Monday Bases Thoughts

Got an early start here. Took Sunday off and just closed the wk out positive. Hopefully that can continue. Very small card here with only 5 games and it is not a strong card at all. I broke them all down because I had some time to kick back. A few games are pending on Sunday but it doesn't have that big of an effect on my thoughts for Monday.

Mets -106 / Dodgers -104.... O/U 7.5-110

Mets will be happy to go play an NL team again after losing 2/3 over the wkend to the Tigers and getting drilled on Sunday. They have now lost 6 of their last 7 games. The good news is that the offense has finally showed up again. The Dodgers are not hitting much of anything right now (as I am typing this they score 2 in first inning vs. Halliday) Hernandez has been brilliant and really caught me by surprise since coming back from the D/L. In 8 starts this yr he has given up more than 2er only one time.

Last 3 starts[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 1-0, 0.95era, 19ip, 7h, 2er, 5bb, 10k
Away this yr[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 2-0, 1.04era, 4g, 26ip, 12h, 3er, 8bb, 20k... Batters hitting just .145 off him and .173 overall on the yr.

Hernandez has 1 batter in the LAD lineup to worry about, Nomar who hits .333 in 27ab off him.

Wolf will take the mound for the Dodgers and he has not been as impressive lately.

Last 3 starts[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 1-1, 5.06era, 16ip, 18h, 9er, 7bb, 14k
Home this yr[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 5-2, 3.51era, 8g, 48.2ip, 44h, 13bb, 55k... Batters hitting .234 off him and .253 overall on the yr.

Wolf has been a better pitcher at home, without a doubt and this is a big series for two of the NL's elite teams.

Only Mets hitters with real success of Wolf[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE]

Beltran = .316 in 19ab, LoDuca = .400 in 25ab, Reyes = .261 in 23ab

Prior to the games on Sunday the Mets were 19-8 on the road and the Dodgers were 18-11 at home.

Again there is that whole thought of "Mets kill LHP" and while I tried to explain that they haven't been killing LHP and the number is inflated last wk when they faced Hamels, they do hit LHP significantly better than RHP and they have been crushing LHP on the road at .344, a number worth paying attention to.

No series this yr, Mets were 7-3 vs. LAD last yr and 3-1 in LA.

This line is going to get hammered tonight, just my prediction.

LEAN TO THE METS -106


White Sox +128 / Phillies -138.... O 9.5 -120 / U 9.5 +100

The White Sucks are playing terrible ball right now and were losers of 8 of 10 games going into Sunday where they AVOIDED a SWEEP from Houston, Ouch, and losers of 13 of their last 16games going into Sunday.. Going into Sunday the WSox were hitting just .215 over that 10game spand and average 2.6runs/game going into the game Sunday.. Taking the mound for the Sox will be Vazquez who is 3-4 w/ 4.13era on the yr.

Last 3 starts[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 1-2, 3.92era, 20.2ip, 21h, 9er, 6bb, 21k.... 1.86WHIP
Away this yr[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 2-1, 3.76era, 6g, 40.2ip, 36h, 9bb, 37k... Batters hitting .240 off him

He is 10-6 w/ 4.55era in his career vs. Phillies but those numbers are outdated and the only hitters to have real success off him are Burrell = .300 in 40ab and Utley = .500 in 6ab.

WSox bullpen has been very very bad as well.

They are 13-16 away this yr, same record they have at home.

The Phillies will send out Eaton who went 6ip-2er last start vs. the Mets, will note that he is 5-0 w/ 1.98era in his career vs. the Mets.

Last 3 games[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 2-1, 7.07era, 14ip, 17h, 9bb, 6k
At home this yr[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 2-3, 7.04era, 30.2ip, 38h, 21bb, 22k... Batters hitting .314 off him and .282 overall.

Those numbers are bush league.

Phillies are 6-5 in their last 11 games and 15-15 at home.

This is the first time the teams will meet since the 04' season.

Both Chitown and Philly hit RHP better than RHP.

I am not laying any kind of chalk with Eaton and the White Sox are not exactly a reliable Doggie to bet on right now but if I have to pick one its White Sox +128


Blue Jays +145 / Giants -155... O/U 8.5 -110

Towers has just been inserted back into the starting rotation and is 2-3 w/ 5.15era this yr. The bright spot is that he has 5bb and 33k on the yr.

Towers has started 1 game on the road this yr and has appeared in 11innings total posting a 7.36era, 16h, and batters hitting .340 off him, .290 overall on the yr.

Blue Jays are playing the Dodgers right now (3-2 score) and are 5-5 in their last 10 heading into that game.

Blue Jays are 11-17 away from home.

The Giants are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and are trying to avoid being swept by A's (0-0 score).

Morris has gone 7 straight games of giving up 3er or less and has been tough this yr and in his last 3 games.

Last 3 games[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 1-2, 1.29era, 21ip, 16h, 5bb, 12k
At home this yr[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 2-1, 2.14era, 5g, 33.2ip, 34h, 10bb, 15k.

Alfonzo will likely be out for the yr and Lewis is on the D/L for the Giants.

While Morris has been solid, he is 2-2 in his last 4 starts giving up 4er total. Run support is hard to come by for the Giants but Towers should help the cause a little bit. Toronto is a really bad road team.

Lean to the Giants -155


Mariners +141 / Indians -151.... O 10 -120 / U 10 +100

Just want to note that this is a makeup game once again. Mariners will fly from San Diego to Cleveland for this game then head to Chicago for a series with the Cubs. Indians will come back from Cinci, play at home, then head to Florida for a series with the Marlins.

Cleveland just dropped a 12inning game to Cinci 1-0, Sabathia went 9ip and got no run support, could of used the W for my fantasy team!

Baek has faced Cleveland once already this yr and it was in the first makeup game, a 5-2 loss where he went 6.1ip, 8h, 5er, 1bb, 6k.

Although Baek gave up 5er, he gave up 3er in the 7th when he prob should have been pulled anyway as he had thrown over 100pitches already.

One interesting note, Mariners are 7-2 when Baek pitches.

Baek last 3[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 2-0, 3.79era, 19ip, 19h, 2bb, 14k
Baek away[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 2-1, 5.34era, 5g, 30.1ip, 35h, 5bb, 22k... Batters hitting .285 off him and .267 overall

Cleveland will send out Paul Byrd who is 6-2 w/ 3.80era on the yr. I will say that he is very hittable.

Byrd last 3[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 2-1, 4.42era, 18.1ip, 28h, 1bb, 9k
Byrd at home[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 4-1, 4.22era, 5g, 32ip, 39h, 4bb, 22k
Byrd career vs. M's[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE] 6-2, 2.29era, 8games

Mariners vs. Byrd[SIZE=+0]:[/SIZE]

Beltre = .238 in 21ab, Guillen = .429 in 7ab, Ibanez = .529 in 17ab, Ichiro = .241 in 29ab, Vidro = .636 in 11ab, Lopez = .250 in 8ab, Broussard = .333 in 6ab, Betan Court = .250 in 8ab.

Indians are 6-4 when Byrd pitches.

In 5 of Byrd's last 6 starts he has given up 9hits or more.

Mariners have been crushing the ball for pretty much the last month and average 6.8runs/game in their last 10 games going into the game Sunday. Indians average 6.1runs/game over the same span.

Mariners Vs. RHP = .284overall, .330 L10 games.
Indians Vs. RHP = .283overall, .321 L10 games.

Seattle is 15-13 on the road this yr.
Cleveland is 21-7 at home this yr.

Lean to the Mariners +141 despite the mid country flight from San Diego to Ohio, the Mariners are too hot on offense and Byrd gives up too many hits to not get punished one of these days. Lucky for him he doesn't walk a lot of guys. Baek just has to keep his team in the game and not get shelled himself.


Astros +175 / Cubbies -185

Really no value at all here. Cubs are playing much better but I have no desire to lay such a large number. Which Zambrano shows up? The one who beats LAD, Brewers, Mets on the road or the one that gets steamrolled at home?

Zambrano at home this yr: 1-4, 7.91era, 6g, 33ip, 43h, 18bb, 24k... Batters hitting .316 off him, .282 overall.

There has been no consistency in Zambrano's game except that he consistently sucks at home and pitches well on the road. I wouldn't consider laying this kind of number until shown otherwise.

On the other side there is Woody Williams, a pitcher I have no feel for at all. He has a 6.75era in his last 3 games but when you expect him to get rolled, he goes out and pitches 6ip of 2er baseball. Williams faced Cubs once this yr and recieved ND over 6ip-6h-2er but is just 3-8 w/ 4.55era in his career vs. Cubs.

Play on Mets

WSux line dropped to +116, looking for it to go back above +120

Giants line coming down to -145

where do you find the info of each batter vs. individual pitcher? thanks.

smoney101 said:

where do you find the info of each batter vs. individual pitcher? thanks.

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I use sportsline.com under probable pitchers

espn.go.com is another good option.

i think the cubs take it here

i like over in astros/cubs game both pitchers are hittable and zambarano is 14-3 over last 17 home starts,
williams sucks too.

The Mets seem like a solid play IMO. Hernandez has been very solid this year (although he missed a good deal of time), especially on the road. Randy Wolf should continue to regress a bit against that Mets offense. Still not sure about the Cleveland/Seattle game. Byrd does allow too many baserunners, but due to the fact that he rarely walks anyone, his WHIP is still pretty reasonable. And he's still a little pissed about losing out on his potential no-hitter against Seattle in the snow-shortened game in April. He's always pitched well against Seattle and I think the Indians may get back to their winning ways at home. Just have to decide on whether I think there's any value with them. The only other initial lean I have is Toronto. Morris has had a lot of success in interleague play, but Toronto is hitting the ball and the Giants aren't. So it's tough to justify the Jays being a big dog. Line may have already lost most of its value though.

mets and phillies for me

Jibba said:

The Mets seem like a solid play IMO. Hernandez has been very solid this year (although he missed a good deal of time), especially on the road. Randy Wolf should continue to regress a bit against that Mets offense. Still not sure about the Cleveland/Seattle game. Byrd does allow too many baserunners, but due to the fact that he rarely walks anyone, his WHIP is still pretty reasonable. And he's still a little pissed about losing out on his potential no-hitter against Seattle in the snow-shortened game in April. He's always pitched well against Seattle and I think the Indians may get back to their winning ways at home. Just have to decide on whether I think there's any value with them. The only other initial lean I have is Toronto. Morris has had a lot of success in interleague play, but Toronto is hitting the ball and the Giants aren't. So it's tough to justify the Jays being a big dog. Line may have already lost most of its value though.

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I am divided on Byrd right now and I am not sure there is any value on the Indians. Yes, Byrd lost a potential no hitter back in April but this is a dome team playing in snow who just were not hitting the ball as a team much either.

Yes Byrd is 6-2 in his career vs. M's but how far back do we have to go to find how relevant these #'s are in the game today. He pitched 1 game in 06' (below), 0 games in 05' vs them.

If you look at the one game Byrd pitched vs. M's in 06', he last 3.2innings, 7hits, 6er at home.

Byrd is a guy who gets hit a lot (28 in his last 18innings) so him throwing a no-no vs. arguably the hottest offense in baseball, I don't think it is going to happen. If this line is based on that then it is wrong as well.

Baek leaves last game vs. the Indians tied 2-2 after 6 with 100pitches, they bring him out for the 7th and he gets tagged for 3 runs. He didn't pitch bad at all, maybe a little tired in the 7th but the coaches should have known that.

Now with a dog of +140, what exactly do you want? I would feel good if they gave me a fighting chance from the 7th on in what would basically be a coin flip at that point as both starters would be out of the game.


As far as the Giants/BJ's go, it is very hard to go against Morris but at the same time you are asking a team who has been shutout in two straight games and has a lot of trouble scoring runs and supporting Morris.

rogerdoger2007 said:

i think the cubs take it here

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While I think they win, Zambrano has to show me something at home first before I even consider backing him at this price. I have backed him in his road starts but have stayed far away from his home ones.


Gabanna - I agree it is a pretty low total, I just don't have as good of a feel for totals.

Cheng - Agree with Mets, I will not lay chalk with Eaton ever so GL there.

everythingthatsgreen said:

I am divided on Byrd right now and I am not sure there is any value on the Indians. Yes, Byrd lost a potential no hitter back in April but this is a dome team playing in snow who just were not hitting the ball as a team much either.

Yes Byrd is 6-2 in his career vs. M's but how far back do we have to go to find how relevant these #'s are in the game today. He pitched 1 game in 06' (below), 0 games in 05' vs them.

If you look at the one game Byrd pitched vs. M's in 06', he last 3.2innings, 7hits, 6er at home.

Byrd is a guy who gets hit a lot (28 in his last 18innings) so him throwing a no-no vs. arguably the hottest offense in baseball, I don't think it is going to happen. If this line is based on that then it is wrong as well.

Baek leaves last game vs. the Indians tied 2-2 after 6 with 100pitches, they bring him out for the 7th and he gets tagged for 3 runs. He didn't pitch bad at all, maybe a little tired in the 7th but the coaches should have known that.

Now with a dog of +140, what exactly do you want? I would feel good if they gave me a fighting chance from the 7th on in what would basically be a coin flip at that point as both starters would be out of the game.

As far as the Giants/BJ's go, it is very hard to go against Morris but at the same time you are asking a team who has been shutout in two straight games and has a lot of trouble scoring runs and supporting Morris.

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Byrd has definitely had his problems, and may not have much recent history against the M's, but the line also takes into account that Baek does have recent history against the Indians. And it's not particularly good, even if it could have been better if the manager took him out earlier. Plus, the only really impressive start he's had this year was the complete game at Detroit. Other than that he didn't look great against the O's, where the M's squeeked out a win. He also did the same against the Rangers in two starts (4 runs+ in each). And he put up 2 solid performances against KC, which isn't exactly saying much. And when it comes down to it, the Indians are still 21-7 at home and have won 4 of Byrd's 5 home starts.

Also, Seattle is horrible at working counts, and is actually dead last in the league in walks. Now in a sense that could be seen as a good thing, since they win without relying on walks anyways. But I think a control pitcher like Byrd can take advantage of that weakness. I don't know . . . it's possible I just talked myself into this one, but I really think the Tribe get back on track with some home cooking tonight. They're just flat out tough to beat at home.

Anyway, along with the Mets, I also ended up on the Cubs/Astros over 8.5 (missed out on it at 8). Woody is horrible on the road and Zambrano has yet to put up a really solid performance at home this year, despite playing Pittsburgh, Washington, and the White Sox. BOL.