Jibba's Tuesday MLB

Jibba · Jun 12, 2007

Money Lines:

Favorites: 153-99 for +13.33 units
Underdogs: 60-66 for +12.8 units
Total: 213-165 for for +26.13 units

Totals: 5-1 for 5.13 units

Run Lines: 13-15 for -0.04 units

Parlays: 1-3 for -2.97 units

_______________________________________________________

I'll update my record when I get the chance. Went 0-3 yesterday as the slump that won't end continued.

Indians -137: 1.37 units to win 1.

Diamondbacks +158: 1 unit to win 1.58.

Nationals +162: 1 unit to win 1.62.

Padres +118: 1 unit to win 1.18.

Athletics +153: 1 unit to win 1.53.

Cardinals -109: 1.1 units to win 1.

I also like the Mets and Bluejays, but will stay off of those two. The Mets have just been awful and I can't continue putting money on them until they get their acts together. The Bluejays seem like a solid play as well, but after being burned by AJ last weekend, I can't back him quite yet either.

And just as a note, I told myself when my current slump began that if I went below +20 units on my money line plays, that I would take an extended break and/or just start following somebody until I get things turned around. After having been at +50 units when the slump began, it's getting very close to that point unfortunately. That said, I feel great about this card. But I wouldn't blame people for blindly fading me. BOL to everyone tonight.

silver7 · Jun 12, 2007

Maybe It`s Because You & I Have Had

a lot of the same pics over the last 10 days, but my BR has followed almost the same path. Up 48U and now + 22. No matter what I`ve tried it`s not working. A short hiatus may be in order. As usual I love todays card. The one I really like is Verlander vs that slumping Brewers LU. But I`ve had that feeling before. BOL my friend let`s hope it beaks soon.

Jibba · Jun 12, 2007

silver7 said:
a lot of the same pics over the last 10 days, but my BR has followed almost the same path. Up 48U and now + 22. No matter what I`ve tried it`s not working. A short hiatus may be in order. As usual I love todays card. The one I really like is Verlander vs that slumping Brewers LU. But I`ve had that feeling before. BOL my friend let`s hope it beaks soon.

Yeah, I've stayed away from a couple that seemed too good. Mets line seems to be very low considering how good a team they are, but their play lately has been awful. I figure it can only be so long before they bounce back, but I've said that for too long already. Tigers would appear to be a very solid play, but it's too much juice for me to pay. Suppan is no pushover and the Brewers are much better than they've played lately, so I just stayed away. Hope things turn around for you silver. BOL.

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 12, 2007

Jibba - Hang in there bro.

What about a -1 play on the Tigers today. Seriously they should pound the Brewers today.

You have a Brewer team who is (2-9 L11) in interleague play.
Brewers on the road (12-17) and (1-7 L8).
Tigers who eat up interleague play (21-7 L28),
Verlander on the mound at 6-2 and the Tigers win when he pitches (8-4).
Suppan has given up 4er in 6 of his last 7 starts.
Suppan away: 3-4, 4.17era, 7g, 45.1ip, 49h, 14bb, 22h

Tigers vs. Suppan: Ordonez = .395 in 43ab, IRod = .500 in 12ab, Casey = .333 in 15ab, Guillen = .429 in 7ab, Inge = .357 in 14ab, Infante = .286 in 7ab, Perez = .333 in 18ab.

I am on the Mets tonight simply because Kuo is outmatched and the price is too good to turn down. I watched the whole game last night and it was fustrating but Kuo has recorded 1 out in Dodger stadium this yr, he has started against 2 of the weakest offenses in baseball, if the Mets can't get to him than I will be speechless and I won't consider backing them for a while because they will be getting smoaked this wkend vs. the Yankees and they just have some tough series coming up so its time to get a win.

Jibba · Jun 12, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Jibba - Hang in there bro.

What about a -1 play on the Tigers today. Seriously they should pound the Brewers today.

You have a Brewer team who is (2-9 L11) in interleague play.
Brewers on the road (12-17) and (1-7 L8).
Tigers who eat up interleague play (21-7 L28),
Verlander on the mound at 6-2 and the Tigers win when he pitches (8-4).
Suppan has given up 4er in 6 of his last 7 starts.
Suppan away: 3-4, 4.17era, 7g, 45.1ip, 49h, 14bb, 22h

Tigers vs. Suppan: Ordonez = .395 in 43ab, IRod = .500 in 12ab, Casey = .333 in 15ab, Guillen = .429 in 7ab, Inge = .357 in 14ab, Infante = .286 in 7ab, Perez = .333 in 18ab.

I am on the Mets tonight simply because Kuo is outmatched and the price is too good to turn down. I watched the whole game last night and it was fustrating but Kuo has recorded 1 out in Dodger stadium this yr, he has started against 2 of the weakest offenses in baseball, if the Mets can't get to him than I will be speechless and I won't consider backing them for a while because they will be getting smoaked this wkend vs. the Yankees and they just have some tough series coming up so its time to get a win.

I might be playing a bit scared these days. Not sure. But these plays are the exact types I've been playing day in and day out during my horrible stretch. I keep telling myself that these teams just have to start pulling out games exactly like the ones we have tonight . . . where everything points in one direction. And like you said . . . some of the prices just keep seeming too good to turn down. But then I go 0-3 or 1-5 and scratch my head wondering where I went wrong.

The thing with the Tigers game is that I just don't think the Brewers and Suppan are so bad that it justifies this line. His stats, standing next to Verlander's, just don't point to a line of -170 in my eyes. Or assuming they do (in conjuncture with the Brewers' struggles of late), then I'm not sure there's actually value in that number (generally I try to look for 15 to 20 cents worth of value in a line).

Regarding Kuo, it's not worth all that much, but keep in mind how solid he looked in his only career start against the Mets. And Maine isn't as lights out lately as he was early on this season. I'm not sure if he really is that much better on the road, or if the road numbers just haven't caught up to him yet because of more home starts lately than road starts. And with the way NY has been playing, I just told myself I've had enough of this team until they start playing like they should be.

I ended up with the card I have based purely on value today (at least what I see as value). Teams like Baltimore and Houston just shouldn't be getting that much respect IMO. I know they've both got solid starters going, but not so much so that they should be around -160. I'm hoping this is the start of a nice comeback for me. Guess we'll see tonight. BOL.

finman13 · Jun 12, 2007

i have had trouble lately too. back at it again tonight
actually agree with all your plays jibba..maybe that is not a good thing since we are both struggling. key plays for me are the indians, mets and angels. i see value in the rockies as well. think the astros, dbacks and mariners are live dogs as well. no time for writeups. lean on the cavs tonight as i think they win tonight and then lose the next 2. gl

GreenMachine+ · Jun 12, 2007

Good Luck Jibba, looks like a great card, on alot of them with you. GL!

Jibba · Jun 12, 2007

finman13 said:
i have had trouble lately too. back at it again tonight
actually agree with all your plays jibba..maybe that is not a good thing since we are both struggling. key plays for me are the indians, mets and angels. i see value in the rockies as well. think the astros, dbacks and mariners are live dogs as well. no time for writeups. lean on the cavs tonight as i think they win tonight and then lose the next 2. gl

Thanks Fin. Hope things turn around for you sooner rather than later. Like the Mets and Angels too, but just couldn't pull the trigger.

Jibba · Jun 12, 2007

Green Machine said:
Good Luck Jibba, looks like a great card, on alot of them with you. GL!

Is it me, or have you been away for a bit? If so, welcome back and BOL on the card tonight man.

GreenMachine+ · Jun 12, 2007

Thanks Jibba, been away for a couple of weeks to regroup and get re-energized after an awful streak.

1wildturkey · Jun 12, 2007

GL with those piks and glad you like my cards

ChestRockwell · Jun 12, 2007

Hang in there Jibs - i think your record along with a lot of other people's would be a whole lot better over the last 10 days if it were not for all of those crazy 9th inning comebacks we've suffered. i was on the winning end of one, the nats win on a wild pitch. Other than that, 7 or 8 have gone against me. i don't how many exactly, but you were on the losing end also.

gabbana · Jun 12, 2007

good luck today jibba..also on some of yours.

BigCat · Jun 12, 2007

Good Luck Jibba break out of that slump tonight.

METFAN · Jun 12, 2007

GRAB THE METS and ANGELS...GO FOR THE GREEN!!!!!!!

I THOUGHT YOU WERE GOING TO COME BACK ON CLEVE YESTERDAY.

HOW DO THE RED SOX LOOK TONIGHT? RAINING THERE?

Jibba · Jun 12, 2007

METFAN said:
GRAB THE METS and ANGELS...GO FOR THE GREEN!!!!!!!

I THOUGHT YOU WERE GOING TO COME BACK ON CLEVE YESTERDAY.

HOW DO THE RED SOX LOOK TONIGHT? RAINING THERE?

I know I'll probably kick myself, but I'm gonna stick with my guns and stay away from those two. Sox look good tonight though. Love that Terry finally went and put Pedroia at the top of the lineup. I think it may be a spark this team needs, since they generally have 2 standard outs before Ortiz and Manny. He also has Youk in the 2 spot, which makes me feel a hell of a lot better about the offense than I do with Lugo and Crisp. They will be playing it too. Only quick showers here and there, but looks like clear skies now. BOL tonight.

Oh, and as for Cleveland, I guess I did get a little glimmer of hope myself in the bottom of the 9th with 2 on. But I (Cleveland) didn't deserve to win that game.

METFAN · Jun 12, 2007

Well that is true about last night's game , how many did we lose that we didn't deserve because of some idiot bullpen pitcher.

Hope the Sox stay with that lineup...I find Coco Crisp to be a waste of money.Lugo doesn't bother me either way.

Be aware the Yankees look like they are ready for a big roll!!!!!!!!!!!

Jibba · Jun 12, 2007

Well unfortunately I stay away from the most obvious play of the day (IMO) for the first time in a week, and it finally wins. And in convincing fashion with Verlander. Anyway, tried to get away from some bad trends I had been falling into lately, but I got rid of the the wrong ones. For some reason I thought Cleveland might remember they're an offensive based team tonight. And I thought that San Diego's bullpen wouldn't blow it for a 4th straight game. I also thought TB wouldn't screw me over with a big inning ala the 5 run lead in the 9th last week. Unfortunately, they were the ones with the big inning(s) this time around.

Anyway, apparently KC is now the powerhouse in the AL Central and Cleveland can't score for shit. The Padres are dropping like a rock, and my night is following suit. Oakland had the lead, and as has happened quite a bit lately, they couldn't hold it. Fortunately there's plenty of time left in that one. Arizona is a loss, as they can't score. The Nats actually held on for the win so it won't be another O-fer tonight, but unfortunately a possibility for 1-5, which would (I think) put me below my drop dead point of +20 units. Hoping for the best, and since I've been second guessing this all day long, I might as well go with it.

Mets -119: 1.19 units to win 1.

finman13 · Jun 13, 2007

i should literally throw darts at mlb teams on a dartboard. id have more success. narrowed my plays to five. dbacks who score one run, the cards who score one run and get blown out by the royals, the indians who get shutout and the angels who score a whopping 3 runs off a pitcher in bad form and also proceed have their bully blow it. the real kicker is escobar strikes out 14 batters in 6 innings. had the mets late and they lit up the scoreboard with ONE RUN... unreal. of course i decided to stay away from the tigers, who get a no hitter as well as one of my live dogs in the mariners. had leans on the phillies and the pirates but stayed away.

so lets add up the totals. five teams i bet on score a total of 5 FUCKING RUNS. what the hell are the odds on that one folks? almost every night of the year if you bet on 5 teams, at least one of them would score 5 by themselves.

im officially hanging it up for this season. i may check back occasionally and see how you guys are doing.