Red Sox @ Braves
With the recent tear the Yankees have been on, one would think that an inflow of public money would temporarily shift from the Red Sox to the Yankees, but that simply has not been the case, as the Mets have been the monetary substitution for fickle Yankee bettors. Tonight is the 13<SUP>th</SUP> straight game in which the Red Sox are favored, and 22<SUP>nd</SUP> out of their last 23 games. During that 22 game span, the Red Sox average lay price has been an astounding -150, a price that makes it hard for even the team with the best record in baseball to grind out a positive ROI, as a 13-9 record during that span generated a break even return. Tonight they send Schilling to the mound as a road favorite who is in a bounce back spot. This is the fourth bounce back opportunity for Schilling this year, as this is the fourth time this season he makes a start coming off a five run allowed performance. In the previous three outings, he bounced back nicely with a seven inning one run performance in each start. That said, we might have seen the best of Schilling this season, as he started off last year in similar dominating fashion, and fell of the face of the earth during the second half of last year. Schilling has shown signs of the same thing happening this year, as even with this close no hit bid a couple of weeks back, Schilling just hasn’t been fooling many hitters of late, allowing 54 hits in 43 starts. Despite putting forth solid numbers against a few Braves veterans, most of those numbers were accumulated when he was a more effective pitcher. Schilling’s innings pitches per start and pitchers per game has dropped over his last seven outings as well, so asking more from the under belly of the Red Sox bullpen may occur once again in his start. With Okijima pitching three straight outings, and Timlin struggling since his return, Schillings recent drop out rate may prove to be a liability. The Braves hitting has struggled of late, but have shown some signs of a potential break out, despite facing no shortage of quality of pitchers, having to face Santana, Sabathia and Carmona in three of their last four outings.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
> </o>
This is a bounce back for James as well, as he is coming off a start in which he allowed six runs and three home runs. However, prior to that start, James has appeared to regain his confidence, mechanics, and his effective change up, allowing three runs or less in seven straight outings. However, during those solid starts, James generated a concerning trait that may prove costly in this game, as he appeared to be pitching more for the strike out than for contact in those outings. Although it benefited him in the terms of putting forth seven quality starts and an improved strike out rate, it also increased his walk total per batter faced, a liability that can be magnified against arguably the most patient lineup in the game. The Red Sox used to be vulnerable to southpaws in recent years, but that simply has not been the case this year, as their average, sabermetric numbers and power numbers are better against lefties than righties this year. James’s deceptive delivery has been more of a problem for right handed hitters in his career, so do not automatically rule out Ortiz for this game. James is not an innings eater, and the underbelly of the Braves bullpen struggled against the Red Sox last year.
<o> </o>
Books have been artificially inflating Red Sox line at the open from 10 to 20 cents each game. Still being able to generate a positive ROI, public money has been not been conscientious of the price, as public money has increased Red Sox line on an average of 8 cents off the open. Despite winning 60% of their games in their last 22, it is apparent that this double inflating effect has caught up to them, as that winning percentage was unable to generate a positive ROI. One could probably assume this game does not provide differing characteristics, as Schilling is a public darling, while the norm 8 cent increase in price since the open is in effect once again.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Royals @ Cardinals
It is always interesting to dissect the dynamics of a rematch of the same team and pitchers of last week and analyze both the linesmakers and public perception of the game. Last week when Wainwright and the Cardinals went to <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City> to play the Royals, Wainwright was perceived by books as a young pitcher with a lot of upside, yet has been struggling this year in the starting role. They made him a -110 favorite, yet publics perception was more bearish on the young arm, as they saw no end of the sophomore slump in site, as they made a rare and bold move and backed the roles, closing the Cardinals out as a small underdog. However, Perez’s struggles against the Cardinals remained, while Wainwright finally pitched to his potential, by allowing just one hit in eight innings against the Royals. Normally when a road team that opens at a -110 favorite, you will see them as a -150 favorite at home given the same pitching match. The home field adjustment for both pitchers and teams on an aggregate level shows on the surface that no adjustment of the 40 basis point transfer should apply, and books adjusted accordingly with opening the Cardinals up as a -151 favorite. However, being as fickle as the public is, they now see the Cardinals undervalued off the open, and bumped them to a -160 favorite. However, can one still make a case for the Cardinals being undervalued? Wainwright is slowly readjusting back to the starting role, while his curveball is returning to dominant form, as the contact rate from that pitch is finally starting to resemble last years rate. He has allowed two runs or less in five of his last seven starts. The biggest sign that Wainwright may be back to form is the notion that going into this season, he was perceived by many scouts as a top five dominant pitcher against right handed hitters. Earlier this year, he was being torched by such hitters, who at one point were hitting over .360 against him. However, in his last 50 at bats against right handed hitters, they have managed to hit a just a .240 clip. The Royals are an ideal match up for Wainwright, as the lack the ideal patience to force Wainwright into a fastball count, and the lack of patience may not take advantage of his propensity to walk a high rate of hitters. Playing in the NL will more than likely take Sweeney out of the lineup today. Wainwright’s decreased pitches per inning in his last seven outings can prove to be a big advantage, as he is backed by an overworked bullpen.
<o> </o>
Perez is clearly still miles away from the pitcher he once was. His stuff has depreciated significantly over the last three years, his mechanics are off, and his lack of confidence on the mound can not be ignored. Having to face a team that has scored 39 runs in 36 innings against you only increases the potential disaster rate. The Cardinals will more than like put seven right handers to the plate to take advantage of the recent dominance right handers have over Perez. None will be more of a factor than Pujols, who has managed 14 hits in 19 at bats against him. With Rolen and his 6 for 16 and 9 well hit balls against Perez, the southpaw will lack much wiggle room. One thing favoring Perez and the Royals is the improved depth and productivity of the Royals bullpen that gives them the leverage in pulling the plug earlier than his past outings.
<o> </o>
Last week Wainwright and the Cardinals proved to be a solid bet, as it is not often to you get a team as an underdog going up against the Royals and a pitcher that has been owned his opponent. However, now you have a 60 cent transfer, 40 coming from the home field shift, and 20 coming from past mispricing, public perception and recent form. Do the Cardinals still have value left in them?
With the recent tear the Yankees have been on, one would think that an inflow of public money would temporarily shift from the Red Sox to the Yankees, but that simply has not been the case, as the Mets have been the monetary substitution for fickle Yankee bettors. Tonight is the 13<SUP>th</SUP> straight game in which the Red Sox are favored, and 22<SUP>nd</SUP> out of their last 23 games. During that 22 game span, the Red Sox average lay price has been an astounding -150, a price that makes it hard for even the team with the best record in baseball to grind out a positive ROI, as a 13-9 record during that span generated a break even return. Tonight they send Schilling to the mound as a road favorite who is in a bounce back spot. This is the fourth bounce back opportunity for Schilling this year, as this is the fourth time this season he makes a start coming off a five run allowed performance. In the previous three outings, he bounced back nicely with a seven inning one run performance in each start. That said, we might have seen the best of Schilling this season, as he started off last year in similar dominating fashion, and fell of the face of the earth during the second half of last year. Schilling has shown signs of the same thing happening this year, as even with this close no hit bid a couple of weeks back, Schilling just hasn’t been fooling many hitters of late, allowing 54 hits in 43 starts. Despite putting forth solid numbers against a few Braves veterans, most of those numbers were accumulated when he was a more effective pitcher. Schilling’s innings pitches per start and pitchers per game has dropped over his last seven outings as well, so asking more from the under belly of the Red Sox bullpen may occur once again in his start. With Okijima pitching three straight outings, and Timlin struggling since his return, Schillings recent drop out rate may prove to be a liability. The Braves hitting has struggled of late, but have shown some signs of a potential break out, despite facing no shortage of quality of pitchers, having to face Santana, Sabathia and Carmona in three of their last four outings.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>This is a bounce back for James as well, as he is coming off a start in which he allowed six runs and three home runs. However, prior to that start, James has appeared to regain his confidence, mechanics, and his effective change up, allowing three runs or less in seven straight outings. However, during those solid starts, James generated a concerning trait that may prove costly in this game, as he appeared to be pitching more for the strike out than for contact in those outings. Although it benefited him in the terms of putting forth seven quality starts and an improved strike out rate, it also increased his walk total per batter faced, a liability that can be magnified against arguably the most patient lineup in the game. The Red Sox used to be vulnerable to southpaws in recent years, but that simply has not been the case this year, as their average, sabermetric numbers and power numbers are better against lefties than righties this year. James’s deceptive delivery has been more of a problem for right handed hitters in his career, so do not automatically rule out Ortiz for this game. James is not an innings eater, and the underbelly of the Braves bullpen struggled against the Red Sox last year.
<o
> </o>Books have been artificially inflating Red Sox line at the open from 10 to 20 cents each game. Still being able to generate a positive ROI, public money has been not been conscientious of the price, as public money has increased Red Sox line on an average of 8 cents off the open. Despite winning 60% of their games in their last 22, it is apparent that this double inflating effect has caught up to them, as that winning percentage was unable to generate a positive ROI. One could probably assume this game does not provide differing characteristics, as Schilling is a public darling, while the norm 8 cent increase in price since the open is in effect once again.
<o
> </o><o
> </o><o
> </o><o
> </o>Royals @ Cardinals
It is always interesting to dissect the dynamics of a rematch of the same team and pitchers of last week and analyze both the linesmakers and public perception of the game. Last week when Wainwright and the Cardinals went to <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City> to play the Royals, Wainwright was perceived by books as a young pitcher with a lot of upside, yet has been struggling this year in the starting role. They made him a -110 favorite, yet publics perception was more bearish on the young arm, as they saw no end of the sophomore slump in site, as they made a rare and bold move and backed the roles, closing the Cardinals out as a small underdog. However, Perez’s struggles against the Cardinals remained, while Wainwright finally pitched to his potential, by allowing just one hit in eight innings against the Royals. Normally when a road team that opens at a -110 favorite, you will see them as a -150 favorite at home given the same pitching match. The home field adjustment for both pitchers and teams on an aggregate level shows on the surface that no adjustment of the 40 basis point transfer should apply, and books adjusted accordingly with opening the Cardinals up as a -151 favorite. However, being as fickle as the public is, they now see the Cardinals undervalued off the open, and bumped them to a -160 favorite. However, can one still make a case for the Cardinals being undervalued? Wainwright is slowly readjusting back to the starting role, while his curveball is returning to dominant form, as the contact rate from that pitch is finally starting to resemble last years rate. He has allowed two runs or less in five of his last seven starts. The biggest sign that Wainwright may be back to form is the notion that going into this season, he was perceived by many scouts as a top five dominant pitcher against right handed hitters. Earlier this year, he was being torched by such hitters, who at one point were hitting over .360 against him. However, in his last 50 at bats against right handed hitters, they have managed to hit a just a .240 clip. The Royals are an ideal match up for Wainwright, as the lack the ideal patience to force Wainwright into a fastball count, and the lack of patience may not take advantage of his propensity to walk a high rate of hitters. Playing in the NL will more than likely take Sweeney out of the lineup today. Wainwright’s decreased pitches per inning in his last seven outings can prove to be a big advantage, as he is backed by an overworked bullpen.<o
> </o>Perez is clearly still miles away from the pitcher he once was. His stuff has depreciated significantly over the last three years, his mechanics are off, and his lack of confidence on the mound can not be ignored. Having to face a team that has scored 39 runs in 36 innings against you only increases the potential disaster rate. The Cardinals will more than like put seven right handers to the plate to take advantage of the recent dominance right handers have over Perez. None will be more of a factor than Pujols, who has managed 14 hits in 19 at bats against him. With Rolen and his 6 for 16 and 9 well hit balls against Perez, the southpaw will lack much wiggle room. One thing favoring Perez and the Royals is the improved depth and productivity of the Royals bullpen that gives them the leverage in pulling the plug earlier than his past outings.
<o
> </o>Last week Wainwright and the Cardinals proved to be a solid bet, as it is not often to you get a team as an underdog going up against the Royals and a pitcher that has been owned his opponent. However, now you have a 60 cent transfer, 40 coming from the home field shift, and 20 coming from past mispricing, public perception and recent form. Do the Cardinals still have value left in them?
