Pinnacle line moves for 6-20

There is a poster called "the old school" that has suggested fading line moves of 10% or more. I have been using the 10-points rule except for games over 200. I may decide to use the 10% rule later depending upon the results.

Here are the picks fading today's moves of 10 points or more:
Atl +116 over Bos (from -102)
NYM -191 over Min (from -212)
Cle -201 over Phi (from -222)
Col +145 over NYY (from +132)
StL +108 over KC (from -106)
SD -134 over Bal (from -145)

(All listed pitchers as of this time.)

Yesterday was very good to fade, 6-1 on 10% moves. Today Atl (buy +108, now +116), NYM (buy at -191, now -191), Col (buy +145, now +145) are plays (we try to bet at peak, often at "square" books). Cle will become a play at -200, Stl a play at +110, and SD a play at -131. Good luck!

the old school said:

Yesterday was very good to fade, 6-1 on 10% moves. Today Atl (buy +108, now +116), NYM (buy at -191, now -191), Col (buy +145, now +145) are plays (we try to bet at peak, often at "square" books). Cle will become a play at -200, Stl a play at +110, and SD a play at -131. Good luck!

Click to expand...

So ATL, NYM, & COLORADO are bets.......I actually love the Rockies tonight, so hopefully this all goes together!!!:banger:

quantumleap said:

There is a poster called "the old school" that has suggested fading line moves of 10% or more. I have been using the 10-points rule except for games over 200. I may decide to use the 10% rule later depending upon the results.

Here are the picks fading today's moves of 10 points or more:
Atl +116 over Bos (from -102)
NYM -191 over Min (from -212)
Cle -201 over Phi (from -222)
Col +145 over NYY (from +132)
StL +108 over KC (from -106)
SD -134 over Bal (from -145)

(All listed pitchers as of this time.)

Click to expand...

Adding:
Cubs -120 over Tex (from -130)

the old school said:

Yesterday was very good to fade, 6-1 on 10% moves. Today Atl (buy +108, now +116), NYM (buy at -191, now -191), Col (buy +145, now +145) are plays (we try to bet at peak, often at "square" books). Cle will become a play at -200, Stl a play at +110, and SD a play at -131. Good luck!

Click to expand...

Thanks for the input old school.

:thumbsup:

Quantum, here is what I tracked yesterday, little different than yours.



June 19th Examples:

Favorites Where the Line Dropped 12 or more cents:

Brewers -177 ===> 157 (Brewers won 6-2)
Tigers -152 ===> -140 (Tigers won 15-1)
Dodgers -130 ===> -116 (Dodgers Won 10-1)
Cubs -138 ===> -113 (Cubs won 5-4)


Favorites Where the Line Moved Up 12 or more cents:

Twins -135 ===> -148 (Twins won 9-0)
Indians -145 ===> -168 (Lost 9-6)
Oakland -170 ===> -191 ===> -182 (Lost 5-1)


I am going to track this for a few days to see if there is any consistency with it, maybe change the threshold from 12cents to a little higher but right now that number seems to be doing alright. I think it is intersting that Fav's who dropped 12 cents or more swept the board tonight..The tough part is being around the computer come game time and its not something I will always be able to do so if someone knows where to get closing numbers, let me know

Jim Feist has the closing numbers, and line history. By getting the apex of lines (often NOT at the close) you can add 2-4 % to your total return (especially if there is significant takeback). Good luck!

the old school said:

Jim Feist has the closing numbers, and line history. By getting the apex of lines (often NOT at the close) you can add 2-4 % to your total return (especially if there is significant takeback). Good luck!

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Good point old school. My posts are generally to see if there is a valid system here. If that is determined then one should try to find the best line available out there at the best time. That would take a little more effort.

It takes a lot of time, but the returns are good. Examples: Cle went to -196 and NYM went to -184. Over thousands of bets, this can add up!

dont mean to knock what your doing but is there any real evidence that this works in the long run? I always see people fading the public with so called "sharp" action but they always seem to lose as much as they win over a period of time. If this kind of stuff was actually profitable sportsbooks would get killed. I mean I wish you luck tracking this and all but I highly doubt it yields good profit if any.

smartz said:

dont mean to knock what your doing but is there any real evidence that this works in the long run? I always see people fading the public with so called "sharp" action but they always seem to lose as much as they win over a period of time. If this kind of stuff was actually profitable sportsbooks would get killed. I mean I wish you luck tracking this and all but I highly doubt it yields good profit if any.

Click to expand...

Good question smartz. It's tough to research past performance of this since I don't know of any web sites that retain this stuff for very long. That's why I thought I would try it for 10 days to see how it performs.

10 days is certainly not enough to test the viability of a system. However, I figure I will continue this offline if it works for that time.

Smartz - I am just tracking it for fun as well and I want to learn a little bit as well. I am not making plays based on this movement in anyway but I want to know how to think about it in regards to my own betting. I find it interesting that Fav's who had a line drop 12 cents or more went 4-0 last night. They could go 0-2 tonight of they could continue the sweep but if over 2 weeks I find something to note well then its a good lesson learned, If I don't than its still a good lesson learned but no I can find any evidence anywhere of this actually working long term

Braves +103, is this still a play

Sonny SixKill said:

Braves +103, is this still a play

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I would not play it. But this brings up a good point. At what point do you make a play and what point do you hold off even though a game may have been a play earlier.

Here is the line history for that game that I found on covers.com. Notice that it started out at -102, went up to +119, and then back down to +103.

<TABLE class=datalh id=ucLineHistory_tblLineHistory cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" bgColor=#cccccc border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/19/07 2:10:51 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>-102 (Open)</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10 -105 (Open)</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/19/07 2:20:46 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>103</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10 -105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/19/07 7:40:46 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>-102</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10 -105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/19/07 7:50:45 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>103</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10 -105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 12:30:45 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>108</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10 -105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 1:20:46 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>113</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10 -105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 1:40:46 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>109</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10 -105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 1:50:48 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>112</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10 -105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 4:40:45 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>112</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10o -110</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 5:00:46 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>112</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10 -105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 6:10:46 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>117</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10 -105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 6:30:45 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>114</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10 -105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 8:10:45 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>114</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10o -106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 9:20:46 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>119</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10o -106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 11:10:45 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>119</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10o -108</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 11:30:45 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>119</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10o -106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 11:40:46 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>116</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10o -106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 12:40:46 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>116</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10o -109</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 3:10:45 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>116</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10o -106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 3:40:46 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>116</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10u -106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 4:50:45 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>114</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10u -106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 5:20:46 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>114</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10u -109</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 5:30:45 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>115</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10u -112</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 5:40:46 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>115</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10u -114</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 6:20:46 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>115</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10u -115</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 6:30:44 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>113</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10u -115</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 6:50:45 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>107</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10u -115</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 7:00:46 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>105</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10u -115</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>06/20/07 7:10:44 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>104</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>10u -119</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Quantum, what 10pm games are you playing or do you have to wait right up to gametime to make a wager.

Sonny SixKill said:

Quantum, what 10pm games are you playing or do you have to wait right up to gametime to make a wager.

Click to expand...

Another good question Sonny. I will be leaving work soon so I will not be able to follow the line moves. I usually make my decisions by 6:30pm Eastern time. After that I don't have much time to watch the lines closely so I keep the ones that I have.

Sometimes I watch the lines for the 10pm games after I get home but I haven't noticed much change later on.

3-4 tonight as StL comes from behind.

6/13:
Cinc +153 over LAA (from +132): -1.00
Pit -149 over Tex (from -170): +0.67

1-1, -0.33

6/17:
Oak -136 over StL. (from -164): -1.00
Det -125 over Phi (from -137): +0.80
AZ -129 over Balt (from -143): +0.78

2-1, +0.58

6/19:
Cubs -119 over Tex (from -135): +0.84
Milw -163 over SF (from -175): +0.61
Atl +118 over Bos (from +107): -1.00
Det -140 over Wash (from -150): +0.71
Phi +132 over Clev (from +156): +1.32
Cin +157 over Oak (from +172): +1.57
KC +147 over StL (from +137): 0.00

5-1, +4.05

6/20:
Atl +116 over Bos (from -102): -1.00
NYM -191 over Min (from -212): -1.00
Cle -201 over Phi (from -222): +0.50
Col +145 over NYY (from +132): +1.45
StL +108 over KC (from -106): +1.08
SD -134 over Bal (from -145): -1.00
Cubs -120 over Tex (from -130): -1.00

3-4, -0.97

4-day totals: 11-7, +3.28

I tried this Quantum back in April....I followed for about 2 weeks then it totally tanked when I jumped on board going like 4 -14.

I went 2-3, -.99 units; neither STL or SD fit my 10% rule. Smartz, you don't understand the system if you think fading steam is going against the books. By fading steam at the peak, you are betting WITH the books; the books LOVE it when the anti-steam plays win. Actually, the opposite is true: if steam won, THEN the books would get killed. Since the end of Pinnacle USA, the line has not been as sharp as in previous years, and the lines don't move as much as they did in previous years. As I stated in a previous thread, my partner uses the overnight opening line as his standard, while I use the 9 AM line as my "opening" line. In previous years, I made many anti-steam plays (from the 9 AM line), but the line rarely steams from the 9 AM line now. I'm semi-retired from gambling, so I miss many peaks, but my partner (much younger) spends 10+ hours a day monitoring the line, and he gets me down on most of his plays. Even my partner does not play against all steam games (example: Was yesterday with Bacsik going against Det's Bonderman; Bonderman's season WHIP was 1.18 and 3 game WHIP was 1.29, while Bacsik's season WHIP 1.62 and 3 game WHIP was 2.41). My partner and I also monitor our square (i.e., losing) friends' bets. When 85% are on the same team, we tend to fade them. This works better in football when more squares are playing. Does this take a lot of time? Of course, but winning is not easy. Good luck!