Tuesday Thought - 1game

Had this team today and its the only game I hit going 1-3. Going back to the well maybe here.

Brewers ML(-170):

Still debating Brewers -1 or just Brewers ML

Giants on the road are now 14-22 and have lost 5 games in a row. Brewers are 23-12 at home and have now won 6 of their last 8 games.

I have interest here because Lincecum has not been sharp as of late.

@Phi = ND: 6.2ip, 7h, 6er, 1bb, 6k
Oak = ND: 4.2ip, 4h, 3er, 5bb, 3k
Tor = L: 3.2ip, 7h, 7er, 4bb, 6k

Lincecum on the road: 1-0, 3.58era, 4g, 27.2ip, 19h, 11er, 6bb, 30k.. Batters hitting .186 off him

He is 0-1 in his last 3 starts but has given up 16er, he has gotten run support in those games so the L column didn't accumulate like it prob should have. I must say that his road numbers are not bad at all and pretty much he averages 7ip-5h-3er-1.5bb-7k (rounded #'s). Giants are 3-5 when Lincecum pitches.

Sheets will take the mound for the Brew Crew and he is 2-0 w/ 1.45era in his last 3 starts.

Sheets at home: 4-1, 2.91era, 7g, 46.1ip, 48h, 15er, 7bb, 27k... Batters hitting .258 off him.
Sheets career vs. SF: 2-2, 2.84era, 5g, 38ip, 25h, 12er, 9bb, 29k

He has won his last 2 starts vs. the Giants. Brewers are 8-6 when Sheets pitches but 7-2 in his last 9 starts.

Sheets has gone 11 straight starts with giving up 3er or less.

At home this yr he gave up 5er (CHC) 2nd start of the yr and 3er (ATL) on 5/29. The other 5 home starts, he has given up 2er or less.

Lincecum has given up 3er or more in 5 starts this yr out of 8 total.

Brewers ML = hotter team (6 of last 8wins), home team (23-12), better offense (#13), better SP, slightly better bullpen vs. Cold team (lost 5 straight), away team (14-22), worse offense (#26), worse SP and worse bullpen.

Brewers have now won 5 straight vs Giants at home.

I am begging anyone to talk me out of this game, anything I touch right now turns to mush and this might be the only game I go near.

Like I said before, out of Lincecums 8 starts this yr, he has given up 3er or more in 5 of them. The three games he gave up 2er or less came against Houston twice (#19 offense) and Colorodo (#9offense) and they all came in a row. Following that stretch of 3 games he has given up 3,6,3,7er.

Alright so now you have to talk how the Giants win this game. IMO it is not trading runs back and forth. Its with Lincecum looking like Justin Verlander the Second vs. the Brewers and holding the offense down to 2er or less over 7 or more innings. I think Sheets shows up and that means you are not going to get more than 3er off him, especially since the Giants have trouble hitting everything right now. Please, anyone who likes the Giants tomorrow, talk me out of this game. The line has dropped from -177 to -170 so I guess some "sharps" like SF. Again, someone tell me why/how the Giants win here.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

<!-- / message --><!-- sig --><!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

Just a few more notes to add here about this game..I would love for anyone to argue for the Giants because I have been MUSH lately.

Giants are losers of 17 of their last 23 games.

Lincecum WHIP has gone from 1.27 this yr to 1.91 over his last 3 games.

Giants have lost Lincecum's last 4 starts.

HELLO JERRY said:

Giants win tomorrow by the score of 4-2

kid has electric stuff and I see him boucning back going 7 IP, 5 hits, 3 walks, and 8 K

"If you LINCE it, they will CUM"

go giants !!:aktion033

Click to expand...

And how many er?


Thanks

I know this Crew team and they are loose again and playing good ball. Expect a great effort from Sheets as his last gem was ruined by Cordero in Texas.

Weeks is back and look for a solid game by the Crew tonight.

Giants can't win on the road... nuff said

Kid - I actually liked Weeks out of the lineup since his .230 average wasn't doing much to help the team and he is a first pitch swinger at anything. Just my observations from the beginning of the yr but you would know better than I.

Senior - I agree, they are a very bad road team but my luck lately has been only bad so this is the day they will go out and get a shutout from Lincecum and win 1-0.

It looks like easy bet in favor of Milwaukee,no doubt,BUT...since the Giants injured and facing already 5 losing games i will not touch this one.when i see long winning or losing streaks i stay away.easpecially with baseball.

Betting4Fun said:

It looks like easy bet in favor of Milwaukee,no doubt,BUT...since the Giants injured and facing already 5 losing games i will not touch this one.when i see long winning or losing streaks i stay away.easpecially with baseball.

Click to expand...

I can see that but I've found this season atleast, its best to be betting with the streak then against it. You have a point though. However, Giants struggles in the last month and on the road are too much for me to ignore right now. They have been shutout 3 of their last 10 games, they average 2.5runs/game in that same span, and they are hitting RHP at .215 over the last 10 games. Those numbers are hard to back regardless of who they are pitching and facing. I don't see this as an easy bet though, something tells me its a 4-3, 4-2, 3-1, type game, but all that really matters is if the Brewers win or not.

everythingthatsgreen said:

I can see that but I've found this season atleast, its best to be betting with the streak then against it. You have a point though. However, Giants struggles in the last month and on the road are too much for me to ignore right now. They have been shutout 3 of their last 10 games, they average 2.5runs/game in that same span, and they are hitting RHP at .215 over the last 10 games. Those numbers are hard to back regardless of who they are pitching and facing. I don't see this as an easy bet though, something tells me its a 4-3, 4-2, 3-1, type game, but all that really matters is if the Brewers win or not.

Click to expand...

Well on that note since all you are after is a win regardless of the odds
why not considering SDP vs Baltimore tonight?Baltimore on long losing streak of 8 games playing vs a solid pitcher at home and despite +223 offered for Baltimore i dont see any takers anywhere,the value bettors stay away,so what would be your take on this one?

Betting4Fun said:

Well on that note since all you are after is a win regardless of the odds
why not considering SDP vs Baltimore tonight?Baltimore on long losing streak of 8 games playing vs a solid pitcher at home and despite +223 offered for Baltimore i dont see any takers anywhere,the value bettors stay away,so what would be your take on this one?

Click to expand...

I do have some sort of limit here. -164 for the Brewers vs. -245 for the Padres, they are not even in the same class imo.

Betting4Fun said:

Well on that note since all you are after is a win regardless of the odds
why not considering SDP vs Baltimore tonight?Baltimore on long losing streak of 8 games playing vs a solid pitcher at home and despite +223 offered for Baltimore i dont see any takers anywhere,the value bettors stay away,so what would be your take on this one?

Click to expand...

To add to that, I am kind of confused at how you see these two games in the same light. I didn't say I am after a win regardless of the odds, I said

I don't see this as an easy bet though, something tells me its a 4-3, 4-2, 3-1, type game, but all that really matters is if the Brewers win or not.

Click to expand...

Meaning, if I had the Brewers, all that really matters at the end of the game is the result but I don't think it will come easy.

Now why won't I back the Padres at -245, lets see here, anytime you have the #29 offense in baseball, that is the worst in the NL, run support doesn't come easy. That is why the RL even at -245ML is still only -120. These situations are not even close to similar. Baltimore despite losing 8 in a row still has a better offense than SD, a worse bullpen, a worse starting pitcher, and a fired manager. I don't want to go within 10 feet of this game.

everythingthatsgreen said:

To add to that, I am kind of confused at how you see these two games in the same light. I didn't say I am after a win regardless of the odds, I said



Meaning, if I had the Brewers, all that really matters at the end of the game is the result but I don't think it will come easy.

Now why won't I back the Padres at -245, lets see here, anytime you have the #29 offense in baseball, that is the worst in the NL, run support doesn't come easy. That is why the RL even at -245ML is still only -120. These situations are not even close to similar. Baltimore despite losing 8 in a row still has a better offense than SD, a worse bullpen, a worse starting pitcher, and a fired manager. I don't want to go within 10 feet of this game.

Click to expand...

Thanks for that
For the same reason i will not touch Brewers tonight either,just the kind of trap out there.move to the next trap,Oakland vs Cincinnati,how about this one,out of the 3 mentioned seem to be more likely to happen since the red didnt beat oakland over a decade if i recall correct and none of the teams facing long winning or losing streaks right now.

I do wish you best of luck tonight ,do not get me wrong

Betting4Fun said:

Thanks for that
For the same reason i will not touch Brewers tonight either,just the kind of trap out there.move to the next trap,Oakland vs Cincinnati,how about this one,out of the 3 mentioned seem to be more likely to happen since the red didnt beat oakland over a decade if i recall correct and none of the teams facing long winning or losing streaks right now.

I do wish you best of luck tonight ,do not get me wrong

Click to expand...

Moving on, Maybe the Over in Oakland if I touched totals but at this point right now my confidence has taken a hit. The truth is that the A's are 8-0 in Gaudin's last 8 starts but he has not been sharp at all. While he sports a 2.85era on the yr he also sports a 5.06era in his last 3 games covering 16ip, 13bb and 7k...Lastly his whip on the yr is 1.41 but over his last 3 games is 2.25....

At this point right now, I can not justify paying -191 for him, in addition to a line movement from -170 and the A's have now scored 6 or more runs in their last 6 games. That offense is simply not built for that and can not maintain that. Bailey is a pitcher they have never seen and it is a pitcher friendly park for the fly ball pitching Bailey, he has a fighting chance there. Of course, Reds bullpen is awful and the offense doesn't always show up but no way I pay that much for Gaudin at the moment.. Next game? :thumbsup:

Ok ,since you asking and i enjoy your input lets move to LAA vs Astros tonight,i am just trying to find games which seem to me similar to the one of Mil and SFG and honestly i do enjoy your answers so bring them on

To add to your Padres suggestion, the RL would be the only reasonable way to hit that game, yes reasonable, and in Peavy's 14 starts this yr, the Padres have covered the RL just 5 times or 35%, not a number I want to be messing with, especially with the #29 offense in baseball

Betting4Fun said:

Ok ,since you asking and i enjoy your input lets move to LAA vs Astros tonight,i am just trying to find games which seem to me similar to the one of Mil and SFG and honestly i do enjoy your answers so bring them on

Click to expand...

Over 9 would be the only way I see this game. If the Astros couldn't pull off the win last night, how do they do it tonight. Angels are a DOMINANT home team (25-9) and if this number is correct, 7-0 in the last 7 series at game 2. Jennings is a 5inning pitcher and nothing more, you can write that down today, he doesn't go more than 5ip and there are concerns about his shoulder so he will be watched closely and they will prob even limit his pitch count a little. That right there rules out any chance the Astros have because now the bullpen has to labor for atleast 4 innings? As for Colon, he has not been good either and although he is pitching at home he has been getting a lot of run support. The Astros have a lineup that can hit, putting up 5er or more in 6 of their last 7 games so it was strange to me when they spent all that time missing the ball but seems in the last week or so they woke up. Each team can put 4 up on their opponent here by the 5th or 6th inning, just my opinion there..

everythingthatsgreen said:

Over 9 would be the only way I see this game. If the Astros couldn't pull off the win last night, how do they do it tonight. Angels are a DOMINANT home team (25-9) and if this number is correct, 7-0 in the last 7 series at game 2. Jennings is a 5inning pitcher and nothing more, you can write that down today, he doesn't go more than 5ip and there are concerns about his shoulder so he will be watched closely and they will prob even limit his pitch count a little. That right there rules out any chance the Astros have because now the bullpen has to labor for atleast 4 innings? As for Colon, he has not been good either and although he is pitching at home he has been getting a lot of run support. The Astros have a lineup that can hit, putting up 5er or more in 6 of their last 7 games so it was strange to me when they spent all that time missing the ball but seems in the last week or so they woke up. Each team can put 4 up on their opponent here by the 5th or 6th inning, just my opinion there..

Click to expand...

Thanks for the heads up,i can get over 8.5 at BetFair at -130 or -112 for over 9 at Pinnacle,which line of the two would you recommend?i think i will tail you on Milwuakee tonight too :thumbsup:

Betting4Fun said:

Thanks for the heads up,i can get over 8.5 at BetFair at -130 or -112 for over 9 at Pinnacle,which line of the two would you recommend?i think i will tail you on Milwuakee tonight too :thumbsup:

Click to expand...

lol, I want to advise you first, I have been cold as hell lately, I don't know why, I do my share of research yet its not paying off for me. So you might win if you took SF.

As far as your lines, 8.5 -130 or 9-112...

If it lands on 8, you are going to lose anyway whether you had 8.5 or 9 but that is a lot of juice to drop at 8.5-130 and there is no push available. At 9-112, you still have the option of a push, you don't get juiced to death either, although it is a higher number, I tend it feel it is more safe.

I would look into ump and weather before making this play even though everything is there with these two starting pitchers. Both teams are hitting RHP very well, Astros = .320 L10 games and Angels = .325 L10 games. You just don't want an ump with a large strike zone bailing these two pitchers out of trouble. Its pretty hot and humid all over the US so the weather if anything should favor the over.

Awesome,thanks for your time,since you are rock solid on the brewers i ll join you tonight,worse come to worse we lose it..LOL

BOL tonight

everythingthatsgreen said:

To add to that, I am kind of confused at how you see these two games in the same light. I didn't say I am after a win regardless of the odds, I said



Meaning, if I had the Brewers, all that really matters at the end of the game is the result but I don't think it will come easy.

Now why won't I back the Padres at -245, lets see here, anytime you have the #29 offense in baseball, that is the worst in the NL, run support doesn't come easy. That is why the RL even at -245ML is still only -120. These situations are not even close to similar. Baltimore despite losing 8 in a row still has a better offense than SD, a worse bullpen, a worse starting pitcher, and a fired manager. I don't want to go within 10 feet of this game.

Click to expand...

O`s DON`T have a better O, better BA yes, HR no, runs no, RPG no. Given the huge SP disparity I have no prob. playing SD RL. Next to Tx, Bal worst rd. tm. in the AL. SD tied w/Mil. best HR, in NL. I may lose but I`d rather have SD than the other side all day.