Well, it's like this:
If a pitcher on a given team looks to be the better pitcher, better era overall and last three, pitched more innings, low w/h ratio, winning team record, winning record for the season, improved era from overall to last three, looks to be the nuts, right?
Well, watch the line like this:
Overnight Line
Opening Line
then Early first move line at the sportbooks. Then watch and see if there is any upward or downward support (remember, baseball is a MoneyLine game) and see if it supports the better guy (I mean, hell, you can see if it is obvious who appears to be the better pitcher on the better team) = BUT!
If the line backs down, then shows no support throughout the day, it is rotten. NO good. Ex:
Baltimore today (Bedard pitching) 3.73 overall era, 2.14 last three era
103 innings pitched, 7-6 team record when he pitches, 4-3 personal W-L. Not bad considering he was going against this guy:
Colorado (Hirsch) 4.92 overall era, 7.02 last three era
87 innings pitched, 5-7 team record, 2-6 personal W-L
Appears that Bedard is the better play, right?
So, overnite line is Balt -163
Opening line is Balt -175
Looks good so far, right? Looks like the right direction. but then =
First line move (use sb.com as an example) Balt -169, then 168, then finally, around game time, down to -166 and I believe I saw it at -155 right b4 game time. dropped like a rock. The better pitcher at home, line goes to shit.
Shows no SUPPORT, Baltimore loses the game 6-1 today.
That's just ONE example, there were many more.
An opposite example would be the NYY today.
Overnite -210
Opening -210
First move line -230!
Then, 240, even saw some 255-260, never dropped a beat.
Yanks won 13-6 and Chacon for PITT had the better overall era AND last three era, but the line showed TOTAL move support for NYY.
So, that is what I'm talking about. Watch for the better pitcher, but make damn sure that the overnite, opening, first move and consequent moves show support or lack thereof in your selection. It does work. but, you have to pay attention, especially if the line moves SOLID up or down, THAT is a good indication. ONe more thing - Watch for lack of line support for the home team. A home team that has a consecutive line drop is a loser. PLay the other side. Look for consecutive line moves and compare the last line # to the overnite and opening line #. YOu can tell quite a bit about what is going on.
Hope this helps you,
Uncle Steve
If a pitcher on a given team looks to be the better pitcher, better era overall and last three, pitched more innings, low w/h ratio, winning team record, winning record for the season, improved era from overall to last three, looks to be the nuts, right?
Well, watch the line like this:
Overnight Line
Opening Line
then Early first move line at the sportbooks. Then watch and see if there is any upward or downward support (remember, baseball is a MoneyLine game) and see if it supports the better guy (I mean, hell, you can see if it is obvious who appears to be the better pitcher on the better team) = BUT!
If the line backs down, then shows no support throughout the day, it is rotten. NO good. Ex:
Baltimore today (Bedard pitching) 3.73 overall era, 2.14 last three era
103 innings pitched, 7-6 team record when he pitches, 4-3 personal W-L. Not bad considering he was going against this guy:
Colorado (Hirsch) 4.92 overall era, 7.02 last three era
87 innings pitched, 5-7 team record, 2-6 personal W-L
Appears that Bedard is the better play, right?
So, overnite line is Balt -163
Opening line is Balt -175
Looks good so far, right? Looks like the right direction. but then =
First line move (use sb.com as an example) Balt -169, then 168, then finally, around game time, down to -166 and I believe I saw it at -155 right b4 game time. dropped like a rock. The better pitcher at home, line goes to shit.
Shows no SUPPORT, Baltimore loses the game 6-1 today.
That's just ONE example, there were many more.
An opposite example would be the NYY today.
Overnite -210
Opening -210
First move line -230!
Then, 240, even saw some 255-260, never dropped a beat.
Yanks won 13-6 and Chacon for PITT had the better overall era AND last three era, but the line showed TOTAL move support for NYY.
So, that is what I'm talking about. Watch for the better pitcher, but make damn sure that the overnite, opening, first move and consequent moves show support or lack thereof in your selection. It does work. but, you have to pay attention, especially if the line moves SOLID up or down, THAT is a good indication. ONe more thing - Watch for lack of line support for the home team. A home team that has a consecutive line drop is a loser. PLay the other side. Look for consecutive line moves and compare the last line # to the overnite and opening line #. YOu can tell quite a bit about what is going on.
Hope this helps you,
Uncle Steve
