I believe the opposite to be true, at least on the blown save theory. Teams that come from behind are emotionally charged for the next game. This is especially true for young or struggling teams. Teams that blow saves usually have poor bullpens and the BS just further impedes their confidence.
I have been playing comeback teams for 20+ years. They win close to 2 of 3.
I tracked avoid sweep teams last year and it was pretty much break even. Good teams at home seem to do better, but they are often favs, so it evens out. 'AS' teams have not done well this year. Also, they have caught on with the public, so the line is now even more inflated. Might be a good fade also.
Didn't mean to burst your bubble. Just my $.02 from observations over the years. I posted this Comeback Theory the last couple of years. I also fade the Blown Save team. These are just one factor of a game, not the be all end all to follow blindly. It does help factor in the bullpen, as we often become enthralled with starting pitchers. Starters figure less and less in the outcome these days, as 6IP, 3ER (a la Rocket) is considered a quality start, lol. 4-5 innings is just 1/2 the game.
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=377937:
Comeback Theory Redux <hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Haven't had time to post this season, so I thought I'd copy/paste to this share this system that I posted last year. I lasted less than a month (tracking), then daily posting became impossible. When I stopped tracking it, it was 21-11 +1047.50 (based on 100 bet). Over the years this has won consistently at or close to a 2 of 3 clip. That includes big dogs, poor matchups, etc. As with any system, please use common sense and proper money management.
If a team comes from behind to win in the bottom of the 9th, play that team to win the next game.
This is the original theory. I have been know to expand it in certain situations to include 7th or 8th inning comebacks (even top of inning), sometimes earlier if impressive.
Also, if a team ties in a late inning, then goes on to win in late or extra innings, I think that should qualify.
I do not count games where the team that is losing ties, then loses. I've seen people expand it to include this, but I feel that coming back from a tie does not have the same impact as coming from behind.
Teams that win in this fashion have the benefit of an enormous psychological lift. Especially a young or struggling team, or a team in need of a boost, perhaps in the dog days. "Even if we are down, we're not done until the last out."
Conversely, the team that blows the lead will have a negative psyche. Will the manager be hesitant to go to his shaky bullpen? Or will he send his crappy reliever right back out as a vote of confidence?
So much emphasis is put on starting pitching when handicapping, I see more and more people playing first 5 inning lines. Bullpens are so watered down these days. This is often where games are decided. Anyone lay the wood with Pedro Monday? Looked good until the Mets stellar pen took over.
If nothing else, tracking this system reminds me to factor in the bullpen. Otherwise, how tempting is it to grab the better starter, especially when pressed for time. Most starters don't last 6 innings. Just how tired (or bad) is that bullpen?
I don't know the stats for having an off day (or any stats for that matter). Could take away from the momentum, or the sting away from the loser, having a day to recover, but I think it still works well.
I remember that it worked well when carried over to the next series. I like to call it the 'happy plane ride' syndrome. I often play against the loser (Blown Lead Team) the next game too. i call this the 'Choke Fade.'
Some veteran teams or pitchers can recover from the blown lead. Sometimes, the better team gets pissed off. Perhaps they were shown up by excessive celebrating after a walkoff in thier house.
Over the years though, the CB team will win 2 out of 3 times, even the big dogs. I might play smaller with a bad matchup, but I've done very well with this. I wish I had exact stats to back it up.
Perhaps someone can help me track it this year. I often get busy in the summer and cannot be consistent enough to keep accurate records. Any help would be much appreciated. Any database heads out there? I would use 7th inning or later comebacks for record keeping. Otherwise, just getting a feel for it is what's important.
