Here is a list of three teams that I feel should provide some of the highest negative ROI’s going forward.
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Units: +14.16
Comment:
I have been consistently going against the Red Sox all season, as they have been overvalued from day one. However, I have gotten the worse end of betting against them, as they have won at an alarming rate year to date. They and the Yankees have always been the two public darlings, and books have been forced to blindly add 10 to 20 cents in each one of there games to counter the heavy distribution of public money on both teams. With the Red Sox rewarding their backers handsomely so far this season, coupled with the Yankees having the worst ROI year to date (forcing their public backers to switch over to the Red Sox, giving the Red Sox double inflation), and linesmakers are putting the Red Sox at a price in which they will have to generate a winning percentage that will be hard to sustain just to break even.
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There is no denying that the Red Sox are one of the best teams in baseball. Their deep starting rotation will make it hard for them to go into any prolong losing streak or vulnerable to a hitting slumps. Their current near zero deltas show that their best record in baseball was mostly generated by skill than luck and good fortunes. That said, the simply lack the team to keep this run going. The Red Sox have been helped out by some external events. They have never been a solid road team, yet they have won more road games this year compared to any other team in baseball. Looking deeper into their games away from home, their latest road trip where they played the A’s and Diamondbacks were they went 3-4 was the first time all year they played a team with a winning record on the road. One third of their road games have been against the Rangers and Royals, arguably the two worst teams in the American league. don’t expect their road success to continue. The Red Sox are also playing in a division with three underachieving teams that will pose a more difficult challenge to them in upcoming series. Their 15 and 7 record against the Yankees, Blue Jays and Orioles will like regress once these teams start playing to their capabilities.
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The Red Sox pitching is solid, but probably not as solid as what they have been showing year to date. One can make a case that each one of their bullpen pitchers have been overachieving year to date, and a majority of them have been known to slow down later in the season. Their starting five is solid, but Wakefield has already started to show signs of slowing down, they have a winning record when Taverez and his five plus ERA starts (which is unlikely to be sustained), while Beckett and Schilling have probable put forth their best work already and will likely slow down a bit. Matsusaka is the only one underachieving, but even while pitching well below expectations, is coming with inflated price tags. Once he pitches to form, he will come with even a higher premium.
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Even if the Red Sox generate a .600 winning percentage going forward, what will their ROI be with their inflated price tag. With a 34% rate of being -150 or higher (the highest rate in the league), even that winning percentage may generate a negative return. With the more likely scenario of winning 55% to 58% going forward with the expected improved play of the Yankees, Blue Jays and Orioles, the Red Sox should be dead money the next 100 games.
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2.) LAA Angels
Record: 40-24
Units: 10.5
Comment:
Winning 18 of their last 24 games has made the Angels the second most profitable team year to date. It has also made the public back them no matter the cost, as they have been an underdog just once in their last 13 games. There is no denying this team is good, but how good are they? Their young group of role players have a lot of talent, and it has clearly shown already. But relying on such a young group of players not used to such a long season may prove costly down the stretch in a division with three teams in dog fight until the last day. Being ranked in the top five in runs scored along with the Tigers, Indians, Yankees and Red Sox is clearly a group that their hitting does not belong in, and will more than likely not last. Their starting pitching and bullpen is one of the best in baseball, but Lackey and Escobar are pitching at an unsustainable level, and their overachieving pitching has contributed a lot to 16 games above .500 record, as the team is 17-7 in games they started.
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Their positive deltas are one of the highest in the league. Their D4 delta of 4 shows that they have been helped out by a soft schedule. 3 of their last 15 games have been against teams with a winning record, which has been a contributing factor of their recent run. Their .500 record and negative ROI against winning teams shows that the Angels may not belong in the elite status the linesmakers and public have been currently classifying them in. With ten of their next 11 series against teams with losing records, it may take some time for this team to come back to earth, but by the time they reach the rough stretch of their schedule, they will be carrying a price tag that will make them a compelling fade.
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3.) <st1:State><st1lace>Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> Diamondbacks
Record: 37-27
Units +10
Comment:
The Diamdondbacks by far have the highest ROI in the National League year to date. They have accomplished this with solid pitching and timely hitting, and getting to play 60% of their games year to date against teams with losing records. They currently possess the highest delta 2 and delta three in baseball, and have the highest disparity being actual and intrinsic records in baseball, showing that regression may be imminent for this team. This does not bode well for a team laying basis points 60% of the time in their last 30 games as opposed to just 50% in their first 30 games. The delta two shows the Diamdondbacks have had the luxury of facing inferior pitching, something rare playing in a division with the Giants, Padres and Dodgers rotation. Much like the Angels, the Diamdondbacks roster is full of young talent not accustomed to long stretches, and are prone to wearing down late in the season. Much like the Angels, this team will also be in a dog fight with three other teams, where experience and bullpen pay big dividends, to assets in which they are outclassed in by the Dodgers and Padres. The Diamondbacks also possess an overachieving bullpen. This should mean that they will have to rely on their starting pitching more than ever from here on out. However, Sabermetric indicators show regression for at least three of their starters, while Hernandez and Davis are prone for regression as much as any other starter in the game. The Diamondbacks have an inferior lineup. Although you do not need a potent one to survive in the West, with regression looming for their pitching, their inferior lineup will be noticed more going forward.
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With an aging and overachieving starting rotation, a young and overachieving bullpen, and young, inferior and inexperienced lineup, coupled with respect by the public, and expecting the Diamdondbacks to continue to be the NL leader in ROI may be wishful thinking going forward.
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fficeffice" /><o> </o>- <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Boston</st1lace></st1:City> Red Sox
Units: +14.16
Comment:
I have been consistently going against the Red Sox all season, as they have been overvalued from day one. However, I have gotten the worse end of betting against them, as they have won at an alarming rate year to date. They and the Yankees have always been the two public darlings, and books have been forced to blindly add 10 to 20 cents in each one of there games to counter the heavy distribution of public money on both teams. With the Red Sox rewarding their backers handsomely so far this season, coupled with the Yankees having the worst ROI year to date (forcing their public backers to switch over to the Red Sox, giving the Red Sox double inflation), and linesmakers are putting the Red Sox at a price in which they will have to generate a winning percentage that will be hard to sustain just to break even.
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> </o>There is no denying that the Red Sox are one of the best teams in baseball. Their deep starting rotation will make it hard for them to go into any prolong losing streak or vulnerable to a hitting slumps. Their current near zero deltas show that their best record in baseball was mostly generated by skill than luck and good fortunes. That said, the simply lack the team to keep this run going. The Red Sox have been helped out by some external events. They have never been a solid road team, yet they have won more road games this year compared to any other team in baseball. Looking deeper into their games away from home, their latest road trip where they played the A’s and Diamondbacks were they went 3-4 was the first time all year they played a team with a winning record on the road. One third of their road games have been against the Rangers and Royals, arguably the two worst teams in the American league. don’t expect their road success to continue. The Red Sox are also playing in a division with three underachieving teams that will pose a more difficult challenge to them in upcoming series. Their 15 and 7 record against the Yankees, Blue Jays and Orioles will like regress once these teams start playing to their capabilities.
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> </o>The Red Sox pitching is solid, but probably not as solid as what they have been showing year to date. One can make a case that each one of their bullpen pitchers have been overachieving year to date, and a majority of them have been known to slow down later in the season. Their starting five is solid, but Wakefield has already started to show signs of slowing down, they have a winning record when Taverez and his five plus ERA starts (which is unlikely to be sustained), while Beckett and Schilling have probable put forth their best work already and will likely slow down a bit. Matsusaka is the only one underachieving, but even while pitching well below expectations, is coming with inflated price tags. Once he pitches to form, he will come with even a higher premium.
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> </o>Even if the Red Sox generate a .600 winning percentage going forward, what will their ROI be with their inflated price tag. With a 34% rate of being -150 or higher (the highest rate in the league), even that winning percentage may generate a negative return. With the more likely scenario of winning 55% to 58% going forward with the expected improved play of the Yankees, Blue Jays and Orioles, the Red Sox should be dead money the next 100 games.
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> </o>2.) LAA Angels
Record: 40-24
Units: 10.5
Comment:
Winning 18 of their last 24 games has made the Angels the second most profitable team year to date. It has also made the public back them no matter the cost, as they have been an underdog just once in their last 13 games. There is no denying this team is good, but how good are they? Their young group of role players have a lot of talent, and it has clearly shown already. But relying on such a young group of players not used to such a long season may prove costly down the stretch in a division with three teams in dog fight until the last day. Being ranked in the top five in runs scored along with the Tigers, Indians, Yankees and Red Sox is clearly a group that their hitting does not belong in, and will more than likely not last. Their starting pitching and bullpen is one of the best in baseball, but Lackey and Escobar are pitching at an unsustainable level, and their overachieving pitching has contributed a lot to 16 games above .500 record, as the team is 17-7 in games they started.
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> </o>Their positive deltas are one of the highest in the league. Their D4 delta of 4 shows that they have been helped out by a soft schedule. 3 of their last 15 games have been against teams with a winning record, which has been a contributing factor of their recent run. Their .500 record and negative ROI against winning teams shows that the Angels may not belong in the elite status the linesmakers and public have been currently classifying them in. With ten of their next 11 series against teams with losing records, it may take some time for this team to come back to earth, but by the time they reach the rough stretch of their schedule, they will be carrying a price tag that will make them a compelling fade.
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> </o>3.) <st1:State><st1
lace>Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> DiamondbacksRecord: 37-27
Units +10
Comment:
The Diamdondbacks by far have the highest ROI in the National League year to date. They have accomplished this with solid pitching and timely hitting, and getting to play 60% of their games year to date against teams with losing records. They currently possess the highest delta 2 and delta three in baseball, and have the highest disparity being actual and intrinsic records in baseball, showing that regression may be imminent for this team. This does not bode well for a team laying basis points 60% of the time in their last 30 games as opposed to just 50% in their first 30 games. The delta two shows the Diamdondbacks have had the luxury of facing inferior pitching, something rare playing in a division with the Giants, Padres and Dodgers rotation. Much like the Angels, the Diamdondbacks roster is full of young talent not accustomed to long stretches, and are prone to wearing down late in the season. Much like the Angels, this team will also be in a dog fight with three other teams, where experience and bullpen pay big dividends, to assets in which they are outclassed in by the Dodgers and Padres. The Diamondbacks also possess an overachieving bullpen. This should mean that they will have to rely on their starting pitching more than ever from here on out. However, Sabermetric indicators show regression for at least three of their starters, while Hernandez and Davis are prone for regression as much as any other starter in the game. The Diamondbacks have an inferior lineup. Although you do not need a potent one to survive in the West, with regression looming for their pitching, their inferior lineup will be noticed more going forward.
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> </o>With an aging and overachieving starting rotation, a young and overachieving bullpen, and young, inferior and inexperienced lineup, coupled with respect by the public, and expecting the Diamdondbacks to continue to be the NL leader in ROI may be wishful thinking going forward.
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