Forum: Baseball Forum - Post your picks or discuss anything related to betting MLB here.

Thread: Wednesday Baseball Thoughts

  1. #1 Wednesday Baseball Thoughts 
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    2:05..... Giants +131 / Brewers -141 / Over 8.5: No bet here, had Brewers last 2 nights and they cashed, now is not the time to get greedy. Brewers do kill LHP at home and Zito has not been consistent this yr. Brewers are 10-2 when Vargas pitches as well. Giants have now dropped 6 in a row? Brewers have won 8 of their last 9 games. Didn't look at the ump but I think this game goes over..Not touching a side, don't want to be a victim of the Giants and Zito getting off the shitter.

    2:05.....Marlins +118 / WSux -128: Alright, had Mitre last start vs the Royals and dude gives up 6er, I guess at this point I will chalk that up as a bad start. I realize 5 of them came in the 6th and 7th inning but still he gave up 6er. I want to see lineups for this game if it is true that the WSux are even more banged up. Hamstring wise, I think Mitre has to be cool by now, he did go 6.1 last start and throw 88 pitches so I would think its alright. Both teams are 3-7 in their last 10 games but Florida is batting .291 in that span while WSux are batting .251. Mitre doesn't give up the long ball and he doesn't walk many batters which is good so the light hitting WhiteSux will have to earn their runs. WSux really didn't do much hitting outside of the first inning when they scored 4runs yesterday. They got 3hits from the 2nd inning on against Obermueller, Miller, Lindstrom, Benitez, and Gregg and batted .194 as a team in that game. Marlins have batted (.366), (.333), (.312), (.405) in their last 4 games so the bats are def there. Garland is a decent pitcher, not really dominant and he is hittable. Marlins are free swingers and an agressive team on offense so they could play into him a little bit. Garland is 3-3 w/ 3.36era at home, 8games, 56.1ip, 52h, 16bb, 24k. Sox are 4-9 when Garland pitches and the Marlins are 4-7 when Mitre pitches. Last 3 games, Garland is 1-1 w/ 2.53era, 21.1ip, 26h, 4bb, 11k. Currently lean to the Marlins +118

    3:35....Reds +218 / A's -238 / RL -1.5 -127: Talk about juice on the RL huh. There is no other reasonable way to play this game unless you just take a shot with the Reds.. Alright well Haren has looked like the best pitcher in baseball this yr and that is pretty much it. Belisle is garbage but is 4-1 w/ 4.28era on the road this yr. He is 0-1 w/ 7.68era in his last 3 games. My problem here is that I don't believe in the A's offense 1 bit and they can make Belisle look decent today, which he is not. Haren has given up more than 2er only 1 time in 15 starts this yr, (3 vs. Yanks in April), every other game has been 2er or less, and 8 starts have been 1er or less, so that means most likely the A's have to get 4 runs to cover the RL here, which is doable. A's are 11-4 when Haren pitches and have covered the RL in 7 of his 15 starts this yr. Currently lean to the A's -1.5 -127.

    3:40....Drays -110 / DBacks +100 / Under 8.5 -110:

    DBacks game ended around 1:45am last night and this game is at 3:40, could be a little fatigure here on both sides. I don't like the under as much as I did last night since the number has dropped, DRay offense is real hot, the bullpens blow and the number is lower than I want by 1run..

    Shields gave up 4er on 4hits and back to back homers in the first inning vs. the Rockies last start, he went on to pitch 6innings (shortest outting this yr) give up 6hits and 5er. That was Shields first loss of the season as well.

    Shields Away = 3-1, 3.27era, 6g, 44ip, 34h, 7bb, 34k... Batters hitting .211 off him
    Shields L3 = 2-1, 20.1ip, 16h, 3.98era, 2bb, 16k

    Shields has 10 starts this yr out of 14 total with 3er or less and has gone further than 6ip in every start except the last one vs. the Rockies.

    I am fully expecting him to bounce back here against a not so potent offense in Arizona for atleast 7ip.

    Here is the rundown on Owings numbers wise.

    Owings at Home = 2-1, 3.05era, 6g, 38.1ip, 37h, 12bb, 27k... Batters hitting .259 off him
    Owings L3 = 1-0, 17ip, 20h, 3.18era, 5bb, 7k

    Owings has given up 3er or less in 9 of his 10 starts this yr. Pretty impressive I must say.

    The first 2 games in this series have gone Over. The last 5 games Arizona has played have gone Over, yet the 5 games before that went Under the total and they are 28-40-1 on the O/U this yr..Tampa has hit the over in 10 of their last 11 games but is 22-9-2 O/U on the road.

    Shields is 7-6 O/U and Owings is 6-4 O/U.

    Of course TB bullpen can blow this thing at anytime but if Shields can get through 7innings or more and Reyes comes in later, it should be alright. (I wrote that last night) Now that he has pitched 2inning-4er, I take it back, nothing is alright. Another reason for concern for the under is the way TB is hitting lately, .297 off RHP in their last 10, meanwhile the DBacks are hitting RHP around .215 and Shields pretty much dominated the DBacks last yr in his only career start vs. the DBacks. If Shields dominates the DBacks there is a lot of room for some runs for the under. If Owings dominates the DRays, this game should def hit under.

    I am showing Martin Foster as the ump and he is 5-8 O/U this yr w/ 62.5% for strikes.

    I personally think Shields bounces back here and gets the W, Arizona has a good home record (21-15) but they are a streaky bunch just like the DRays. It might have been different if the Rays were going for the sweep but the DBacks stole one last night and now its time to get owned again. TB has advantage with SP and offense and that is where I currently lean.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #2  
    RX Junior Jibba's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    4,087
    Great info as always ETG. Hope you cash whatever you play today.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #3  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Quote Originally Posted by Jibba View Post
    Great info as always ETG. Hope you cash whatever you play today.
    Thanks, what have you been up to, can't find your posts?Taking a few days off?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #4  
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Bay Area
    Posts
    1,523
    Hey where do you find your umpire over/under info?

    Thank
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #5  
    RX Junior Jibba's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    4,087
    Quote Originally Posted by everythingthatsgreen View Post
    Thanks, what have you been up to, can't find your posts?Taking a few days off?
    Yeah, I dropped below 20 units and just didn't see a point in continuing to post my plays for the time being. All I was doing was losing, and it was really ugly. Not exactly the kind of stuff that helps others, especially sinec I've had less time to post writeups (as opposed to just plays). I've been following one or two posters with regular sized bets while playing my own small until I get back on track. I think I may have finally turned a corner, but I'll give it a little more time before I consider posting again. Just now starting to post a little here and there again after being a lurker for a week or so.

    So what are you on today? Considering the Marlins in the 2 o'clock games. Haven't pulled the trigger yet though.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #6  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    I just locked in the Marlins out of the 2:00 game.I don't have any kind of ratings for my plays but if it was on a scale of 1-5, this would be a 3* play..Only because I respect Garland. The offense for the WSox is awful, that lineup they are sporting today is awful, and the Marlins should be able to get 3runs or so off Garland in 6, then the bullpen for the WSox is another liability..I do pay attention to line movements and this line opened at +120, got hit hard real fast to +112, woke up this morning it was back at +118 around 11-12ish, then right before gametime it got banged down again to +114 and prob still dropping. My guess is the people who handicapped the game took the Marlins and the people who think the WSox are still a team to lay chalk took the Sox and that is who drove the line back up.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #7  
    RX Junior Jibba's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    4,087
    Yeah, just made the same play myself after looking over the lineups. Still got +121 on MB. Also took a flyer on the under in the same game (+106). Think I'm in the same boat as you as far as the Brewers game. No play there. Haven't decided on that A's game. BOL.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #8  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Quote Originally Posted by Jibba View Post
    Yeah, just made the same play myself after looking over the lineups. Still got +121 on MB. Also took a flyer on the under in the same game (+106). Think I'm in the same boat as you as far as the Brewers game. No play there. Haven't decided on that A's game. BOL.
    GL to US on the Marlins, I agree with the Under as well.

    Moving on for the next slate of games..

    A's - I don't think I should ever be paying -130 on the RL, that is just me, I like to get +money on it. Haren is very good but Belisle is a coin flip and the A's offense calmed down after going like 5 straight games with 6 or more runs. I can't even consider the ML there just on principle alone.

    Rays/Backs - I am still looking at this game, want to see lineups there, and feel kind of relieved that the Backs won last night since this isn't a sweep situation. I like Shields to rebound and they have the better offense but if he doesn't go 8ip than its like having a heart attack with that bullpen which also puts the Under in danger
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #9  
    RX Junior Jibba's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    4,087
    Quote Originally Posted by everythingthatsgreen View Post
    GL to US on the Marlins, I agree with the Under as well.

    Moving on for the next slate of games..

    A's - I don't think I should ever be paying -130 on the RL, that is just me, I like to get +money on it. Haren is very good but Belisle is a coin flip and the A's offense calmed down after going like 5 straight games with 6 or more runs. I can't even consider the ML there just on principle alone.

    Rays/Backs - I am still looking at this game, want to see lineups there, and feel kind of relieved that the Backs won last night since this isn't a sweep situation. I like Shields to rebound and they have the better offense but if he doesn't go 8ip than its like having a heart attack with that bullpen which also puts the Under in danger
    Personally, I want to jump on that Oakland run line as I expect them to put up at least 4 or so, and we can assume Haren will be his usual self. Probably going to stay away though. Already on the D-Rays, but it's not my play. Just following someone else's play on that one. Love Shields but definitely feel a little weary about backing Tampa as a road fav (although I actually got them at +101).
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #10  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    My book doesn't have 5inning lines or Id consider hitting Rays like that. I mean Shields is solid but I want nothing to do with that bullpen. I might not force anything in the 3:30 games and hopefully get a win with the Marlins and than look for 1-2 games tonight.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #11  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Really kicking myself here with the Marlins. Garland is just mowing them down. Lucky the game is still 2-1 but I've never felt so out of a 2-1 game. No other afternoon plays. Got to get back to finding some winners for tonight
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #12  
    Raising 4 girls! CalvinTy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    4,514
    Quote Originally Posted by everythingthatsgreen View Post
    Really kicking myself here with the Marlins. Garland is just mowing them down. Lucky the game is still 2-1 but I've never felt so out of a 2-1 game. No other afternoon plays. Got to get back to finding some winners for tonight
    No no, you really nailed it down with your analysis in this thread and your post in the other thread. I could see where you were coming from regarding FLA (Mitre) at +118 being a good stab to take. You even mentioned how you had respect for Garland and basically I guess the Under is beginning to look very good play in hindsight.

    Sometimes for all of us, we see value plays but they simply don't bring the cash but as long as we feel we are beating the percentage sufficiently in the long run, we'll be fine.

    Back to this game, it's still a 2-1 game as you said, so it's still anybody's game in the FLA/CWS game right now. GL!

    * CalvinTy
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #13  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Quote Originally Posted by CalvinTy View Post
    No no, you really nailed it down with your analysis in this thread and your post in the other thread. I could see where you were coming from regarding FLA (Mitre) at +118 being a good stab to take. You even mentioned how you had respect for Garland and basically I guess the Under is beginning to look very good play in hindsight.

    Sometimes for all of us, we see value plays but they simply don't bring the cash but as long as we feel we are beating the percentage sufficiently in the long run, we'll be fine.

    Back to this game, it's still a 2-1 game as you said, so it's still anybody's game in the FLA/CWS game right now. GL!

    * CalvinTy
    Thanks Calvin but damn I've been out of this game for a while. My only hope is a bullpen messup from the WSox and the way my luck has been going, it won't happen. Marlins can't hit off a tee today. My decision process when I go to make plays is terrible and def. something I need to improve on.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #14  
    RX Junior Jibba's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    4,087
    Looks like things took a turn for the better for Marlin backers. Hope they can hold the lead, although they're having some trouble in the bottom of the 8th. Would be nice to nail the side and the total in this one, but I'm a little worried even with the lead.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #15  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Quote Originally Posted by Jibba View Post
    Looks like things took a turn for the better for Marlin backers. Hope they can hold the lead, although they're having some trouble in the bottom of the 8th. Would be nice to nail the side and the total in this one, but I'm a little worried even with the lead.
    I can't believe Gregg walks in a run w/ bases loaded. Terreo was 0-3 w/ 2k's.

    I am real worried Jibba, real worried. They better not bring Benitez in this game. Gregg threw a decent amount of pitches too.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  16. #16  
    Raising 4 girls! CalvinTy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    4,514
    Nice hit on the FLA play, ETG. Danks blew the game twice, basically. If Danks hadn't allowed ANOTHER run in the top of 9th inning, the solo shot by Konerko in the bottom of 9th would have tied the game up.

    So it was the CWS bullpen that failed today.

    * CalvinTy
    Reply With Quote  
     

  17. #17  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Calvin - Thanks, feel a little lucky after that but WSux bullpen is a very big liability and has been for some time. Plus thats the first game I won on a blown bullpen in prob over a month, its usually my bullpen pulling that shit..


    the 7:00 games are real chalky, I am skipping the Tigers, don't want to lay 200 w/ CC, am not getting beat by Kuo again, think the Mets win.


    Royals -115:


    First off, I want to put out a FRAUD ALERT on Todd Wellemeyer. Here is a guy who is 2-0 on the yr, the Cards are 4-0 when he starts and he has started four straight games for them, he is a reliever otherwise. Let me just put the numbers out there.

    2-0, 5.71era, 4g, 17.1ip, 22h, 11er, 11bb, 14k as a starter
    Cards are 4-0 when he starts
    He has a 1.71WHIP this yr and a 2.03 in his last 3 games
    He sports and on base percentage of .387
    He is 1-0, 5.84era, 12.1ip, 15h, 10bb, 11k in his last 3 games.
    Cards have scored 15, 9, 4, 8 runs when he pitches.

    Alright guys, at -115, Getting Meche vs. this guy who is due to explode, I am 90% sure this is 1 play for tonight. I have to eat dinner but everyone knows what Meche can do.

    On the road: 1-2 w/ 1.66era, 6g, 38ip, 42h, 3hr, 10bb, 27k.

    I pointed out the HR's because he has given up 8 at home, pretty significant different. He can't maintain that era but tonight he has to be good, not perfect. Royals should unload on this guy and if they don't I will continue to fade him until I get my money back. Those numbers are outright TERRIBLE.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  18. #18  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Royals are 7-4 in their last 11, have won their last 3 series and get their ace on the mound. I am not scared of Wellemeyer and the Royals shouldn't be either. After Todd is done pitching 4innings, his bullpen is pitching another 5 and they are worse than the KC bullpen, who is actually pretty good.

    I don't keep a record here but for comparisons sake.. I played the Marlins for 3.5units, my normal bet is 5.5 and that is what I am playing the Royals for. I was a little scared of Garland and he showed me why but I have a lot of confidence in the Royals 2night
    Reply With Quote  
     

  19. #19  
    RX Senior everythingthatsgreen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,549
    Alright little game. Guess the Pitcher



    Pitcher A:
    Overall = 4-6, 4.19era, 72.1ip, 79h, 36er, 71k, 18bb, 10HR, .308obp, 1.25whip
    Last 3 = 2-1, 3.06era, 17.2ip, 18h, 6er, 17k, 2bb, 4HR, .278obp, 1.13whip
    Away = 1-4, 6.42era, 33.2ip, 43h, 24er, 32k, 9bb, 6HR, .355obp, 1.54whip


    Pitcher B:
    Overall = 5-7, 5.04era, 84ip, 90h, 47er, 65k, 31bb, 16HR, .339obp, 1.44whip
    Last 3 = 1-1, 3.6era, 20ip, 18h, 8er, 17k, 4bb, 3HR, .280obp, 1.10whip
    Home = 4-1, 2.41era, 41ip, 34h, 11er, 33k, 11bb, 3HR, .277obp, 1.10whip



    If you guess Wandy Rodriguez for Pitcher B, you are wrong and lose $100.



    Aight guys, seriously... Wandy on the road = bad....Ervin at home = good.

    It spelled out for you right there. A major problem of Ervin's seems to be his HR's, he has given up 13 of them on the road this season but only 3 at home. Now I must admit, the Astros are tearing the cover off the ball right now and one can seriously say that they should have taken the first 2 games of this series, instead it is split and the last time the Angels lost a home series was on May 4-6 to the WhiteSux. Since then they have won home series vs Cleveland, Dodgers, Seattle, Baltimore, and Minnesota.

    Bullpen advantage = Angels

    Better pitcher because of the circumstances + better bullpen + dominant home team (24-10) + slightly better offense at the moment = Angels.

    Wandy is a lefty and the Angels are hitting LHP at .396 in their last 10 games and .294 on the yr. Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. LHP as well.

    If you need something else, the umpire, Hernandez is 10-4 for the home team this yr, tell me who he has money on huh?

    Astros +163 / Angels -173:

    In order to get some value I would have to do a -1 here but it is not an offical play yet, still thinking and waiting a little more, also want to watch a little more of the Royals game.
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •