Here is a list of the top three teams in which in my opinion should produce the most profitable returns from here on out. Sometime in the next couple of days I will add teams and pitchers who I deem should generated the highest negative return on investment.
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<o> </o><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Baltimore</st1lace></st1:City> Orioles
Record 29-32
Units: -1.57
Comment:
The Orioles have consistently been one of the most undervalued teams in baseball this year. Cabrera, Bedard, and Traschel have been one of the most undervalued trio of pitchers in baseball, while their solid home play of the last three years has been carried over into this year yet has not been fully factored on a consistent basis by linesmakers. Sooner or later, the generous odds that are accompanying them on a near daily basis should generate a positive ROI. Despite a 29-32 record in the best division in baseball, the Orioles have been one of the most underachieving and bad luck losers in baseball this year, and could easily be flirting with a first place bid right now.
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Their adjusted standing confirms the bad luck and tough schedule as they are currently carrying three of the highest negative deltas in baseball. On an actual teams runs scored and runs allowed, their intrinsic record shows a 31.6 and 29.4 record. On an <st1:stockticker>EQR</st1:stockticker>, EQRA basis, their intrinsic record is 32.1 and 27.9, while on strength of schedule adjustment; their “true record” shows a 34 and 27 record. The accumulative intrinsic value record based on adjusted standings shows the Orioles should be currently sitting 32.9 and 28.1 record, which shows that they should currently be producing a positive ROI.
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Their hitting has been dealt with their fair share of injuries and underachieving hitters. Early in the season, their productive out ratio, grounded into double plays in key spots, and slugging percentage with runners in scoring position all ranked near the bottom of the league, which proved costly, as they lost a lot of close games. Mora hitting in the two spot early on proved detrimental, while the early season injuries to Payton and Hernandez diminished the quality depth in the Orioles lineup. Tejada, Markakis, and Huff were all underachieving early in the season and have shown signs of picking things up, while Patterson and Mora have a lot of room for improvement as well. The bottom line is that the Orioles have been getting progressively better at the plate, and should steadily improve from here on out as their key players return to form.
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In the off-season, the Orioles fixed their biggest need by adding depth in the bullpen. Prior to season’s start, the Orioles actually had one of the best bullpens on paper. However, their off-season transactions have not paid dividends yet, as Baez and Parrish have not lived up to their potential just yet. Ray has blown some key saves, and should also improve off current form. Their bullpen improvement should allow them to win the close games they have been accustomed to losing so far this season.
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In my opinion, the Orioles will never get the respect they deserve by books this season. The reason is that they play in a division that has teams that carry and inflated price tag nearly every game, while they also have one of the hardest schedules in baseball which will hinder their record and mask their true worth. Combined with a rotation of pitchers that do not get the respect they deserve, the Orioles should continue to consistently come with a generous price tag that should allow them to grind out a profit from here on out.
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<st1:State><st1lace>Texas</st1lace></st1:State> Rangers
Record: 22-39
Units: -15.23
Comment:
Prior to season’s start, I said that the Rangers would be one of the best fades in baseball this year. So far they have proven that to be the case, as they currently have the worst record in baseball and rank near the bottom of the league in ROI. The reason for them being an early season compelling fade is that public perception was far from reality with this team early on in the season. The Rangers have always gotten the reputation of having one of the best lineups in baseball, which was simply not the case this season, as off season losses dampened their depth in their lineup and made the back end of their lineup an Achilles heal. However, they are not nearly as bad as what they have been showing on the field so far year to date, and their adjusted standing confirm this.
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The Rangers are also carrying three high negative deltas right now, which accumulate to a cumulative intrinsic value record of 26.4 and 34.6. Although their intrinsic record leaves a lot to be desired, a 43% intrinsic winning percentage when both their hitting and pitching is underachieving should translate into a near 50% winning percentage once they play to form. Their largest negative delta is adjusted for strength of schedule, which shows the Rangers have had one of the hardest schedules in baseball this year. Despite playing in the West, the Rangers have currently played 41% of their games against AL East opponents, while their measly 6 and 15 record against their own division should improve once an overachieving Angels and Mariners ball club slows down.
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Although the Rangers lineup is not what it used to be, it is better than the one shown so far year to date. The catalyst of their lineup the last few years has been Young, whose situational and clutch hitting ranked near the best in baseball the last couple of years. This year, that has been far from the case, although he has started to show signs of returning to form, as his solid May and stellar June show. Texiera’s power numbers were also below form early in the season, yet has shown signs of improvement and should improve from here on out. Kinsler, Laird and Cattelano are far better than their current numbers show, which should add some depth to the backend of the lineup once they return to form. The injury to Blaylock should prove costly, but his public value has always been higher than his true worth, and his absence should be more than reflected in Rangers line. The Rangers have never been known for their pitching, but their starters are much better than what they have shown on the mound so far this season. Millwood has been an overrated pitcher in recent years, and injuries have depreciated his worth. However, he still is a better pitcher than his current numbers show, and has not gotten any respect from linesmakers in his starts, something that should pay dividends once he returns to form. Padilla has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, and four straight years of decline is enough evidence that he will never be the pitcher he once was and never live up to his potential. However, he still has a nasty arsenal of pitches, and his problems are mainly mental, which allows him room for improvement. He is quickly becoming one of the favorite fades by public bettors, which should allow him to come with some value in future starts. Last year, McCarthy was one of the bigger pitching prospects in baseball that Williams just did not want to let go of. He has a potentially dominant hook once he gets his location and confidence back. He still has been somewhat hard to hit, and once he limits his walk totals to the rate of years past, he should put up some decent numbers. With the price tags that he has been accompanied by year to date, this is the third Rangers pitcher that should produce a positive ROI from here on out. Tejada and Loe are also better than current numbers show, and have a lot of upside potential. The Rangers bullpen has been solid, and their performances should pay dividends once the starting rotation returns to form.
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The Angels and Mariners are being noticed by the public, while the Rangers have been one of the public’s favorite go-against the last month or so. This has made the Rangers an underdog 36 of their last 42 games compared to just four times in their last 12 games. Even if the Rangers do not improve, they should be able to produce a positive ROI just off their current 43% intrinsic winning percentage. An estimated 48% intrinsic winning percentage going forward should allow the Rangers to be one of the most profitable teams in baseball until season’s end.
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<st1:City><st1lace>Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> Cubs
Record: 27-32
Units: -16.26
Comment:
Rarely would I think that one of the favorite teams for the public to bet on would be one of the most profitable teams to bet for the next 100 games. However, this is the case for a Cubs team that could easily win sixty more games this season. Despite six teams having worse records than the Cubs so far this season, only the Yankees have a higher negative ROI year to date. This is a large part due to losing games that they were expected to win easily, as they come into today’s game with just a 1 and 8 record in games in which they were carrying a -151 line or higher. Once the Cubs play to their potential, these big money line losses should be a distant memory.
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The Cubs currently have the highest cumulative average of negative deltas in baseball, which is evidence that they are the most underachieving and bad luck losers in baseball so far year to date. No team in baseball comes that close to their negative D1 delta, which shows an intrinsic record of 32.7 and 26.3. Adjusting each team in the Cubs division to their intrinsic level of play and worth, and the Cubs should be sitting in first place right now, which is particularly surprising when considering the notion that they have been underachieving all year. This is solid proof that the Cubs are one of the most talented teams in baseball and could go on a torrid run from here on out.
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Early in the season, the Cubs were finding ways to lose, as their productive out ratio and clutch hitting was near the leagues worst. Both variables have improved of late, allowing them to win games that they should. Although their hitting is improving and resembling true form the last couple of weeks, there is not a hitter on the team overachieving this season, while Jones and Barrett are hitting well below par. There is probably not a team in the NL with more home run potential than the Cubs, yet the rank near the middle of the league in that category. Once Jones, Floyd, Lee and Soriano starting hitting home runs at the rate they should, the Cubs will be scoring in bunches and putting pressure on opponents hitters, which could be a problem for a division that lacks hitting. The teams best starting pitcher has been the biggest disappointment in baseball so far this season, while their bullpen, which on paper, ranks near the best in the league, has been one of the most underachieving pens in baseball so far this season. Once Eyre, Cotts, Ohman, and Howry start pitching at the level they are capable of, the starting pitching/bullpen combo for the Cubs will be one of the best in baseball. Combined with their hitting potential, and this team going on a prolonged run that could carry any price tag is inevitable.
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Don’t expect the best deals on the Cubs from here on out. They have too much public support for that to be the case. But their slow start has opened up doors this year for value bettors that have been closed on the Cubs in years past. Playing in the worst division in baseball will allow the Cubs to finish out the season with a solid record and positive ROI the next 100 games.
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> </o><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Baltimore</st1lace></st1:City> OriolesRecord 29-32
Units: -1.57
Comment:
The Orioles have consistently been one of the most undervalued teams in baseball this year. Cabrera, Bedard, and Traschel have been one of the most undervalued trio of pitchers in baseball, while their solid home play of the last three years has been carried over into this year yet has not been fully factored on a consistent basis by linesmakers. Sooner or later, the generous odds that are accompanying them on a near daily basis should generate a positive ROI. Despite a 29-32 record in the best division in baseball, the Orioles have been one of the most underachieving and bad luck losers in baseball this year, and could easily be flirting with a first place bid right now.
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> </o>Their adjusted standing confirms the bad luck and tough schedule as they are currently carrying three of the highest negative deltas in baseball. On an actual teams runs scored and runs allowed, their intrinsic record shows a 31.6 and 29.4 record. On an <st1:stockticker>EQR</st1:stockticker>, EQRA basis, their intrinsic record is 32.1 and 27.9, while on strength of schedule adjustment; their “true record” shows a 34 and 27 record. The accumulative intrinsic value record based on adjusted standings shows the Orioles should be currently sitting 32.9 and 28.1 record, which shows that they should currently be producing a positive ROI.
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> </o>Their hitting has been dealt with their fair share of injuries and underachieving hitters. Early in the season, their productive out ratio, grounded into double plays in key spots, and slugging percentage with runners in scoring position all ranked near the bottom of the league, which proved costly, as they lost a lot of close games. Mora hitting in the two spot early on proved detrimental, while the early season injuries to Payton and Hernandez diminished the quality depth in the Orioles lineup. Tejada, Markakis, and Huff were all underachieving early in the season and have shown signs of picking things up, while Patterson and Mora have a lot of room for improvement as well. The bottom line is that the Orioles have been getting progressively better at the plate, and should steadily improve from here on out as their key players return to form.
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> </o>In the off-season, the Orioles fixed their biggest need by adding depth in the bullpen. Prior to season’s start, the Orioles actually had one of the best bullpens on paper. However, their off-season transactions have not paid dividends yet, as Baez and Parrish have not lived up to their potential just yet. Ray has blown some key saves, and should also improve off current form. Their bullpen improvement should allow them to win the close games they have been accustomed to losing so far this season.
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> </o>In my opinion, the Orioles will never get the respect they deserve by books this season. The reason is that they play in a division that has teams that carry and inflated price tag nearly every game, while they also have one of the hardest schedules in baseball which will hinder their record and mask their true worth. Combined with a rotation of pitchers that do not get the respect they deserve, the Orioles should continue to consistently come with a generous price tag that should allow them to grind out a profit from here on out.
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></o> <st1:State><st1
lace>Texas</st1lace></st1:State> RangersRecord: 22-39
Units: -15.23
Comment:
Prior to season’s start, I said that the Rangers would be one of the best fades in baseball this year. So far they have proven that to be the case, as they currently have the worst record in baseball and rank near the bottom of the league in ROI. The reason for them being an early season compelling fade is that public perception was far from reality with this team early on in the season. The Rangers have always gotten the reputation of having one of the best lineups in baseball, which was simply not the case this season, as off season losses dampened their depth in their lineup and made the back end of their lineup an Achilles heal. However, they are not nearly as bad as what they have been showing on the field so far year to date, and their adjusted standing confirm this.
<o
> </o>The Rangers are also carrying three high negative deltas right now, which accumulate to a cumulative intrinsic value record of 26.4 and 34.6. Although their intrinsic record leaves a lot to be desired, a 43% intrinsic winning percentage when both their hitting and pitching is underachieving should translate into a near 50% winning percentage once they play to form. Their largest negative delta is adjusted for strength of schedule, which shows the Rangers have had one of the hardest schedules in baseball this year. Despite playing in the West, the Rangers have currently played 41% of their games against AL East opponents, while their measly 6 and 15 record against their own division should improve once an overachieving Angels and Mariners ball club slows down.
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> </o>Although the Rangers lineup is not what it used to be, it is better than the one shown so far year to date. The catalyst of their lineup the last few years has been Young, whose situational and clutch hitting ranked near the best in baseball the last couple of years. This year, that has been far from the case, although he has started to show signs of returning to form, as his solid May and stellar June show. Texiera’s power numbers were also below form early in the season, yet has shown signs of improvement and should improve from here on out. Kinsler, Laird and Cattelano are far better than their current numbers show, which should add some depth to the backend of the lineup once they return to form. The injury to Blaylock should prove costly, but his public value has always been higher than his true worth, and his absence should be more than reflected in Rangers line. The Rangers have never been known for their pitching, but their starters are much better than what they have shown on the mound so far this season. Millwood has been an overrated pitcher in recent years, and injuries have depreciated his worth. However, he still is a better pitcher than his current numbers show, and has not gotten any respect from linesmakers in his starts, something that should pay dividends once he returns to form. Padilla has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, and four straight years of decline is enough evidence that he will never be the pitcher he once was and never live up to his potential. However, he still has a nasty arsenal of pitches, and his problems are mainly mental, which allows him room for improvement. He is quickly becoming one of the favorite fades by public bettors, which should allow him to come with some value in future starts. Last year, McCarthy was one of the bigger pitching prospects in baseball that Williams just did not want to let go of. He has a potentially dominant hook once he gets his location and confidence back. He still has been somewhat hard to hit, and once he limits his walk totals to the rate of years past, he should put up some decent numbers. With the price tags that he has been accompanied by year to date, this is the third Rangers pitcher that should produce a positive ROI from here on out. Tejada and Loe are also better than current numbers show, and have a lot of upside potential. The Rangers bullpen has been solid, and their performances should pay dividends once the starting rotation returns to form.
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> </o>The Angels and Mariners are being noticed by the public, while the Rangers have been one of the public’s favorite go-against the last month or so. This has made the Rangers an underdog 36 of their last 42 games compared to just four times in their last 12 games. Even if the Rangers do not improve, they should be able to produce a positive ROI just off their current 43% intrinsic winning percentage. An estimated 48% intrinsic winning percentage going forward should allow the Rangers to be one of the most profitable teams in baseball until season’s end.
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lace>Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> CubsRecord: 27-32
Units: -16.26
Comment:
Rarely would I think that one of the favorite teams for the public to bet on would be one of the most profitable teams to bet for the next 100 games. However, this is the case for a Cubs team that could easily win sixty more games this season. Despite six teams having worse records than the Cubs so far this season, only the Yankees have a higher negative ROI year to date. This is a large part due to losing games that they were expected to win easily, as they come into today’s game with just a 1 and 8 record in games in which they were carrying a -151 line or higher. Once the Cubs play to their potential, these big money line losses should be a distant memory.
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> </o>The Cubs currently have the highest cumulative average of negative deltas in baseball, which is evidence that they are the most underachieving and bad luck losers in baseball so far year to date. No team in baseball comes that close to their negative D1 delta, which shows an intrinsic record of 32.7 and 26.3. Adjusting each team in the Cubs division to their intrinsic level of play and worth, and the Cubs should be sitting in first place right now, which is particularly surprising when considering the notion that they have been underachieving all year. This is solid proof that the Cubs are one of the most talented teams in baseball and could go on a torrid run from here on out.
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> </o>Early in the season, the Cubs were finding ways to lose, as their productive out ratio and clutch hitting was near the leagues worst. Both variables have improved of late, allowing them to win games that they should. Although their hitting is improving and resembling true form the last couple of weeks, there is not a hitter on the team overachieving this season, while Jones and Barrett are hitting well below par. There is probably not a team in the NL with more home run potential than the Cubs, yet the rank near the middle of the league in that category. Once Jones, Floyd, Lee and Soriano starting hitting home runs at the rate they should, the Cubs will be scoring in bunches and putting pressure on opponents hitters, which could be a problem for a division that lacks hitting. The teams best starting pitcher has been the biggest disappointment in baseball so far this season, while their bullpen, which on paper, ranks near the best in the league, has been one of the most underachieving pens in baseball so far this season. Once Eyre, Cotts, Ohman, and Howry start pitching at the level they are capable of, the starting pitching/bullpen combo for the Cubs will be one of the best in baseball. Combined with their hitting potential, and this team going on a prolonged run that could carry any price tag is inevitable.
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> </o>Don’t expect the best deals on the Cubs from here on out. They have too much public support for that to be the case. But their slow start has opened up doors this year for value bettors that have been closed on the Cubs in years past. Playing in the worst division in baseball will allow the Cubs to finish out the season with a solid record and positive ROI the next 100 games.
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