two today w/analysis

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+3.10 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">51</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">39</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+53.62 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">111</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">126</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+23.53 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

Florida +1.23 over CHICAGO
The South Side is favored here because why? We’re very aware that Josh Johnson is making his first start since Sept. of ’06 but so what. Johnson has tremendous stuff and made three rehab starts before reaching this point but lets back up a bit. In 24 starts last season as a rookie, Johnson went 12-7 with an ERA of 3.10. The league hit just .236 off him and he struck out 133 in 157 frames. Then on Sept. 12, 2006 he suddenly left the game with a stiff biceps muscle after allowing three hits in five scoreless innings against the Mets. Season over. In his three rehab starts this season Johnson gave up just only three runs in 15.1 innings with 16 strikeouts and five walks. Enter the White Sox, a team that every pitcher in the business would love to face every day. Chicago is showing less interest then Siegfried and Roy at a nanny convention. They’re hitting a combined .233 and they’ve lost 17 of its last 21. In 27 innings at his home park, Jose Contreras has a 5.86 ERA and the league is hitting .286 off him. He’s been hit hard in five straight games and the White Sox have won just five times in 13 tries when he’s started. When the White Sox are favored you can almost always pencil us in on the pooch and you can triple those sentiments when a quality pitcher like Johnson is going. The motivation factor hugely favors Johnson and the Marlins and so does everything else. Play: Florida +1.23 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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MILWAUKEE –1½ +1.75 over San Francisco
The Brewers, after a very rough stretch, are back on track after taking two out of three in Minnesota and winning five of its last seven games. Furthermore, they scored 25 times over the weekend and they’ve now scored 43 times in that seven game stretch. They also took two out of three in Detroit so playing the Giants after facing Detroit and Minnesota might just appear in slow motion for the Brewers. By contrast, the Giants have scored just 21 times over their last nine ball games, winning just twice over that stretch. The Brewers have called up their #1 prospect for this start in Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo went 8-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 starts for Nashville. In 77.2 innings, he was leading all of minor league baseball with 110 strikeouts. He surrendered just 53 hits in those 77 innings while walking just 28 batters and just four of those hits went yard. The Brewers are 10-3 at home vs lefties and will face one here in Noah Lowry, who has had noting but trouble in this park. In fact, Lowry has pitched twice at Miller Park and was smoked both times leading to an ERA of 7.84. However, that’s not what this is about but it’s worth noting that Lowry has one road win in five starts and is walking far too many batters. This is about playing against the reeling Giants with a rejuvenated Brewers team, who should be a little extra motivated here for a number of reasons. They’re in first place and Gallardo could be a huge link in their quest to reach the playoffs. Secondly, a sell-out crowd will very likely be on hand to see Barry Bonds, who incidentally is a huge liability in the field. Nobody is rooting for Bonds, not even his teammates and that, too, has taken its toll on this struggling intruder. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +1.75 (Risking 2 units).
 

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