ATP Picks 6-11-07

1. Mariners +141

Originally thought this was a game to take cleveland but the more i look at it you have to land on the mariners here. They are on an absolute roll right now after sweeping SD, they are 8-2 over their last ten games and 3-0 as an underdog, along with 3-0 away from safeco. At some point the lack of innings that the starters are giving the team will hurt them but I think the pen should be all right in this game especially considering Clevelands bats are cool and they had to go extras yesterday, failing to score in 12 innings. Ill admit Byrd was alright in his debut this year in that snow game that got canceled where he nearly had a no-hitter going 4.2/3 but there were some walks in there and the conditions were almost unbearable. His only start of '06 vs the M's he got shelled going 3 innings and allowing 6 ER. The tribe is only 2-5 over their last ten vs righties and in three games at cincy they only scored 0,8 and 3 in those games which is a great ballpark to score runs.

100/141

2. CHW +102

100/102 write up to come

Vasquez comes back to the NL tonight where he was dominant. He has been victimized this year by a very poor offensive showing nearly every time he pitches. While the chisox have been struggling, that performance by the phills in KC was a complete joke. I have so much more confidence in Vasquez with a lackluster offense than Eaton and a hit or miss phillies team. Not to mention the AL is a great deal better than the NL apparent from that KC series. The chisox should like this stadium offensively and Thome should have a good homecoming. Go sox.

3. CHC/HOU OVER 9

Usually scary to take an over with the career stats of Zambrano vs this team, over his last 5 starts vs houston he has gone 38 innings and given up 3 runs; however, this has not been a normal year for him and I would expect the cubs offense to tee off on woody tonight even though he has had success vs chicago in the past, at 2-8 and nearing a 6 ERA Woody may be saying fair well to baseball soon. If Zambrano is shaky at all and doesnt give them 7 innings you have to look at the pen after that marquis outing and lilly ejection, getting less than 2 innings out of their starting pitching over the last two days. Houstons trip to colorodo helped a little to get the bats going and if they can scratch 3 or 4 tonight I feel comfortable with this over becuase the cubs offense is finally coming to fruition, even with ramirez moving to the DL scoring runs should not be a problem. As much as I like the cubs in this spot, the over is probably the better play.

110/100