3 Pitching Fades Going Foward

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Here is a list of three pitchers that should make for compelling fades going forward.

Brad Penny
Units: +8.26
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Penny has been the most profitable pitcher in the National League year to date. He has was seven of his eight decisions, while his team has won 11 of the 13 games in which he started. His current ERA is more than one and a half runs below his career average, while he has allowed a home run in just one game all year. Many claim that Penny developing a third pitch has allowed for a structural change in his pitching, thus allowing a break out year. With the recent lines books have put in their games and favorable line movement backing him, it is quite apparent the public believes Penny has legitimately changed for the better. However, I am not buying it. This is the same pitcher the produce a 2.90 ERA prior to last years all star break, and a low three ERA prior to the 2004 and 2005 all star break, and then to a nose dive in the second half of the season. His strikeout rate this year is in line with career par, while his control and walk rate is right in line as well. His “stuff” (A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0} is actually below the level in which it was this time last year. Basically, his fast start is predominantly a product of always starting off seasons well and good luck. His Delta-H and Delta-R are both negative for the first time in five years, which shows favorable luck with balls put in play, and being backed by better than average defense. His BABIP has increased four straight seasons, so taking a sudden fall this year may be more of a short term trend. Penny has yet to pitch against a Padres team that has owned him throughout his career, or pitching in Coors Field. He has pitched six out of division national league games, three of them against either the Pirates or Nationals. Penny has always been a sub par day game pitcher, but has been fortunate to pitching in just one day game in thirteen starts this season. His .200 OBA with runners in scoring position is predominantly a byproduct of facing teams that lack clutch hitting, as he has never been terribly effective out of the stretch.
Simply put, Penny has been accustomed to fast starts, but slowdowns have always been followed. He lacks the ideal lineup to make up for his potential regression, forcing any type of slowdown vulnerable to a series of losses. With the respect both books and linesmakers alike have given him, Penny is primed for a negative ROI once his good luck, good defense, and favorable scheduling normalize.

Curt Schilling
Units: +5.60

Schilling has two things working against him going forward. Not only is he one of the most popular pitchers that the public loves to back, but he pitches for a team that is being backed by the public more than any other team in baseball, making an inflated price tag on his starts a sure thing. So far he has been able to get buy with such a pricing disadvantage, as he has been backed by some of the best run support in the league and has pitched better than he has in years. However, one has to doubt both favorable variables will last throughout the season. Schilling’s strike out rate, walk rate, and WHIP are actually worse than last year, where he carried over a .50 higher ERA. Last year, Schilling started the season actually better than this year, yet to a nose dive in the second half, as he has consistently shown signs of wearing down late in seasons as he ages. Opponents hit over .300 against him during the second half of last season. Schilling’s “stuff” has progressively gone down hill since 2000, so expecting him to sustain career norm numbers may not be the best estimation. His negative 7 Delta-R shows he has been a good luck pitcher year to date. 36% of his innings pitched this year are considered to be against teams that have an above average line, a low percentage for a pitcher pitching in the AL East. In those innings, Schilling has produced a pedestrian 4.45 ERA. With an average lay price of -166 in games other than the Yankees, Schillings team will have to win more than 62% of the time just to break even, a hard feat to accomplish once his luck wears off, and his second half regression comes into play.



Danny Haren
With an average lay price of -155 in his last nine games while being backed by arguably the worst lineup in baseball, it is safe to say the books and the public alike consider Haren one of the best pitchers in the league. His numbers this year should leave no doubt that he is a top tier pitcher. But that is not to say, his number will regress at a faster rate than his market price, making him a prime target of a negative ROI going forward. His 1.58 ERA and .86 WHIP are mind boggling, but his PECOTA intrinsic ERA of 4.09 and WHIP of 1.28 are signs he is pitching well over his head. His negative Delta-H has increased at a faster rate than his “stuff” has increased, evidence that his hot start is more of a product of luck than skill. Six of his 14 starts have been against the Giants, Devil Rays and Royals, making soft scheduling a factor as well. Last year, Haren struggled more against the Tigers, Indians, and Blue Jays more than any other team in the league, and has yet to face any of these teams year to date. Haren’s run support (which is not a factor for his high ROI this year) has been 50% higher than the A’s mean run support. Haren started the season very solid last year as well, but was actually one of the biggest disappointments in baseball the second half of last year, accumulating a near five ERA. With the high price he now carries coupled with a lack of expect run support going forward, Haren has little margin of error, which past history shows that is not enough error to work with.
 

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Agree on Schilling but would not feel confident fading Penny or Haren. Especially Haren.
 

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BG, would you fade Penny tomorrow then or do you just post this stuff and never reply

No, I valued the Dodgers tommorrow at -138, and they just opened at -140, so Penny is efficiently priced tommorrow in my opinion. His overvalued bias is offset by books adjusting for the public anticipation of overreacting to Sosa's fast start and high price demand elasticity for the Mets in general.
 

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BG You`re Really Missed!!!

Giving the same analysis, take a look @ Johan. It seems to me his game is not as it was?
 

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No, I valued the Dodgers tommorrow at -138, and they just opened at -140, so Penny is efficiently priced tommorrow in my opinion. His overvalued bias is offset by books adjusting for the public anticipation of overreacting to Sosa's fast start and high price demand elasticity for the Mets in general.


same here, i had it at Dodgers -135 so that line looks about right if you ask me
 

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Pitchers I like to fade are ones who switched leagues (preferably to the NL) and are getting a second look from hitters. Lilly has been great to fade.
 

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Giving the same analysis, take a look @ Johan. It seems to me his game is not as it was?


First, let me say that ESPN ( the bible for squares) is blowing Santana’s “woes” way out of proportion, as almost all his Sabermetric indicators this year are right in line with past years, showing that he is still as dominant as any other pitcher in the league. Having said that, I have always thought he is a tad overrated from a general recognition standpoint, and probably consistently the most overvalued pitcher in baseball from a handicapping standpoint. The fact ESPN thinks he is a much less effective pitcher is based on his surface numbers such as ERA and WHIP being down, and they are automatically assuming that he is not as effective compared to prior years. In actuality he is, but his Deltas have normalized this year, while the last couple of years, they were one of the highest in the league, showing that he was a very lucky pitcher. The thing that makes Santana a compelling fade going forward is the fact that he doesn’t get ideal run support that you would like when laying such a rich price. You could get your money’s worth with one of his better pitching performances, and still lose due to his lack of run support. Not only is he backed by a poor lineup who has only managed more than three runs in 30% of his starts this year, but he also has a case of “aceitis” where his lineup actually tries too hard to score when he is on the mound, a variable that is counterproductive. Expect him to put forth very similar numbers the rest of the way out, while his negative ROI should decrease a bit once some of his public backers back off for the fear of lack of profit potential.
 

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While there are certain pitchers I like to fade and have been quite a bit this year (Jackson, Fossum, Eaton, others were cash cows earlier), alot just depends on if you find favorable matchups. Picking your spots = most important?


True, I would not reccommend fading any pitcher each and every start, as picking your spots is prudent. Finding favorable matchups that are not fully reflected in the market price is essential.
 

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BG, the pitchers with BABIP rates .260 and below, will they regress throughout the year. I'm trying to figure out how to use BABIP when capping games. Thax
 

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BG, the pitchers with BABIP rates .260 and below, will they regress throughout the year. I'm trying to figure out how to use BABIP when capping games. Thax


Good question. More and more Saber guys are starting to believe that abnormally low BABIP is a product of luck and good defense than pitching skill. So once could make a case that pitchers with low BABIP are the best candidates to witness regression. I tend to look deeper, and look at the well hit ball ratio, and see any large disparities between that number and BABIP. For instance, a pithcer with a BABIP of .260 and a low well hit ball ratio might not see some regression, as his low BABIP may be more of a product of good pitching. However, if a pitcher is getting smacked around the field and still managing a low BABIP, we have a lucky pithcer that is more than likely being mispriced.
 

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Johan is the ultimate fade he has already screwed 2 of my parlays and the last the nats were +360 He has to be -money if you have taken him all year and the twins just haven't played well enough when he has pitched
 

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Buffett, can you give me your analysis for the Cleveland game tonight? I really like them and was going to play them strong.
 

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Buffett, can you give me your analysis for the Cleveland game tonight? I really like them and was going to play them strong.


Indians Fair Value: -126 Consider Betting Price: -113
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I don’t like how Lee has pitched at all since his gem against the Angels. He has been missing his location consistently in recent starts, which does not bode well for a finesse pitcher that can not get away with location mistakes. His fly ball ratio is up, and has allowed eight home runs in his last four starts, which is the last thing you want against a Marlins lineup. That said, I do like his pitching style against a young, impatient lineup like the Marlins. He is also working behind a generous strike zone, which is a huge asset for his style of pitching. Also working in his favor is the fact Olivo is out, who is hitting nearly .360 against southpaws, as opposed to the .214 of his replacement.
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There is good evidence Kim may be in for a long day. He is a very streaky pitcher and looked awful in his last start. He has become a batting practice pitcher for left handed hitters over the last three years, which does not bode well for him against the most potent lineup in baseball from the left side. They will throw six left handed hitters at him today with Rouse playing second. The front end of the Marlins bullpen has been struggling lately and is overmatched by this lineup, which should allow the Indians to have scoring opportunities even once Kim leaves.
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The biggest concern in this game for Indians backers is Lee’s recent form which suggest he is not pitching healthy. This concern should be offset by the potential favorable run support and being backed by a well rested bullpen. Having said that, even though they are slightly under priced (which is rare for this team), they are not priced low enough for me to pull the trigger.
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Good luck.
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