I'm going to try posting a few topics on NFL betting that may help people assess the game a bit differently and I'll start with Turnovers. It says a lot when you read Threads in the Baseball Forum that always have the Mathmatical reasoning behind their Selections in the context of 9 Innings, X Pitchers, Walking, Bunts, Stealing Etc, while NFL bettors have an approach of a fluid game with many twists.Truth is the NFL is no different to the others in its only a Game made up of Statistics and The books will play them Stats at +Vig and everyone will say how unbelievably sharp those Books are.
You forever hear how Turnovers affect the outcome of a Football Game by commentators and unforeseeing Jokers, However, turnovers are a self imposed Dilemma on the Gamblers thoughts. I'm going to tell the TRUTH on Turnovers so when it happens in a Game you can say "Fuck, it happens but its not as bad as that bollocks on the TV is saying" Lets go through a Game methodcally like those Baseball Jokers do and assess the huge problem of your Team turning the Ball over.
The Average Team in the NFL has 12.5 Drives a Game and with a 15% turnover percentage means under 2 T/Os a Game. When you consider only 9% of those get run back for a TD, that leaves a lot of T/Os going for a song. If you roughly say run-backs in a 100 T/Os equate to 10% and 70 Pts, that leaves 90 Drives. While Turnovers outside either Teams Red Zones can be deemed as good as Punts then its inside the 20 Yard line that makes up the Difference. Here We find Teams reaching the Red Zone 25% of the Time, 57% Maximum TD scoring chance and 33 % FG chance. All this equates to a Turnover on average costing about 1.5 Points, somewhat shorter than the square would think.
So, once you've accepted a Turnover equates to 1.5 Points, you can get rid of the stigma in your betting concerning the importance of Turnovers. However, We all want to factor in such things as Turnovers in our betting to get the cutting edge in your mind over the books type thinking so what I suggest is like I do and call Turnovers a lean in your betting in somuch that if the Turnover lean is against you then be wary. The Turnover Percentage can be found quite easily on most Stat Sites, just make up a Percentage between the Two and you have your Lean. I will be posting T/O leans along with the public lean ( not the joker wagerline one) along with my spreads come the season but hopefully by then I've explained the different reasoning behind each factor.
I am open to criticism on any of my views( except My Indian cooking) as thats what makes the world go by. Hopefully after this is well analysed we can move on to Public Plays theory. :thumbsup:
You forever hear how Turnovers affect the outcome of a Football Game by commentators and unforeseeing Jokers, However, turnovers are a self imposed Dilemma on the Gamblers thoughts. I'm going to tell the TRUTH on Turnovers so when it happens in a Game you can say "Fuck, it happens but its not as bad as that bollocks on the TV is saying" Lets go through a Game methodcally like those Baseball Jokers do and assess the huge problem of your Team turning the Ball over.
The Average Team in the NFL has 12.5 Drives a Game and with a 15% turnover percentage means under 2 T/Os a Game. When you consider only 9% of those get run back for a TD, that leaves a lot of T/Os going for a song. If you roughly say run-backs in a 100 T/Os equate to 10% and 70 Pts, that leaves 90 Drives. While Turnovers outside either Teams Red Zones can be deemed as good as Punts then its inside the 20 Yard line that makes up the Difference. Here We find Teams reaching the Red Zone 25% of the Time, 57% Maximum TD scoring chance and 33 % FG chance. All this equates to a Turnover on average costing about 1.5 Points, somewhat shorter than the square would think.
So, once you've accepted a Turnover equates to 1.5 Points, you can get rid of the stigma in your betting concerning the importance of Turnovers. However, We all want to factor in such things as Turnovers in our betting to get the cutting edge in your mind over the books type thinking so what I suggest is like I do and call Turnovers a lean in your betting in somuch that if the Turnover lean is against you then be wary. The Turnover Percentage can be found quite easily on most Stat Sites, just make up a Percentage between the Two and you have your Lean. I will be posting T/O leans along with the public lean ( not the joker wagerline one) along with my spreads come the season but hopefully by then I've explained the different reasoning behind each factor.
I am open to criticism on any of my views( except My Indian cooking) as thats what makes the world go by. Hopefully after this is well analysed we can move on to Public Plays theory. :thumbsup:
