<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">3</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-4.00 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">45</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">38</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+38.92 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">114</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">133</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+16.53 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
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></o>Philadelphia +1.03 over ST. LOUIS (1:05 PM)
No reason whatsoever not to come right back on the superior Phillies against converted reliever Adam Wainright. Wainright might be considered the ace of this woeful rotation but that’s like saying Michael Vick feeds his dogs. Wainright has an ERA near five, the league is hitting .295 off him and that average goes way up at home, where the league is hitting .322 off him. Furthermore, Wainright has had the luxury of facing a slew of weak offenses. A close look shows that he’s faced the Pirates and Astros (when they were going bad) three times each, the Royals and Cubbies twice each and once against the Nats, Dodgers, Colorado, and Cincinnati. His numbers are way below average against that soft group and he’s taking a big step up in class here. After last night’s win the Phillies are now 28-17 against right-handers. Adam Eaton remains an enigma, as he has some of the nastiest stuff in the business but is lacking something else. Eaton can dominate the Tigers one game and go out and get bombed by the Giants in the next start and he’s been like that his whole career. However, he’s on a bit of a roll, as he’s 2-0 over his last three starts with an ERA of 2.33. Adam Wainright, on his best day doesn’t come close to the talent that Eaton possesses and neither do the Cardinals when compared to the Phillies. Cardinals favored here is ludicrous. Play: Philadelphia +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
<o
></o>Chicago (NL) –1.03 over CHICAGO (AL) (1:05 PM)
The White Sox continue to just go through the motions and until we see a dramatic change in them we’ll continue to play against them when the price is right. This is a cheap lay on the Cubs, who have labored too for the most part but at least they come to play and have shown a desire to win. The White Sox rank dead last in the whole league in team batting average, runs scored, on base percentage, RBI’s, total bases, doubles and total hits. They’ve lost 20 of their last 25 games, they’ve lost 12 out of 17 against lefties and will face southpaw Rich Hill here. Hill has surrendered an eye-opening 66 hits in 89 innings of work and has one of the top batting averages against in the league, which is just .205. He ranks second in the NL with a 1.04 WHIP and he even has better numbers than that on the road (.180 batting average against and a 1.02 WHIP). Meanwhile, Javier Vazquez is seemingly just going through the motions also. He’s allowed at four runs or more in five of is last seven starts. He’s 0-2 over his last three starts with an ERA of 6.00. The White Sox have lost eight of the last nine games that Vazquez has started and the South Side has no business being favored here. Losing is highly contagious. Play: Chicago Cubs –1.03 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
<o
></o>FLORIDA +1.11 over Minnesota
In his first start of the year Josh Johnson wasn’t even close and lasted just 3.2 innings against the White Sox. He allowed nine hits and eight earned runs before he was mercilessly pulled. Call it nerves, call it overly excited, call it anxious or call it whatever you want; it happens and we’re not going to put too much weight on one start after a long layoff. What we do know is that Johnson can pitch very effectively at this level and we also know that Carlos Silva should not be road chalk. Silva has started seven games on the road and the Twins have won just two of them. He comes in with a 5.18 road ERA with the opposition hitting a hefty .321 off him. In two of his last three starts the Mets and Nationals torched Silva. In 85.2 innings Silva has allowed 102 hits while striking out a very low 33 batters. This line is predicated on the fact that Johnson was rocky as hell in his first start back but with that out of his system now we much prefer him in his second start. Carlos Silva favored here is just plain incorrect. Play Florida +1.11 (Risking 2 units).<o
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></o>Houston –1½ +1.06 over TEXAS (3:55 PM)
Roy Oswalt has allowed an uncharacteristic 10 earned runs in his last 17 innings pitched, covering three starts and all we can say about that is big fu**$&g deal. Oswalt is the straight goods and we expect him to bounce back big time. The man does everything right and goes right after hitters with the best of them. Furthermore, the Astros bats have really come to life, as they’ve scored 53 times over their last eight games and battered the likes of John Lackey, Bartolo Colon, Felix Hernandez and Chad Gaudin. The Astros will face Jamie Wright in this one, a guy who perfectly fits in with the Rangers. Texas just loves to pick up guys off the scrap heap and try to resurrect their careers. Thus far, in 25 years of doing so, they have zero success stories and this isn’t going to be the first. Wright made his last 12 appearances last season out off the Giants bullpen. His last start before this year was on July 29 of last season. He made one start this year on April 10 and didn’t make it out of the third inning. He was subsequently placed on the DL and returned last week to face the Reds. In two starts in Ranger gear, Wright has allowed 14 hits, nine earned runs and four jacks in just 7.2 innings. It should also be noted that Wright has played for seven teams already in a 10-year career and nobody wants to keep him. This is the worst park for any pitcher to be picked up off the scrap heap for and Wright has about as much chance here as a skinny rooster does in the Philippines. This is the biggest pitching mismatch of the week and as a result we’ll gladly lay the runs with a small take-back. Play: Houston –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
<o
></o>Detroit –1½ +1.03 over ATLANTA (3:55 PM)
How the Braves are going to win this game or stay within two runs is way beyond us. They made 43-year-old Kenny Rogers, a guy that has not pitched this year, look like Sandy Koufax out there. The Braves have been shutout in three straight games and have not scored a run in 28 consecutive innings. The Atlanta Falcons could bat and score once in three games but the Braves cannot. Incredible. Now they’ll face the red hot Tigers and one of the top five pitchers in the game. Justin Verlander has won all six of his career inter-league starts while posting a 2.11 ERA. In three starts against the NL this season, he owns a 1.96 ERA and the best part about all of this is that the Braves have never seen him. Verlander has won seven of his last eight starts. For the Braves it’ll be one of the biggest stiffs the game has to offer. Kyle Davies is constantly behind in the count and that has led to 29 runs in 23 innings over his last five losses. His ERA at Fulton County is 6.00 and his ERA over his last three is 8.36. Note to the Braves; thanks for coming out. Play: Detroit –1½ +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
