Tuesday Bases (36-39 +20.70 Units YTD)

36-39 +20.70 Units YTD

5 Units - 7-1 (+29.34 Units)
4 Units - 2-2 (-.68)
3 Units - 9-6 (+10.20)
2 Units - 7-18 (-19.25)
1 Unit - 11-12 (+1.19)

Wanted to post my record in my title once before I go back big time in the negative haha... Well my stretch of about 8 winning days in a row was ended last night and the dream is probably coming to an end, it was probably more like 4 days and I am probably exaggerating, but it was fun while it lasted.

San Fran +161 (Lincecum) 4 Units Man did I want to drop a 5 unit play on this right here. Lincecum hasn't pitched like he is capable in his last couple of starts but do not be fooled he can get people out and I really think he rebounds and has a monster start tomorrow. He is going against Sheets which blows balls since I love betting on Sheets, and usually losing money, but I can't ignore this kids stuff at this number. The Giants have struggled offensively and that means that I have a lot of faith of this kid holding down the Brew Crew...

Phillies +117 (Kendrick) 3 Units Stanford sucks balls and Kendrick is dynamite. I could go into depth with this but I will stay on the surface. Stanford is a journeymen who has never been awful but also never been great in the minors. IMO he will actually stick in the big leagues and be a very reliable 4th or 5th starter but this is where I am going to really make you think I am crazy. Kendrick is a kid who had high hopes when he was drafted and honestly just didn't figure it out right away. He wasn't even on the radar or the 40 man roster for the Phils but he managed to get called up. He had a monster break out season in the minors and really seemed to figure it out. His biggest struggle is staying in the strike zone BUT he has really good control of his pitches. He doesn't miss over the plate often and he can strike you out in a big time spot. This game will be high scoring but Kendrick has a chance to really showcase himself today, and I think he will.

Minnesota Twins -134 (Johan) 5 Units The Mets are struggling and this is Johan. Johan is a notorious slow starter and this year hasn't been any different. This is the best pitcher in the league, hands down, and him with this number against a team playing average baseball right now is a laugher. Johan can shut down an all-star team on any given night and I really expect him to do the same today. I am tempted to do another 5 unit -1.5 bet as well on this game but am not that confident in the Twins offense. Johan rolls and pitches 8, I think this will be his best performance of the year and possibly get his ERA back below 3, where it belongs. Lets remember this is the national league... he should dominate this league.

Dodgers -127 (Penny) 3 Units Didn't Penny just shut down this same lineup two starts ago? I am so confused at this line that it has actually scared me backwards to betting only 3 units. Penny is 8-1 and possibly the best pitcher in the NL and this is the type of respect he gets going against an average, to bad team, in the NL? I just don't get it.

Boston Red Sox -122 (Beckett) 2 Units I bet against him last time out and I hit it right on the knob. But this guy will not struggle in back to back starts IMO especially against a team that he should be able to dominate. Beckett's line is lower then it should be because he struggled last outing and because Hudson is a big name, but this is a complete mismatch on the field.

Chicago White Sox +100 (Danks) 2 Units Been fading my guys for a while and besides the fact that they still struggled in relief and made base running blunders tonight, they showed some fire and had some big time clutch hits. I think the Sox are about to go on a run and rip off about 5-8 in a row and I think it started tonight. I am pretty good at predicting this team so I am hoping I am correct. They need to cut down on the mistakes but the defense and clutch hitting was phenomenal tonight and if that can carry over they should win tomorrow.

Reds +164 (Bailey) 2 Units He is out of Cincinnati's hitters park and now in a pitchers park. I think the pitchers are a wash in this contest and actually think Bailey has a chance to outpitch Gaudin in his second outing and I think the Reds offense, which struggles at times, is the difference in this game. Bailey should be able to hold down the A's.

That is it... a monster card... I am probably about to drop back in the red after today I got a bad feeling haha..

GL guys

I guess the potential for Lincecum is there but outside of his 2 starts against the Astros he hasnt showcased anything close to ace type performances. Right now hes no better than Adam Eaton.

Chargers kill the Bears in week one!!

twins game is tough...gl bro

I am leaning opposite here with the Brewers. I think the only way the Giants win is if Lincecum throws 7ip-2er of baseball or better. Their offense is just too bad/cold to get to Sheets who has been pretty dominant at home (5 of 7 starts giving up 2er or less) and I think it is 10 straight starts giving up 3er or less.

smartz said:

I guess the potential for Lincecum is there but outside of his 2 starts against the Astros he hasnt showcased anything close to ace type performances. Right now hes no better than Adam Eaton.

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I wouldn't say that. When getting a line like that you have to bet on potential. If this kid and comes out and showcases his true abilities this could be a very easy win. Here is how I am looking at this, 4 of his 8 starts have been great/good, and by that I mean 7 IP 3ER or less... and 4 have been bad and in those starts, lets face it, the kid has lost a sense for the strike zone. If he is in the zone the odds are I am going to grab this win but if he isn't I could struggle. I am saying I have a 50% chance of winning this play but the line is telling me something much different. I am getting great value on the play. I have faith in his outright abilities... and think he has the ability to shut down any given lineup. What is a big helper is that he is going up against a young line up as well. The veterans have hurt him and the patient lineups... Toronto and Oakland are two great examples. They both have players that love to get deep into counts and take pitches. Whether they walk or not is irrelevant because taking this kid deep into a count is where he seems to struggle. The kid has a shot to shut this lineup down and the Brewers youthfulness could hurt them.

everythingthatsgreen said:

I am leaning opposite here with the Brewers. I think the only way the Giants win is if Lincecum throws 7ip-2er of baseball or better. Their offense is just too bad/cold to get to Sheets who has been pretty dominant at home (5 of 7 starts giving up 2er or less) and I think it is 10 straight starts giving up 3er or less.

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In all honesty that is what I am expecting from the kid tomorrow. It just all adds up to that but I could be way off so don't get me wrong. I am just saying it all adds to a possible gem by the kid... and I do understand there is a possibility he gets lit up.

gynecologist said:

Chargers kill the Bears in week one!!

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Probably haha... Well IDK it depends on a few things...

Does Rex really adjust and learn and grow? Or does he pout and is he really topped off and not getting better?

And is Briggs playing or isn't he playing...? The addition of Archuleta i think is much bigger then most think. Brown can now play more coverage and he has someone else who can stop the run. And now their secondary has two good safeties and two good CB's... We'll see GL to you bro

Well I might as well bet big on Daniel Cabrera and Adam Eaton every start then. I mean there are tons of guys who showcase all world pitching ability but it doesnt always translates to success. Not to say Lincecum wont be good but he certainly isnt pitching like it right now and theres no evidence to suggest he will snap out of it. Maybe he got called up to early.

austintx05 said:

twins game is tough...gl bro

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Honestly I am not looking at any other aspect of the game. My money is in Johan's hands and that is about it. If the he got hurt in the first and the Twins won the game I would be lucky as fuck and wouldn't even be able to pretend like I won the bet...

I think he is too good to be getting this number... I know every pitcher can struggle but he has been the most consistent pitcher in baseball for a while now and expect him to really turn it on heading into the all-star break and after

smartz said:

Well I might as well bet big on Daniel Cabrera and Adam Eaton every start then. I mean there are tons of guys who showcase all world pitching ability but it doesnt always translates to success. Not to say Lincecum wont be good but he certainly isnt pitching like it right now.

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Adam Eaton is not in the same class as this kid...

I will give you Cabrera but his offspeed isn't as good as this kids and Cabrera also has failed at many levels before the big leagues. He struggled with control in the minors and the big leagues and didn't even dominate in the minors.

Lincecum is one of those guys that you know is just going to get it and figure it out. You are acting like I am laying 160 in this game... I am taking this number with a kid with all the talent in the world. His location wasn't great in the minors either but he got people out. He has a lot more talent then both those guys, although they both have a ton, and I truly believe he has about a 50% chance of winning this game and out pitching Ben Sheets... and with that number I can't ignore it...

He has had 4 very good starts and 4 bad ones... Give me a good one kid and we'll win this game...

The other part of the coin is that this game goes beyond starting pitchers. Lincecum can very well go 7ip-2er and lose the game because his offense still has to score on Sheets to win. I am not trying to talk you out of this, I am having a good time debating it because I am considering the other side of this bet

themanej2001 said:

Honestly I am not looking at any other aspect of the game. My money is in Johan's hands and that is about it. If the he got hurt in the first and the Twins won the game I would be lucky as fuck and wouldn't even be able to pretend like I won the bet...

I think he is too good to be getting this number... I know every pitcher can struggle but he has been the most consistent pitcher in baseball for a while now and expect him to really turn it on heading into the all-star break and after

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Sure, in the 2nd half Johan is the man, but look how Hudson out pitched him in the Met. Fatboy Wickman just blew it. Mets bats could wake up, but I respect Johan as well...so I hope he gets you the win.

:toast:

themanej2001 said:

Here is how I am looking at this, 4 of his 8 starts have been great/good, and by that I mean 7 IP 3ER or less...

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Just want to counter with 1 more point, using this standard, Sheets has 12 of 14 starts with 3er or less.

everythingthatsgreen said:

The other part of the coin is that this game goes beyond starting pitchers. Lincecum can very well go 7ip-2er and lose the game because his offense still has to score on Sheets to win. I am not trying to talk you out of this, I am having a good time debating it because I am considering the other side of this bet

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Yes there is another coin but if your worry is Sheets not giving up 2 runs and the possibility of Lincecum giving up 2 ER in 7 innings then your monster bet should be on the under in this game.

I think if the Giants can score 3 Runs in this game I have a good shot at winning but that is an if. There is a reason I am getting juice in this game and it is because of the question marks. But you give me the starting pitcher who pitches better every night and I'll give you a winning handicapper... I am banking on Lincecum out pitching Sheets which is funny because I find them very similar haha...

themanej2001 said:

Adam Eaton is not in the same class as this kid...

I will give you Cabrera but his offspeed isn't as good as this kids and Cabrera also has failed at many levels before the big leagues. He struggled with control in the minors and the big leagues and didn't even dominate in the minors.

Lincecum is one of those guys that you know is just going to get it and figure it out. You are acting like I am laying 160 in this game... I am taking this number with a kid with all the talent in the world. His location wasn't great in the minors either but he got people out. He has a lot more talent then both those guys, although they both have a ton, and I truly believe he has about a 50% chance of winning this game and out pitching Ben Sheets... and with that number I can't ignore it...

He has had 4 very good starts and 4 bad ones... Give me a good one kid and we'll win this game...

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Im acting like your laying 160 because your putting 4units down which happens to be your second biggest play. Im just wondering where that confidence is coming from. Sheets has been fantastic lately. I can see if u throw a unit on him and hope the pitcher he can be comes to play but thats a big wager.

everythingthatsgreen said:

Just want to counter with 1 more point, using this standard, Sheets has 12 of 14 starts with 3er or less.

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Sheets is laying 170 against a young pitcher who has a possibility of throwing a shut out any given night... Sheets is so talented but you need to always look at these possibilities with Ben, and I would know I am a major fan...

1.) He gets injured or feels tightness somewhere in his arm...

2.) He falls in love with the K and throws a ton of pitches

3.) He falls behind in a lot of counts leaving opportunities for the other team...

He is a stud on the hill but he always seems to be bothered by those three things in certain starts. I am hoping one of those starts is tomorrow.

themanej2001 said:

Yes there is another coin but if your worry is Sheets not giving up 2 runs and the possibility of Lincecum giving up 2 ER in 7 innings then your monster bet should be on the under in this game.

I think if the Giants can score 3 Runs in this game I have a good shot at winning but that is an if. There is a reason I am getting juice in this game and it is because of the question marks. But you give me the starting pitcher who pitches better every night and I'll give you a winning handicapper... I am banking on Lincecum out pitching Sheets which is funny because I find them very similar haha...

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I don't bet totals, simple as that. They don't hit for me and so I tend to avoid them.

Now I would like to add that MILW ML = hotter team (6 of last 8wins), home team (23-12), better offense (#13), better SP, slightly better bullpen vs. Cold team (lost 5 straight), away team (14-22), worse offense (#26), worse SP and worse bullpen.

So it is more than SP in that sense. Its more than two even teams out there.

austintx05 said:

Sure, in the 2nd half Johan is the man, but look how Hudson out pitched him in the Met. Fatboy Wickman just blew it. Mets bats could wake up, but I respect Johan as well...so I hope he gets you the win.

:toast:

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Johan starts turning it up around the ASB but he seems to be getting into form right now and getting back to the Johan of the past... Think he has a dynamite performance. This should be another pitchers duel but what is more likely to happen...

- Hudson gives up 0-2ER against a team again when he just saw them...

- Johan gives up 0-2ER against a team again when they just him...?

I will go with Johan and the fact that I don't think he gets out pitched in back to back games by the same pitcher.

I like the play. I had Lincecum +170 v Oswalt. Considering the odds v Sheets, I think it is worth a play.