Tuesday Baseball Thoughts

A few notes from the 2 early games Monday. Paul Byrd continues to get crushed with hits, now giving up 39hits in his last 4 starts. The WhiteSUX are an unbackable team, they need change and they need it fast. You can't go from good to this bad and not make any changes at all.

Mets -114 / Dodgers +104

I am capping this game right now and the Monday game hasn't finished however, I only need to see a little of that game before making a decision here. I can get into the whole LHP thing again, but by now everyone should be fully aware of that stat for the Mets.

Maine L3 = 1-1, 2.84era, 19ip, 15h, 4bb, 17k
Maine away = 5-0, 1.85era, 6gs, 39ip, 21h, 20bb, 40k... Batters hitting .164 off him and .221 overall.
Career vs. LAD = 0-1, 3.60era, 1g, 5ip, 6h, 2er, 3bb, 4k

The one career start vs. LAD doesn't bother me, he only gave up 2er so if he duplicated that in the game Tuesday, I would like my chances..Maine has been beaten up only 1 time this yr in 12starts, a 5ip-8h-5er performance vs. the Yanks, a much better offense than the Dodgers.

Kuo on the other hand has pitched a grand total of 13innings this yr, started 2 games, both away, and faced Pitt and SD, the #27 and #29 offenses in the league. He has recorded 1 out in Dodger stadium this yr. The price is too cheap to not take the Mets here, I think Maine and the Mets should be more like -135. Mets are 8-4 when Maine pitches as well.

Situational wise, I want to see how the Monday game plays out, which team gets out of the funk first...If the Mets win, good shot I play them again here vs. Kuo. If the Mets lose, really good shot I play them here vs Kuo. I want to see if the Dodgers have any life in their bats as well. Basically I think there is a really good shot the Mets beat Kuo, he is over matched, I just need to see something out of the Mets bats vs. Wolf.

Lean to the Mets-114

Angels -130 / Reds +120:

Last time I bet Escobar, he let me down vs the Orioles but I am ready to board the train again.

Escobar L3 = 2-1, 2.63era, 24ip, 18h, 8bb, 15k
Escobar away = 2-1, 4.76era, 3g, 17ip, 18h, 3bb, 12k.. Batters hitting .265 off him and .227 overall.

Few things I want to note here. Escobar appears to have a shit era on the road but the number is a little misleading. He has only started 3 games on the road so the 2ip-8er game vs. the Mariners really skews his numbers. His other 2 starts came against NYY (7ip, 6h, 1er, 1bb, 8k) and vs. CHW (7.2ip, 4h, 2er, 1bb, 3k). The Angels are 8-3 when he pitches.

Bronson Arroyo, I just don't know what the problem is with this guy but he has been outright terrible, there is no sugar coating it and this price is too cheap to not fade him and the Reds vs. a Superior team.

Arroyo L3 games: 0-3, 11.49era, 15.2ip, 27h, 5bb, 7k
Arroyo at home: 1-2, 7.36era, 5g, 25.2ip, 31h, 13bb, 22k.... Batters hitting .292 off him and .282 overall

Arroyo has faced the Angels in 5games from his days with the RSox...

Anderson = .375 in 8ab, Figgins = .308 in 13ab, Vlad = .333 in 12ab, Kotchman - .444 in 9ab, Matthews = .111 in 9ab, Hillenbrand = .167 in 24ab, Cabrera = .111 in 9ab

The Reds are 3-10 when Arroyo pitches and although they just took a series from the Indians and have won 3 of their last 4, this team is not getting hot though so don't be fooled, they just are not very good at all.

Bullpen wise, advantage goes to Angels.
Home field means nothing here as the Reds are 12-19 at home.
Arroyo has been roughed up by St. Louie, Hous, Pitt, and Wash in 4 consecutive starts.

Angels vs. RHP this yr are batting .282overall, .255 on the road, and .315 in their last 10games.
Reds vs. RHP this yr are batting .252overall, .265 at home, and .254 in their last 10games.

Angels average 5.6runs/game in their last 9 (I took out the 16run game vs. Twins).
Reds average 3.9runs/game in their last 10.

Lastly AL reigns supreme over NL and one of the AL best should take out one of the NL worst here in this game.

Lean to the Angels -130


I very well could be happy playing those two games but I am going to look into the other lines that caught my eyes. Other games and breakdowns to come on the following:

Padres / DRays
A's / Astros
Braves / Twins
BlueJays/ Giants
Cards / Royals
Mariners/ Cubs

Good writeups as usual. Angels definitely look solid. Not quite as confident playing them on the road. Especially after yesterday's loss to the Cardinals and Todd freakin Wellemyer. GL.

current leans, subject to change:

dodgers +
marlins +
mil +

The_Man said:

current leans, subject to change:

dodgers +
marlins +
mil +

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Please tell me why you like the Dodgers, I am very interested to hear this. Seeing your leans, do you only play dogs?

no i play a little of everything.

Tigers -1

This is a game I am playing on the RL/ML.. I feel really confident about it too.

I don't have to go into much detail here, it is a fade of the Brewers in interleague play (2-9 L11) vs. a better team, the brewers on the road, and Suppan in general, a play on the Tigers in interleague play (21-7 L28), along with getting an ace for the Tigers (8-4 when he pitches).

Suppan has given up 4er in 6 of his last 7 starts.
Suppan away: 3-4, 4.17era, 7g, 45.1ip, 49h, 14bb, 22h

Tigers vs. Suppan: Ordonez = .395 in 43ab, IRod = .500 in 12ab, Casey = .333 in 15ab, Guillen = .429 in 7ab, Inge = .357 in 14ab, Infante = .286 in 7ab, Perez = .333 in 18ab.

Brewers are 12-17 on the road (1-7 last 8 road games)
Tigers are 17-12 at home.

Detroit took 2/3 from Brewers last yr in Milk, this yr I am expecting the same or a sweep. Tigers are crushing the ball again and winners of 4 of their last 5. Brewers get steamrolled here

BOL today ETG. Staying away from all of the above for today. Just can't keep going back to the same well day after day hoping there will be water this time. Mets just haven't shown a willingness to get out of their slump and I think the Brewers and Suppan are better than the -170 line gives them credit for. As for LAA, I guess it could be the bad taste from Escobar's last start, plus the fact that Arroyo can be extremely hard to predict at times. Just feel that I have to mix things up a bit after my recent slump. But BOL with these plays. I wouldn't be surprised if I end up kicking myself later tonight for not jumping on these ones.

Jibba said:

BOL today ETG. Staying away from all of the above for today. Just can't keep going back to the same well day after day hoping there will be water this time. Mets just haven't shown a willingness to get out of their slump and I think the Brewers and Suppan are better than the -170 line gives them credit for. As for LAA, I guess it could be the bad taste from Escobar's last start, plus the fact that Arroyo can be extremely hard to predict at times. Just feel that I have to mix things up a bit after my recent slump. But BOL with these plays. I wouldn't be surprised if I end up kicking myself later tonight for not jumping on these ones.

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Thanks Jibba, one thing to consider about Arroyo. I posted this in my thread at the other site so straight copy and paste.



The Reds have literally killed Arroyo's confidence and arm. If he comes out and pitches a gem today, what am I going to do? He gets beat up by St Louie, Hou, Pitt, & Washington in consecutive starts but shuts down the Angels?

Arroyo started the yr fine, was just a victim on run support then after a 8ip-10h-3r-1er-2bb-6k LOSS vs. San Diego where he threw 129pitches he has gone on to get toasted in his next four starts giving up 6,6,8,6 er.

Before the San Diego game he threw 120 and 117 pitches so he stringed together 3 straight starts, all on 5days rest, of an average of 122pitches... Last start he threw 119pitches, imo the Reds are killing his guy and that is why vs. a pretty good lineup he will face some trouble today.

Solid stuff ETG, and it seems perfectly logical. But in my eyes, baseball just hasn't been very logical lately. Either that, or I just haven't been very logical lately. :lol:

I know I havent been posting my record or plays here and just writeups but for anyoen who cares. Below are the 3 games I am on today.

Angels -1
Tigers -1
Mets ML

Jibba said:

Solid stuff ETG, and it seems perfectly logical. But in my eyes, baseball just hasn't been very logical lately. Either that, or I just haven't been very logical lately. :lol:

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My problem lately has been talking myself out of games. I didn't play the Mariners yesterday yet I debated 5 different people on the game.

I went with the #'s today, took out the opinions and came up with 3 plays I feel strong about. If Suppan, Kuo, and Arroyo throw gems today then I will be pretty much speechless because it will only happen when I am on the opposite side. There is no reason that each of them shouldn't give up 4+ runs today and in that case I expect Verlander, Maine, and Escobar to give up less.