Here is a list of three pitchers that should make for compelling fades going forward.
Brad Penny
Units: +8.26
Comment:
Penny has been the most profitable pitcher in the National League year to date. He has was seven of his eight decisions, while his team has won 11 of the 13 games in which he started. His current ERA is more than one and a half runs below his career average, while he has allowed a home run in just one game all year. Many claim that Penny developing a third pitch has allowed for a structural change in his pitching, thus allowing a break out year. With the recent lines books have put in their games and favorable line movement backing him, it is quite apparent the public believes Penny has legitimately changed for the better. However, I am not buying it. This is the same pitcher the produce a 2.90 ERA prior to last years all star break, and a low three ERA prior to the 2004 and 2005 all star break, and then to a nose dive in the second half of the season. His strikeout rate this year is in line with career par, while his control and walk rate is right in line as well. His “stuff” (A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0} is actually below the level in which it was this time last year. Basically, his fast start is predominantly a product of always starting off seasons well and good luck. His Delta-H and Delta-R are both negative for the first time in five years, which shows favorable luck with balls put in play, and being backed by better than average defense. His BABIP has increased four straight seasons, so taking a sudden fall this year may be more of a short term trend. Penny has yet to pitch against a Padres team that has owned him throughout his career, or pitching in Coors Field. He has pitched six out of division national league games, three of them against either the Pirates or Nationals. Penny has always been a sub par day game pitcher, but has been fortunate to pitching in just one day game in thirteen starts this season. His .200 OBA with runners in scoring position is predominantly a byproduct of facing teams that lack clutch hitting, as he has never been terribly effective out of the stretch.
Simply put, Penny has been accustomed to fast starts, but slowdowns have always been followed. He lacks the ideal lineup to make up for his potential regression, forcing any type of slowdown vulnerable to a series of losses. With the respect both books and linesmakers alike have given him, Penny is primed for a negative ROI once his good luck, good defense, and favorable scheduling normalize.
Curt Schilling
Units: +5.60
Schilling has two things working against him going forward. Not only is he one of the most popular pitchers that the public loves to back, but he pitches for a team that is being backed by the public more than any other team in baseball, making an inflated price tag on his starts a sure thing. So far he has been able to get buy with such a pricing disadvantage, as he has been backed by some of the best run support in the league and has pitched better than he has in years. However, one has to doubt both favorable variables will last throughout the season. Schilling’s strike out rate, walk rate, and WHIP are actually worse than last year, where he carried over a .50 higher ERA. Last year, Schilling started the season actually better than this year, yet to a nose dive in the second half, as he has consistently shown signs of wearing down late in seasons as he ages. Opponents hit over .300 against him during the second half of last season. Schilling’s “stuff” has progressively gone down hill since 2000, so expecting him to sustain career norm numbers may not be the best estimation. His negative 7 Delta-R shows he has been a good luck pitcher year to date. 36% of his innings pitched this year are considered to be against teams that have an above average line, a low percentage for a pitcher pitching in the AL East. In those innings, Schilling has produced a pedestrian 4.45 ERA. With an average lay price of -166 in games other than the Yankees, Schillings team will have to win more than 62% of the time just to break even, a hard feat to accomplish once his luck wears off, and his second half regression comes into play.
Danny Haren
With an average lay price of -155 in his last nine games while being backed by arguably the worst lineup in baseball, it is safe to say the books and the public alike consider Haren one of the best pitchers in the league. His numbers this year should leave no doubt that he is a top tier pitcher. But that is not to say, his number will regress at a faster rate than his market price, making him a prime target of a negative ROI going forward. His 1.58 ERA and .86 WHIP are mind boggling, but his PECOTA intrinsic ERA of 4.09 and WHIP of 1.28 are signs he is pitching well over his head. His negative Delta-H has increased at a faster rate than his “stuff” has increased, evidence that his hot start is more of a product of luck than skill. Six of his 14 starts have been against the Giants, Devil Rays and Royals, making soft scheduling a factor as well. Last year, Haren struggled more against the Tigers, Indians, and Blue Jays more than any other team in the league, and has yet to face any of these teams year to date. Haren’s run support (which is not a factor for his high ROI this year) has been 50% higher than the A’s mean run support. Haren started the season very solid last year as well, but was actually one of the biggest disappointments in baseball the second half of last year, accumulating a near five ERA. With the high price he now carries coupled with a lack of expect run support going forward, Haren has little margin of error, which past history shows that is not enough error to work with.