Wednsday Plays (41-41 +32.52 Units YTD)

themanej2001 · Jun 20, 2007

41-41 +32.52 Units YTD

5 Units - 8-1 (+34.34 Units)
4 Units - 2-3 (-4.68)
3 Units - 10-6 (+17.64)
2 Units - 10-19 (-15.97)
1 Unit - 11-12 (+1.19)

Well been hot lately... Gonna have a lot of Big Dogs tomorrow because a few pitchers are now being over valued because before they were under valued and the Books adjusted accordingly because now people have witnessed how good they can be so the lines are inflated.

Minnesota +181 (Baker) 2 Units Now Oliver is being put at a price that he does not deserve. The guy is a hell of a pitcher with a lot of talent but his team is just flat out struggling and have hit a rut in their season. The Mets are not deserving of this number right now especially not against a quality opponent who will not beat themselves. Think Oliver scuffles a little bit and comes back to earth slightly. He still has slight control issues and throws to many pitches...

Phillies +190 (Lieber) 3 Units CC has always been very talented and this year he seems to have got the league in his hands but he is playing a team that can flat out swing the bats and they have very hot hitters in their lineup. Lieber is not the pitcher he once was but he is still crafty and smart and with the lineup he has backing him up he shouldn't be at +190. His ERA is still in the low 4's but I am really betting on the Phillies bats here. If CC leaves the ball down in the zone he can be in trouble at times. Think this could be his third loss of the season, and even if it isn't the Phillies shouldn't ever be out of this game with the way they are swinging the sticks.

Cincy +218 (Belisle) 1 Unit Going to take a stab at Haren here and hope he has a set back start. The Reds played great baseball tonight and the A's bats can be shut down on any given night. They lack pop and consistency so even if Haren pitches a gem he can get out pitched by a very average pitcher. I feel at least 2 or three of these pitchers are going to have a come back to earth start tonight. Cincy is not as bad as their record has shown and the A's bats are just not reliable enough to be giving a number like this. Think Cincy has a legit shot at winning this game.

I really want to take the Pirates and fade Weaver but I just can't seem to do it. If the favorites are barking tomorrow I am in big trouble but I can easily see myself pulling out 2 of these three games tomorrow. I usually don't bet this many big dogs but I feel 2 of these pitches are going to have a come back to earth start...

That is why it is gambling and we'll have to wait and see..

GL guys

prodigy · Jun 20, 2007

the cleveland/philly line on tuesday with stanford was downright stupid. that was a prime spot to fade cleveland and many people rightfully did it and cashed in. but im not sure how philly is going to put runs on the board vs. sabathia. the two biggest bats in the philly lineup are lefties who are now going up against a power lefty theyve never seen before. i really dont see utley and howard combining for more than one hit off him. wouldnt surprise me to see howard whiff a few times. better times to fade the indians imo. right now, i wouldnt even consider going against them with sabathia or carmona on the mound. the price might be tempting, but look at the indians record in their starts, even the no-decisions. gaudy numbers. but id look to go anti-cleveland with lee/byrd/and whomever they have in the other slot (sowers/stanford/westbrook).

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 20, 2007

Do you mess with totals at all? Any thoughts here would be appreciated.

Drays / DBacks Under 9 -115:

This game is at 3:40pm. At 1:00am, the DBacks game is still going on in the top of the 9th.

Shields gave up 4er on 4hits and back to back homers in the first inning vs. the Rockies last start, he went on to pitch 6innings (shortest outting this yr) give up 6hits and 5er. That was Shields first loss of the season as well.

Shields Away = 3-1, 3.27era, 6g, 44ip, 34h, 7bb, 34k... Batters hitting .211 off him
Shields L3 = 2-1, 20.1ip, 16h, 3.98era, 2bb, 16k

Shields has 10 starts this yr out of 14 total with 3er or less and has gone further than 6ip in every start except the last one vs. the Rockies.

I am fully expecting him to bounce back here against a not so potent offense in Arizona for atleast 7ip.

Here are Owings numbers..

Owings at Home = 2-1, 3.05era, 6g, 38.1ip, 37h, 12bb, 27k... Batters hitting .259 off him
Owings L3 = 1-0, 17ip, 20h, 3.18era, 5bb, 7k

Owings has given up 3er or less in 9 of his 10 starts this yr. Pretty impressive I must say.

The first 2 games in this series have gone Over. The last 5 games Arizona has played have gone Over, yet the 5 games before that went Under the total and they are 28-40-1 on the O/U this yr..Tampa has hit the over in 10 of their last 11 games but is 22-9-2 O/U on the road.

Shields is 7-6 O/U and Owings is 6-4 O/U.

Of course TB bullpen can blow this thing at anytime but if Shields can get through 7innings or more and Reyes comes in later, it should be alright. Another reason for concern is the way TB is hitting lately, .297 off RHP in their last 10, meanwhile the DBacks are hitting RHP around .215 and Shields pretty much dominated the DBacks last yr in his only career start vs. the DBacks. If Shields dominates the DBacks there is a lot of room for some runs. If Owings dominates the DRays, this game should def hit under.

I am showing Martin Foster as the ump and he is 5-8 O/U this yr w/ 62.5% for strikes.

themanej2001 · Jun 20, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Do you mess with totals at all? Any thoughts here would be appreciated.

Drays / DBacks Under 9 -115:

This game is at 3:40pm. At 1:00am, the DBacks game is still going on in the top of the 9th.

Shields gave up 4er on 4hits and back to back homers in the first inning vs. the Rockies last start, he went on to pitch 6innings (shortest outting this yr) give up 6hits and 5er. That was Shields first loss of the season as well.

Shields Away = 3-1, 3.27era, 6g, 44ip, 34h, 7bb, 34k... Batters hitting .211 off him
Shields L3 = 2-1, 20.1ip, 16h, 3.98era, 2bb, 16k

Shields has 10 starts this yr out of 14 total with 3er or less and has gone further than 6ip in every start except the last one vs. the Rockies.

I am fully expecting him to bounce back here against a not so potent offense in Arizona for atleast 7ip.

Here are Owings numbers..

Owings at Home = 2-1, 3.05era, 6g, 38.1ip, 37h, 12bb, 27k... Batters hitting .259 off him
Owings L3 = 1-0, 17ip, 20h, 3.18era, 5bb, 7k

Owings has given up 3er or less in 9 of his 10 starts this yr. Pretty impressive I must say.

The first 2 games in this series have gone Over. The last 5 games Arizona has played have gone Over, yet the 5 games before that went Under the total and they are 28-40-1 on the O/U this yr..Tampa has hit the over in 10 of their last 11 games but is 22-9-2 O/U on the road.

Shields is 7-6 O/U and Owings is 6-4 O/U.

Of course TB bullpen can blow this thing at anytime but if Shields can get through 7innings or more and Reyes comes in later, it should be alright. Another reason for concern is the way TB is hitting lately, .297 off RHP in their last 10, meanwhile the DBacks are hitting RHP around .215 and Shields pretty much dominated the DBacks last yr in his only career start vs. the DBacks. If Shields dominates the DBacks there is a lot of room for some runs. If Owings dominates the DRays, this game should def hit under.

I am showing Martin Foster as the ump and he is 5-8 O/U this yr w/ 62.5% for strikes.

I don't mess with them often but when stands out I will jump on it...

Here is my problem... Shields has been phenomenal... one of the best in baseball but his youth still makes him suspect for bad spot starts... but he is not my worry....

Here is my problem with this under... Owings is not known to go deep into games and Sheilds has a problem of throwing a few too many pitches in starts... It is feasible to think that both these guys could be out by the 6th inning leaving the B-Pen with 6 innings pitched combined... One B-Pen is very dependable while the other is absolutely terrible... So you are relying on a B-Pen to hold a game down... and it could very well be 4-3 when these guys are pulled. So then you are looking at these bullpens having to go 6 innings giving up only one run...

That would be my only problem with it... but I do see the value in it

themanej2001 · Jun 20, 2007

prodigy said:
the cleveland/philly line on tuesday with stanford was downright stupid. that was a prime spot to fade cleveland and many people rightfully did it and cashed in. but im not sure how philly is going to put runs on the board vs. sabathia. the two biggest bats in the philly lineup are lefties who are now going up against a power lefty theyve never seen before. i really dont see utley and howard combining for more than one hit off him. wouldnt surprise me to see howard whiff a few times. better times to fade the indians imo. right now, i wouldnt even consider going against them with sabathia or carmona on the mound. the price might be tempting, but look at the indians record in their starts, even the no-decisions. gaudy numbers. but id look to go anti-cleveland with lee/byrd/and whomever they have in the other slot (sowers/stanford/westbrook).

I feel what you are saying and I agree... My thing is Howard is finally swinging a hot stick and when a guy like him gets hot he is almost impossible to stop... Not only that but Burell will be CC's biggest problem IMO... it is so tough to blow a fast ball by him and really fits a guy with CC's billing. I could really see him have a huge game... Obviously the number is where it is for a reason... but CC hasn't been completely invincible this year.

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 20, 2007

themanej2001 said:
I don't mess with them often but when stands out I will jump on it...

Here is my problem... Shields has been phenomenal... one of the best in baseball but his youth still makes him suspect for bad spot starts... but he is not my worry....

Here is my problem with this under... Owings is not known to go deep into games and Sheilds has a problem of throwing a few too many pitches in starts... It is feasible to think that both these guys could be out by the 6th inning leaving the B-Pen with 6 innings pitched combined... One B-Pen is very dependable while the other is absolutely terrible... So you are relying on a B-Pen to hold a game down... and it could very well be 4-3 when these guys are pulled. So then you are looking at these bullpens having to go 6 innings giving up only one run...

That would be my only problem with it... but I do see the value in it

Hard to disagree with anything you said here. Both bullpens are certainly capable of blowing this O/U. Its now 1:40am and the game is in the 10th inning. First pitch on Wednesday is at 3:40pm, I think that plays to the advantage of the Under here. I think for it to hit it has to be a 3-2 type game in the 7th. Shields really is a work horse so I can see him going into the 7th inning, I think Owings bails out in the 6th.

Shields era in the first inning is 5.79 giving up 9er in 14 starts. Shields also has some trouble in the 6th inning where he also has a 5.79era and has given up 9er but I am not scared of that Zona offense, I guess that why I think if Shields can dominate them, Owings can do enough to limit the damage.

Having said all that. Reyes just gave up 4er in 2innings to blow the game..WOW ahaha

I am going through the games now but don't see too much I disagre with that you have

themanej2001 · Jun 20, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Hard to disagree with anything you said here. Both bullpens are certainly capable of blowing this O/U. Its now 1:40am and the game is in the 10th inning. First pitch on Wednesday is at 3:40pm, I think that plays to the advantage of the Under here. I think for it to hit it has to be a 3-2 type game in the 7th. Shields really is a work horse so I can see him going into the 7th inning, I think Owings bails out in the 6th.

Shields era in the first inning is 5.79 giving up 9er in 14 starts. Shields also has some trouble in the 6th inning where he also has a 5.79era and has given up 9er but I am not scared of that Zona offense, I guess that why I think if Shields can dominate them, Owings can do enough to limit the damage.

Having said all that. Reyes just gave up 4er in 2innings to blow the game..WOW ahaha

I am going through the games now but don't see too much I disagre with that you have

Yeah IDK... just the B-Pens scare me... the starters are not my true issue although lets see how Shields reacts to a speed lineup over a power lineup that he says in the AL East often...

And Owings just seems to be such a question on how long he will last, will he throw strikes, and can he really beat a team with this talent... Guy has been ultra consistent so it would be hard to argue against him... But those bullpens haha... Just so shaky...

Gl to you whatever you bet bro... Have a good one... and if you got anything else toss it out there if I don't respond I passed out because I got work at 730... but if you write something I'll be sure to respond... have a good one

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 20, 2007

Have a good one as well. I will def just throw my thoughts in here tonight when I finish looking through some of these games.

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 20, 2007

Orioles have lost 9 in a row...

Guthrie L3 Games = 0-0, 1.57era, 23ip, 13h, 4er, 3bb, 15k

Guthrie started the yr as a reliever and only started 1 game in April before taking over fulltime in May. In his last 9 starts this yr, Guthrie has given up 2er or less in 8 of them, the other start he gave up 3er.

Guthrie has a 1.71era as a starting pitcher this yr.

Those are sick numbers and +135 has some value to it but how the hell do you reasonably back the Orioles here.

5starbomb · Jun 20, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Orioles have lost 9 in a row...

Guthrie L3 Games = 0-0, 1.57era, 23ip, 13h, 4er, 3bb, 15k

Guthrie started the yr as a reliever and only started 1 game in April before taking over fulltime in May. In his last 9 starts this yr, Guthrie has given up 2er or less in 8 of them, the other start he gave up 3er.

Guthrie has a 1.71era as a starting pitcher this yr.

Those are sick numbers and +135 has some value to it but how the hell do you reasonably back the Orioles here.

i was saying the same damn thing... guthrie has been unreal but i hate the Orioles they are terrible

themanej2001 · Jun 20, 2007

Guthrie has been good but he hasn't been backed at all.... Which seems about right if you pitch for the Orioles...

GL guys

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 20, 2007

Thank you for talking me out of the Zona Under!

5starbomb · Jun 20, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Thank you for talking me out of the Zona Under!

fuck why didnt he talk me out of it!! god damn it what the fuck man 3-2 count, 2 outs and fuckin konerko's bitch ass decides to hit a home run

THEPICKSPRODIGY · Jun 20, 2007

themanej2001 said:
41-41 +32.52 Units YTD

5 Units - 8-1 (+34.34 Units)
4 Units - 2-3 (-4.68)
3 Units - 10-6 (+17.64)
2 Units - 10-19 (-15.97)
1 Unit - 11-12 (+1.19)

Well been hot lately... Gonna have a lot of Big Dogs tomorrow because a few pitchers are now being over valued because before they were under valued and the Books adjusted accordingly because now people have witnessed how good they can be so the lines are inflated.

Minnesota +181 (Baker) 2 Units Now Oliver is being put at a price that he does not deserve. The guy is a hell of a pitcher with a lot of talent but his team is just flat out struggling and have hit a rut in their season. The Mets are not deserving of this number right now especially not against a quality opponent who will not beat themselves. Think Oliver scuffles a little bit and comes back to earth slightly. He still has slight control issues and throws to many pitches...

Phillies +190 (Lieber) 3 Units CC has always been very talented and this year he seems to have got the league in his hands but he is playing a team that can flat out swing the bats and they have very hot hitters in their lineup. Lieber is not the pitcher he once was but he is still crafty and smart and with the lineup he has backing him up he shouldn't be at +190. His ERA is still in the low 4's but I am really betting on the Phillies bats here. If CC leaves the ball down in the zone he can be in trouble at times. Think this could be his third loss of the season, and even if it isn't the Phillies shouldn't ever be out of this game with the way they are swinging the sticks.

Cincy +218 (Belisle) 1 Unit Going to take a stab at Haren here and hope he has a set back start. The Reds played great baseball tonight and the A's bats can be shut down on any given night. They lack pop and consistency so even if Haren pitches a gem he can get out pitched by a very average pitcher. I feel at least 2 or three of these pitchers are going to have a come back to earth start tonight. Cincy is not as bad as their record has shown and the A's bats are just not reliable enough to be giving a number like this. Think Cincy has a legit shot at winning this game.

I really want to take the Pirates and fade Weaver but I just can't seem to do it. If the favorites are barking tomorrow I am in big trouble but I can easily see myself pulling out 2 of these three games tomorrow. I usually don't bet this many big dogs but I feel 2 of these pitches are going to have a come back to earth start...

That is why it is gambling and we'll have to wait and see..

GL guys

Good Luck Bro, this is the only way someone can still have a nice profit even without hitting 55%, and I give you props for posting them...most with a losing record claim to be ahead, but all I see from them is Favs, so do your thing man and I hope they come in for ya...PP

themanej2001 · Jun 20, 2007

Well one lead blown today and got another early... So far in all three games and the first one was blown but that is why they are a dog... Hopefully these next two can cash... and hopefully Cleveland doesn't just have an explosion...

themanej2001 · Jun 20, 2007

THE PICKS PRODIGY said:
Good Luck Bro, this is the only way someone can still have a nice profit even without hitting 55%, and I give you props for posting them...most with a losing record claim to be ahead, but all I see from them is Favs, so do your thing man and I hope they come in for ya...PP

Thanks bro... Gl to you as well as always

themanej2001 · Jun 20, 2007

Dsethi said:
wouldn't say cincy was blown, they lost their lead in the 7th and were only up 1....if it was late 8th or 9th then I'd understand but don't think it's enough to qualify as a "bad beat."

Not a bad beat at all... but still a blown lead... late in a game... Not a bad beat... because it happens often... but more so that lead is helled then surrendered... Not complaining at all that is what big Dogs do often...

themanej2001 · Jun 20, 2007

Well that 8 run 6th kind of hurt my chances haha

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 20, 2007

how you feel about the Angels, I know big chalk like that ain't your thing but a -1 play would bring it down to -128..

themanej2001 · Jun 20, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
how you feel about the Angels, I know big chalk like that ain't your thing but a -1 play would bring it down to -128..

Ok... Well here is my feel on this game...

Wandy Rodriguez is very capable and not someone I would bet on to have a poor performance but.....

I think the Angels have them beat in every aspect of the game...

Starter
Bullpen
Offense
Defense

All edges to the Angels and in this game it is emphasized even more in two aspects of the game... If the Angels get a lead they will hold it... if the Astro's get a lead and it isn't big enough odds are they will blow it...

Here is the question I ask everyone looking to lay -1....

Do you think the Angels Offense will score 5+ runs... If you do then lay the -1 and take the Angels... If you don't think they do then bet the line as is... Because 4 runs or fewer for a team isn't hard to come by... Two walks and bam a 3 run homer... With HR's in baseball you can not always bet on teams scoring that many runs...

So if you think the Angels score 5 or more runs then lay the -1 and sit back and enjoy....