Handicap this bet for me (NFL Super Bowl winner / NE Patriots and Randy Moss)

Short background - I live in MN and my uncle and I have always disagreed on Randy Moss' ability to help a team. My uncle is a big hater and says any team with Moss on it will never win a Super Bowl, I say that's easy to say when Moss has only played on the Vikes and Raiders ever and he could definitely help the right team with a decent QB (Indy, New England, etc), blah blah. So now that he's playing for the Pats, we're looking to set up some sort of bet for what are the odds that Moss will win a Super Bowl.

I think Moss will either win a Super Bowl or get shipped out of NE in 3 years or less, so I'm thinking about offering my uncle a bet that would cover the next 3 seasons. I think I could get my uncle to agree to a much more generous line with a bet that covers 3 seasons rather than until Moss retires, as the time period is definite so someone will get paid by then for sure, and 3 seasons sounds a lot shorter than "potentially 8-10 years" where I think Moss' best chance to win a SB is in the next 3 years anyways.

So essentially what I'm trying to evaluate is Moss' chances of winning a SB
- in the next 3 years,
- in the next 5 years, and
- before he retires

and try to come up with a good line to offer my uncle. We will probably bet in the neighborhood of $1k-5k so it's not a huge bet, but still not insignificant and I'd like to get the better end of this deal if I could.

Moss wins a Super Bowl in the next three years

Id say +350 no less....

As New England are at best +600 to win this Year and presumably your Uncle knows this, accepting a $1000 bet @ +4500 might just suck him in. Wait till New England win a few Games and you get a knee jerk reaction in the SB market, then hedge out for a nice profit. Consider the chances of not only Moss winning again next Year regardless of Team but your Uncle's longevity. Or hedge out immediately and enjoy $250 from Uncle Bollocks. :thumbsup:

Ok maybe this will make things simpler. The easiest way to handicap this bet would be to determine the chance of New England winning the SB in any year over the next 3 years.

A fair bet would have my uncle giving odds to me (i.e. chances of Moss winning a SB in the next 3 years are less than 50%). For example, if the average chance of New England winning the SB in any of the next 3 years is say 15%, then the odds of them not winning in any of the next 3 years are .85*.85*.85=.614125. This number is needed because NE needs to not win the SB in each of the next 3 years for my uncle to win. So a fair bet would then be X(.385875):Y(.614125). Where Y=1, then X=1.5915. Fair odds would then be 1.5915:1 which is approximately 8:5 or +160 for NE (Moss) to win a SB in the next 3 years. Am I right or is this some random faulty logic?

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Which of the following is closest to New England's chances of winning a Super Bowl in any of the next 3 years?

5%, 7.5%, 10%, 12.5%, 15%, 17.5%, 20%, etc.

Moss is a stop gap for this Year, will be traded thereafter. :thumbsup:

Great start for Moss as a Patriot