<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-1.22 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">47</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">48</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+23.66 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">94</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">114</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+3.55 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Pittsburgh +2.17 over NY YANKEES
If they ever make a movie about this game it should be called “The Man with the World’s Biggest Ego”. It’s no coincidence that Roger Clemens is debuting on a Saturday afternoon on Fox’s Game of the Week. We’re just shocked that he didn’t demand to be flown in on a helicopter that would land right on the pitchers mound while Liza Minneli sings God Bless America on top of the Yankees dugout. Not only hasn’t he pitched at this level since last September but Clemens demands are that he comes and goes as he pleases and the Yanks agreed. Why don’t they just give him a permit to crap in the street also? Anyway, Clemens was hit hard in his minor league rehab starts and now the books make a 45-year old who hasn’t pitched in a year close to a 2½-1 favorite. That’s ludicrous and the only way we wouldn’t be making this bet was if Larry King was pitching for the Pirates. Play: Pittsburgh +2.17 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>Pittsburgh (Team Total) over 3½ -1.05
For the same reasons above we’re playing the Pirates to go over 3½ runs and expect to have this ticket cashed by the third inning. This is a bad number that can be exploited. Even if Clemens throws decent he’ll be limited to 85-90 pitches, meaning we’ll be seeing the Yanks shaky bullpen by the sixth inning at the latest. Play: Pittsburgh TT over 3½ -1.05 (Risking 2.10 units to win 2). <o
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></o>Toronto +1.39 over LOS ANGELES
The Blue Jays were just a half inning away from taking the opener but a two-run blast in the bottom of the tenth cost is a nice win. Still, that’s not going to deter us from coming right back on them here with another talented young arm that belongs to Shawn Marcum. Since being inserted into the rotation on May 13, Marcum has allowed just nine earned runs in five starts. The Blue Jays have won four of those five and in the one they lost Marcum threw a no-hitter in six full innings before being pulled but the Jays ended up losing. Overall the league is hitting just .205 off Marcum and another big advantage is that the Dodgers have never seen him before. He’s allowed just 33 hits in 44 innings and he’s also struck out 47 batters. The Dodgers will send out Derek Lowe and every team has seen him about two dozen times. Lowe is definitely reliable and could crack the rotation on any team in the majors. However, he’s a one-pitch pitcher that relies solely on his sinker and when he was an AL hurler with the Bosox from 97-04 he was what you would call very average. This is as sweet a price as any on the board today and as long as the books keep offering tags on guys like Marcum and McGowan we’re going to continue to play them. Play: Toronto +1.39 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Oakland –1.07 over SAN FRANCISCO (3:55 PM)
Dan Haren is perhaps the best pitcher in all of baseball and at then very least he’s in the discussion. When we can lay less then a dime on this stud you can pencil us in. Haren has allowed just 57 hits in 90 innings. He comes in with an ERA of 1.70 and a record of 6-2. He has an unheard of WHIP of 0.87 and a WHIP of 0.66 over his last three, all A’s wins. Oakland is also a much better team against lefties and will face one her that they know very well indeed. In fact, if any team knows Barry Zito it’s the A’s. He faced them once already on May 18 and the A’s won that game 15-3 after scoring seven runs of Zito and knocking him out in the fourth inning. Naturally we don’t expect another 15-run outburst by the A’s here but we’re not going to need it. A fifth of that will do the trick just fine, as three runs very likely gets us to the winner’s circle here. Haren –1.07? Yeah, get in line. Play: Oakland –1,07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2). <o
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></o>KANSAS CITY +1.02 over Philadelphia
The Royals most definitely have a little bounce in their step these days as they continue to progress nicely and gain some steam. In the middle of May they went on an 8-2 run before hitting a snag but they seem to be back on track. They won the opener last night and have split their last eight games and scoring a bunch of runs in the process. Offense is not a weakness. That offense should get plenty of chances here against John Leiber and his blistering 75 MPH fastball. Lieber started the year in the pen but was forced into the rotation and he performed very decently for a few games. However, he now has one foot back in the bullpen, as he’s been hit very hard as of late. His ERA over his last three games is 7.02. Lieber has allowed an eye-opening 23 hits in his last 11.2 innings. Gil Meche has been the victim of poor run support otherwise he would have twice as many wins as he does now. He’s been a little shaky recently but that’s not going to stop us. The bottom line is that John Lieber is a stiff and no way should he be favored on the road against Meche. Play: Kansas City +1.02 (Risking 2 units)
As a bonus, tonight's boxing match on HBO:
Zab Judah +15½ points +1.50 over Miguel Cotto (5Dimes)
HBO Saturday Night<o
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></o>29-yr old Zab Judah (34-4 25 KO) faces off against undefeated Miguel Cotto this Saturday night for the WBA Welterweight Title.<o
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></o>This fight is not a sure thing for either fighter and although Zab is about as reliable as a 3-dollar bill, there’s some definite value here, make no mistake about that. Before Zab did some unraveling he was considered by many to be one of, if not the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.<o
></o>In his rematch with Spinks (he lost the first fight because he was not focused on the task at hand) Zab matched Spinks’ speed and quickness and took him to school before the referee put a halt to the slaughter.<o
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></o>Zab pulled the same stunt when he got in the ring as a 15-1 favorite over Baldomir. He didn’t take Baldomir seriously and it cost him. Like I said, he is not the most reliable sort BUT I do not believe Cotto, as a 3-1 favorite is either.<o
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></o>Against Mayweather, as a 4-1 underdog, Judah came out strong and even knocked Floyd down, his glove touching the canvas, although the referee failed to call it. As the fight progressed, Judah started to melt down and went on to lose the decision. He was right in that fight for a while but got cut and slowly began to fall apart against the world’s top boxer. It could have and should have been much closer.<o
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></o>Zab’s opponent, Miguel Cotto of Puerto Rico, is unbeaten in 29 fights with 24 KO’s. The 26-yr-old has moved up to the welterweight division and looks strong. However, he was a punch, or half a punch away from being knocked out by ‘Chop-Chop’ Corley in Feb. 2005 and also vs. Ricardo Torres in Sept./05. He outweighed the rather light-hitting 15-1 underdog Corley by a lot that night and yet somehow was life-or-death to survive as Corley could not quite finish him off in a fight that Corley must still be kicking himself over! An in-shape and focused Zab is no Corley so what will happen when Zab catches Cotto?!<o
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></o>Torres looked like he, too, had Cotto stopped but Cotto again pulled the rabbit out of the hat and ended up stopping the huge underdog Torres…but boy oh boy, was that one ever a close call as well!<o
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></o>Miguel’s last fight against journeyman veteran Urkal did not impress me in the least as he failed to get rid of his over-matched opponent. He looked afraid of getting hit and Urkal is not a heavy hitter. It was a rather pathetic performance in front of his hometown. Cotto did knock out Quintana but Quintana was ‘exposed’ in that fight and Cotto’s resumë does not show any wins against any real quality and world-class competition.<o
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></o>They are about equal in height but Zab should enjoy a reach advantage. As mentioned earlier, Zab is unreliable; his M.O. is that when he’s a big favorite and expected to win he usually pulls a no show. However, when he’s expected to lose and comes in as an underdog, the real Zab Judah shows up and that’s precisely what I expect to see here. Zab has the ability to box circles around the plodding Cotto and if he manages to ‘catch’ him early and follow up with his fast and heavy shots landing against Cotto’s suspect chin, we could have a big upset and a new champion crowned at Madison Square Garden.<o
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></o>We are going to play Zab Judah on the point-spread handicap at +15.5 points. For those not familiar with that way of playing a fight I’ll explain it here. There are three judges and all three score the fight. You then take the three judges scorecards, add them up and you have a final count. Add 15½ points to Zab’s final score by all three judges and that’s the wager we’re recommending. Should Zab knock him out we will cash our ticket and likewise if Zab wins a decision or wins by DQ. Should Zab lose a decision we will still cash as long as he does not lose by over 15½ points total on all three judges’ scorecards combined (when added up). If Zab wins just four rounds that would be enough, which seems very probable.<o
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></o>Because I really think Zab might explode out of the gate and go right after Cotto, we are also going to make a small wager on him winning by first round knockout at a huge price of 80-1. It could happen.<o
></o>Like I said earlier, this is far from a ‘sure-shot’ but neither is Cotto, so therefore we will be going with the value in this one and hoping that Zab fights like he is capable of once more and exposes what I believe is still a very weak chin in Cotto.<o
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></o>Play: Zab Judah +15½ Points +150 (Risking 2 units) Play: Zab Judah wins in first round +80.00 (Risking 0.1 units to win 8). (5Dimes)
