Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs Intrinsic Value: -114
Chicago Cubs Consider Betting Price: +100
Chicago White Sox Intrinsic Value: +114
Chicago White Sox Consider Betting Price: +132
Comment:
With the current line, it may appear that the public is finally starting to jump off the Rich Hill bandwagon after his team has lost seven of his last 8 starts. Although in half those starts, he produced quality ones, there is no denying that there has been a structural change in his current pitching form, and he is simply not fooling the hitter like he was earlier in the season. Rich Hill made a living in the minors (highest k/9 ratio) with his dominant curveball, an out pitch which generated a .192 OBA during his first six starts. That said, his curveball hast not been nearly effective in recent outings, and has been a pitch that has allowed three home runs in his last three outings. Hill is a notorious flyball pitcher that can not get away with location mistakes are a high well hit ratio, two variables that have been occurring of late. This holds especially true when playing in the park in which he will today. That said, there are some things to like in Hill in today’s outing. He has been pitching much better on the road this year compared to last year. Going up against one of the most struggling lineups in baseball should boost his confidence and allows him to have fundamental advantages in this game. The White Sox lineup has struggled all year against southpaws, barely cracking a .200 average, while producing only 18 home runs, two deficiencies that should offset Hills recent ones. Despite getting to Hill in his only start against them last year, the sustainability factor is lacking, as both Hill and the White Sox were clearly different entities last year, while the only hitter in the lineup that proved to have success was Iguchi, a batter that has one home run since April 20th. Zambrano’s gem yesterday allowed the Cubs bullpen to get rested and take over the duties if Hills recent form continues.
Guillen appears to be lost when it comes to managing this team. The bullpen struggles all year has forced him to leave his starters out to dry and leave them in one inning too many. Vasquez has been a victim of such all year. Vaszuez, much like Hill, has been prone to the long ball, especially of late. Although only allowing four at home, the ballpark confines coupled with his pitching style appears to make this number more of an anomaly than a sustainable trend. Vasquez’s DERA and NRA shows he has been a better pitcher than his surface numbers indicate this year, while his WHIP would tell you the same story. That said, he is in the midst of a nightmare month for him, which he has produced a career five plus ERA in, and a six plus ERA in the last two years. The return of Ramirez and the addition of the DH spot add even more depth to the Cubs lineup that makes it really hard on a starter to go through the lineup three plus times, which has become a necessity for White Sox starters. If the Cubs chose to put Ward in the DH spot, the Cubs will put five veteran hitters with a large sample of at bats that have produced solid numbers against Vazquez. With even struggles to Jenks, the White Sox will have to score early on Hill, or their chances of winning this game diminishes significantly.
Chicago Cubs Intrinsic Value: -114
Chicago Cubs Consider Betting Price: +100
Chicago White Sox Intrinsic Value: +114
Chicago White Sox Consider Betting Price: +132
Comment:
With the current line, it may appear that the public is finally starting to jump off the Rich Hill bandwagon after his team has lost seven of his last 8 starts. Although in half those starts, he produced quality ones, there is no denying that there has been a structural change in his current pitching form, and he is simply not fooling the hitter like he was earlier in the season. Rich Hill made a living in the minors (highest k/9 ratio) with his dominant curveball, an out pitch which generated a .192 OBA during his first six starts. That said, his curveball hast not been nearly effective in recent outings, and has been a pitch that has allowed three home runs in his last three outings. Hill is a notorious flyball pitcher that can not get away with location mistakes are a high well hit ratio, two variables that have been occurring of late. This holds especially true when playing in the park in which he will today. That said, there are some things to like in Hill in today’s outing. He has been pitching much better on the road this year compared to last year. Going up against one of the most struggling lineups in baseball should boost his confidence and allows him to have fundamental advantages in this game. The White Sox lineup has struggled all year against southpaws, barely cracking a .200 average, while producing only 18 home runs, two deficiencies that should offset Hills recent ones. Despite getting to Hill in his only start against them last year, the sustainability factor is lacking, as both Hill and the White Sox were clearly different entities last year, while the only hitter in the lineup that proved to have success was Iguchi, a batter that has one home run since April 20th. Zambrano’s gem yesterday allowed the Cubs bullpen to get rested and take over the duties if Hills recent form continues.
Guillen appears to be lost when it comes to managing this team. The bullpen struggles all year has forced him to leave his starters out to dry and leave them in one inning too many. Vasquez has been a victim of such all year. Vaszuez, much like Hill, has been prone to the long ball, especially of late. Although only allowing four at home, the ballpark confines coupled with his pitching style appears to make this number more of an anomaly than a sustainable trend. Vasquez’s DERA and NRA shows he has been a better pitcher than his surface numbers indicate this year, while his WHIP would tell you the same story. That said, he is in the midst of a nightmare month for him, which he has produced a career five plus ERA in, and a six plus ERA in the last two years. The return of Ramirez and the addition of the DH spot add even more depth to the Cubs lineup that makes it really hard on a starter to go through the lineup three plus times, which has become a necessity for White Sox starters. If the Cubs chose to put Ward in the DH spot, the Cubs will put five veteran hitters with a large sample of at bats that have produced solid numbers against Vazquez. With even struggles to Jenks, the White Sox will have to score early on Hill, or their chances of winning this game diminishes significantly.
