four today w/analysis

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HOME TEAM IN CAPS

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">0.00 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">47</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">37</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+46.02 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">113</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">130</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+20.53 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

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Colorado +1.11 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays continue to get plagued by an inefficient offense and the pitcher they’ll be sending out tonight has virtually no chance here should that offense not give him significant support. In 2006 (last season) Josh Towers beat the Devil Rays on May 14 and did not win again as a starter the rest of the season. This year he beat the Tigers on April 15 and has not won as a starter since. He has two wins as a starter over the past two seasons. The bottom line is that when Josh Towers takes the hill the Blue Jays almost always lose and that’s one of the reasons the Rockies are a live dog in this one. It also doesn’t hurt that Colorado is one of the hottest teams in the league, having won nine of 11 and 20 of their last 27 games. That includes a sweep of the Yanks and taking two out of three at Fenway. The opposition is hitting just .235 off Justin Hirsch and in June that average dropped to .225. Hirsh’s road ERA is 3.68 and he just keeps getting better. Frankly, we can’t find a single reason to back the Blue Jays but can find several to play the Rockies including current form and the all-important pitching match-up. Play Colorado +1.11 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Minnesota +1.00 over FLORIDA
The Twins are kicking it into high gear and seem to be primed to make a move after hovering around mediocrity for the first 12 weeks of the season. Minnesota has won seven of 10 and just took two of three from the Mets and swept the Braves last week. It’s also worth noting that they’ve scored 26 times over their past four games. The Twins have won nine of the 14 games Boof Bonser has started and that, too, is significant. Bonser is by no means dazzling but he does have good stuff and in fact, ranks ninth in the AL with 81 K’s to his credit. He’s only been roughed up in three of his 14 starts. Meanwhile, the Fish have just three wins in their last 11 games and just one win in their past six home games. Scott Olsen has walked 40 batters in 84 frames and his lack of consistency continues to be a liability. Olsen is completely hit and miss, as he’s been roughed up in three of his last five starts. The opposition is hitting .284 against him and when you combine that with the number of walks he issues it makes him very risky as a favorite. The pitching match-up here is fairly even but we’ll side with another warm AL team vs a middle-of-the-pack NL team that’s been laboring at home all season long. Play: Minnesota +1.00 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Oakland +1.33 over NY METS
At this point we have no interest whatsoever in Tom Glavine and the Mets as a –1.40 favorite over anyone. The Mets continue to lose way more games then they’re winning and they continue to claw for every run they can muster up. The Mets have scored two runs or less in six of their last nine ball games, winning just twice over that stretch. In addition, Tom Glavine isn’t fooling anybody. In three June starts the opposition hit .391 off Glavine to go along with his 10.97 June ERA. But hey, the guy did win the Cy Young award in 1991 so that must count for something, right? Or perhaps, just perhaps, those 4,250 career innings and his 41 years is beginning to take its toll. Glavine has only struck out 43 batters in 89 frames so you know that the A’s are going to put the ball in play and likely score more then a few. Lenny DiNardo isn’t as good as his numbers suggest but he won’t have to be that good here. There’s no denying that he has the ability to be a very effective starter at this level but he’s still learning. With that being said, DiNardo is much more appealing taking back a price then he is laying a tag. He comes in with a road ERA of 0.71 and overall his ERA is just 2.21. Again, those numbers are a little misleading but this is not the time to go into that. This is the precise time to be taking back a very decent price against the laboring Mets and Tom Glavine. Overlay. Play: Oakland +1.33 (Risking 2 units).<o:p></o:p>
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Philadelphia +1.00 over ST. LOUIS

Let’s see if we have this straight, shall we? The Cardinals play in the major’s worst division and it’s not close. They have two more wins then the Nationals and one more win then the Devil Rays. If they played in the AL they would likely have 16 wins and not 32. The Cardinals are a bad baseball team with the leagues worst pitching staff and that, too, is not close. They can’t hit, they can’t pitch, they can’t relieve and they can’t play defense. At home against lefties they’ve won twice in eight tries and will face one here in Jamie Moyer. Ok, now let’s get to the Cardinals starter for this one, right-hander Anthony Reyes. When Reyes starts the Cardinals have posted a record of 1-9. On a personal note he’s 0-8 with an ERA of 6.34 and the Phillies are 27-17 against righties. Over his last three starts, covering just 16 innings, Reyes’ ERA was 9.37. Last season the Cardinals won the World Series, which is the biggest fraud in the history of sports. The reason we mention that is because Albert Pujols was upset that he lost the MVP award to Ryan Howard and publicly stated so. Said Pujols,” A player who doesn't lead his team to the postseason doesn't deserve to win the MVP award”. The funny thing about that comment is that the Phillies won more games then the Cardinals last season. Anyway, it might not mean much but we all know how stupid remarks don’t do anything but motivate the player and the team the comments were directed at. Not that the Phillies need any help, as they’re the superior squad here and not having to lay anything against the Cardinals here most definitely works for us. Play: Philadelphia +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Thanks for your plays .....I always look forward to reading you write ups,an find myself tailing you to a winning day .....
Douglas
 

antigravity
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Jan 19, 2006
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Your reasoning is so similar to mine on plays we share. its kinda scary. espicially about dinardo. i knew there was no denying he was getting lucky by not allowing runs despite walking the world but glavine and the mets have just been atrocious lately. took me a while to determine if i was gonna bet the A's but ended up throwing a unit on them.
 

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Great to see you Sherwood!

Agree and love your card EXCEPT I wonder just abit if the Rockies will have a letdown after sweeping the Yanks and having to travel through customs all the way to Toronto. GL as always with you on the rest!:aktion033
 

Banned
Joined
Mar 20, 2006
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nice to see you card Sherwood - did my capping and made picks before reading today.

I have 3 of those 4 plays on my cards - but sadly played the Marlins


Good luck tonight

snets
 

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Colorado +1.11 over TORONTO
sick to death over that one .......thank you for your efforts .
 

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