ATP Picks 6-13-07

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1. Washington +1.5 (-145)

Usually I dont like taking this team or matt chico but between the two of them of late this is a good pick. Chico has been deceptively sharp lately where the opposition has managed 3, 3 and 2 runs total in his games, managing three straght unders. Washington has been playing incredible ball for a team that doesnt look like it should win 70 games with its talent but they are getting it done of late taking 2 of 3 from the twins in minnesota and the opener against baltimore with all of their starting pitchers on the DL. The thing that tips the scales on this game at least for the +1.5 is that over the last ten games between these two teams if given a run and a half in each washington would have gone 9-1 including 5-5 straight up. It seems that when they lose its by a run. While Washington has been playing great for themselves baltimore has been on a slide losing 8 of their last ten and are only 1-3 at home vs the national league. Trachsel has been alright this season but hes not daniel cabrera or eric bedard someone that might concern me when it comes to scoring runs so Ill take the pts here.

290/200

2. NYY -1.5 -115

New York Post reads: "STRAYING POWER, Yanks on 9-2 tear since A-Rod's escapades." That before they beat up on brandon webb arguably a Cy Yound candidate making them 10-2 since then and winners of 7 straight. The yanks are 6-1 over their last 7 games at home vs arizona and arizona is sliding going only 1-4 over their last 4 games. Mussina is definitely not a lock anymore with his age creeping up on him but with the way the yanks offense inparticular A-rod and Abreu heating up it may not matter how bad mussina is. Neither pitcher has faced the opponent since 2002 so those stats are a wash, as much as mussina has slipped it seems that livan hernandez has gone down much the same, he still holds a sub 4 ERA and 5-3 record but his stuff is not the same. For the run and a half I look at arizona scoring 16 runs over their last 5 games while the yanks are piling on the runs at 41. Any kind of similar performance and the yanks win this by 2+. Mussina's last outing was superb going 6 strong vs the chisox allowing only one run, ride the yanks until they lose.

230/200

3. CLE/FLO OVER 9.5 -125

Honestly thought for a while that florida was the play here with all of the wins they have when kim goes out, but its just a matter of time before the tribe gets out of this slump and a lot of little things add up to this being a high scoring affair. Lee comes into this with a 6+ ERA and Kim a 5.7ERA. The tribe has lost at least three in a row when Lee pitches while Florida has won when kim pitches he hasnt been sharp lately especially down in tampa where he could only manage two innings. Carmona and Olsen are miles better than these pitchers and the bats should respond, I also notice that the indians dont have a listed pitcher for tommorrow putting more importance on them doing well tonight with Willis going tommorrow for the Fish. The tribe have been scoring a lot of runs every other game, the last game was 0 runs the game before 7 before that 0 and before that 8, so ill hope the pattern continues. The starters for cleveland have been following the same pattern when it comes to innings so lets see lots of bullpen action tonight. The tribe is 3rd in the AL in scoring at 5.4 runs per game and the Marlins are 2nd in the NL in runs at 4.9 per game. These two are way ahead on the over under totals: 35-27-1 and 35-29-1. You just dont hold these offenses down for long.

125/100

4. Boston -270

Schilling is simply pitching too well for colorodo to handle right now, and even if he were not as good as he has been the offense should handle josh fogg who is 1-5 with a 5+ ERA. Colorodos pen is rested but when bostons pen is rested like it is its like clockwork, give it to schilling, hand it to almost anyone in the 7th leading to okajima and papelbon close the door. I dont see any combination of colorodo pitchers that can do that vs this offense, even at a terrible line it seems too easy in this spot. Boston is 5-2 vs the NL this year and though colorodo and florida are the only two NL teams with an all-time interleague winning record this shoudl not help their total this year as they currently stand at 3-4 winning two of those three vs a struggling baltimore club. Schilling vs Fogg, anyone on boston vs Fogg, you tell me. Tempted at the run and a half if boston did anything last night vs Cook.

270/200
 

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5. Mets/Dodgers OVER 7.5

A lot of things add up to this staying under based on how sosa and penny have pitched, the fact that the mets are slumping and that the dodger offense is not one of the better run producing teams in the league. All that being said with sosa at 6-1 vs a 2.6 ERA, I dont buy it and I think hes due to get rocked around a little, remembering his time in atlanta I just cant shake that. Im also concerned for the Mets that their starters are hurting them in the innings department maine, el duque, and perez going 5 and glavine going only 4 puts a lot of pressure on a guy that could easily become a basketcase when rattled. Everything Ive mentioned points to LA but I look at Pennys career vs the mets and even though they dont always score a lot against them they seem to produce a lot of hits and at some point those hits will plate runs and a 7.5 total seems really obtainable giveing these conditions. His only start of '07 vs the mets saw him go 5 innings surrendering 10 hits and 7 runs.

110/100 OVER 7.5
 

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6. Seattle +121

The cubs are just a bundle of inconsistency, Marshall has been dominant since coming back this year going 2-2 with a 2.08 ERA, allowing 2 runs or less in all 4, the problem is that his club has only gotten him 2 wins out of 4 quality starts like that and those games were against atlanta twice who struggles against lefties, a young florida team and a poor hitting SD team, tonight he meets the hottest team in baseball in Seatte who is 4-0 over their last ten games against starting lefties and 13-3 vs them on the season, an absolute unreal record. Batista hasnt been all that good based on his ERA but he has put his team in position to win games and that can be done against the cubs when they dont show up to play. The M's have won 9 of their last 10 and are 5-2 vs the NL this season, as a dog in this spot its hard to pass up.


100/121
 

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