As Interleague comes to an end today, one would think that the lines would be getting progressively more efficiently set, as both handicappers and linesmakers alike have a better feel on have to value such games. However, in my opinion, this is the second straight day in which the inefficiency of the market warrants at least eight plays.
Most interesting game.
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Cubs Intrinsic Value: +143
Cubs Consider Betting Price: +180
White Sox Intrinsic Value: -143
White Sox Consider Betting Price: -128
Comment:
Today might be the day in which the White Sox have witnessed what I call capitulation by linesmakers, as a rarely undervalued home team is distinctly undervalued from their fair value. It appears that linesmakers are cognitively slapping on a price below what they feel, knowing that takers will be far and few between. However, does value lie in a team playing as poorly as the White Sox have of late?
I am not sure the reason Pinella has chosen to put Hill and Marshall on back to back starts, but I don’t like it, as allowing a team to see to very similar lefties on back to back games seems to give the hitters an advantage. Marshall, much like Hill, has a lot of upside potential, but currently is behind Hill in effectiveness and experience. Although he has pitched well out of the gates, he is simply not consistent or dominating enough to keep his current numbers sustained. He witnessed a setback start in his last outing, as two variables that plagued him last year reoccurred. Those two variables are the long ball and the walks (he has allowed four home runs in his last ten innings and walked three batters in his four inning start against a free swinging Rangers team). Marshall’s curveball and sinker are not as overpowering as Hill’s pitches, and needs the location to be effective. He is not suited for pitching in hitters parks like the one he will be in today, nor does a high walk total ideal against a team struggling to get hits. Although the White Sox will be without one of their power hitters Dye, Podsednik’s return to the lineup provided immediate dividends in yesterday’s game, and could do such again today as Marshall’s slow delivery to the plate opens up opportunities for baserunners. Marshall has also been struggling more against left handed hitters than right handed ones year to date. Another variable that could prove costly for Marshall is the notion that Bucknor is behind home plate, and umpire whose small strike zone could be a huge disadvantage for a high walk rate pitcher, and his propensity to be tougher on young pitchers is a disadvantage for Marshall as well. Although he is backed by a deep bullpen, it is a bullpen that will more than likely be without their closer again in today’s game.
I have been saying for a couple years now that Contreras reemergence as a dominant pitcher will be short lived and the expensive price tags he was carrying for quite some time was unwarranted. It appears that linesmakers and the public finally agree with the notion, as he appears undervalued in today’s game. Contreras has for the most part this year been ineffective and inconsistent, especially of late. However, having to pitch against the Marlins, Yankees, Blue Jays and Phillies in his last four starts will inflate any pitchers numbers and make them look worse than they really are. What I do like about Contreras this year is the fact that he has done a good job keeping the ball in the park, an asset that is magnified in this bandbox and against a lineup who has home run power spread throughout. The Cubs power also predominantly comes from the right side, another favorable variable for Contreras, as he has allowed just one home run all year against right handed hitters. Contreras has also always been more effective throughout his career during day games. His obscure arm angles, delivery and types of pitches has always been hard for hitters to pick up during day games. Having pitched just 185 pitches in his last two outings should also allow Contreras to have a fresher arm than usual, and better avoid their struggling bullpen. The White Sox are not the only lineup that has not looked terribly effective in recent games, as the Cubs have scored in just six of their last 27 innings.
Sure, the White Sox are a risky team to bet on at this point of time. However, on a risk/return tradeoff, in my opinion, linesmakers have transferred the risk back to the Cubs with the line they put forth in this game.
Most Underpriced Favorite
Mets
Intrinsic Value: -175 Market Value -144 Consider Betting Price: -156
Comment:
With both the Yankees and Red Sox producing positive ROI’s of late for public bettors and the Mets offensive woes continuing, it is quite apparent that the “blind money” consistently placed on the Mets has been temporarily been parked on the Red Sox and Yankees, as this is the third straight game in which they are trading well below their worth. Both Maine and Kennedy are pitching well over their heads, as Sabermetric indicators for both pitches show that regression is in the future for both starters. However, once regression occurs, you still have a good pitcher in Maine, but a very average one in Kennedy. Kennedy has struggled all year against right handed hitters, and having to face six of them (five of them being solid ones) today could provide the Mets the favorable fundamental advantage to get their offense back up to par. Maine’s improved control in recent starts (four walks in his last four outings) could not have come at a better time, as the A’s rank second to only Boston in walks. Once both regression prospects leave the game, the Mets will put forth the better bullpen pitchers.
Most Underpriced Underdog
Pirates
Intrinsic Value: -108 Market Value +152 Consider Betting Price: +110
Comment:
There is no denying that the Angels are the public darlings so far this season. Until they slowdown, they will continue to be such. Their solid starters, continued bullpen success and improved hitting have made this team very complete and hard to beat. However, can they sustain this rate? Probably not, and if even with the smallest of slowdown, with the current prices they have been carrying will surely put their going forward ROI in the red. Colon may be injured, as his command, mechanics and confidence all looked shot in recent outings. With his current pitching form, he is a liability on the mound, and exactly what a struggling Pirates lineup needs to get things back on track. The front end of the Angels pen has not been terribly effective in recent outings, a portion in which Colon has not been able to avoid for over a month now. With the way Gorzelanny has been pitching, his current ERA is far from sustainable, and against a hot Angel’s lineup may be the start in which he witnesses’ regression. However, at this price, he is well worth the risk.
Today’s Best game
Red Sox at Padres
Comment:
What do you get when you put a public favorite team like the Red Sox up against a public favorite pitcher like Peavy? Market efficiency, as both inflating variables normally offset each other. With today’s intrinsic value set at -128 for the Padres, there appears to be no value on either team, and a game simply good to watch from a fan’s perspective.
Most interesting game.
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Cubs Intrinsic Value: +143
Cubs Consider Betting Price: +180
White Sox Intrinsic Value: -143
White Sox Consider Betting Price: -128
Comment:
Today might be the day in which the White Sox have witnessed what I call capitulation by linesmakers, as a rarely undervalued home team is distinctly undervalued from their fair value. It appears that linesmakers are cognitively slapping on a price below what they feel, knowing that takers will be far and few between. However, does value lie in a team playing as poorly as the White Sox have of late?
I am not sure the reason Pinella has chosen to put Hill and Marshall on back to back starts, but I don’t like it, as allowing a team to see to very similar lefties on back to back games seems to give the hitters an advantage. Marshall, much like Hill, has a lot of upside potential, but currently is behind Hill in effectiveness and experience. Although he has pitched well out of the gates, he is simply not consistent or dominating enough to keep his current numbers sustained. He witnessed a setback start in his last outing, as two variables that plagued him last year reoccurred. Those two variables are the long ball and the walks (he has allowed four home runs in his last ten innings and walked three batters in his four inning start against a free swinging Rangers team). Marshall’s curveball and sinker are not as overpowering as Hill’s pitches, and needs the location to be effective. He is not suited for pitching in hitters parks like the one he will be in today, nor does a high walk total ideal against a team struggling to get hits. Although the White Sox will be without one of their power hitters Dye, Podsednik’s return to the lineup provided immediate dividends in yesterday’s game, and could do such again today as Marshall’s slow delivery to the plate opens up opportunities for baserunners. Marshall has also been struggling more against left handed hitters than right handed ones year to date. Another variable that could prove costly for Marshall is the notion that Bucknor is behind home plate, and umpire whose small strike zone could be a huge disadvantage for a high walk rate pitcher, and his propensity to be tougher on young pitchers is a disadvantage for Marshall as well. Although he is backed by a deep bullpen, it is a bullpen that will more than likely be without their closer again in today’s game.
I have been saying for a couple years now that Contreras reemergence as a dominant pitcher will be short lived and the expensive price tags he was carrying for quite some time was unwarranted. It appears that linesmakers and the public finally agree with the notion, as he appears undervalued in today’s game. Contreras has for the most part this year been ineffective and inconsistent, especially of late. However, having to pitch against the Marlins, Yankees, Blue Jays and Phillies in his last four starts will inflate any pitchers numbers and make them look worse than they really are. What I do like about Contreras this year is the fact that he has done a good job keeping the ball in the park, an asset that is magnified in this bandbox and against a lineup who has home run power spread throughout. The Cubs power also predominantly comes from the right side, another favorable variable for Contreras, as he has allowed just one home run all year against right handed hitters. Contreras has also always been more effective throughout his career during day games. His obscure arm angles, delivery and types of pitches has always been hard for hitters to pick up during day games. Having pitched just 185 pitches in his last two outings should also allow Contreras to have a fresher arm than usual, and better avoid their struggling bullpen. The White Sox are not the only lineup that has not looked terribly effective in recent games, as the Cubs have scored in just six of their last 27 innings.
Sure, the White Sox are a risky team to bet on at this point of time. However, on a risk/return tradeoff, in my opinion, linesmakers have transferred the risk back to the Cubs with the line they put forth in this game.
Most Underpriced Favorite
Mets
Intrinsic Value: -175 Market Value -144 Consider Betting Price: -156
Comment:
With both the Yankees and Red Sox producing positive ROI’s of late for public bettors and the Mets offensive woes continuing, it is quite apparent that the “blind money” consistently placed on the Mets has been temporarily been parked on the Red Sox and Yankees, as this is the third straight game in which they are trading well below their worth. Both Maine and Kennedy are pitching well over their heads, as Sabermetric indicators for both pitches show that regression is in the future for both starters. However, once regression occurs, you still have a good pitcher in Maine, but a very average one in Kennedy. Kennedy has struggled all year against right handed hitters, and having to face six of them (five of them being solid ones) today could provide the Mets the favorable fundamental advantage to get their offense back up to par. Maine’s improved control in recent starts (four walks in his last four outings) could not have come at a better time, as the A’s rank second to only Boston in walks. Once both regression prospects leave the game, the Mets will put forth the better bullpen pitchers.
Most Underpriced Underdog
Pirates
Intrinsic Value: -108 Market Value +152 Consider Betting Price: +110
Comment:
There is no denying that the Angels are the public darlings so far this season. Until they slowdown, they will continue to be such. Their solid starters, continued bullpen success and improved hitting have made this team very complete and hard to beat. However, can they sustain this rate? Probably not, and if even with the smallest of slowdown, with the current prices they have been carrying will surely put their going forward ROI in the red. Colon may be injured, as his command, mechanics and confidence all looked shot in recent outings. With his current pitching form, he is a liability on the mound, and exactly what a struggling Pirates lineup needs to get things back on track. The front end of the Angels pen has not been terribly effective in recent outings, a portion in which Colon has not been able to avoid for over a month now. With the way Gorzelanny has been pitching, his current ERA is far from sustainable, and against a hot Angel’s lineup may be the start in which he witnesses’ regression. However, at this price, he is well worth the risk.
Today’s Best game
Red Sox at Padres
Comment:
What do you get when you put a public favorite team like the Red Sox up against a public favorite pitcher like Peavy? Market efficiency, as both inflating variables normally offset each other. With today’s intrinsic value set at -128 for the Padres, there appears to be no value on either team, and a game simply good to watch from a fan’s perspective.
