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Thread: My Automated MLB System - Download - Everyone welcome

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  1. #1 My Automated MLB System - Download - Everyone welcome 
    UF. Champion U. Boxslayer's Avatar
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    This is "completed" but it's really in it's beginning stages. Maybe we can make a forum tweak to it.



    The thing with systems, in my opinion, is over time is when they are useful. It has to be tracked mercilessly, and we have to tweak this thing to no end and get this thing to get close to the betting lines as possible. Then we'll be able to see value. Shit, even if this system goes 1-20, thats beautiful, and it will be a public play fade system. As long as it shows some sort of trend by identifying teams to play or teams not to play.

    Right now, it can relate to betting line by subtracting the difference between the two teams power rankings that are playing each other, and then adding 100.

    So if a team is 100 points favored over another.....they are a -200 fave.

    We have to establish guidelines for when something should be a play or when it shouldnt be a play.

    Any suggestions welcome.

    http://www.4shared.com/file/17853852...lb_system.html
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  2. #2  
    UF. Champion U. Boxslayer's Avatar
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    Now, for whatever reason only certain sections are updating the web stats automatically.

    If you are not familiar with Excel, I wouldnt even bother with this system. The more excel knowledge you have, the better u will be.

    When everything is set in stone, I will create a macro which will do all of this automatically when you open the document. For right now, you have to grab the data off the internet, and then realphabetize the lists.

    1. You have to go to the "WQ-Overall" (Web Query - Overall) tab or worksheet within that Excel document.

    2. Go to each of the 8 or 9 major groups of stats where it has the year 2007 in ROW 2. Click on that cell (Cells A2, Q2, AG2, etc), right click and hit "Refresh Data".

    It will now go to the web and grab all of the latest stats. Do that for each one. You have to right click and hit "refresh data" about 9 times overall.

    3. You have to realphabetize each set of lists to ensure each teams data is not mixing with others now since the data has refreshed. To do this:

    Click on each Translation tab. (Translation Overall, Translation Home, away etc.)

    4. Alphabetize each list.

    To do that, highlight rows 3-32 (from Arizona to Washington). With those rows highlighted (data is selcetd)...Click on:

    Data>Sort> By COLUMN A (Ascending).

    This will alphabetize the list. Do that for each translation tab. (The only one that has pitchers data to alphabetize is on Translation Overall worksheet, rows 38-67.)

    5. Input the starting pitchers, whether the team is home or away and if they are facing a lefty or righty. I will be adjusting the system to put each pitcher's arm (lefty or righty) so that doesnt have to be inputted anymore, it will recognize which pitcher that you typed in and input his arm.

    When you input the pitcher, it will look up his ranking and adjust the power ranking. When you type in home or away, it will adjust to how that team performs home/away. etc.

    I will also find a way to import schedules, so we can see the power rankings without looking at each team.
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  3. #3  
    RX Phenom Shifty Mac's Avatar
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    thanks again, ima take a long look at it, see hwat we can do...

    can u explain how it works a little, if a play is a play or not compared to the line
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  4. #4  
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    The past few days I have tweaked things so the lines match the lines the book come out with. The best way was the 100-300 point scale.

    I did this because 100 is EVEN money in the moneyline world. And 300 is usually as big as a favorite as it gets.

    So far, my lines have matched the lines that the books have. Some lines have a difference or show value. That the lines should be closer, or further.

    Those plays were hitting pretty good as I tweaked. Of course, 1st play I posted was a loser with Toronto losing 4-3 to SF the other night.

    If a line is Braves -110 over Florida Marlins

    the braves power ranking on my system is usually 10 points difference, which directly correlates to the betting line.

    So it would be something like Braves 180 power ranking. Marlins 170. You know that line looks good. But if the Marlins power ranking with the pitcher you typed in is 200, and the Braves is 150. My system is telling you the Marlins should be -150. (50 point difference + 100).

    We need to tweak and tweak and adjust and adjust to get these things right.
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  5. #5  
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    i have alphabatized and sorted everything...now what the eff do i do...im confused..what do i input and/or where do i do it?
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  6. #6  
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    thats all of the behind the scenes stuff

    there is the main page....."POWER RANKINGS"

    Thats the user interface.

    After you sort everything behind the scenes....you live on the power rankings main page. Page 1. That drives everything.

    Now that interleague has hit, and we have some major discrepencies...I already see a major adjustment that I need to make, and thats to increase my scale from 100-300....to 100-400 to adjust to these discrepencies a little more. These rankings need to be fixed. Still a lot of work to do I am realizing.
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  7. #7  
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    ya i understand that...

    but once i am done with alphabetizing and shit, on the power rankings page what do i do...maybe im a bit slow....do i type in whose playing who or just refresh the power rankings, then compare them to the 2 teams playing each other, then compare that to the live line? thanks for the help box
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  8. #8  
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    after you refresh and alphabetize (you have to do that now, I will automate that so bear with me)....

    once you do all of that...you go to the power rankings page.

    You fill in the details. You have to fill in all of the starting pitchers, home or away and lefty righty. Then you are done, all of the teams will have a power ranking.

    That gives each team a final power ranking.

    I type all of the teams/matchups on the bottom, then reference them.

    Also, if a pitcher is not found on the list, it gives him the closest pitchers ranking. I have fixed that in my latest copy.

    This is a work in progress.
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  9. #9  
    "Here we go again" Say Hey Kid's Avatar
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    thanks *********
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  10. #10  
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    ok, on the main page... the power rankings and the power ranking for pitchers says N/A... is it supposed to say that... i type in lefty, home, and byrd throwing and it still says N/A
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  11. #11  
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    spelling is very very very very important

    it is looking up an exact match on another page

    for lefty righty

    you dont type in "lefty"

    you type "L"

    for Byrd, you have to type "Paul Byrd" full name

    for home and away you have to type "Home" or "Away"

    im almost done with the latest copy which has near spot on to the books lines
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  12. #12  
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    ya i did all that, and still no power rankings for either, just both columns say N/A
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  13. #13  
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    not sure if i found the problem, but is this it?

    on the translation pitchers page it also says N/A.. it shows all the stats through coulumn P, but then on column R- wins ans so on it says N/A... so the other pages have no reference point.....?
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  14. #14  
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    GREEK's LineVALUE ON
    Mets287.53METSSMALL VALUE
    Dodgers287.83EVEN-120
    Rangers173.08
    Pirates227.05153.97-150NONE
    Indians278.69111.16-132
    Marlins267.53MARLINS
    Dbacks242.41D-BACKS
    Yankees316.84174.43-230
    Nationals204.23
    Orioles249.88145.65-153NONE
    Rockies 206.89ROCKIES
    Redsox339.48232.60-275
    Brewers258.18
    Tigers289.98131.81-130NONE
    Angels297.38165.08-165NONE
    Reds232.30
    Padres283.91181.16-200
    Devil Rays202.75DEVIL RAYS
    Cardinals 211.80125.52EVENCARDINALS
    Royals186.28
    Athletics270.31153.83EVENATHLETICS
    Astros216.48
    Mariners266.84MARINERS
    Cubs270.98104.15-130
    Braves256.45114.03-110NONE
    Twins242.42
    Value ON:
    Mets
    Marlins
    Dbacks
    Rockies
    Devil Rays
    Cardinals
    Athletics
    Mariners
    Don't fade -150 or greater favorites
    FINAL PLAYS:
    METS
    MARLINS
    CARDS
    A's
    MARINERS
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  15. #15  
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    http://www.4shared.com/file/17860561...ystem_400.html



    Check out that update.

    It's all filled out and will give you an idea.

    Click on the cells and look at the frmulas and where the numbers are coming from.
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  16. #16  
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    Don't fade -150 or greater favorites
    FINAL PLAYS:
    METS
    MARLINS
    CARDS
    A's
    MARINERS







    (By the way this is a filter over the week gthat has made the system successful. Value is value, and over time, it may be more profitable to play any play with value.)

    Another filter down the road may be....only play plays with value of 40 or greater, or 50 or greater or whatever that number ends up being to put this system into +EV and +money.
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  17. #17  
    RX Senior auggiedawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ********* View Post
    Don't fade -150 or greater favorites




















    FINAL PLAYS:










    METS










    MARLINS










    CARDS










    A's










    MARINERS

















    (By the way this is a filter over the week gthat has made the system successful. Value is value, and over time, it may be more profitable to play any play with value.)

    Another filter down the road may be....only play plays with value of 40 or greater, or 50 or greater or whatever that number ends up being to put this system into +EV and +money.
    dang, looks very nice BOX.....too bad im stupid and not great with excel, but im gonna try and tinker with it.....

    I dont have excel on my computer, but i do have a viewer that allows me to view excel files, but it will not allow me to type stuff in cell, manipulate, etc......anyone know of where i can get excel for free??

    thanks
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  18. #18  
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    Do you have a record of how this has done so far? Or are you just breaking it out?
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  19. #19  
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    made the chart look nicer and easier to understand on the bottom

    http://www.4shared.com/file/17861320...ystem_400.html
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  20. #20  
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickFantana View Post
    Do you have a record of how this has done so far? Or are you just breaking it out?

    it's gone like 11-3, but im really just breaking it out...

    even though its had some unofficial, off the record success...its really in its testing stages, and i dont recommend following its plays yet....over the past 2 days i have noticed some things that need tweaking and just did...

    its looking better and better everyday, and its very scary how many lines that it produces that are spot on with the books
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  21. #21  
    RX Member NickFantana's Avatar
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    I just looked through it all and that's a lot of work you put in....nice job. I would guess the most efficient use of something like this would be in relation to line movement. I'd guess the numbers are pretty correct with books opening lines but if the public moves a line 40 or 50 points, that's where you'll see value.
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  22. #22  
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    just keep an eye on the plays....see how they turn out

    im gonna play the mets small tonight
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  23. #23  
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    Box,

    Sorry I haven't been around I just got hired and have been extremely busy haven't had much if any free time. The spreadsheet looks amazing so far. I was wondering if you could answer a few quick questions before I begin to tinker with it....

    1) What version of Excel are you using?
    2) Do you only update the tables on the worksheets with "WQ" in the worksheets name?
    3) Have you already started attaching the pitchers throwing arm or do you want me to do it?

    Thanks for your effort
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  24. #24  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillsBets View Post
    Box,

    Sorry I haven't been around I just got hired and have been extremely busy haven't had much if any free time. The spreadsheet looks amazing so far. I was wondering if you could answer a few quick questions before I begin to tinker with it....

    1) What version of Excel are you using?
    2) Do you only update the tables on the worksheets with "WQ" in the worksheets name?
    3) Have you already started attaching the pitchers throwing arm or do you want me to do it?

    Thanks for your effort

    1. Excel 2003
    2. WQ - Overall stands for Web Queries. Update all of the qeb queries one at a time by hitting "Refresh Data". You have to be on the correct cell when you update (refresh_) the data. If you are on some random cell and refresh the data it will refresh the stats and spit all of that information using the live cell as the top left hand corner, ruining all of the alignment and system.

    Alignment of the cells is absolutely imperative. If any cell is knocked off it's designated and current "perch" it will result in "N/A"'s all over the place. The cells are being referenced to a T. Theere are thousands of formulas tied into this thing, and if you screw one thing up all of the numbers will get screwed up.

    Cells in row 2 of the Web Query.....Where it says "Team aggregate stats 2007". Those are the cell that have to be refreshed for each data set. One at a time. And it should align in the exact same spot, exact same way. But, once that happens, the stats change the alignment of the teams, because teams batting averages are always changing, so the Yankees fall 3 cells, and the Mets rise 2 cells, and alignment changes.

    So it messes up alphabetization on other pages. (All of the Translation Pages that translate the unorganized, unaplhabetized stats, and "translate them" or format them and organize them correctly.)

    3. Wow, if you could take my latest version that I just attached to this thread, download it and add the throwing arms, I would be very grateful. It saves the step of inputting that info.

    Feel free to ask anymore questions that u may have. The faster I can get everyone interested up to speed, the quicker this can be talked about and tweaked.
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  25. #25  
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    How the System Works:

    I handicap games the same way everyday. I look for overall team strength, how hot they are currently playing, who the starting pitcher is, and situational stats (home/away, vs. L/R, etc).

    Instead of looking that up everyday, I have assigned a power ranking number that directly relates to each stat, and then puts out a power ranking that directly relates and translates those power rankings to a betting line.

    Step 1:
    Web Query Worksheet goes out and grabs every stat imaginable off ESPN. Overall stats, standings, last 7 days stats, home stats, away stats, lefty stats, righty stats, etc.

    Step 2:
    The "Translation" pages interpret that data, and format it correctly, aplhabetize it, so it isnt arranged in order of who has the highest stats, but in order of team name. That way all of the stats are organized and arranged for the right team. It establishes consistency. Row 3 for every page refers to the Arizona Diamondbacks for example.

    Once the next day comes, the webqueries grab the latest information, which is usually organized in order of highest batting average to lowest batting average, etc. Obviously that always changes, and the list changes and screws up the stats. Thats why the alphabetization is important.

    Step 3:
    Go to the user interface "Power rankings" page. Insert pitcher name (spelling is important), home or away, etc.

    It will spit out a final power ranking for each team.

    Power Rankings directly reflect the betting line. All you need to do is add 100.

    If difference is 50. My line is 150.
    If difference in power rankings is 67. My line is 167.
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