MistaFlava's MLB MONDAY ***Power Selections*** (Writeups & Analysis)

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MistaFlava's 2007 MLB Record: 35-42 (-13.49 Units)
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My record has been updated. I took buffetgamblers final tabulation of what I had posted this year and this is what he came up with (1-4 day yesterday included with unit size). I don't have a problem posting my record and have never had a problem posting it in the past. I just never posted one in MLB this season so this is a start. Those who follow me know that after my 50 and 100 unit losses in CFB and NFL, I had no problems posting my record with units loss so cut the shit. Anyways, it was a decent day yesterday with the Brewers almost pulling off the impossible and im looking for another strong week.
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Monday, June 18

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Boston Red Sox ML -134 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***

The Boston Red Sox are one of those teams that just doesn't freaking slown down with their hot play. The Sox are coming off a series sweep of the Giants on the weekend and although sweeping other teams is nice, there wasn't much time to think about it because they jumped straight onto a plane and headed to Atlanta for a series against another bunch of underachievers. Now the two teams have already faced each other this season so this is the second go around for most of these guys. The Red Sox are now 7-3 in their last 10 games depsite hitting only .248 (now that is some weird stuff). What that tells me is that for the first time in a long time they are getting some outstanding pitching from most of their starters and their bullpen has been just as good over the last few weeks. On the mound for the Braves today is Chuck James who is coming off a complete beating at the hands of Minnesota. James is 1-3 in six home starts this season with an ERA of 3.08 but WHIP of 1.63. In 2006, the Red Sox walked into this ballpark and swept the Braves away in three straight games which is what I am looking for again. James is getting only 2.0 runs of support per game in his last three starts which is going to be a problem because we all know the Red Sox are going to come at him with their bats. The Sox are hitting .286 on the year against left handed pitchers so tonight should be an interesting night. The Braves are the kind of team you have to hit early and have to hit hard because their bullpen is pretty damn solid and can hold the fort down.

The Atlanta Braves are one of the teams that cost me the most money this season because of their lack of punch late in games and their lack of desire to win in general. The Braves have been a bit better since the return of Chipper Jones but they are still lacking that something you look for in teams you want to bet on. They are now 4-6 in their last 10 games even though they have hit a respectable .263 and had one of the best bullpens in baseball over that time span. They are coming off a series win in Cleveland which could be a positive but they have to face Curt Schilling tonight who has always pitched well in this ballpark. I don't know what it is but Schilling is an impressive 7-3 in 11 career starts at Turner Field with an ERA of 2.64, a WHIP of 1.04 and he has held Braves hitters to only .224 batting in those games. Atlanta is hitting only .241 versus right handed pitchers at home this season and they could be in trouble again tonight as Curt Schilling is coming off a loss in his last start and he has bounced back from losses with three wins this season (at Texas, at Minnesota and at home versus Cleveland). He is a great bounce back guy and seeing how the team won almost all their games since his last start, I have no doubt in my mind he comes in and pitches well tonight. His two visits to this ballpark as a member of the Red Sox were both wins (6-1 in 2004 and 10-7 in 2006).

This is going to be an interesting series because I know the Braves can pull off some wins and I know the Braves can probably win two of the three games. However, with the pitching matchup we have tonight, it is not ideal for anyone who likes the Braves to bet on them at a shorter price like this one...you might as well wait until tomorrow and you'll get some much better lines to bet on and you won't have to fade Curt Schilling who is coming off a loss. Boston has been one of the best short priced favorite to bet on in interleague play as they have won something like 8 of their last 9 with the short price tag. They are also a very impressive 23-4 in their last 27 games versus the National League East which means that the Braves are in big time trouble tonight. You know a team is good when they dominate interleague play and the Red Sox have done just that going 8-2 in their last 10 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record. The Sox are also 5-0 in Schilling's last five starts against the NL East, they are 6-0 in his last six starts as a short priced favorite in interleague play and they have kicked in pretty much all the starts where he is the road favorite. Atlanta on the other hand is 0-6 in their last six home games versus a team with a winning record. The Red Sox have dominated this series and I doubt any of that changes tonight.




Oakland Athletics ML -171 (3 Units)

The Cincinnati Reds at times looked like they could actually win a few games this past weekend but bad pitching took its course and the Reds have now lost four of their last five. In fact they are 5-5 in their last 10 games but have managed to hit only .254 in those games but have actually had better pitching than I originall thought. You have to keep in mind here that this is their first road game in almost two weeks as they are coming off a nine game home stand and I don't know that they can get things going against an Oakland team that is coming off two embarassing home losses. On the mound for Oakland tonight is Joe Blanton who is 2-1 in his last three starts, having allowed only 15 hits in 23.1 innings pitched with an ERA of 1.54 and a WHIP of 0.84. Blanton has been just as good at home as on the road as visiting opposing batters are hitting only .171 against Blanton in this ballpark this season and that can't be good news for a Cincinnati team that hits only .240 versus right handed pitchers on the road this season. Blanton can pitch almost seven innings everytime he goes out there and thats what the A's need because their bullpen has been shaky as of late and they don't want this game coming down to the very end. I think the Reds lineup is going to have problems against a guy who is getting better and better as the season goes along.

It may have come as a shock to some of you that the Oakland A's lost two of three games against the Cardinals after convincingly beating them in Game 1 of that series but you have to remember that Tony Larussa never takes these 'return to Oakland' games lightly and thats pretty much what happened there. I don't know if Eric Chavez is in the lineup tonight but injuries are a big problem with the light hitting Oakland A's but they still find a win to win games so you have to trust that they can do the same against a mediocre pitcher who has been haunted by American League lineups since his move to the NL last season. That pitcher would be the one and only Kyle Lohse who although has pitched well recently, is a guy that used to get demolished in the AL each and every start and I think we see the old Lohse tonight. Well this is the second time since the move where Lohse gets to face an AL lineup and in his first start he got crushed for 5 ER's in 1.1 innings against the Cleveland Indians. Like I said, Lohse has actually pitched pretty damn well as of late but much like Blanton he gets virtually no run support (only 3.0 runs per game in last three starts) so this game still comes down to smaller variables. Despite hitting only .256 on the year, the A's are not in bad company tonight as Cincinnati hits even lighter at .255. So seeing how things are pretty even on all fronts, you have to like Oakland coming off those losses and with Blanton on the mound at this price against a guy who used to be one of the best fades around when he was in the AL.

Just to let you all know, these two teams have met a grand total of six times and the Oakland Athletics have won all six times so there is some kind of advantage in betting on these guys in this matchup. Both teams are very light hitting so that would obviously favor the home team in this case because they know this ballpark better and they have the better starting pitcher going to the mound. Cincinnati, believe it or not, is 2-8 in Kyle Lohse's last 10 starts, they are 1-5 in his last five road starts and a whopping 0-7 in his last seven starts versus a team with a winning record. That goes back to what I was talking about earlier about Lohse not being able to beat better lineups and collecting most of his good stats against weaker teams. Prior to losing against last night, Oakland had won five straight games coming off a loss so that still makes them 5-1 after losing the night before. They are also the kind of team that has actually been profitbale with shitty prices in interleague play winning 20 of their last 25 as a high priced favorite in interleague play. Blanton has been a guy who has often carried a high price tag but it has been well deserved and he has been cash money with them. Well Oakland has dominated this series with good pitching in the past and although their offense is missing quite a few guys, I think they can pull this one off tonight.



:toast:
 

Mila Kunis.... why I watch bad movies
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Didn't the Reds sweep the A's in the 1990 World Series?

with my favorite player ever, eric davis!

what memories. i won a ton by having the reds and 5 games or under on the series.
 

Handicapping Machine
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thanks guys...would like to cash my College World Series bet first...GL to all!
 

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