Twins @ Mets Analysis

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Twins @ Mets
This is an intriguing match up, as it involves two entities that have been appealing to the public bankroll for, yet recent form has forced the public to become gun-shy for both. These two entities in which usually carry inflated price tags are Santana and the New York Mets. Despite putting forth solid numbers in his last ten starts, Santana has been a nightmare investment for his backers in those ten starts, generating a -8.26 unit return during that time frame. The Mets have also been unkind to their backers in their last fourteen games, generating a negative 9.60 unit return during that time frame. With 2 public darlings being backed off by the public for the time being, does either side have value today?
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Despite what ESPN wants you to believe, there is nothing wrong with Santana. In fact, the only thing wrong with Santana is the notion that he has carried an inflated price tag in nearly every one of his starts that made it only a matter of time until his public perception and dominance would catch up with him. His sabermetric indicators are right in line with his past couple of years in which he produced profit. The only reason for his slight increase in ERA and WHIP has been a product of a decrease in “good luck” and good defense that had contributed to his numbers in the last couple of years. The only potentially concerning thing about Santana has occurred in his last four starts where his flyball ratio has substantially increased, which may be a sign that he is consistently missing his location and leaving the ball up. It has produced four home runs during that time span as well, which has helped substantially increase the home run rate allowed per at bat compared to the last couple of years. That said, this potential deficiency should be helped out by the spacious ballpark of Shea and the somewhat of a power shortage the Mets have had against southpaws this year. Also working in Santana’s favor is the embedded advantage he has against lineups that have not seen much of him in the past, as the disparity of his changeup and other pitches makes it especially hard on hitters that do not have a lot of experience against him. There exist only two hitters that in today’s lineup that have more than ten at bats against him, whom come into today’s game a combined 7 for 41. That said, two favorable variables for the Mets against Santana, is the fact that they have substantially increased their productivity against southpaws this year compared to last, and the fact that Santana has struggled more against right handed hitters this year, especially his power numbers allowed. Sanatana is an innings eater and solid in passing the torch to the backend of his pen, which is arguably the best in baseball. That said, Nathan has allowed 3 runs in his last six innings pitched, and there appears something seriously wrong with Rincon’s mechanics.
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The problem with Santana’s backers this year is the fact that they have been plagued by a lack of run support, which substantially diminishes the assets Santana brings to the mound. Analyzing this concerning trend is vital in quantifying value in this game. There is no denying that Petterson has fixed some of Sosa’s deficiencies. However, did he fix Sosa to the degree in which he could sustain his current numbers? Probably not. He showed signs of coming back to earth in his last start, and his strike out rate and shows regression is in the near future, while his improved BABIP shows that it has been more of a product of good defense and good pitching based on his DERA and well hit ball ratio. That said, Sosa appears to have reached a comfort level at Shea, where his biggest deficiency in years past, the home run allowed, has been helped by this ballparks dimensions. This deficiency should also be helped by the lack of power the Twins bring to the table. Facing four left handed bats could be a problem for Sosa, as his 1.72 WHIP this year against batters from the left side is far from an anomaly, as it has been a developing trend for years. Being backed by a top tier bullpen will diminish the biggest advantage the Twins usually have in each game, and will force the Twins to score early, which has been a problem for them this year.
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So the intriguing question this game provides is whether or not the decrease of public backing on both the Mets and Santana created value for either one?
 

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NY has solid run production vs. lefthanders (5.4 per game) and they might be available at a decent price when hard luck ace Johan Santana (-$835) is on the hill.
 

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bg

do you think the flyball ratio increase has anything to do with Mauer missing most of May and the 1st half of June?
 

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I'm on the over 7 here. Jorge Sosa is a flash in the pan right now I believe, and I think the Twins can get 3 runs off of him. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, but has surprisingly given up the long ball. With the Mets bats, I think they can get a couple solo shots. Gonna have to rely on the bullpens to give up a couple, but I think we can get there.
 

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do you think the flyball ratio increase has anything to do with Mauer missing most of May and the 1st half of June?


Good question, but I think Santana should be held responsible for his recent trend. In fact, Santana's GB:FB is higher with Redmond behind home plate this year compared to Maurer. I just think Santana's command has been better than his current form.
 

Where Taconite Is Just A Low Grade Ore
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BG You`re Missed Here

how about a conclusive statement re. this gm. i.e.outcome.
 

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how about a conclusive statement re. this gm. i.e.outcome.
I value the Twins at -154 and the Mets at +154. I would suggest betting on the Twins at a price of -137 or better.

I think books anticipated that the public has become somewhat price sensitive to Santana and will no longer back him no matter the price (i.e -400 against the Nats) so you didn't see an inflated price tag from the open. The line movement has been somewhat of a rollercoaster since the open, suggesting somewhat of a stalemate between sharps and squares ( potnetially). I think Santana's recent deficiencies are only shorterm, blown out of perspective, and could turn around any start now. I view it more of value creating variable that is being overquantified into the line. Sosa has improved, but appears to be valued as if his current numbers are sustanable. They are not. There are too many indicators to suggest otherwise. This is the second straight start in which I valued Sosa well below his market price. The interesting part is the fact that they were against to overpriced pitchers in their ownright, Penny and Santana. Until the Mets bats return to form, Sosa is a risk, even as a +120 underdog.
 

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jill, buffetgambler probably forgets more about baseball than you know (as the saying goes) a lot of us here appreciate his insights and writeups
 

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Jillll

Abusive positng and namecalling is not allowed in any of the Rx.com sport Forums. You have been banned for ghost posting.



wilheim.
 
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Where Taconite Is Just A Low Grade Ore
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Sorry To See You Claim My State As Home

As you seem to be dumber than a box of rocks. BG is more knowledgeable re. MLB than most writers @ SI. If you don`t like this sort of info sharing which this forum thrives on, in ALL sports, then after 13 visits GTF out. We are more than just pics here, we`re a community of friends sharing. And BG is one of the most valued members of that community. He has what you seem to lack, CLASS!
 

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Yes because you people are complete morons. LOL

I'll read Sports Illustrated if I want insight on a game. I come here for picks, so give it or don't post. Simple, really.

Thanks baby.

Pretty new around here huh? Calling people morons already too!
Wow!!

BBB
 

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Yes because you people are complete morons. LOL

I'll read Sports Illustrated if I want insight on a game. I come here for picks, so give it or don't post. Simple, really.

Thanks baby.

You are a friggin total idiot. If you only come here for picks only than shut the fu*k up and go find some dip shit. I come here for writeups just like these and others to learn and to confirm my own capping to make an informed bet and win some money. Go find your pick place your 5 dollar bet and keep your juvenile brain closed.
:bigfinger
 

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Yes because you people are complete morons. LOL

I'll read Sports Illustrated if I want insight on a game. I come here for picks, so give it or don't post. Simple, really.

Thanks baby.

Crunch?? Mods can we get an IP check?
 

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