Twins @ Mets
This is an intriguing match up, as it involves two entities that have been appealing to the public bankroll for, yet recent form has forced the public to become gun-shy for both. These two entities in which usually carry inflated price tags are Santana and the New York Mets. Despite putting forth solid numbers in his last ten starts, Santana has been a nightmare investment for his backers in those ten starts, generating a -8.26 unit return during that time frame. The Mets have also been unkind to their backers in their last fourteen games, generating a negative 9.60 unit return during that time frame. With 2 public darlings being backed off by the public for the time being, does either side have value today?
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Despite what ESPN wants you to believe, there is nothing wrong with Santana. In fact, the only thing wrong with Santana is the notion that he has carried an inflated price tag in nearly every one of his starts that made it only a matter of time until his public perception and dominance would catch up with him. His sabermetric indicators are right in line with his past couple of years in which he produced profit. The only reason for his slight increase in ERA and WHIP has been a product of a decrease in “good luck” and good defense that had contributed to his numbers in the last couple of years. The only potentially concerning thing about Santana has occurred in his last four starts where his flyball ratio has substantially increased, which may be a sign that he is consistently missing his location and leaving the ball up. It has produced four home runs during that time span as well, which has helped substantially increase the home run rate allowed per at bat compared to the last couple of years. That said, this potential deficiency should be helped out by the spacious ballpark of Shea and the somewhat of a power shortage the Mets have had against southpaws this year. Also working in Santana’s favor is the embedded advantage he has against lineups that have not seen much of him in the past, as the disparity of his changeup and other pitches makes it especially hard on hitters that do not have a lot of experience against him. There exist only two hitters that in today’s lineup that have more than ten at bats against him, whom come into today’s game a combined 7 for 41. That said, two favorable variables for the Mets against Santana, is the fact that they have substantially increased their productivity against southpaws this year compared to last, and the fact that Santana has struggled more against right handed hitters this year, especially his power numbers allowed. Sanatana is an innings eater and solid in passing the torch to the backend of his pen, which is arguably the best in baseball. That said, Nathan has allowed 3 runs in his last six innings pitched, and there appears something seriously wrong with Rincon’s mechanics.
<o> </o>
The problem with Santana’s backers this year is the fact that they have been plagued by a lack of run support, which substantially diminishes the assets Santana brings to the mound. Analyzing this concerning trend is vital in quantifying value in this game. There is no denying that Petterson has fixed some of Sosa’s deficiencies. However, did he fix Sosa to the degree in which he could sustain his current numbers? Probably not. He showed signs of coming back to earth in his last start, and his strike out rate and shows regression is in the near future, while his improved BABIP shows that it has been more of a product of good defense and good pitching based on his DERA and well hit ball ratio. That said, Sosa appears to have reached a comfort level at Shea, where his biggest deficiency in years past, the home run allowed, has been helped by this ballparks dimensions. This deficiency should also be helped by the lack of power the Twins bring to the table. Facing four left handed bats could be a problem for Sosa, as his 1.72 WHIP this year against batters from the left side is far from an anomaly, as it has been a developing trend for years. Being backed by a top tier bullpen will diminish the biggest advantage the Twins usually have in each game, and will force the Twins to score early, which has been a problem for them this year.
<o> </o>
So the intriguing question this game provides is whether or not the decrease of public backing on both the Mets and Santana created value for either one?
This is an intriguing match up, as it involves two entities that have been appealing to the public bankroll for, yet recent form has forced the public to become gun-shy for both. These two entities in which usually carry inflated price tags are Santana and the New York Mets. Despite putting forth solid numbers in his last ten starts, Santana has been a nightmare investment for his backers in those ten starts, generating a -8.26 unit return during that time frame. The Mets have also been unkind to their backers in their last fourteen games, generating a negative 9.60 unit return during that time frame. With 2 public darlings being backed off by the public for the time being, does either side have value today?
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o> </o>
Despite what ESPN wants you to believe, there is nothing wrong with Santana. In fact, the only thing wrong with Santana is the notion that he has carried an inflated price tag in nearly every one of his starts that made it only a matter of time until his public perception and dominance would catch up with him. His sabermetric indicators are right in line with his past couple of years in which he produced profit. The only reason for his slight increase in ERA and WHIP has been a product of a decrease in “good luck” and good defense that had contributed to his numbers in the last couple of years. The only potentially concerning thing about Santana has occurred in his last four starts where his flyball ratio has substantially increased, which may be a sign that he is consistently missing his location and leaving the ball up. It has produced four home runs during that time span as well, which has helped substantially increase the home run rate allowed per at bat compared to the last couple of years. That said, this potential deficiency should be helped out by the spacious ballpark of Shea and the somewhat of a power shortage the Mets have had against southpaws this year. Also working in Santana’s favor is the embedded advantage he has against lineups that have not seen much of him in the past, as the disparity of his changeup and other pitches makes it especially hard on hitters that do not have a lot of experience against him. There exist only two hitters that in today’s lineup that have more than ten at bats against him, whom come into today’s game a combined 7 for 41. That said, two favorable variables for the Mets against Santana, is the fact that they have substantially increased their productivity against southpaws this year compared to last, and the fact that Santana has struggled more against right handed hitters this year, especially his power numbers allowed. Sanatana is an innings eater and solid in passing the torch to the backend of his pen, which is arguably the best in baseball. That said, Nathan has allowed 3 runs in his last six innings pitched, and there appears something seriously wrong with Rincon’s mechanics.
<o> </o>
The problem with Santana’s backers this year is the fact that they have been plagued by a lack of run support, which substantially diminishes the assets Santana brings to the mound. Analyzing this concerning trend is vital in quantifying value in this game. There is no denying that Petterson has fixed some of Sosa’s deficiencies. However, did he fix Sosa to the degree in which he could sustain his current numbers? Probably not. He showed signs of coming back to earth in his last start, and his strike out rate and shows regression is in the near future, while his improved BABIP shows that it has been more of a product of good defense and good pitching based on his DERA and well hit ball ratio. That said, Sosa appears to have reached a comfort level at Shea, where his biggest deficiency in years past, the home run allowed, has been helped by this ballparks dimensions. This deficiency should also be helped by the lack of power the Twins bring to the table. Facing four left handed bats could be a problem for Sosa, as his 1.72 WHIP this year against batters from the left side is far from an anomaly, as it has been a developing trend for years. Being backed by a top tier bullpen will diminish the biggest advantage the Twins usually have in each game, and will force the Twins to score early, which has been a problem for them this year.
<o> </o>
So the intriguing question this game provides is whether or not the decrease of public backing on both the Mets and Santana created value for either one?