Hondo
10 units: Giants
10 units: Mariners
Handicapper World
Braves @ Indians
Davies vs Carmona
Pick: Over 10
Angels @ Dodgers
Escobar vs Wolf
Pick: Dodgers +120 (*Game of the Year*)
Dave Cokin
(955) WAS Nationals
(956) TOR Blue Jays
Take "(955) WAS Nationals"
The Nationals have fallen back to earth after their road sweep at Baltimore, now having lost the first two games of their weekend set with the Blue jays. But the Nats have their good luck charm on the mound Sunday, as Washington just keeps on winning whenever Micah Bowie takes the mound. Bowie is being opposed by Toronto's #5 starter, Josh Towers, who just recently returned to the rotation after a pretty good stint in the Jays bullpen. Towers initial start as Toma Ohka's replacement wasn't especially good, and I'll be surprised if he's much better here. This one's all about getting a great price and fading a substandard starter. The Nationals are my play for Sunday
Jim Feist
(969) FLA Marlins
(970) KC Royals
Take "(970) KC Royals"
Brain Bannister has been amazing in his last two starts for the Royals. Not only is he 2-0 in those starts, but he hasn't allowed an earned run in 14 innings while striking out eight and walking just two. In fact, Bannister has won his last three starts and allowed just one earned run!!!! The Marlins counter with Scott Olsen. Olsen has had a very mediocre season, going just 5-5 on the year and 2-3 on the road. His away ERA is a high 5.50 and he's walked more batters than he has struck out on the road this year (21 vs 20). Bannister has been hot and with a short price on the home club we'll go with the Royals
Sunday Horse Racing Spots
SPOT PLAYS
For Sunday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (1st) Tokyo Storm, 5-1
(3rd) Bail Out the King, 3-1
Belmont Park (6th) Find the Chestnut, 8-1
(10th) Too Much Zip, 3-1
Calder Race Course (3rd) Irish Rogue, 5-1
(4th) Firebrook, 3-1
Canterbury Park (4th) Esau's Thunder, 3-1
(8th) Somerset Sheri, 7-2
Charles Town (4th) Lady Nonna, 8-1
(10th) Eagle Beagle, 8-1
Churchill Downs (7th) Indian Fire, 6-1
(10th) My Own Story, 6-1
Colonial Downs (4th) Unbridled Behavior, 4-1
(7th) King Maximus, 8-1
Delaware Park (1st) Dublin Hero, 4-1
(3rd) Jaunty Gale, 8-1
Emerald Downs (8th) Serra Lee Trail, 7-2
(9th) City Sprint, 4-1
Finger Lakes (4th) Sizzling Saint, 8-1
(7th) Tiger Speech, 6-1
Fort Erie (3rd) Runwind, 3-1
(8th) Athenia's Rose, 8-1
Hastings Park (2nd) Danjuria, 4-1
(6th) Princess Alex, 8-1
Hollywood Park (2nd) Awesome Shine, 9-2
(6th) True Dancer, 3-1
Lone Star Park (5th) Speed Fest, 7-2
(6th) Will's Dancer, 10-1
Louisiana Downs (1st) Stormy Phantom, 3-1
(9th) Devilish Kris, 7-2
Monmouth Park (4th) Irish Osprey, 4-1
(8th) Trieste's Honor, 8-1
Mountaineer (5th) Major Strike, 5-1
(9th) Harford Hill, 8-1
Philadelphia Park (2nd) Rosehanna, 4-1
(9th) Seeking an Angel, 3-1
River Downs (6th) Belle's Rocket, 3-1
(8th) Award Yu, 7-2
Suffolk Downs (4th) Bad Big Wolf, 8-1
(7th) Regal Diamond, 8-1
Thistledown (11th) Windcauseruckus, 9-2
(13th) Decorate, 9-2
Woodbine (6th) Sunadir, 9-2
(10th) Flashy N Classy, 8-1
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
VAGRANCY H. (G2), 9TH-BEL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 6.5F, 5:15 P.M. EDT, 6-17
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 NOTHING BUT FUN HUSHION MICHAEL E VELASQUEZ CORNE 116
2 ANY LIMIT JERKENS H ALLEN COA E M 118
3 MARY DELANEY KENNEALLY EDDIE GOMEZ G K 117
4 INDIAN FLARE FRANKEL ROBERT J CASTELLANO J J 116
5 MAGNOLIA JACKSON CONTESSA GARY C VELAZQUEZ J R 117
6 OPRAH WINNEY DUTROW RICHARD E PRADO E S 117
Sunday's $150,000 Vagrancy H. (G2) doesn't feature a standout. All six distaffers rate consideration for top honors, but we like the speed. OPRAH WINNEY (Royal Academy) didn't display her normal form when finishing third in the March 24 Distaff Breeders' Cup H. (G2) last out, rating in third 3 1/2 lengths back after a half-mile, but she runs well fresh for trainer Richard Dutrow and could prove impossible to catch on Father's Day.
She returned off a 1 1/2-month break to capture the seven-furlong Barbara Fritchie Breeders' Cup H. (G2) in sensational fashion two starts back, earning an excellent 104 BRIS Speed rating after leading wire-to-wire, and Oprah Winney notched a 107 Speed figure in her previous outing. Edgar Prado will return to the saddle aboard the four-year-old gray, and her rivals will have to catch her to beat her.
ANY LIMIT (Limit Out) experienced a rough trip in the Bed o' Roses Breeders' Cup H. (G2) last out, with her saddle slipping and her jockey losing the irons, and she's eligible to return to form with a victory. Winner of the Hurricane Bertie H. (G3) three starts back at this 6 1/2-furlong distance, she also won the the First Lady H. (G3) and finished second in the Shirley Jones Breeders' Cup H. (G2) at Gulfstream Park. The Allen Jerkens runner is adaptable and figures to be pressing the speed from the start here. Eibar Coa will pick up the mount aboard the four-year-old miss, and Any Limit looks very capable.
INDIAN FLARE (Cherokee Run) recorded a stakes win sprinting on the turf two starts back at Santa Anita, and she captured the Kalookan Queen H. at this distance on the main track in late December. Trained by Bobby Frankel, the five-year-old mare has experience at Belmont, and she's a threat to finish up well on Sunday.
MAGNOLIA JACKSON (Cape Canaveral) finished third in last year's Vagrancy and owns two wins at Belmont. She's dropped her last three starts and we're not sure she's sharp enough to win here, but we can't dismiss her chances for the exotics.
MARY DELANEY (Hennessy) had her four-race winning streak broken at Woodbine last out, and the Eddie Kenneally charge doesn't own much experience on dirt. She is a very talented filly, though, and will likely utilize her speed from the start. We'll go against her, but we won't be surprised to see her in the thick of things in the stretch drive. NOTHING BUT FUN (Dixie Union) will make her 2007 debut for Mike Hushion. A Grade 2 winner, the five-year-old mare finished second in the Ballerina Breeders' Cup S. (G1) two starts back and has the back class to challenge for it all in this spot. However, we'll give her a race back off the shelf.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-OPRAH WINNEY
2nd-ANY LIMIT
3rd-INDIAN FLARE
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
AFFIRMED H. (G3), 8TH-HOL, $100,000, 3YO, 1 1/16M, 4:50 P.M. PDT, 6-17
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 TIME TO GET EVEN SOLIS WALTHER FLORES D R 118
2 UNUSUAL SUSPECT ABRAMS BARRY SMITH M E 115
3 DESERT CODE HOFMANS DAVID MIGLIORE R 118
4 AWESOME GAMBLER DOMINGUEZ CAESAR F TALAMO JOSEPH 119
5 COBALT BLUE O'NEILL DOUG ESPINOZA V 121
6 ALBERTUS MAXIMUS MANDELLA GARY CHAVEZ J F 117
Sunday's $100,000 Affirmed H. (G3) features a well-matched field of six sophomores. DESERT CODE (E Dubai) will be making his third lifetime start over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track, breaking his maiden by 5 3/4 lengths and finishing third by a neck in the Lazaro Barrera Memorial S. (G3), and the David Hofmans trainee rates top billing on Father's Day.
A good turf performer, winning the Baldwin S. (G3) and finishing second by a nose in the La Puente S., Desert Code also clearly likes the synthetic surface. He owns plenty of natural speed, but the chestnut colt has proven effective when rating just off the pace, closing well in the stretch of the Laz Barrera last out. Desert Code will be on or very close to the early lead in the Affirmed, and we expect him to finish strong for the win.
COBALT BLUE (Golden Missile) was a sharp two-length winner of the San Felipe S. (G2) three starts back, earning a commendable 98 BRIS Speed rating, but he regressed severely when finishing seventh in the Illinois Derby (G2) next out. Following a freshening, the Doug O'Neill charge returned with a decent second in the Alydar S., moving to a clear lead in the stretch before weakening to second. Cobalt Blue is eligible to move forward off that effort.
AWESOME GAMBLER (Coronado's Quest) is a dangerous late runner. He broke his maiden two starts back in his Cushion Track debut, closing from far back to win at this 1 1/16-mile distance by a length, and the Caesar Dominguez pupil ran down Cobalt Blue in the Alydar last out, drawing clear by 1 1/2 lengths late while going nine furlongs. He didn't earn the best Speed rating (93) last time and could be overbet here, but Awesome Gambler remains a threatening off-the-pace presence.
TIME TO GET EVEN (Stephen Got Even) gamely prevailed in the Laz Barrera, getting up in the final strides in a tight three-way finish, and we like the 101 Speed rating that he earned two starts back when breaking his maiden. The dark bay colt is headed in the right direction presently for conditioner Walther Solis, and he merits consideration for it all on Sunday.
ALBERTUS MAXIMUS (Albert the Great) figures to show speed from his outside post. He exits a nice wire-to-wire score over the Cushion Track, winning with ease as the odds-on favorite, but the Gary Mandella runner will be tested for class in this spot. Albertus Maximus will carry his speed as far as he can. UNUSUAL SUSPECT (Unusual Heat) probably needs an easier spot to be effective.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-DESERT CODE
2nd-COBALT BLUE
3rd-AWESOME GAMBLER
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Sunday, June 17
RACE ONE
Of the five runners entered in this turf stakes, only one has actually won on the grass. That horse is SCOTTSBLUFF. Fresh from a second place finish in the Bullet Stakes, SCOTTSBLUFF should be able to track ONE UNION early, then have enough left to hold off the back runners. If this race was on the main track, NORTHERN SOLDIER would be the choice. The Brian Koriner trainee was a close third in the recent Grade 3 Los Angeles Handicap after a three-month hiatus and also has tactical speed. TURNBOLT was only a length back of 'SOLDIER in the Los Angeles.
RACE TWO
AWESOME SHINE comes off a deceptively good try and might be able to spring a minor upset against these expensive maiden claimers. In his first encounter with Cushion Track, 'SHINE raced in traffic down the backstretch, swung out for room entering the lane, and was only beaten a little more than three lengths in a fast race for the class. WANTED set the pace in a longer race before throwing in the towel. He drops in class and shortens up again for David Hofmans. PROTECTOROFALLEVIL was well bet on the turf at Golden Gate, but could only beat one horse. Victor Espinoza and a return to sprinting might awaken him.
RACE THREE
BOPPA BOB is unbeaten in two sprints for Adam Kitchingman and looks primed for another front-running victory. Leading rider Michael Baze, who has done little wrong this meet, takes the call. GOTTA GETCHA scraped the rail on the stretch turn then repelled the favorite Gary John for a gritty score. He steps up one level off the win. HOT FLAME ran great in his second start off the layoff, pressing the pace then giving way grudgingly for third. With 'BOPPA drawn to his outside, 'FLAME will have to really hustle.
RACE FOUR
MISSION VIEJO HALO ran a winning caliber race in her first outing, but had to settle for the place. The filly who beat her, Nook and Granny, is a fine prospect. LA MINA is bred for speed and has a noteworthy half-mile drill May 26. Mike Mitchell has been using Martin Garcia a lot lately. THE GOLDEN NOODLE was three lengths arears of the top pick and has a right to improve second time out.
RACE FIVE
SWISS ROSE signaled a return to form in her last start and rates a slender edge in this filly and mare claimer. The one major negative is the rail slot. JAY AY is back at her best distance and has never raced this cheaply. She should get an ideal trip, on or just off the pace. PROMISE OF SPRING looks tough on paper, but has shown a tendency to hang. This race is restricted to non-winners of two races lifetime, so she's a fit.
RACE SIX
GRAFTON was claimed back by Julio Canani, took a couple of months off, and returns one level below the purchase price. All in all a typical Julio Canani winning pattern. GRAFTON is partial to the Hollywood Park course, finishing in the money eight of 10 times. TRUE DANCER is a real professional and strictly the one to beat. He just scored under identical conditions last time out and is two-for-four locally. QUEST VENTURE went too fast early and the pace took its toll late. If his speed can be reined in, he's a wire-to-wire threat.
RACE SEVEN
ABALANCHE hasn't won since breaking his maiden five races ago, but has faced the likes of Albertus Maximus, Time to Get Even and Try to Fly. The class drop coupled with the outside post should get him back on the right track. CAYAMBE won like a short price favorite, even though the tote board came back with a $123.20 payoff. He took command from the outset and widened on his foes to win by four. He faces a sterner test here, but his last victory was no fluke. PICK VIC was stranded on the rail last time and lost all chance when he took up at the start.
RACE EIGHT
AWESOME GAMBLER showed an incredible turn of foot in winning his last two starts. Talamo was quoted as saying that this horse has the most acceleration of any horse he's ridden. ALBERTUS MAXIMUS also captured his last two starts impressively, setting up quite a showdown. With other speed draws inside him, 'MAXIMUS may have to employ rating tactics today. COBALT BLUE was run down by 'GAMBLER in the Alydar Stakes, but likely needed the race after six weeks of down time.
RACE NINE
INGRID THE GAMBLER had the misfortune of hooking a monster in Saucy Officer May 19. A repeat of that second place finish will have her posing for pictures. STOP THE HUMOR was beaten an inch against similar last time out and has the benefit of turf experience. Unfortunately, she must draw in off the also eligible list to participate. ISLAND HOP was a fast-closing fourth before being benched by Canani. She'll be charging from the back of the pack at this shorter distance.
Best Bet-GRAFTON (6)
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Churchill Downs
Analysis:: by Jill Byrne
Race 1 -
ORIENTAL PUNCH (10) could not hold on at this level last out after setting fast fractions She draws a better outside post today and may not face as much early pressure. OH MIA MY OH (1) takes a major class drop today and figures to be the main threat to the top choice. She tracked a soft pace before fading recently as the favorite against a stronger field and must only overcome her rail post to be a factor. SAMANTHA MULDER (8) was second at big odds at this price recently and can be a contender with a repeat of that performance. SLAM IT TO ME (11) has been away since a runner-up finish in her debut last June, but is a logical choice if she is sharp off the break.
10-1-8
Race 2 -
BUTANE (1) just missed after stumbling at the start when facing maiden claimers for the first time last out and figures a solid choice today off that effort. She should be on the lead with a better break from the rail. I'M THE DIVA (3) is a first time starter with some steady works and a pedigree to be ready to go early. HOLD THAT CROWN (2) was claimed out of her debut where she showed very little and attracted no attention at the windows. Her new connections are very sharp off the claim and she merits a look here.
1-3-2
Race 3 -
VIREO (3) stopped badly against allowance company at Prairie Meadows last out. She had been in good form against company similar to today’s group prior to that and is a strong contender to take this field from start to finish. TOKEN FIGHTER (6) was an even third in a slightly more competitive group at this level last out. Her consistency makes her hard to ignore in this field. QUEENOFMARDIGRAS (2) exits a third place finish at this same conditioned claiming level, although that field was stronger than the one she meets today. A return to her past form would make her a strong off-the-pace factor here.
3-6-2
Race 4 -
AMERICANREVOLUTION (4) drops into this high priced claimer after failing to hold on when she set quick fractions in a decent allowance race. He was a wire to wire winner at Gulfstream at this distance and figures to be on the lead. NAKAYUMA KUN (6) is better suited to today's one-turn mile distance and has four wins that include a victory at this level at Gulfstream. He has faced better fields and appears to be in a good spot for his first local win. TEPEXPAN (5) could have needed his last when faded after setting the fractions on the turf. He could pressure on the top pick, but will likely try to settle under Leparoux.
4-6-5
Race 5 -
GOT BLING (10) was unruly prior to her debut and unseated her rider in the post parade, which is never a good thing before any race. She ran a dull fourth, but has worked very well since and today gets another chance to do the right thing today. BLITZING (1) will be very well prepped for her first start for the Asmussen stable and tipped her ability with a sharp local workout. KEPT LADY (11) has been working very well at Keeneland for sharp connections and is bred to be quick and precocious. MINEWANDER (4) is a beautifully bred daughter of "Horse of the Year" Mineshaft with some good morning drills for her debut.
10-1-11
Race 6 -
ALPINE GARDEN (6) has run well in all three turf starts and gets the slight edge in this well matched group of grass maidens as Albarado picks up he mount. TREASURE CHEST (1) has put in solid performances in all her starts this year and looks like the one to beat. She will get a ground saving trip from the rail and figures to be in a stalking spot. DYNACIELO (2) had no apparent excuse when she showed little interest as the favorite last out. She had run well before she clipped heels in her prior start, and could have needed that last race to regain her confidence.
6-1-2
Race 7 -
DIXIE DARE (4) ran well in her first start off the claim in a good $30,000 claimer. She is tough to go against as she drops back in class today. THIS WAY HOME (3) is on a three-race win streak at River Downs and is not out of her element with this today’s group. She gets Borel aboard and has the advantage of being able to stalk and put in a finish down the stretch. COLTON’S MAGIC CAT (1) takes her blinkers off as she drops back to facing 3-year-olds after being unable to compete with older horses.
4-3-1
Race 8 -
RED SAND BEACH (2) hooked a tough field in his first try against winners and faded late after pressing the pace. He turns back slightly in distance, has worked very well since that start and can improve in his second attempt at this condition. NEXT ADVENTURE (4) closed quickly while wide in the mud in a quickly run allowance race on Derby Day. He could have been flattered by the fast early fractions that day, but has been consistent and close in his recent starts and looks like the greatest threat to the top pick. MARKUM (1) finished up well in last two starts over here and always puts in a good effort.
2-4-1
Race 9 -
MINISTER’S BID (4) comes in off a hard fought victory in his first start since August. He has won at today's mile distance and will be better off if Bejarano can get him to settle off the pace. O’CONNELL’S (5) is two-for-two at Churchill and has run consistently well against some top competition. He makes his first start since January, but has always run well off the layoff. CHIPPEWA TRAIL (7) has run two good races since his return to Churchill and has an overall excellent overall record here. He figures to get some pace pressure from Bully For You, who finished just in front of him last out. SKY DIVING (3) ran well in his first turf try recently and has good back form to fall back on.
4-5-7
Race 10 -
MY OWN STORY (8) was too sharp from the start in a race with slow early fractions last out and was unable to finish up against favored May Night. She draws a better outside post today and will be a factor if she can relax early. CRUMBS OF COMFORT (5) won her stateside debut in a race that was taken off the turf and run on the sloppy main track. She comes from the solid French team of Biancone and Leparoux and looks capable of another forward move. CIAO (4) was a stakes winner over this course in the fall and could have needed her last start, which was her first since that win. KATERBUG (6) has been away since two unsuccessful stakes attempts in the fall. She had won two hard fought races on turf prior to those losses and has trained steadily for this.
8-5-4
Race 11 -
BOOGIE WOOGIE MAN (4) drops sharply from a strong starter allowance race to this lowest priced claimer and is due for a better performance. Bejarano picks up the mount and he has shown an affinity for this track in the past. SEATTLE CURRENT (8) put in a good effort on the turf at Indiana Downs and ran well on Polytrack against $10,000 claimers at Keeneland prior to that. SILENT BID (9) exits two tougher races at this bottom level and figures once again to be close to the early pace.
4-8-9
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Belmont
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: As Do I (4th race)
First Race
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1. Jesse's Justice 2. Kats Golden Ways 3. Island Reversal
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JESSE'S JUSTICE displayed good tactical speed and a solid finish in maiden victory on this course, stalking the leaders and drawing off; that's the best grass race in this field by a narrow margin, and she may win right back with the benefit of a ground-saving trip from rail post. KATS GOLDEN WAYS concluded 3-year-old season with an even effort behind Latitude Forty, who came back to win an overnight stake; off slowest, rallied belatedly in sprint comeback. ISLAND REVERSAL and SMALL POTATOES posted identical Beyer tops (79) on this course last month, the same top number as Kats Golden Ways; might pay to spread in first half of the daily double since handful of these are so closely matched.
Second Race
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1. Sea Chanter 2. Queen of Protocol 3. Saber Jet Reprized
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SEA CHANTER is by a BC Mile winner, highly rated for turf, and the homebred breezed nicely from the gate at Saratoga recently; trainer known for winning with new shooters on the grass. QUEEN OF PROTOCOL is a half-sister to one grass winner, debuts for trainer who is annually dangerous in these early-season juvenile turf sprints. SABER JET REPRIZED is a half-sis to three multiple sprint winners; trainer saddled 2YO first-out winner Make the Point ($16.80) here Wednesday.
Third Race
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1. Shaky Town 2. Reverberate 3. Deputy Indy
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Two summers ago, SHAKY TOWN won stakes at Lone Star and Evangeline Downs with Beyer figures in the upper 90s, and ran nearly as fast earlier this year at Oaklawn; well-traveled statebred is now 7, but attracted a claim by sharp outfit last out. REVERBERATE has only had three chances in this allowance condition since finishing second in '05 Peter Pan, two of which came off long layoffs, and another that came against eventual stakes winner A.P. Arrow; overtaken late by DEPUTY INDY on May 28, but will have no excuses with that tightener under his belt. DIAMOND ISLE has run at Belmont three times, and produced his top Beyer figure in two of those races, including comeback N1X win last out; very good workouts since then.
Fourth Race
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1. As Do I 2. My Dear Maud 3. Little Red Bullet
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AS DO I was unveiled in a 12-horse field at Woodbine last month, and was in contention throughout before winding up fourth, beaten for second by a pair of necks; will be a short price vs. New York-breds despite tough post. MY DEAR MAUD also drew outside, but raced wide and had the lead in midstretch before weakening first time on turf; eligible to improve second start back from layoff. LITTLE RED BULLET comes off a 14-point forward move on the Beyer figures when stretched out to this distance vs. 2-5 Jesse's Justice, who is among the contenders in today's opener; stock will rise if the latter runs big.
Fifth Race
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1. Baby Rusch 2. Seeking the Glory 3. Democrat
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BABY RUSCH returned from five months on the sidelines to miss in a photo to Stonewood, a hard-knocking sprinter who came back to win again; lifetime top effort came on this track in second start of '06. SEEKING THE GLORY is just 2 for 21 since the start of '06, but conistently in the money, and was in a very tough spot chasing open starter handicap sprinters first time off the claim; must-use in exactas/trifectas. DEMOCRAT has been away since winning his last two starts as a 3-year-old last fall, but has run well off workouts in both prior instances.
Sixth Race
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1. Sax in the City 2. Sweet Corredor 3. Karakorum Elektra
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SAX IN THE CITY was up close early, remained in striking range around the turn, and lacked room through the stretch when three lengths behind AMERICAN DREAM'A in first start this year; rates another try in wide-open allowance. SWEET CORREDOR rated nicely just behind a three-way pace dispute, and swept by on the outside in good-figure maiden win first time out this season; caught yielding turf when tried at this distance last summer. KARAKORUM ELEKTRA raced greenly while very wide first time out, but was pounded down to 2-1 when stretched out and put on this course three weeks later, and didn't disappoint; tough right back.
Seventh Race
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1. Fancy Fusaichi 2. Down 3. Stirrup Cup
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FANCY FUSAICHI set a pressured pace and held to be a clear second in debut behind 2-5 shot Partida, and was flattered when Partida returned to win her first-level allowance condition on Friday; must get the best of BRIDLED PATH early and brace for a late challenge from DOWN. The latter is hard to gauge making first start since Hollywood Starlet on Cushion Track six months ago; slow-breaking filly appears primed after bullet workout over the track Monday. STIRRUP CUP is a half-sister to $318K earner Premeditation, sold as a 2YO for $160K; looks to have some ability judging from works in Florida.
Eighth Race
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1. Mathematician 2. Defer 3. Sabre Baby
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MATHEMATICIAN makes his first start since October of 2005, but long layoffs from this outfit win regularly, and he was classy enough as a 3-year-old to race competitively in group stakes; likely to go well. DEFER had a tough task chasing in Grade 1 Turf Classic on yielding turf; packs a solid closing kick on firm turf, and that should only be magnified shortening up to a long sprint. SABRE BABY has Beyered 98-97-98 his last three starts on Belmont turf, capped by game triumph at a mile; only loss from those three races was a runner-up finish to stakes winner Fishy Advice.
Ninth Race
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1. Indian Flare 2. Any Limit 3. Nothing But Fun
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INDIAN FLARE shipped in from Santa Anita off a freshening last year at this time, and ran ANY LIMIT to a close decision after a race-long duel; may trip out nicely drawn outside Any Limit and the speedy MARY DELANEY in return to New York. Any Limit was caught up pressing a very fast pace in the Bed O'Roses, as rider's saddle slipped; freshened, loves this track. NOTHING BUT FUN has also done some of her best runninggn on this surface; making first start of the year, but has won off workouts as a first-time starter, and twice off layoffs, and could get a favorable pace set-up sitting off the leaders early.
Tenth Race
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1. Too Much Zip 2. Heavenly Ballad 3. Agreatfable
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TOO MUCH ZIP got off the inner track in return from short layoff, and responded with an improved effort to finish second behind odds-on Magical Mona; followed with a bullet workout. HEAVENLY BALLAD set the pace and weakened in deep stretch vs. the top pick in a promising debut; must contend with LUV THAT GAME early. AGREATFABLE (full sister to stakes-winning sprinter Grab Bag), PRETTY GAL (half-sister to a 10-time sprint winner), and TURNING LEAVES (half-sis to a seven-time sprint winner) merit consideration if money shows.
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Today's Free Race: Churchill Downs for Sunday June 17, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Churchill Downs
Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:46pm
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
Choice Plays:
#5 KICKIN N SCREAMIN (ML=6/1)
#2 HOLD THAT CROWN (ML=5/1)
KICKIN N SCREAMIN - Faced tougher in the last race at Churchill Downs. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. HOLD THAT CROWN - Expect better today as this filly gets Lasix for the second time. Canani drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping info to believe this one will be one to beat at this level. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BUTANE (ML=4/5), #7 SAVANNA SAMSON (ML=6/1)
BUTANE - Not much value on this participant at the probable odds of 4/5. SAVANNA SAMSON - This horse hasn't been near the victor at the finish recently. Can't invest in this less than sharp equine in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint race recently.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 KICKIN N SCREAMIN to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5]
__________________
Marc Lawrence
Bonus Play: San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox
San Francisco w/Morris over Boston w/Wakefield Giants look to nab the finales of this three game set in Boston behind the serves of Matt Morris here today. Morris has cashed in 15 of his last 20 team starts and is 5-1 in his last 6 road starts in June. With Morris' road WHIP (10.91) superior to Tim Wakefield's home WHIP (12.22), we'll back Morris and the Giants here today. Marc Lawrence came up big again yesterday with his INTERLEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH winner with Atlanta over Cleveland. He's releasing another KILLER PLAY on Sunday's MLB card in a dynamite winning situation directly from his Late Telephone Service
Tony Onio
500?devil Rays
200?arizona
charlie
mlb. arizona @ baltimore under 8 runs (500*)
mlb. detroit-140 (30*)
mlb. cubs-125 (20*)
mlb. kansas city-110 (20*)
mlb. la dodgers+125 (10*)
mlb. colorado-115 (10*) Bonus Play
Burns...
Cleve ML - Big Chalk GOM
NYY/NYM Under - Best Bet
KC/FL Under - 3 pk
KC ML - 3 pk
MINN ML - 3 pk
10 units: Giants
10 units: Mariners
Handicapper World
Braves @ Indians
Davies vs Carmona
Pick: Over 10
Angels @ Dodgers
Escobar vs Wolf
Pick: Dodgers +120 (*Game of the Year*)
Dave Cokin
(955) WAS Nationals
(956) TOR Blue Jays
Take "(955) WAS Nationals"
The Nationals have fallen back to earth after their road sweep at Baltimore, now having lost the first two games of their weekend set with the Blue jays. But the Nats have their good luck charm on the mound Sunday, as Washington just keeps on winning whenever Micah Bowie takes the mound. Bowie is being opposed by Toronto's #5 starter, Josh Towers, who just recently returned to the rotation after a pretty good stint in the Jays bullpen. Towers initial start as Toma Ohka's replacement wasn't especially good, and I'll be surprised if he's much better here. This one's all about getting a great price and fading a substandard starter. The Nationals are my play for Sunday
Jim Feist
(969) FLA Marlins
(970) KC Royals
Take "(970) KC Royals"
Brain Bannister has been amazing in his last two starts for the Royals. Not only is he 2-0 in those starts, but he hasn't allowed an earned run in 14 innings while striking out eight and walking just two. In fact, Bannister has won his last three starts and allowed just one earned run!!!! The Marlins counter with Scott Olsen. Olsen has had a very mediocre season, going just 5-5 on the year and 2-3 on the road. His away ERA is a high 5.50 and he's walked more batters than he has struck out on the road this year (21 vs 20). Bannister has been hot and with a short price on the home club we'll go with the Royals
Sunday Horse Racing Spots
SPOT PLAYS
For Sunday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (1st) Tokyo Storm, 5-1
(3rd) Bail Out the King, 3-1
Belmont Park (6th) Find the Chestnut, 8-1
(10th) Too Much Zip, 3-1
Calder Race Course (3rd) Irish Rogue, 5-1
(4th) Firebrook, 3-1
Canterbury Park (4th) Esau's Thunder, 3-1
(8th) Somerset Sheri, 7-2
Charles Town (4th) Lady Nonna, 8-1
(10th) Eagle Beagle, 8-1
Churchill Downs (7th) Indian Fire, 6-1
(10th) My Own Story, 6-1
Colonial Downs (4th) Unbridled Behavior, 4-1
(7th) King Maximus, 8-1
Delaware Park (1st) Dublin Hero, 4-1
(3rd) Jaunty Gale, 8-1
Emerald Downs (8th) Serra Lee Trail, 7-2
(9th) City Sprint, 4-1
Finger Lakes (4th) Sizzling Saint, 8-1
(7th) Tiger Speech, 6-1
Fort Erie (3rd) Runwind, 3-1
(8th) Athenia's Rose, 8-1
Hastings Park (2nd) Danjuria, 4-1
(6th) Princess Alex, 8-1
Hollywood Park (2nd) Awesome Shine, 9-2
(6th) True Dancer, 3-1
Lone Star Park (5th) Speed Fest, 7-2
(6th) Will's Dancer, 10-1
Louisiana Downs (1st) Stormy Phantom, 3-1
(9th) Devilish Kris, 7-2
Monmouth Park (4th) Irish Osprey, 4-1
(8th) Trieste's Honor, 8-1
Mountaineer (5th) Major Strike, 5-1
(9th) Harford Hill, 8-1
Philadelphia Park (2nd) Rosehanna, 4-1
(9th) Seeking an Angel, 3-1
River Downs (6th) Belle's Rocket, 3-1
(8th) Award Yu, 7-2
Suffolk Downs (4th) Bad Big Wolf, 8-1
(7th) Regal Diamond, 8-1
Thistledown (11th) Windcauseruckus, 9-2
(13th) Decorate, 9-2
Woodbine (6th) Sunadir, 9-2
(10th) Flashy N Classy, 8-1
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
VAGRANCY H. (G2), 9TH-BEL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 6.5F, 5:15 P.M. EDT, 6-17
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 NOTHING BUT FUN HUSHION MICHAEL E VELASQUEZ CORNE 116
2 ANY LIMIT JERKENS H ALLEN COA E M 118
3 MARY DELANEY KENNEALLY EDDIE GOMEZ G K 117
4 INDIAN FLARE FRANKEL ROBERT J CASTELLANO J J 116
5 MAGNOLIA JACKSON CONTESSA GARY C VELAZQUEZ J R 117
6 OPRAH WINNEY DUTROW RICHARD E PRADO E S 117
Sunday's $150,000 Vagrancy H. (G2) doesn't feature a standout. All six distaffers rate consideration for top honors, but we like the speed. OPRAH WINNEY (Royal Academy) didn't display her normal form when finishing third in the March 24 Distaff Breeders' Cup H. (G2) last out, rating in third 3 1/2 lengths back after a half-mile, but she runs well fresh for trainer Richard Dutrow and could prove impossible to catch on Father's Day.
She returned off a 1 1/2-month break to capture the seven-furlong Barbara Fritchie Breeders' Cup H. (G2) in sensational fashion two starts back, earning an excellent 104 BRIS Speed rating after leading wire-to-wire, and Oprah Winney notched a 107 Speed figure in her previous outing. Edgar Prado will return to the saddle aboard the four-year-old gray, and her rivals will have to catch her to beat her.
ANY LIMIT (Limit Out) experienced a rough trip in the Bed o' Roses Breeders' Cup H. (G2) last out, with her saddle slipping and her jockey losing the irons, and she's eligible to return to form with a victory. Winner of the Hurricane Bertie H. (G3) three starts back at this 6 1/2-furlong distance, she also won the the First Lady H. (G3) and finished second in the Shirley Jones Breeders' Cup H. (G2) at Gulfstream Park. The Allen Jerkens runner is adaptable and figures to be pressing the speed from the start here. Eibar Coa will pick up the mount aboard the four-year-old miss, and Any Limit looks very capable.
INDIAN FLARE (Cherokee Run) recorded a stakes win sprinting on the turf two starts back at Santa Anita, and she captured the Kalookan Queen H. at this distance on the main track in late December. Trained by Bobby Frankel, the five-year-old mare has experience at Belmont, and she's a threat to finish up well on Sunday.
MAGNOLIA JACKSON (Cape Canaveral) finished third in last year's Vagrancy and owns two wins at Belmont. She's dropped her last three starts and we're not sure she's sharp enough to win here, but we can't dismiss her chances for the exotics.
MARY DELANEY (Hennessy) had her four-race winning streak broken at Woodbine last out, and the Eddie Kenneally charge doesn't own much experience on dirt. She is a very talented filly, though, and will likely utilize her speed from the start. We'll go against her, but we won't be surprised to see her in the thick of things in the stretch drive. NOTHING BUT FUN (Dixie Union) will make her 2007 debut for Mike Hushion. A Grade 2 winner, the five-year-old mare finished second in the Ballerina Breeders' Cup S. (G1) two starts back and has the back class to challenge for it all in this spot. However, we'll give her a race back off the shelf.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-OPRAH WINNEY
2nd-ANY LIMIT
3rd-INDIAN FLARE
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
AFFIRMED H. (G3), 8TH-HOL, $100,000, 3YO, 1 1/16M, 4:50 P.M. PDT, 6-17
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 TIME TO GET EVEN SOLIS WALTHER FLORES D R 118
2 UNUSUAL SUSPECT ABRAMS BARRY SMITH M E 115
3 DESERT CODE HOFMANS DAVID MIGLIORE R 118
4 AWESOME GAMBLER DOMINGUEZ CAESAR F TALAMO JOSEPH 119
5 COBALT BLUE O'NEILL DOUG ESPINOZA V 121
6 ALBERTUS MAXIMUS MANDELLA GARY CHAVEZ J F 117
Sunday's $100,000 Affirmed H. (G3) features a well-matched field of six sophomores. DESERT CODE (E Dubai) will be making his third lifetime start over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track, breaking his maiden by 5 3/4 lengths and finishing third by a neck in the Lazaro Barrera Memorial S. (G3), and the David Hofmans trainee rates top billing on Father's Day.
A good turf performer, winning the Baldwin S. (G3) and finishing second by a nose in the La Puente S., Desert Code also clearly likes the synthetic surface. He owns plenty of natural speed, but the chestnut colt has proven effective when rating just off the pace, closing well in the stretch of the Laz Barrera last out. Desert Code will be on or very close to the early lead in the Affirmed, and we expect him to finish strong for the win.
COBALT BLUE (Golden Missile) was a sharp two-length winner of the San Felipe S. (G2) three starts back, earning a commendable 98 BRIS Speed rating, but he regressed severely when finishing seventh in the Illinois Derby (G2) next out. Following a freshening, the Doug O'Neill charge returned with a decent second in the Alydar S., moving to a clear lead in the stretch before weakening to second. Cobalt Blue is eligible to move forward off that effort.
AWESOME GAMBLER (Coronado's Quest) is a dangerous late runner. He broke his maiden two starts back in his Cushion Track debut, closing from far back to win at this 1 1/16-mile distance by a length, and the Caesar Dominguez pupil ran down Cobalt Blue in the Alydar last out, drawing clear by 1 1/2 lengths late while going nine furlongs. He didn't earn the best Speed rating (93) last time and could be overbet here, but Awesome Gambler remains a threatening off-the-pace presence.
TIME TO GET EVEN (Stephen Got Even) gamely prevailed in the Laz Barrera, getting up in the final strides in a tight three-way finish, and we like the 101 Speed rating that he earned two starts back when breaking his maiden. The dark bay colt is headed in the right direction presently for conditioner Walther Solis, and he merits consideration for it all on Sunday.
ALBERTUS MAXIMUS (Albert the Great) figures to show speed from his outside post. He exits a nice wire-to-wire score over the Cushion Track, winning with ease as the odds-on favorite, but the Gary Mandella runner will be tested for class in this spot. Albertus Maximus will carry his speed as far as he can. UNUSUAL SUSPECT (Unusual Heat) probably needs an easier spot to be effective.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-DESERT CODE
2nd-COBALT BLUE
3rd-AWESOME GAMBLER
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Sunday, June 17
RACE ONE
Of the five runners entered in this turf stakes, only one has actually won on the grass. That horse is SCOTTSBLUFF. Fresh from a second place finish in the Bullet Stakes, SCOTTSBLUFF should be able to track ONE UNION early, then have enough left to hold off the back runners. If this race was on the main track, NORTHERN SOLDIER would be the choice. The Brian Koriner trainee was a close third in the recent Grade 3 Los Angeles Handicap after a three-month hiatus and also has tactical speed. TURNBOLT was only a length back of 'SOLDIER in the Los Angeles.
RACE TWO
AWESOME SHINE comes off a deceptively good try and might be able to spring a minor upset against these expensive maiden claimers. In his first encounter with Cushion Track, 'SHINE raced in traffic down the backstretch, swung out for room entering the lane, and was only beaten a little more than three lengths in a fast race for the class. WANTED set the pace in a longer race before throwing in the towel. He drops in class and shortens up again for David Hofmans. PROTECTOROFALLEVIL was well bet on the turf at Golden Gate, but could only beat one horse. Victor Espinoza and a return to sprinting might awaken him.
RACE THREE
BOPPA BOB is unbeaten in two sprints for Adam Kitchingman and looks primed for another front-running victory. Leading rider Michael Baze, who has done little wrong this meet, takes the call. GOTTA GETCHA scraped the rail on the stretch turn then repelled the favorite Gary John for a gritty score. He steps up one level off the win. HOT FLAME ran great in his second start off the layoff, pressing the pace then giving way grudgingly for third. With 'BOPPA drawn to his outside, 'FLAME will have to really hustle.
RACE FOUR
MISSION VIEJO HALO ran a winning caliber race in her first outing, but had to settle for the place. The filly who beat her, Nook and Granny, is a fine prospect. LA MINA is bred for speed and has a noteworthy half-mile drill May 26. Mike Mitchell has been using Martin Garcia a lot lately. THE GOLDEN NOODLE was three lengths arears of the top pick and has a right to improve second time out.
RACE FIVE
SWISS ROSE signaled a return to form in her last start and rates a slender edge in this filly and mare claimer. The one major negative is the rail slot. JAY AY is back at her best distance and has never raced this cheaply. She should get an ideal trip, on or just off the pace. PROMISE OF SPRING looks tough on paper, but has shown a tendency to hang. This race is restricted to non-winners of two races lifetime, so she's a fit.
RACE SIX
GRAFTON was claimed back by Julio Canani, took a couple of months off, and returns one level below the purchase price. All in all a typical Julio Canani winning pattern. GRAFTON is partial to the Hollywood Park course, finishing in the money eight of 10 times. TRUE DANCER is a real professional and strictly the one to beat. He just scored under identical conditions last time out and is two-for-four locally. QUEST VENTURE went too fast early and the pace took its toll late. If his speed can be reined in, he's a wire-to-wire threat.
RACE SEVEN
ABALANCHE hasn't won since breaking his maiden five races ago, but has faced the likes of Albertus Maximus, Time to Get Even and Try to Fly. The class drop coupled with the outside post should get him back on the right track. CAYAMBE won like a short price favorite, even though the tote board came back with a $123.20 payoff. He took command from the outset and widened on his foes to win by four. He faces a sterner test here, but his last victory was no fluke. PICK VIC was stranded on the rail last time and lost all chance when he took up at the start.
RACE EIGHT
AWESOME GAMBLER showed an incredible turn of foot in winning his last two starts. Talamo was quoted as saying that this horse has the most acceleration of any horse he's ridden. ALBERTUS MAXIMUS also captured his last two starts impressively, setting up quite a showdown. With other speed draws inside him, 'MAXIMUS may have to employ rating tactics today. COBALT BLUE was run down by 'GAMBLER in the Alydar Stakes, but likely needed the race after six weeks of down time.
RACE NINE
INGRID THE GAMBLER had the misfortune of hooking a monster in Saucy Officer May 19. A repeat of that second place finish will have her posing for pictures. STOP THE HUMOR was beaten an inch against similar last time out and has the benefit of turf experience. Unfortunately, she must draw in off the also eligible list to participate. ISLAND HOP was a fast-closing fourth before being benched by Canani. She'll be charging from the back of the pack at this shorter distance.
Best Bet-GRAFTON (6)
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Churchill Downs
Analysis:: by Jill Byrne
Race 1 -
ORIENTAL PUNCH (10) could not hold on at this level last out after setting fast fractions She draws a better outside post today and may not face as much early pressure. OH MIA MY OH (1) takes a major class drop today and figures to be the main threat to the top choice. She tracked a soft pace before fading recently as the favorite against a stronger field and must only overcome her rail post to be a factor. SAMANTHA MULDER (8) was second at big odds at this price recently and can be a contender with a repeat of that performance. SLAM IT TO ME (11) has been away since a runner-up finish in her debut last June, but is a logical choice if she is sharp off the break.
10-1-8
Race 2 -
BUTANE (1) just missed after stumbling at the start when facing maiden claimers for the first time last out and figures a solid choice today off that effort. She should be on the lead with a better break from the rail. I'M THE DIVA (3) is a first time starter with some steady works and a pedigree to be ready to go early. HOLD THAT CROWN (2) was claimed out of her debut where she showed very little and attracted no attention at the windows. Her new connections are very sharp off the claim and she merits a look here.
1-3-2
Race 3 -
VIREO (3) stopped badly against allowance company at Prairie Meadows last out. She had been in good form against company similar to today’s group prior to that and is a strong contender to take this field from start to finish. TOKEN FIGHTER (6) was an even third in a slightly more competitive group at this level last out. Her consistency makes her hard to ignore in this field. QUEENOFMARDIGRAS (2) exits a third place finish at this same conditioned claiming level, although that field was stronger than the one she meets today. A return to her past form would make her a strong off-the-pace factor here.
3-6-2
Race 4 -
AMERICANREVOLUTION (4) drops into this high priced claimer after failing to hold on when she set quick fractions in a decent allowance race. He was a wire to wire winner at Gulfstream at this distance and figures to be on the lead. NAKAYUMA KUN (6) is better suited to today's one-turn mile distance and has four wins that include a victory at this level at Gulfstream. He has faced better fields and appears to be in a good spot for his first local win. TEPEXPAN (5) could have needed his last when faded after setting the fractions on the turf. He could pressure on the top pick, but will likely try to settle under Leparoux.
4-6-5
Race 5 -
GOT BLING (10) was unruly prior to her debut and unseated her rider in the post parade, which is never a good thing before any race. She ran a dull fourth, but has worked very well since and today gets another chance to do the right thing today. BLITZING (1) will be very well prepped for her first start for the Asmussen stable and tipped her ability with a sharp local workout. KEPT LADY (11) has been working very well at Keeneland for sharp connections and is bred to be quick and precocious. MINEWANDER (4) is a beautifully bred daughter of "Horse of the Year" Mineshaft with some good morning drills for her debut.
10-1-11
Race 6 -
ALPINE GARDEN (6) has run well in all three turf starts and gets the slight edge in this well matched group of grass maidens as Albarado picks up he mount. TREASURE CHEST (1) has put in solid performances in all her starts this year and looks like the one to beat. She will get a ground saving trip from the rail and figures to be in a stalking spot. DYNACIELO (2) had no apparent excuse when she showed little interest as the favorite last out. She had run well before she clipped heels in her prior start, and could have needed that last race to regain her confidence.
6-1-2
Race 7 -
DIXIE DARE (4) ran well in her first start off the claim in a good $30,000 claimer. She is tough to go against as she drops back in class today. THIS WAY HOME (3) is on a three-race win streak at River Downs and is not out of her element with this today’s group. She gets Borel aboard and has the advantage of being able to stalk and put in a finish down the stretch. COLTON’S MAGIC CAT (1) takes her blinkers off as she drops back to facing 3-year-olds after being unable to compete with older horses.
4-3-1
Race 8 -
RED SAND BEACH (2) hooked a tough field in his first try against winners and faded late after pressing the pace. He turns back slightly in distance, has worked very well since that start and can improve in his second attempt at this condition. NEXT ADVENTURE (4) closed quickly while wide in the mud in a quickly run allowance race on Derby Day. He could have been flattered by the fast early fractions that day, but has been consistent and close in his recent starts and looks like the greatest threat to the top pick. MARKUM (1) finished up well in last two starts over here and always puts in a good effort.
2-4-1
Race 9 -
MINISTER’S BID (4) comes in off a hard fought victory in his first start since August. He has won at today's mile distance and will be better off if Bejarano can get him to settle off the pace. O’CONNELL’S (5) is two-for-two at Churchill and has run consistently well against some top competition. He makes his first start since January, but has always run well off the layoff. CHIPPEWA TRAIL (7) has run two good races since his return to Churchill and has an overall excellent overall record here. He figures to get some pace pressure from Bully For You, who finished just in front of him last out. SKY DIVING (3) ran well in his first turf try recently and has good back form to fall back on.
4-5-7
Race 10 -
MY OWN STORY (8) was too sharp from the start in a race with slow early fractions last out and was unable to finish up against favored May Night. She draws a better outside post today and will be a factor if she can relax early. CRUMBS OF COMFORT (5) won her stateside debut in a race that was taken off the turf and run on the sloppy main track. She comes from the solid French team of Biancone and Leparoux and looks capable of another forward move. CIAO (4) was a stakes winner over this course in the fall and could have needed her last start, which was her first since that win. KATERBUG (6) has been away since two unsuccessful stakes attempts in the fall. She had won two hard fought races on turf prior to those losses and has trained steadily for this.
8-5-4
Race 11 -
BOOGIE WOOGIE MAN (4) drops sharply from a strong starter allowance race to this lowest priced claimer and is due for a better performance. Bejarano picks up the mount and he has shown an affinity for this track in the past. SEATTLE CURRENT (8) put in a good effort on the turf at Indiana Downs and ran well on Polytrack against $10,000 claimers at Keeneland prior to that. SILENT BID (9) exits two tougher races at this bottom level and figures once again to be close to the early pace.
4-8-9
__________________
Belmont
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: As Do I (4th race)
First Race
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1. Jesse's Justice 2. Kats Golden Ways 3. Island Reversal
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JESSE'S JUSTICE displayed good tactical speed and a solid finish in maiden victory on this course, stalking the leaders and drawing off; that's the best grass race in this field by a narrow margin, and she may win right back with the benefit of a ground-saving trip from rail post. KATS GOLDEN WAYS concluded 3-year-old season with an even effort behind Latitude Forty, who came back to win an overnight stake; off slowest, rallied belatedly in sprint comeback. ISLAND REVERSAL and SMALL POTATOES posted identical Beyer tops (79) on this course last month, the same top number as Kats Golden Ways; might pay to spread in first half of the daily double since handful of these are so closely matched.
Second Race
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1. Sea Chanter 2. Queen of Protocol 3. Saber Jet Reprized
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SEA CHANTER is by a BC Mile winner, highly rated for turf, and the homebred breezed nicely from the gate at Saratoga recently; trainer known for winning with new shooters on the grass. QUEEN OF PROTOCOL is a half-sister to one grass winner, debuts for trainer who is annually dangerous in these early-season juvenile turf sprints. SABER JET REPRIZED is a half-sis to three multiple sprint winners; trainer saddled 2YO first-out winner Make the Point ($16.80) here Wednesday.
Third Race
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1. Shaky Town 2. Reverberate 3. Deputy Indy
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Two summers ago, SHAKY TOWN won stakes at Lone Star and Evangeline Downs with Beyer figures in the upper 90s, and ran nearly as fast earlier this year at Oaklawn; well-traveled statebred is now 7, but attracted a claim by sharp outfit last out. REVERBERATE has only had three chances in this allowance condition since finishing second in '05 Peter Pan, two of which came off long layoffs, and another that came against eventual stakes winner A.P. Arrow; overtaken late by DEPUTY INDY on May 28, but will have no excuses with that tightener under his belt. DIAMOND ISLE has run at Belmont three times, and produced his top Beyer figure in two of those races, including comeback N1X win last out; very good workouts since then.
Fourth Race
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1. As Do I 2. My Dear Maud 3. Little Red Bullet
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AS DO I was unveiled in a 12-horse field at Woodbine last month, and was in contention throughout before winding up fourth, beaten for second by a pair of necks; will be a short price vs. New York-breds despite tough post. MY DEAR MAUD also drew outside, but raced wide and had the lead in midstretch before weakening first time on turf; eligible to improve second start back from layoff. LITTLE RED BULLET comes off a 14-point forward move on the Beyer figures when stretched out to this distance vs. 2-5 Jesse's Justice, who is among the contenders in today's opener; stock will rise if the latter runs big.
Fifth Race
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1. Baby Rusch 2. Seeking the Glory 3. Democrat
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BABY RUSCH returned from five months on the sidelines to miss in a photo to Stonewood, a hard-knocking sprinter who came back to win again; lifetime top effort came on this track in second start of '06. SEEKING THE GLORY is just 2 for 21 since the start of '06, but conistently in the money, and was in a very tough spot chasing open starter handicap sprinters first time off the claim; must-use in exactas/trifectas. DEMOCRAT has been away since winning his last two starts as a 3-year-old last fall, but has run well off workouts in both prior instances.
Sixth Race
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1. Sax in the City 2. Sweet Corredor 3. Karakorum Elektra
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SAX IN THE CITY was up close early, remained in striking range around the turn, and lacked room through the stretch when three lengths behind AMERICAN DREAM'A in first start this year; rates another try in wide-open allowance. SWEET CORREDOR rated nicely just behind a three-way pace dispute, and swept by on the outside in good-figure maiden win first time out this season; caught yielding turf when tried at this distance last summer. KARAKORUM ELEKTRA raced greenly while very wide first time out, but was pounded down to 2-1 when stretched out and put on this course three weeks later, and didn't disappoint; tough right back.
Seventh Race
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1. Fancy Fusaichi 2. Down 3. Stirrup Cup
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FANCY FUSAICHI set a pressured pace and held to be a clear second in debut behind 2-5 shot Partida, and was flattered when Partida returned to win her first-level allowance condition on Friday; must get the best of BRIDLED PATH early and brace for a late challenge from DOWN. The latter is hard to gauge making first start since Hollywood Starlet on Cushion Track six months ago; slow-breaking filly appears primed after bullet workout over the track Monday. STIRRUP CUP is a half-sister to $318K earner Premeditation, sold as a 2YO for $160K; looks to have some ability judging from works in Florida.
Eighth Race
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1. Mathematician 2. Defer 3. Sabre Baby
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MATHEMATICIAN makes his first start since October of 2005, but long layoffs from this outfit win regularly, and he was classy enough as a 3-year-old to race competitively in group stakes; likely to go well. DEFER had a tough task chasing in Grade 1 Turf Classic on yielding turf; packs a solid closing kick on firm turf, and that should only be magnified shortening up to a long sprint. SABRE BABY has Beyered 98-97-98 his last three starts on Belmont turf, capped by game triumph at a mile; only loss from those three races was a runner-up finish to stakes winner Fishy Advice.
Ninth Race
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1. Indian Flare 2. Any Limit 3. Nothing But Fun
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INDIAN FLARE shipped in from Santa Anita off a freshening last year at this time, and ran ANY LIMIT to a close decision after a race-long duel; may trip out nicely drawn outside Any Limit and the speedy MARY DELANEY in return to New York. Any Limit was caught up pressing a very fast pace in the Bed O'Roses, as rider's saddle slipped; freshened, loves this track. NOTHING BUT FUN has also done some of her best runninggn on this surface; making first start of the year, but has won off workouts as a first-time starter, and twice off layoffs, and could get a favorable pace set-up sitting off the leaders early.
Tenth Race
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1. Too Much Zip 2. Heavenly Ballad 3. Agreatfable
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TOO MUCH ZIP got off the inner track in return from short layoff, and responded with an improved effort to finish second behind odds-on Magical Mona; followed with a bullet workout. HEAVENLY BALLAD set the pace and weakened in deep stretch vs. the top pick in a promising debut; must contend with LUV THAT GAME early. AGREATFABLE (full sister to stakes-winning sprinter Grab Bag), PRETTY GAL (half-sister to a 10-time sprint winner), and TURNING LEAVES (half-sis to a seven-time sprint winner) merit consideration if money shows.
__________________
Today's Free Race: Churchill Downs for Sunday June 17, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Churchill Downs
Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:46pm
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
Choice Plays:
#5 KICKIN N SCREAMIN (ML=6/1)
#2 HOLD THAT CROWN (ML=5/1)
KICKIN N SCREAMIN - Faced tougher in the last race at Churchill Downs. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. HOLD THAT CROWN - Expect better today as this filly gets Lasix for the second time. Canani drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping info to believe this one will be one to beat at this level. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BUTANE (ML=4/5), #7 SAVANNA SAMSON (ML=6/1)
BUTANE - Not much value on this participant at the probable odds of 4/5. SAVANNA SAMSON - This horse hasn't been near the victor at the finish recently. Can't invest in this less than sharp equine in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint race recently.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 KICKIN N SCREAMIN to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5]
__________________
Marc Lawrence
Bonus Play: San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox
San Francisco w/Morris over Boston w/Wakefield Giants look to nab the finales of this three game set in Boston behind the serves of Matt Morris here today. Morris has cashed in 15 of his last 20 team starts and is 5-1 in his last 6 road starts in June. With Morris' road WHIP (10.91) superior to Tim Wakefield's home WHIP (12.22), we'll back Morris and the Giants here today. Marc Lawrence came up big again yesterday with his INTERLEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH winner with Atlanta over Cleveland. He's releasing another KILLER PLAY on Sunday's MLB card in a dynamite winning situation directly from his Late Telephone Service
Tony Onio
500?devil Rays
200?arizona
charlie
mlb. arizona @ baltimore under 8 runs (500*)
mlb. detroit-140 (30*)
mlb. cubs-125 (20*)
mlb. kansas city-110 (20*)
mlb. la dodgers+125 (10*)
mlb. colorado-115 (10*) Bonus Play
Burns...
Cleve ML - Big Chalk GOM
NYY/NYM Under - Best Bet
KC/FL Under - 3 pk
KC ML - 3 pk
MINN ML - 3 pk
