ATP Picks 6-14-07

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ATP

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1. Pitt -172


Dont like laying this much on the bucos but if there were a spot for it this is it. Gorzellany has been unreal this season going 6-3 with a 2.7 ERA and even when he loses he looks alright doing so. Were it any other Pitt starter besides Snell Id be all over the over in this game but Gorzellany can shut almost anyone down and Texas at 7-12 vs lefties, 15-35 as a dog, 9-24 away from texas, and only 4-4 vs the national league makes pitt look even more appealing. Kam Loe at 1-6 with an ERA approaching 8 would not be in the big leagues if Texas wasnt so depleted with the likes of Padilla and Millwood sucking as their studs. He has had a problem of going deep into games and the Texas starters have burned the bullpen already with the last 4 games starters going no deeper than 5 innings in any start, meanwhile Snell went the distance last night making the pen fresh for pitt, not like they should need it though.

172/100

2. Boston -1.5 (-120)

I definitly did not see that outburst from colorodo coming last night beating up on schilling and his -270 line by a 12-2 score, Ill go back to the well again hoping for a seriously pissed off team to come out to play with the yanks winning today and cutting into that big lead. Up until their last ten games boston was murdering lefties, and they still hold a 10-8 record vs them, seems this is a spot for them to get off on Francis who is 5-5, while boston sends out the AL Cy young leader in Josh Beckett and his 9-0 record. Beckett has a solid past vs the rocks from his days in florida going 4-0 in 5 games pitching 32 innings and allowing only 10 runs. Boston holds one of the best records in the league thanks to their great home record of 20-11 and they are 35-15 as favs. I dont see this offense being held to 2 runs for the third night in a row and Beckett should hold the rocks in check.

240/200
 

ATP

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Ill dismiss the fact that Washington plays baltimore well in this spot as Guthrie has been one of very few bright spots for the Os lately. These two starters faced the opposing team once this season in washington where simontacchi went 6 innigs giving up 6 hits allowing 3 runs and faning 6 in a loss while Guthrie blew them away going 7 innings and allowing 4 hits and only one run faning 10 nats. Anyone with a 1.7 ERA should appreciate pitching to the nationals while baltimore has sucked lately this is a spot for the offense to get on track vs a 3-4 5.5ERA pitcher at home. All the numbers of history say to take the nats +1.5 but in this case Ill try to cash on the Os
 

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