
Underdogs: 56-61 for +11.74 units (47.9%)
Total: 204-154 for for +29.25 units (57%)
Totals: 5-1 for 5.13 units
Run Lines: 12-14 for -0.04 units
Parlays: 1-3 for -2.97 units
_______________________________________________________
Marlins -117: The Marlins have had great success against the Devil Rays in the past. And I just love this spot for the Fish today, as the Devil Rays are coming off a big late inning win over a divisional rival yesterday. Florida has already swept one series in Tampa Bay this year, and I like their chances even more in Dolphin Stadium. First, and most obvious, is that Tampa is a horrible road team. I can't let being burned by the D-Rays yesterday scare me off. We're still talking about a team that has won only 13 of their last 61 games on the road. I think it's also important to stress that the D-Rays are a team that is completely reliant on their offense in 3 out of every 5 games. I mean, they're pitching has been so incredibly bad in those other 3 games that they called up a pitcher who bounced between KC and TB while putting up an ERA of 5.49 and a WHIP of 1.49 in his short career. So tonight the Rays will have to do it against a hot team with a weaker than average lineup and without one of their 2 good pitchers on the mound.
Byung-Hyun Kim takes the hill for the Marlins tonight, and although in the past I recommended fading him, I think he can handle this TB offense. He's impressed me over his last 2 starts, going at least 6 in both while giving up only 3 hits in each start (along with 1 ER combined). He also looked decent against Tampa earlier this season, doing 5.1 and giving up 6 hits and 2 ERs. I think it's a great situation for the Fish to pull their way up to the .500 mark tonight. 0.86 units to win 0.75.
Orioles +102: I've been a big supporter of Trachsel this year, especially at home where his stats have been stellar. In 4 home starts, he's gone 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a .205 BAA. Plus, he's had success in his career against the Rockies. Baltimore is a far better team when playing at home, and the Rockies are certainly a worse team while on the road (although this isn't quite as obvious from looking at their record). Colorado has been playing well lately, but they haven't exactly been faced with the toughest of competition. They won't be facing a lineup like that of the Astros or Reds tonight. They'll be facing what I believe to be a far superior Baltimore lineup. And I love getting that solid lineup as a home dog tonight. 0.75 units to win 0.77.
Pirates +200: This Yankees team was a clear fade just 2 weeks ago, and now they're back to being overvalued by the public. Gorzellany has been extremely consistent this year and has put up stellar numbers. Despite Pettitte's success against the Pirates in the past, I have to go against him here coming off an injury-shortened last start. Bay has had a lot of success against the crafty lefty and Sanchez is finally starting to come around. Maybe this finally is "the time" when the Yankees make their huge run and jump right back into the playoff hunt. But we've been hearing that all year long. 0.75 units to win 1.5.
Angels -123: The Angels swept the Dogers just a few weeks ago to continue St. Louis's awful streak in interleague play. They've now lost 13 of their last 15 interleague games, and tonight they send a pitcher to the mound who is 2-10 on the year. Wells has given up 12 runs and 18 hits in his last 2 starts, and it won't get any easier against the Angels tonight. The line is low in this one because of the lack of the DH and because of Colon's road woes this year. But I don't think he's a generally bad road starter. He had a bad start against KC on the road and that didn't help his numbers, but I don't think too many people believe he's actually that bad on the road that he can't even beat KC. His only other bad road start was in Detroit, which is a very tough place (and team) to play. Hopefully he'll back to his old form after getting some rest. 0.92 units to win 0.75.
Padres -125: The Padres have been very good to me this year, and I'm going to stick with a good thing here. Germano is overperforming right now, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to end tonight. He's already beaten this Mariners team once this year, and it should be a bit easier this time around without a DH. Batista is sporting a 1.79 WHIP and a .331 BAA on the road this year, and those aren't numbers you want to take into a battle against one of the hottest teams in baseball, who also happens to be one of the best home teams in baseball this year. My only worry is that San Diego is due for a letdown after a big emotional win last night, but I will stick with the hot team that has won me some good money this year so far. 0.94 units to win 0.75.
Will also play Oakland (+126), Toronto (+188) and NYM (+117) if the lines move a bit in my favor. BOL to everyone on today's card. Here's to getting back on track. :toast:<!-- / message -->
Money Lines:
Favorites: 148-93 for +17.51 units (61.4%)
Underdogs: 56-61 for +11.74 units (47.9%)
Total: 204-154 for for +29.25 units (57%)
Totals: 5-1 for 5.13 units
Run Lines: 12-14 for -0.04 units
Parlays: 1-3 for -2.97 units
_______________________________________________________
Marlins -117: The Marlins have had great success against the Devil Rays in the past. And I just love this spot for the Fish today, as the Devil Rays are coming off a big late inning win over a divisional rival yesterday. Florida has already swept one series in Tampa Bay this year, and I like their chances even more in Dolphin Stadium. First, and most obvious, is that Tampa is a horrible road team. I can't let being burned by the D-Rays yesterday scare me off. We're still talking about a team that has won only 13 of their last 61 games on the road. I think it's also important to stress that the D-Rays are a team that is completely reliant on their offense in 3 out of every 5 games. I mean, they're pitching has been so incredibly bad in those other 3 games that they called up a pitcher who bounced between KC and TB while putting up an ERA of 5.49 and a WHIP of 1.49 in his short career. So tonight the Rays will have to do it against a hot team with a weaker than average lineup and without one of their 2 good pitchers on the mound.
Byung-Hyun Kim takes the hill for the Marlins tonight, and although in the past I recommended fading him, I think he can handle this TB offense. He's impressed me over his last 2 starts, going at least 6 in both while giving up only 3 hits in each start (along with 1 ER combined). He also looked decent against Tampa earlier this season, doing 5.1 and giving up 6 hits and 2 ERs. I think it's a great situation for the Fish to pull their way up to the .500 mark tonight. 0.86 units to win 0.75.
Orioles +102: I've been a big supporter of Trachsel this year, especially at home where his stats have been stellar. In 4 home starts, he's gone 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a .205 BAA. Plus, he's had success in his career against the Rockies. Baltimore is a far better team when playing at home, and the Rockies are certainly a worse team while on the road (although this isn't quite as obvious from looking at their record). Colorado has been playing well lately, but they haven't exactly been faced with the toughest of competition. They won't be facing a lineup like that of the Astros or Reds tonight. They'll be facing what I believe to be a far superior Baltimore lineup. And I love getting that solid lineup as a home dog tonight. 0.75 units to win 0.77.
Pirates +200: This Yankees team was a clear fade just 2 weeks ago, and now they're back to being overvalued by the public. Gorzellany has been extremely consistent this year and has put up stellar numbers. Despite Pettitte's success against the Pirates in the past, I have to go against him here coming off an injury-shortened last start. Bay has had a lot of success against the crafty lefty and Sanchez is finally starting to come around. Maybe this finally is "the time" when the Yankees make their huge run and jump right back into the playoff hunt. But we've been hearing that all year long. 0.75 units to win 1.5.
Angels -123: The Angels swept the Dogers just a few weeks ago to continue St. Louis's awful streak in interleague play. They've now lost 13 of their last 15 interleague games, and tonight they send a pitcher to the mound who is 2-10 on the year. Wells has given up 12 runs and 18 hits in his last 2 starts, and it won't get any easier against the Angels tonight. The line is low in this one because of the lack of the DH and because of Colon's road woes this year. But I don't think he's a generally bad road starter. He had a bad start against KC on the road and that didn't help his numbers, but I don't think too many people believe he's actually that bad on the road that he can't even beat KC. His only other bad road start was in Detroit, which is a very tough place (and team) to play. Hopefully he'll back to his old form after getting some rest. 0.92 units to win 0.75.
Padres -125: The Padres have been very good to me this year, and I'm going to stick with a good thing here. Germano is overperforming right now, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to end tonight. He's already beaten this Mariners team once this year, and it should be a bit easier this time around without a DH. Batista is sporting a 1.79 WHIP and a .331 BAA on the road this year, and those aren't numbers you want to take into a battle against one of the hottest teams in baseball, who also happens to be one of the best home teams in baseball this year. My only worry is that San Diego is due for a letdown after a big emotional win last night, but I will stick with the hot team that has won me some good money this year so far. 0.94 units to win 0.75.
Will also play Oakland (+126), Toronto (+188) and NYM (+117) if the lines move a bit in my favor. BOL to everyone on today's card. Here's to getting back on track. :toast:<!-- / message -->
