Monday Baseball Numbers and Thoughts

Getting an early start on the games for Monday. There were 7 teams going for sweeps on Sunday..Mets, Cubs, Jays, Angels all swept. Brewers lost in extras and the Rangers and Tigers have yet to play. Some of the numbers are not updated like the hitting because they do not include the games on Sunday however all of the starting pitching numbers are correct.

Red Sox -121 / Mariners +111:

Sox are 25-14 on the road this yr, Mariners are 21-15 at home. Sox are 12-10 in the month of June, Mariners are 13-9 in June..

Tavarez last start = W, 7ip, 3h, 0er, 1bb, 4k @ ATL
Tavarez last 3 = 2-0 (3-0),2.25era, 20ip, 15h, 4bb, 12k, .247obp, .95whip
Tavarez Away= 3-2, 4.29era, 9g, 50.1ip, 46h, 19bb, 36k, .311obp, 1.29whip
Tavarez last 7 = 4-0, 3.65era and has not allowed more than 4er in L9.
**Sox are 8-5 when Tavarez starts.

Weaver last start = W, 9ip, 4h, 0er, 2bb, 5k vs. Pitt
Weaver last 3 = 1-0, 1.89era, 19ip, 16h, 3bb, 10k, .252obp, 1.00whip
Weaver Home = 1-2, 7.63era, 15.1ip, 21h, 4bb, 8k, .362obp, 1.63whip
Weaver Career = 3-5, 6.75era, 12g, 74.2ip, 89h, 56er, 32bb, 46k
Weaver This Yr = 1g, 2ip, 7h, 7er, 2bb, 1k
***Mariners are 2-7 when Weaver starts.
***Sox vs. Weaver = Crisp (.400 in 5ab), Drew (.250 in 12ab), Lowell (.300 in 10ab), Lugo (.333 in 12ab), Ortiz (.304 in 23ab), Manny (.304 in 23ab), Varitek (.421 in 19ab)

Weaver Last 6 starts:
---4/28 vs. Royals: L, .1ip, 7h, 6er, 1bb, 0k
---5/5 @ NYY: L, 5.2ip, 9h, 6er, 3bb, 3k
---5/10 @Det: L, 5ip, 10h, 6er, 0bb, 2k
---6/9 @ SD: ND, 4ip, 2h, 1er, 0bb, 3k
---6/14 @CHC: ND, 6ip, 10h, 3er, 1bb, 2k
---6/20 vs. Pitt: W, 9ip, 4h, 0er, 2bb, 5k

Sox vs. RHP: .268overall, .264away, .255 L10
Mariner vs. RHP: .280overall, .287home, .243 L10

Sox Bullpen: 2.79era overall, .78era L3
Mariner Bullpen: 3.17era overall, 7.82era L3

Other Notes: What are we suppose to think of Weaver? I know what I think and I think he is going to have a lot of trouble w/ the Sox who welcome back the DH to their lineup. He has not done well vs. good offenses (Bos, Minn, NYY, Det, and CHC who got 10 hits off him but only 3er) this yr and this is a cheap price to fade him vs a team he historically has trouble with. Mariners started the Month of June 9-2 but are just 4-7 in their L10 in the month. Tavarez has pitched vs. the Mariners in his career but has never started vs. them. He has however started 9 games on the road this season.


Cards +147 / Mets -157 ....O 9 -120 / U 9 +100:

Maroth will be making his first start this yr in the NL and for a new team. Interesting situation here since this will be his first start since the trade and he went from basically the AL Central leader to the NL Central 3-4th place.. I'm not in his head but there has to be some feelings of disappointment. Now Maroth on the yr is 5-2 w/ 5.06era, 13g, 78.1ip, 97h, 33bb, 28k. Detroit averaged 6.46runs/game when he started. Logically the Cards are not going to support him the way the Tigers did, they just can't. Mets moved to 21-18 at home after Sundays games and the Cards are 16-20 on the road. Mets are 2-8 in their L10 vs. LHP and are 7-14 in the month of June. Cards are 11-10 in the month of June. The series this yr is 3-0 Mets.

Maroth L3 games = 2-0, 4.24era, 17ip, 23h, 9bb, 8k
Maroth Away = 5-0, 5.32era, 8g, 44ip, 59h, 19bb, 16k
*Of his 13 starts this yr, he has given up 4er or more in 7 of them.

Sosa L3 games = 1-2, 5.82era, 17ip, 20h, 5bb, 7k, 1.47whip, .333obp
Sosa Home = 3-1, 3.42era, 23.2ip, 18h, 9bb, 14k, .1.14whip, .273obp
*Sosa last 2 starts = 0-2, 16h, 11er, 3bb, 2k

Cards vs. RHP: .269overall, .268 away, .304 L10
Mets vs. LHP: .302overall, .293 home, .235 L10

Cards Bullpen: 3.02overall, 2.92 L3
Mets Bullpen: 3.72overall, 3.22 L3

Other Notes: Mets have had a very rough June but rebounded w/ a sweep of the A's. Have they turned the corner? I don't know but this is an important series to keep the ball rolling. Tuesday they will face Wellemyer, another pitcher they should be able to get to. Maroth making the transition to a new team will be very interesting to watch. The overall division is weak so he might have some success but the Mets lineup is not.. Sosa has been terrible the last 2 games but has pitched pretty good at home. The over looks strong as well since both of these pitchers have been gotten to lately. Mets have had some struggles vs. LHP during their slump in June but this will be the 3rd LHP they see in 4days and on the yr they have hit them better.


Dodgers -130 / DBacks +120....O 8.5 -105 / U 8.5 -115:

Dodgers continue their road trip with a trip to Arizona. So far they are are 3-3, winning the series vs. the Jays and losing the series to the Rays. DBacks just took out the Orioles and the Rays for two straight series wins at home but they did drop the first game in each series. These two teams have met up 5times this yr, LAD lead series 4-1 and took both games in Zona. Dodgers on the road are 20-19 and the DBacks are 24-16 at home.

Penny L3: 2-0, 1.25era, 21.2ip, 18h, 1bb, 19k, .238obp, .88whip
Penny Away: 5-1, 2.98era, 45.1ip, 47h, 10bb, 32k, .314obp, 1.26whip
Penny This yr vs. DBacks: 1-0, 0.69era, 2g, 13ip, 8h, 1er, 7bb, 6k
Penny Career: 6-2, 1.88era, 13g, 81.1ip, 67h, 17er, 19bb, 58k
**Dodgers are 13-2 when Penny pitches.
**DBacks vs. Penny = Byrnes (.357 in 14), Drew (.143 in 7), Hudson (.273 in 11), Jackson (.400 in 10), Quentin (.714 in 7), Tracy (.278 in 8)

Owings L3: 1-0, 4.58era, 17.2ip, 21h, 5bb, 11k, .346obp, 1.47whip
Owings home: 3-1, 3.48era, 44ip, 45h, 14bb, 34k, .330obp, 1.34whip
Owings vs. LAD this yr: 4ip, 4h, 3er, 2bb, 3k, 3 HR
**DBacks are 7-4 when Owings starts.
**Owings has only given up 5HR this yr, all have come at home.

LAD vs RHP: .260overall, .258away, .296 L10
DBacks vs. RHP: .257overall, .258home, .270 L10

LAD bullpen: 3.43era overall, 2.05era L3
DBacks bullpen: 2.74era overall, 1.59era L3

Other Notes: DBacks did win 2/3 from Penny last yr and some of their batters have some pretty nice numers vs him. He has however been solid this yr minus the start @ LAA. Penny has 12 starts of 2er of less this season. For an under I wish I could see Owings worked a little longer into games but that will come with time, kid is only a rookie. Prior to last start vs. TB, 9 of Owings 10 starts were for 3er or less. Owings lasted only 4innings in his only start vs. LAD this yr but gave up 3 HR's, on the yr he has only given up 5hr, all of which have come at home, in 62.2innings.


Doing Rockies-Cubs, WSox-Drays, BJ-Twins. Will think about Nationals-Braves (under)...maybe few more, who knows.

Regarding the Sox, my first thought was that they never do too well on these west coast trips. They were able to start off pretty well against San Diego, but that was with solid pitching lined up for the series against a generally weak offense. But Seattle makes me worry just a little because they haven't played well out there in the past couple years. Both pitchers have been throwing pretty well lately, but of the two I have more faith in Tavares. The Sox should be able to hit Weaver pretty hard, but the Mariners offense isn't too shabby either and I believe they are near the top of the league in batting. In the end, I think that getting the Sox around -120 against Weaver is a solid play.

In the Mets/Cards game, my first impression is a lean toward St. Louis. Maroth should find the going much better against the NL. I believe he's had some pretty decent success against the NL despite a poor performance in his last start against the Nats. The line just seems high, possibly because the Mets are right back to being overrated after sweeping the A's. But Sosa just hasn't done all that much lately to be seeing that line.

For the Dodgers game, I think I'd have to lean toward backing Penny at that price. Owings has been consistent, but some of the shine has come off in a bit IMO. Penny has just been too solid all year long to pass up at that price. Again, that's just an initial reaction though.

First Jibba, Thanks for your post.

Regarding the Sox, my first thought was that they never do too well on these west coast trips. They were able to start off pretty well against San Diego, but that was with solid pitching lined up for the series against a generally weak offense. But Seattle makes me worry just a little because they haven't played well out there in the past couple years. Both pitchers have been throwing pretty well lately, but of the two I have more faith in Tavares. The Sox should be able to hit Weaver pretty hard, but the Mariners offense isn't too shabby either and I believe they are near the top of the league in batting. In the end, I think that getting the Sox around -120 against Weaver is a solid play.

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Thats what drew me in. I feel like Tavarez will pitch decent enough to win this game with enough run support from his offense. The line is playable at this # but if it rises much higher than in my mind it might not be worth it too much...Weaver, I just can't take this guy seriously right now. He has not beaten a good offense this yr or contained a good offense for that matter. Weaver has 1 win, vs. Pitt, in a series that they scored 5run in 3 games. Their offense was far from clicking then and they are one of baseball bottom third offenses.. Weaver is very hittable and the Sox have seen enough of him in their careers. Seattle was red hot from Mid May all the way into mid Junee but its impossible to maintain the kind of pace they were on and they have slowed down since.

In the Mets/Cards game, my first impression is a lean toward St. Louis. Maroth should find the going much better against the NL. I believe he's had some pretty decent success against the NL despite a poor performance in his last start against the Nats. The line just seems high, possibly because the Mets are right back to being overrated after sweeping the A's. But Sosa just hasn't done all that much lately to be seeing that line.

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I do disagree here about Maroth. He got 6.4 runs of support from the Tigers on average in all of his starts combined this yr. The guy sports a 5.04era and a 5-2 record. KC got to him 3 times, twice for 4er and once for 5er and he went 1-0 in those 3 starts. Angels got to him for 5 runs and he lost the game. The next two games were vs. the Indians and they hammered him for 5er both times and he went 0-1 in those two starts. The last bad start came vs. the Nationals and he got the ND after giving up 4er. His offense has bailed him out a lot and the Cards don't have an offense for that. Now aside from all that, mentally, don't you feel like there has to be some kind of impact there? He went from the team that was going to the playoffs in the AL Central to the team who is nothing in the NL Central right now. Now I will say, I wouldn't play the Mets -157, I would do a -1 to get some more value and I do like the over here as well since Sosa has not been good in his last two starts. The Mets though statistically have hit LHP better than RHP this yr and this is the 3rd one they see in 4 days so that is good in the fact that they have just defeated the first two of them. The Mets are no slouch on offense either and factor in that Maroth struggles with RH batters more than LH batters he will see Reyes, Lo Duca, Beltran, Wright all at the top of the order, all from the right side.

For the Dodgers game, I think I'd have to lean toward backing Penny at that price. Owings has been consistent, but some of the shine has come off in a bit IMO. Penny has just been too solid all year long to pass up at that price. Again, that's just an initial reaction though.

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Agree here as my initial reaction. Hard to pass up a guy whose team is 13-2 when he pitches at -130. Also the Dodgers are like 34-1 when LEADING after the 6th inning.

One other note Jibba... Mets play small ball, they steal a lot of bases and Gary Bennet is the worst catcher in baseball at throwing guys out. If Gomez and Reyes get on they will steal to 2nd all day, Wright and Beltran will pick their spots as well. Bennett has caught 1 base runner in 19 attempts

Does anyone have any information about Bergmann for the Nationals. This will be his first start back from elbow inflamation, funny cause his last start before going on the DL was vs. the Braves; 8ip-2h-1er-1bb-10k. His other start vs. ATL was 6ip-1h-0er-4bb-8k...Given Hudson's success vs. Nats, the loss of Guzman, and the Braves inability to hit anyone, I like the Under here.

Is he going to be on a pitch count? How did his rehab start(s) go?

everythingthatsgreen said:

Thats what drew me in. I feel like Tavarez will pitch decent enough to win this game with enough run support from his offense. The line is playable at this # but if it rises much higher than in my mind it might not be worth it too much...Weaver, I just can't take this guy seriously right now. He has not beaten a good offense this yr or contained a good offense for that matter. Weaver has 1 win, vs. Pitt, in a series that they scored 5run in 3 games. Their offense was far from clicking then and they are one of baseball bottom third offenses. Weaver is very hittable and the Sox have seen enough of him in their careers. Seattle was red hot from Mid May all the way into mid Junee but its impossible to maintain the kind of pace they were on and they have slowed down since.

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Yeah, Tavarez has been solid for the Sox this year and days when he pitches are one of the few times you'll get the Sox at a number like this. And they've now won 6 of his last 7 starts. I also agree on Weaver. I absolutely see him coming back to Earth tonight against this lineup. The Sox have hit him hard in the past, including a 2 inning, 7 hit, 7 ER affair back in April.

I do disagree here about Maroth. He got 6.4 runs of support from the Tigers on average in all of his starts combined this yr. The guy sports a 5.04era and a 5-2 record. KC got to him 3 times, twice for 4er and once for 5er and he went 1-0 in those 3 starts. Angels got to him for 5 runs and he lost the game. The next two games were vs. the Indians and they hammered him for 5er both times and he went 0-1 in those two starts. The last bad start came vs. the Nationals and he got the ND after giving up 4er. His offense has bailed him out a lot and the Cards don't have an offense for that. Now aside from all that, mentally, don't you feel like there has to be some kind of impact there? He went from the team that was going to the playoffs in the AL Central to the team who is nothing in the NL Central right now. Now I will say, I wouldn't play the Mets -157, I would do a -1 to get some more value and I do like the over here as well since Sosa has not been good in his last two starts. The Mets though statistically have hit LHP better than RHP this yr and this is the 3rd one they see in 4 days so that is good in the fact that they have just defeated the first two of them. The Mets are no slouch on offense either and factor in that Maroth struggles with RH batters more than LH batters he will see Reyes, Lo Duca, Beltran, Wright all at the top of the order, all from the right side.

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The difference I expect to see with Maroth isn't his own personal W-L record. The difference I expect is in his ratios. In my opinion, he's just not as bad as his numbers tell us. So while I agree that less run suppot is a negative aspect of the move, I do think we'll see a better pitcher overall against the weaker lineups in the NL. Plus, as I said before Maroth has shown he can put up good performances against the NL. In the last three years against the NL, the Nats game aside, he's put up the following numbers:

2007:
MIL: 7 IPs, 9 hits, 1 ERs

2006:
CIN: 6.1 IPs, 6 hits, 3 ERs

2005:
SF: 5 IPs, 7 hits, 4 ERs
SDG: 8 IPs, 6 hits, 1 ERs
COL: 7 IPs, 7 hits, 2 ERs

Overall, in 18 starts against the NL, Maroth has put up a pretty solid 3.75 ERA. And he'll be facing a Mets team that was playing like garbage up until just 3 or 4 days ago, having gone 5-15 and hitting .261 in that span. Lastly, Sosa is clearly reverting to the mediocre pitcher he has been most of his career, having given up 13 runs and 16 hits across only 9 innings in his last 2 starts. With this line currently at +166 on MB, if it continues to rise, which it almost certainly will, I may have to play the doggies.

Agree here as my initial reaction. Hard to pass up a guy whose team is 13-2 when he pitches at -130. Also the Dodgers are like 34-1 when LEADING after the 6th inning.

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Completely agree.

good stuff guys. trying to break down some games now. im really liking the under in the braves game, even if bergmann cant go long. both offenses stink. dont expect many if any long balls, and both offenses struggling to string together hits.

taking a look at rangers at 2 to 1. rangers team can take bonderman long. loe was sharp in last start, albeit against the pirates. however, in is quick stint back in the minors a coach made a pitching adjustment with his arm angle. many people might not know this. they may be on to something.

i really like the drays at this cheap price against a horrific offense.

anyone have any thoughts on the cubs game or the a's?

has bergmann been scratched for the nats?

finman13 said:

has bergmann been scratched for the nats?

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what makes you say that?

As far as I can tell he's still a go.

Jibba - We agree completely on the BoSox/Dodgers and where we disagree is with Maroth. The Mets are priced out of my range now but that doesn't mean I would back the Cards here, I am just going to skip the game although I like the over a little bit... While Maroth has a 3.75era vs. NL teams, my point is that the Mutts are really not an NL lineup. They have hitters that hit LHP very well. They slumped to start June but every team goes through peaks and valleys, I think they are the class of the NL and one of these days they will start playing like it again. Last series could have been the catalyst although it is too early to tell. The Mets ran into some tough teams in IL play so maybe getting back to playing NL competition is what they need. Now Maroth might throw up some good numbers vs. the NL Central, that I don't doubt however I think he is walking into a very tough situation today vs. a Mutts team that wants to keep rolling, hits LHP well on the yr, and is built like a strong AL lineup. It doesn't look like we'll agree on that so its moot to keep going back and forth although I will be watching his start tonight closely. Also Gary Bennet, like I said before, is the worst catcher in baseball at throwing guys out. I think the Mets run all series on the Cards and that means runners in scoring position and runs on timely hits.

finman13 said:

good stuff guys. trying to break down some games now. im really liking the under in the braves game, even if bergmann cant go long. both offenses stink. dont expect many if any long balls, and both offenses struggling to string together hits.

taking a look at rangers at 2 to 1. rangers team can take bonderman long. loe was sharp in last start, albeit against the pirates. however, in is quick stint back in the minors a coach made a pitching adjustment with his arm angle. many people might not know this. they may be on to something.

i really like the drays at this cheap price against a horrific offense.

anyone have any thoughts on the cubs game or the a's?

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I do agree with the Under in the Nationals game although I would like to see the ump first. The loss of Guzman is going to set the Nationals offense back. I skipped the Rangers game, don't feel like taking a shot on that team really. I don't know if I can fully justify laying -130 with the DRays and that bullpen, granted the WSux are worse on offense and prob have a worse bullpen, Howell is a little unknown to me. I don't know though, I leaned to them last night at home.

I like Francis and the Cubs although they swept the WSux, they didn't light the world on fire in doing so. Rockies just got swept but were a hot team prior to that series and their offense is pretty tough with the first 4 batters all hitting well over .300. I don't know what to think of this Indians team right now but Gaudin was due to get beat last start, his numbers were getting worse each start and it might be due to fatgiue being that he was a reliever gone starter.

Anyone hear anything about the Oak/Cleveland game? It seems to be off the board at Matchbook, or maybe there's just not anybody out there who wants to play that one. Not sure but seems weird.

And ETG, I hear you on the Mets lineup, but again they were hitting terrible until just a couple days ago (about 30 points lower than their season average for a span of 20 games). I just think the only value is on the dog in that one. Will post my writeup in my thread in a few. Just waiting on the line but it doesn't seem to be getting any higher. Bit surprised by that actually.

CC is starting for Clev now..

Jibba - Value wise, I guess I have to agree since I think -173 for Sosa is a little nuts, that is a price range reserved for established pitchers who are consistent in what they do.

Guys there are 3 games which I think are going to be verrry popular today..

BoSox, Dodgers, Blue Jays..

If the books suckered me in than so be it..I have plays on the BoSox-1 and the Dodgers ML...Don't know if I will be playing anything else today. Good Luck to all

How about Milwaukee tonight?GL with your plays.