MistaFlava's MLB SUNDAY ***Power Selections*** (Writeups & Analysis)

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MistaFlava's 2007 MLB Record: 33-41 (-20.49 Units)
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My record has been updated. I took buffetgamblers final tabulation of what I had posted this year and this is what he came up with (1-4 day yesterday included with unit size). I don't have a problem posting my record and have never had a problem posting it in the past. I just never posted one in MLB this season so this is a start. Those who follow me know that after my 50 and 100 unit losses in CFB and NFL, I had no problems posting my record with units loss so cut the shit. Anyways, Happy Father's Day to all other fathers...my brother is taking me to the Jays game this afternoon and this is now my third father's day.
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Sunday, June 17<o:p></o:p>

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Arizona Diamondbacks ML -138 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***

I really don't care who won the first two games of this series or if the team's split them (Arizona won both by the way) but the bottom line is that if you're going to dangle a -138 moneyline price tage on the 39-30 Arizona Diamondbacks with their ace on the mound, im gonna bite hard. After losing six of their last seven coming into this series, the D-Backs found a bit of game back in this ballpark scoring 15 runs in the first two games and easily taking care of Baltimore's horrendous bullpen. The D-Backs are still hitting only .214 in their last 10 games which makes them a risky wager but at the same time they a dominant pitcher on the mound and a chance to sweep this series. On the mound for the Orioles today is Brian Burres who is a left-handed pitcher. Well the Diamondbacks are batting only .229 versus lefties on the season so yeah it's a concern but as well as Burres has pitched, he has also given up a lot of hits. There really shouldn't be an issue with the D-Backs hitting lefties because Connor Jackson is .294 versus LPH this season, Orlando Hudson is .281 and Mark Reynolds .375. So the lineup is short on guys who can hit lefties but if they can keep Burres in check, get a few runs off of him, the Baltimore bullpen has an ERA of 8.42 in their last 10 games and I think the Diamonbacks could come on strong in the late innings and steal a win from the Orioles. You cannot possibly win games with a bad bullpen.

The Baltimore Orioles are back to their old losing ways as they are now 2-8 in their last 10 games, have had decent starting pitching but terrible bullpen work and are hitting only .246 in those games. I don't know how much more you can say about this 29-39 but one thing I do know is that they are going to have problems against one of the top pitchers in all of baseball. Brandon Webb pitched in this ballpark once in his career, an 8-2 loss where he got the no-decision. However, let it be know that back in 2004, Brandon Webb was not the dominant pitcher that he is right now and his WHIP for the year was around the 1.50 range. Now its down to 1.24 and just to let you know, it was the pen that blew that game in 2004 because Brandon allowed only 1 ER on 4 hits in five innings of work. The Orioles are hitting only .260 at home this season versus right handed pitchers like Webb, averaging only 3.89 runs scored per game. That could be a huge problem because as much as the Diamondbacks have problems of their own hitting left handed pitchers, Arizona's bullpen has really improved since 2004 and their ERA is now 3.88 on the year and 3.82 in their last 10 games. Webb is coming off a loss to the Yankees and the last time he lost a game before that was in Colorado (May 16) and he followed that up with three wins and a no-decision. I think Webb can pitch well enough to keep his team in there until they reach the Orioles bullpen.

The Diamondbacks have now won 6 of the 8 lifetime meetings between these two teams and although they have never been able to sweep the Orioles in a three game series, this is their best team in years and I have no doubts they can pull it off. Arizona is now 12-1 in their last 13 games as a road favorite, which is an incredible number and which clearly indicates that when they have the better pitcher on the mound, they usually pull through with a win. Surprisingly enough and despite the dismal numbers against lefties, Arizona is 5-1 in their last six road game versus a left-handed pitcher and have had no problems beating the shit out of teams with a losing record. Even better for us D-Backs bettors is that they are 6-1 in Webb's last seven road starts as a favorite and as mentioned before, they have been kicking some serious Baltimore ass in this ballpark. The Orioles are a team that as won 2 of their last 14 games and I don't know why anyone in their right minds would wager any money on these guys. They have lost seven straight interleague home games, most of them against right handed starters and the only edge they have in this game is that home plate umpire Sam Holbrook likes home teams. That won't be enough.




Milwaukee Brewers ML +124 (1 Unit)

I feel there is tons of value with this line on the Brewers. I don't know what oddsmakers are thinking here but when the Brew Crew gets going, they roll and when the Twinkies from Minnesota start losing, they sink like the Titanic. The Brewers have now won the first two games of this series and are 6-4 in their last 10 games. In those games the offense has really started to pick things up as they are hitting .279 during that span and both the starting pitching and the bullpen work have been rock solid. It could be because the Brewers play indoors as well (sometimes) but there is something they love about this ballpark. Standing in the way of a three game series sweep is RHP Kevin Slowey who is making only his fourth career start. His first start went pretty well but he has allowed 17 hits and 8 ER's in his last two starts. Slowey admitted himself that he allows a lot of HR's (he has allowed 4 already this season) which could be a problem against a Brewers team who have 1.0 HR per game on the road versus right handed pitcher. It seems like the Brewers are determined to make a run here because they are coming off two big wins over the Tigers as well. The key for the Brewers will be to hit Slowey hard early because the Twins bullpen is lights out.

The Minnesota Twins are going to try and avoid their first home three game sweep since July 2004 but they have to rely on a rookie starting pitcher to get the job done. The Twins have not been playing good baseball the last two weeks or so as they are 5-5 in their last 10 games and are hitting only .249 during that span of games. Now I know they have won all three games with this rookie on the mound but the way he pitches is bound to catch up to them and I can't think of a better time or place for that to happen. The Twins are facing RHP Jeff Suppan who last pitched in this ballpark in 2002, going 7.0 innings and allowing 8 hits, 2 ER's and losing the game 2-1. Suppan is not the kind of guy who is going to throw some no hit ball for an entire nine innings but he never really gets rocked by opposing teams and that is none the more evident in the fact that he has not allowed more than 4 ER's in any single start this year. I don't know how many MLB pitchers can say that but the most he gave up in 14 starts was 4 runs...good stuff. So like I said before, Suppan will allow his fair share of runs but it's the Milwaukee bullpen that has been most impressive as of late as they have an ERA of 3.28 in their last 10 games and have been able to close the door in four straight games.

The key to betting on this game is not just assuming that the Twins are going to win because they don't want to get swept. Whenever someones bets like that they almost always lose. You have to undertsand that some kid is on the mound for the Twins today, making his fourt major league spot trying to avoid the first three game home sweep since 2004. That's a lot of pressure on this guy. It won't be easy for the Brewers to pull through with the sweep because the Twins have been so good in Game 3's this season but I think if Jeff Suppan can continue to allow only 3-4 runs per game, the Milwaukee offense should have no problems backing him up like they have done for every other starting pitcher on this staff in the past week. Minnesota has now lost four of their last five games at home against a team with a losing record and it seems like they are starting to fall apart a little bit. Milwaukee comes into this game as a bettable team now that they have won four straight and shown that they can beat several different kinds of odds along the way. I have no problem backing them right now for small unit as the underdog. Ride em while they're hot!




New York Yankees ML -192 (3 Units)

Ah yes, the return of El Duque to his old stomping grounds is just what Sunday Night baseball needs in the rubber match of this series. After the Mets lost that marathon 11-8 game yesterday afternoon, the tables have been set for the rubber ducky and what a Sunday Night it's going to be. First of all, before anyone goes nuts and bets on these Mets to win, please keep in mind that they are 2-8 in their last 10 games and are hitting only .257 during that time span and their pitching has completely gone down the shitter. They have now shown that they are a one dimentional team that can pretty much only beat left handed pitchers as they are batting .256 versus righties this season and .310 versus lefties this season. That's not really good. On the mound for the Yankees tonight is Chien-Ming Wang who, believe it or not, has never faced the New York Mets and tonight will be his debut. Wang has pitched quite well at home despite the 3-3 record at Yankee Stadium and has held opposing batters to a batting average of .244. The Yankees bullpen has been on fire as of late with an ERA of only 2.89 over the last 10 games and in a close game like tonight's, that's really the side you want to be on when the game is on the line. I don't know how many Sunday night games the Mets have lost, but it's all of them this year (I think).

The New York Yankees are probably baseball's hottest team having won 9 of their last 10 games but it's not only that they won so many, it's how they have won them and it's how the team has performed. In those games the offense is batting .304 (everyone is starting to contribute as a team), and the pitching has been outstanding to some degree as the starters in the last 10 games have an ERA of 3.60 while the bullpen, as mentioned before, have an ERA of 2.89. On the mound tonight for the Mets is an old Yankee Stadium guy Orlando Hernandez. El Duque has lost all three career starts against him old team but he has always loved pitching in this ballpark so things could be closer than we think. Like I said before, in a close game you really want to have the better bullpen and that has been the Yankees pen. The Mets bullpen is a mess right now as they have an ERA of 7.76 in the last 10 games and I don't know how they can get things together in time for tonight's game. As much as the Yankees prefer hitting against lefties, they do have different dimensions unlike the Mets and have hit right handed pitchers at a .293 clip at home this season. El Duque might pitch a great game but the Yankees are too hot to fade right now.

The price is not exactly what you want on a Sunday Night baseball game seeing how it is the only game of the night and seeing how this has been a great public fade angle all season. Interestingly enough though, as I tell you that the public backed team on SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL has been a good fade all season, the wagerline.com numbers tell me right now that the public is hitting the Mets at 52% which is quite shocking and which could once again lead all the Mets-backing sheep right off the cliff before this game even starts. Remember them against their last few Sunday night games guys. As well as Hernandez has pitched for the Mets, most of his quality starts have been against weaker hitting teams and the Mets are 0-4 in his last four road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Yankees on the other hand have won 11 of their last 12 when favored, and unlike Hernandez for the Mets, the Yankees are 5-1 in Wang's last six starts versus a team with a winning record. Wang faces much better lineups than El Duque does all season and he is probably a lot better suited to bring home the bacon here. This should be a great ball game but again, people are most likely going to be on the Mets and lately, that has been a huge mistake.



:toast:
 
Joined
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I like how you are using more reasonable play grading, i.e. 1-5 unit plays, none of that 50 or 100 unit shit. If your going to be betting on sports you can be playing 1-5 unit plays and then explode for a 100 unit play. Just doesn't work that way, no matter how much you like a game.

Good luck Flava!
 

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Thanks guys...father and brother took me to the Jays game for father's day...it sucked ass...wish I was at the TFC game instead. Im sick of this lifeless team.

Well the D-Backs got it done, Milwaukee gave too little too late and now its onto the Yankees tonight. GL to all!
 

The 2007 Pats could never beat the 1979 Steelers
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Flava,
just thought you might want to know that since Friday there has been 9 games where a team has won by 1 run and 36 games where the team won by more than 1 run.
So you might want to play the -1.5 run-line instead of the high Money-line when playing a big favorite.
:toast:
 

Handicapping Machine
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Flava,
just thought you might want to know that since Friday there has been 9 games where a team has won by 1 run and 36 games where the team won by more than 1 run.
So you might want to play the -1.5 run-line instead of the high Money-line when playing a big favorite.
:toast:


Woulda been smart and same with taking the +1.5 on the Brew Crew but RL's always seem to screw me. GL!
 

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