Still slowly working my way back into it. Just picking days to cap when I know I'll have more than enough time to put into it. Went 3-2 for +0.75 units my last time out and am still around +20 units on the year. I'll definitely be updating my record at some point in the near future. Upping most of these plays back up to 1.5 units though.
Red Sox -125: I usually fade or stay away from the Sox when they head out west because these west coast trips are generally not that kind to Boston. But after getting a nice start against a solid Padres team and coming in tonight against Jeff Weaver, I really think they get the W here. There really is no reason not to assume the Sox will get to Weaver, as they've hit him hard in the past. Back in April, Boston put up 7 hits and 7 ERs in 2 innings against Weaver in Fenway. And in 12 career starts against the Sox, Weaver is 3-5 with a 6.75 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a .300 BAA. David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Jason Varitek and Eric Hinske have all hit Weaver hard in at least 19 at bats each. A number of others have also had success against him in limited at bats. With a night game after a day game, I don't think Boston will be playing tired, as they often do on these west coast trips. And with that being the case, I just can't see them putting up less than 4 or 5 against Weaver.
Nights when Julian Tavares pitches are some of the only times you'll ever get the Sox at a reasonable price. For some reason the public just doesn't have faith in him. And that's reasonable to an extent, but we have to remember that any regular starter on the Sox is going to get a good share of wins. And that's just what Tavares has done. In fact, the Sox have won 6 of his last 7 starts and Tavares has a personal winning streak of 4 games. During that stretch, which has lasted 7 appearances, Tavares has quietly put up a 3.65 ERA. Additionally, although it's hard to predict results based on prior relief appearances against a team, Tavares has been very successful against the Mariners in the past. In 18 relief appearances, Tavares has put up a 1.98 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .255 BAA against the M's. And aside from Jose Vidro, not a player on this Seattle team has hit him well in the past.
Finally, this Sox team has consistently been winning games they should be winning. Over their last 53 games as a favorite, Boston has won a whopping 73.6 percent. I see them continuing this trend and improving their already 11 games above .500 road record against a very weak starter tonight. 1.88 units to win 1.5.
Bluejays -132: The Twins lineup just doesn't impress me without Justin Morneau. And while it may be enough to beat an NL team like the Marlins, I don't like their chances against Toronto and Roy Halladay. Minnesota has a great record against the NL, so their solid stretch over the past 2 weeks (8-4 against Atlanta, Milwaukee, NYM, and Florida) only means so much in my eyes. I expected them to get their interleague wins. But they'll have their hands full with Halladay tonight.
In his career, Halladay is 5-0 in 7 starts (9 appearances) against Minnesota with a 2.20 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a .202 BAA. And he's looking to win his 5th straight after coming off the DL. Although he pitched a complete dud against Tampa Bay in early June, he has looked pretty dominating in his 4 other starts since returning. And I expect that to continue against this much-weakened Minnesota offense. 1.98 units to win 1.5.
Angels -1.5, -124: I generally don't like taking home teams on the run line, especially if I have to pay juice to do so. But this situation is different and is a very solid value IMO. LA's offense has been very solid at home this year and should have absolutely no problem with John Thomson in his first start of the year for the lowly Royals. After all, Thomson is only getting the call because Scott Elarton and his 9.17 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, and .320 BAA is injured. The Angels have won 16 of 21 in June and 17 of their last 21 at home.
For the Angels, John Lackey will take the hill tonight. After putting up his first real dud of the year in his last start, this weak KC offense is just what the doctor ordered. Although Lackey has been about mediocre against KC in the past (although with a 3.69 ERA), I expect that to improve tonight. Lackey has really turned a corner this year and is absolutely dominating at times. Lastly, this isn't a case of trying to reduce juice to play a big favorite, as often happens with pitchers like Peavy, Haren, Penny, etc. While we do have a top notch starter going tonight, we also have a top notch offense and a bottom of the pack team and starter as their opponents. That's the perfect recipe for a money line play IMO. 1.86 units to win 1.5.
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I also have 2 (SD and St. Louis), possibly 3 (LAD) more plays and am just waiting on the lines. May post the writeups in a few just to get them out of the way. BOL to everyone on their cards today.
Red Sox -125: I usually fade or stay away from the Sox when they head out west because these west coast trips are generally not that kind to Boston. But after getting a nice start against a solid Padres team and coming in tonight against Jeff Weaver, I really think they get the W here. There really is no reason not to assume the Sox will get to Weaver, as they've hit him hard in the past. Back in April, Boston put up 7 hits and 7 ERs in 2 innings against Weaver in Fenway. And in 12 career starts against the Sox, Weaver is 3-5 with a 6.75 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a .300 BAA. David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Jason Varitek and Eric Hinske have all hit Weaver hard in at least 19 at bats each. A number of others have also had success against him in limited at bats. With a night game after a day game, I don't think Boston will be playing tired, as they often do on these west coast trips. And with that being the case, I just can't see them putting up less than 4 or 5 against Weaver.
Nights when Julian Tavares pitches are some of the only times you'll ever get the Sox at a reasonable price. For some reason the public just doesn't have faith in him. And that's reasonable to an extent, but we have to remember that any regular starter on the Sox is going to get a good share of wins. And that's just what Tavares has done. In fact, the Sox have won 6 of his last 7 starts and Tavares has a personal winning streak of 4 games. During that stretch, which has lasted 7 appearances, Tavares has quietly put up a 3.65 ERA. Additionally, although it's hard to predict results based on prior relief appearances against a team, Tavares has been very successful against the Mariners in the past. In 18 relief appearances, Tavares has put up a 1.98 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .255 BAA against the M's. And aside from Jose Vidro, not a player on this Seattle team has hit him well in the past.
Finally, this Sox team has consistently been winning games they should be winning. Over their last 53 games as a favorite, Boston has won a whopping 73.6 percent. I see them continuing this trend and improving their already 11 games above .500 road record against a very weak starter tonight. 1.88 units to win 1.5.
Bluejays -132: The Twins lineup just doesn't impress me without Justin Morneau. And while it may be enough to beat an NL team like the Marlins, I don't like their chances against Toronto and Roy Halladay. Minnesota has a great record against the NL, so their solid stretch over the past 2 weeks (8-4 against Atlanta, Milwaukee, NYM, and Florida) only means so much in my eyes. I expected them to get their interleague wins. But they'll have their hands full with Halladay tonight.
In his career, Halladay is 5-0 in 7 starts (9 appearances) against Minnesota with a 2.20 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a .202 BAA. And he's looking to win his 5th straight after coming off the DL. Although he pitched a complete dud against Tampa Bay in early June, he has looked pretty dominating in his 4 other starts since returning. And I expect that to continue against this much-weakened Minnesota offense. 1.98 units to win 1.5.
Angels -1.5, -124: I generally don't like taking home teams on the run line, especially if I have to pay juice to do so. But this situation is different and is a very solid value IMO. LA's offense has been very solid at home this year and should have absolutely no problem with John Thomson in his first start of the year for the lowly Royals. After all, Thomson is only getting the call because Scott Elarton and his 9.17 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, and .320 BAA is injured. The Angels have won 16 of 21 in June and 17 of their last 21 at home.
For the Angels, John Lackey will take the hill tonight. After putting up his first real dud of the year in his last start, this weak KC offense is just what the doctor ordered. Although Lackey has been about mediocre against KC in the past (although with a 3.69 ERA), I expect that to improve tonight. Lackey has really turned a corner this year and is absolutely dominating at times. Lastly, this isn't a case of trying to reduce juice to play a big favorite, as often happens with pitchers like Peavy, Haren, Penny, etc. While we do have a top notch starter going tonight, we also have a top notch offense and a bottom of the pack team and starter as their opponents. That's the perfect recipe for a money line play IMO. 1.86 units to win 1.5.
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I also have 2 (SD and St. Louis), possibly 3 (LAD) more plays and am just waiting on the lines. May post the writeups in a few just to get them out of the way. BOL to everyone on their cards today.
