Tuesday Thoughts

Split yesterday. Dream Weaver got the best of 85% of the people in this world. Here are some leans...


Reds +140:

Simply put this game would be a value play. You got two rookies, one with 2 games here and 1 with 3 games.. Reds are 2-1 when Bailey pitches, Philly is 2-0 when Kendrick pitches. Bailey I think is the better pitching prospect of the two, I am sure most would agree but he is on the shitter team. I just find it hard to believe that Bailey would be a doggie to Kendrick at home if you took off .30 or .40 he would be +110/+100.

Bailey: 2-0(2-1) 4.00era, 18ip, 14h, 7k, 11bb, 1.39whip, .355obp
Kendrick: 1-0 (2-0) 4.50era, 12ip, 11h, 5k, 3bb, 1.17whip, .300obp

Now the drawbacks here is that Bailey from what I understand is a fly ball pitcher, from the looks of it he has also struggled with his control.. These are two things that can get you into trouble real fast...He is yet to give up a HR yet but that can change easily in Philly's little park. His GB:FB ratio is 1.14 overall. Kendrick has a 1.58 GB:FB ratio and a better overall whip and obp. Bullpen wise, these two are close to a wash. Philly is a little better at home than Reds on the road.

Rockies +130:

This is like a Rockies are due to win kind of though. They are 16-5 in their last 21 as an underdog.. Pitching wise if you want to give the Cubs the advantage, its very slight. Rodrigo might have found a home in the NL just as Lilly has where he is away from the AL East and can have an easier time pitching. Rockies are 7-1 when Lopez pitches and the Cubs just 6-9 when Lilly starts. Lilly has pitched very well his L3.

Lopez this yr: 4-0, 2.93era, 8g, 46ip, 50h, 8bb, 25k, 1.26whip, .310obp
Lopez L3: 2-0, 2.89era, 18.2ip, 21h, 3bb, 8k, 1.29whip, .308obp

Lilly L3: 1-0, 3.45era, 15.2ip, 12h, 2bb, 15k, 0.89whip, .250obp
Lilly Home: 3-3, 2.95era, 55ip, 44h, 9bb, 44k, .96whip, .256obp


Are the Rockies going to wake up or keep sliding? This is now a collision of streaks, Rockies L4-Cubs W4.. Cubs hitting RHP pretty good as of late and the Rockies struggle a little more with LHP than they do w/ RHP. Still even after today, the Cubs are a below average home team and their bullpen is worse than the Rockies.

off to bed, a lot of this could change in the morning.

Other leans = Cards/Mets Over 9, Dodgers -105, Yankees/Orioles U9, Jays -105, Royals +159, WSux/Drays U9 -105

Keep The Wheels Turning Pal

Between you BG, & Jibba, the info & observations you post are priceless. The pics are our responsibility. To do with what we will, win or lose. Thanks again and all the best of it to you. Just an afterthought, that Reds/Phils gm in that park, w/2 of the highest HR & run producing tms, seems to beg OVER! ?

Just discovered you

everythingthatsgreen said:

Split yesterday. Dream Weaver got the best of 85% of the people in this world. Here are some leans...


Reds +140:

Simply put this game would be a value play. You got two rookies, one with 2 games here and 1 with 3 games.. Reds are 2-1 when Bailey pitches, Philly is 2-0 when Kendrick pitches. Bailey I think is the better pitching prospect of the two, I am sure most would agree but he is on the shitter team. I just find it hard to believe that Bailey would be a doggie to Kendrick at home if you took off .30 or .40 he would be +110/+100.

Bailey: 2-0(2-1) 4.00era, 18ip, 14h, 7k, 11bb, 1.39whip, .355obp
Kendrick: 1-0 (2-0) 4.50era, 12ip, 11h, 5k, 3bb, 1.17whip, .300obp

Now the drawbacks here is that Bailey from what I understand is a fly ball pitcher, from the looks of it he has also struggled with his control.. These are two things that can get you into trouble real fast...He is yet to give up a HR yet but that can change easily in Philly's little park. His GB:FB ratio is 1.14 overall. Kendrick has a 1.58 GB:FB ratio and a better overall whip and obp. Bullpen wise, these two are close to a wash. Philly is a little better at home than Reds on the road.

Rockies +130:

This is like a Rockies are due to win kind of though. They are 16-5 in their last 21 as an underdog.. Pitching wise if you want to give the Cubs the advantage, its very slight. Rodrigo might have found a home in the NL just as Lilly has where he is away from the AL East and can have an easier time pitching. Rockies are 7-1 when Lopez pitches and the Cubs just 6-9 when Lilly starts. Lilly has pitched very well his L3.

Lopez this yr: 4-0, 2.93era, 8g, 46ip, 50h, 8bb, 25k, 1.26whip, .310obp
Lopez L3: 2-0, 2.89era, 18.2ip, 21h, 3bb, 8k, 1.29whip, .308obp

Lilly L3: 1-0, 3.45era, 15.2ip, 12h, 2bb, 15k, 0.89whip, .250obp
Lilly Home: 3-3, 2.95era, 55ip, 44h, 9bb, 44k, .96whip, .256obp


Are the Rockies going to wake up or keep sliding? This is now a collision of streaks, Rockies L4-Cubs W4.. Cubs hitting RHP pretty good as of late and the Rockies struggle a little more with LHP than they do w/ RHP. Still even after today, the Cubs are a below average home team and their bullpen is worse than the Rockies.

off to bed, a lot of this could change in the morning.

Other leans = Cards/Mets Over 9, Dodgers -105, Yankees/Orioles U9, Jays -105, Royals +159, WSux/Drays U9 -105

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Would you please post your record? Thanks.

Jack,

He hasn't been keeping a record, as he hasn't really been posting picks. He mostly posts information.

ETG,

Surprised you didn't have any thoughts on the A's. That seems to be the popular play today. And although I haven't seen anyone on either side of it yet, I think Tampa looks like a solid play considering that the Chi Sox are pretty much dead in the water right now.

ETG - Just woke up, checked the line and saw Haren -119...I don't know if I can pass that up..I am just writing some tho0ughts on games now.

Jack - Jibba is right, I am here for informational purposes..

Cards / Mets Over 9 -120:

I will be the first to say I don't like that kind of juice but the over is 17-5-3 in ST. Louie's last 25 road games. I am drawn into this total first because of the St. Louie pitcher..

Todd Wellemyer = 2-0(5-0), 4.66era, 29ip, 34h, 12bb, 25k, 1.59whip, .361obp
Wellemyer L3 = 1-0 (3-0), 5.27era, 13.2ip, 18h, 10k, 4bb, .348obp, 1.61whip

St. Louie supports this guy big time when he pitches. In his 5 starts they have scored 8,4,9,15,7 runs. He puts a lot of people on base but hasn't really paid the price for it yet.

Now Perez hasn't been that sharp as of late either and the Cards have a good history vs. him.

Perez L3 = 1-2, 4.58era, 17.2ip, 17h, 13bb, 13k, .366obp, 1.70whip
Perez Home = 4-3, 3.40era, 50.1ip, 34h, 22bb, 48k, 278obp, 1.11whip
Perez Career = 2-5, 4.83era, 11g, 63.1ip, 66h, 25bb, 52k
****Cards vs. Perez = .444 in 9ab, Encarnacion = .294 in 17ab, Pujols = .375 in 24ab, Rolen = .450 in 20ab, Taguchi = .294 in 17ab.

Important to note that LoDuca will play until his appeal is heard. Rolen didn't play yesterday because of a bruise on his foot and his doubtful for today.

I posted something about Gay Bennet yesterday and the Mets didn't get on base enough to take advantage. Today should be a different story. Gary Bennet is ranked dead last in catcher at throwing people out, when the Mets get on base, that will be a big problem.

Umpire = Ted Barret who is 5-6 O/U this yr and 16-20 O/U in 06'.

Weather = hot as hell.


Dodgers -103:

I noted yesterday this was an important series, the most important one the DBacks have played this yr...why? Because they are in first place and being chased for the first time all yr in a meaningful game. The Dodgers are taking this series pretty serious as well since they took Penny from his scheduled start on Sunday and pushed him back to Monday for the DBacks. Dodgers are now 5-1 in the series this yr.

Billingsley last start = 3.2ip, 2h, 2er, 3bb, 2k, 70pitches
Billingsley Career = 3-0, 1.06era, 2g, 17ip, 16h, 2er, 4bb, 7k

Included in those Career #'s are two starts last yr in Arizona that resulted in 2 wins, 14ip, 15h, 2er, 3bb, 5k.

"The Sports Xchange reports that Chad Billingsley didn't need to throw a lot of pitches to show that he was ready to return to the Dodgers' rotation. Seventy pitches did just fine. Billingsley made his first start of the season Thursday -- in place of injured Jason Schmidt -- and threw 70 pitches in 3 2/3 innings. His limit going into the game was 60 pitches, but a quick third inning convinced manager Grady Little to leave him in for three more batters. Billingsley allowed two hits, three walks and two runs, and he struck out two. He didn't get a decision, but he wasn't expecting one. "I was a little bit nervous getting back into the starting rotation, but I felt comfortable out there," Billingsley said.....Little planned to have Billingsley increase his pitch count in subsequent starts with the idea of reaching 90 pitches by his third start. Provided Billingsley feels good two days after his initial start, he could be looking at 90 pitches by his next outing. "We're happy with the progress he's made this year," Little said. "I think everyone knows that this guy is a starting pitcher. It was just a matter of when we were going to put him back in that role, whether it would be sometime during the course of this season or next spring. His time is now, and we're very confident." -sportsline.com


Edgar Gonzalez L3 = 2-0, 3.00era, 15ip, 11h, 5bb, 9k, .262obp, 1.07whip
Gonzalez home = 1-1, 6.16era, 30.2ip, 34h, 7bb, 21k, .331obp, 1.34whip
Gonzalez this yr = 0-1, 6.1ip, 9h, 5er, 2bb, 4k
Gonzalez Career = 0-3, 9.92era, 3g, 16.1ip, 28h, 18er, 5bb, 12k

Gonzalez has been going back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation all yr and now that Randy has been out, he is back to a starter. He does not have success vs. the Dodgers at all but it is important to note that the Baby Backs are 5-2 when Gonzalez does start.

Other Notes: Even with Billingsley's pitch count, its not a high concern because the bullpen was hardly used in Monday's game because of Penny. I look for Billingsley to be able to get to 85 pitches or so covering atleast 5innings. I think think the LAD know how important it is to take this 4 games set with Arizona and they are coming to play this week. I have them winning this series so I will stay betting the games in it. Arizona simply has trouble with the Dodgers, they are 1-5 this yr. Arizona is a good home team though and the Dodgers have had some trouble on the road.


Still doing Yanks/Orioles Under, Jays -105, Brewers -139, A's -119, WSux/DRays U9

Blue Jays -104:

Had something long type up and the browser killed it. Jays are hot, winning 4 in a row but are just 14-19 on the road this yr.

Marcum L3 = 2-0, 1.83era, 19.2ip, 13h, 6bb, 15k, .263obp, 0.97whip
Marcum Away = 3-1, 3.95era, 27ip, 26h, 5bb, 23k, .287obp, 1.13whip
Marcum Career = 0-1, 1g, 5ip, 8h, 4er, 2bb, 2k

Baker L3 = 1-2, 7.63era, 15.1ip, 22h, 4bb, 13k, .380obp, 1.70whip
Baker home = 0-1, 10.38era, 13ip, 22h, 6bb, 11k, .446obp, 2.15whip
Baker this yr = ND, 5.1ip, 5h, 3er, 4bb, 2k
****Baker's home #'s are inflated due to 1 poor start vs. WSux

Important to note that Morneau will be likely be out of action until Thursday. Castillo has a swolen left hand that happened in the 5th inning of yesterdays game, could see him being out as well.

BJ's have been making a killing off of homeruns in their winning streak and Baker has given up 6hr in 32ip, think he gets hit for atleast 1 in this game. The BJ's are 6-2 when Marcum pitches and the Twins are 4-2 when Baker pitches. The series this yr is split 2-2. Marcum start vs. the Twins came last yr, Morneau was 2-3 w/ 2rbi in that game.

Thanx for the write ups...really enjoy reading them. :thumbsup:

I no longer have interest in the Reds since the line was beat down from +140 to +125..

Haren at -119 is very tempting but tempting plays are not what I am after, see Tavarez vs. Weaver.

Right now my 3 favorite sides are Rockies +136, LAD -105, BJ's -106. I still have a strong lean to the Cards/Mets Over 9 but juice is -125. I think Ervin is overpriced but the Royals are a wierd team. They drop the game last night as -285 fav's and now will prob respond by blasting Meche. Still have to look into the Brewer game although the line being bet down .23cents overnight tells me who the sharps like. Can't get involved with the WSux/DRays Under, not with them bullpens, no way. I think it logically make sense for an under w/ the Yanks/Orioles but logic doesn't always work in baseball

silver7 said:

Between you BG, & Jibba, the info & observations you post are priceless. The pics are our responsibility. To do with what we will, win or lose. Thanks again and all the best of it to you. Just an afterthought, that Reds/Phils gm in that park, w/2 of the highest HR & run producing tms, seems to beg OVER! ?

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Thanks for the kind words silver but those two guys are light yrs ahead of me here. I am just here to give you guys some information, the last 2 days I basically kept my opinion out of it and just put the numbers up, today I did a little more of what I thought but I agree, the info is there for you to draw your own conclusions. As far as the Red/Phil game, Reds are a HR team so they might love playing in this park but I have not seen Kendrick pitch 1 game this yr and going by box scores is tough. I do think some balls leave the park 2day but I kind of like what Bailey does on the mound and totals are not my best aspect of baseball.


Low - no problem, ejoy the thoughts

GL ETG. Good info. as always. Really like that Cards/Mets over, as well. But, I'm still a bit on tilt betting on games with Wellemyer pitching after that debacle vs. Meche. That one still pisses me off. GL.

rouxdogg said:

GL ETG. Good info. as always. Really like that Cards/Mets over, as well. But, I'm still a bit on tilt betting on games with Wellemyer pitching after that debacle vs. Meche. That one still pisses me off. GL.

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Trust me, I know. I had the Royals as well...



:nohead:

Like Toronto, Colorado, and LAD myself. I especially like the Bluejays in this spot tonight and I'm trying to figure out why they are +100 at this point.

All I can think of is that Marcum's last 3 games came against NL teams and he's not getting respect vs. AL hitting?

Any input on why the line is even?

Marcum is a rather unknown to most, a reliever converted to starter who has only made 8 starts this yr. He is on the road as well in this matchup vs. a decent Twins team that as we enter July usually just comes out of no where and turns their season around. Only reasons I can think of, not to fond of Baker myself, having watched the ChiSox and the Mets game. Having Morneau, Castillo, and Cirillo out of the lineup could be costly

Like Jays A Lot Also

The lone caveat is Marcum`s tendency to give up the long ball 12 in 30IP. But the Twins are hurtin so may not factor. BOL to all of us.

I Only Have 2 Problems

I`m a moron & I can`t read, other than that I`m fine. Marcum has 64 IP not 30. Sorry

Silver - Thanks for the numbers...Marcum has given up 8hr's as a SP, 5 have come at home and of the 12 on the yr, 8 of those have come at home, I think that has a little to do with it.

gl ettg

Alright for my picks today, I coach a baseball team (15-16)yr old kids, I am still a kid myself somewhat (22) but I won't be around the computer until later so I have to make the picks now.

LAD -105: Alright, reasons are above but to sum it up, I have LAD winning this series. I like the mindframe they came to Arizona with (Moving Penny back a day just for this divisional matchup)...I like the move of Nomar to 3B for Loney who will now play 1B. It makes them more dangerous on offense and more solid on defense as Abreu and Betemit are liabilities on defense. LAD want this series and the DBacks are getting a taste of what it is like when you are in 1st place and teams are gunning for you. Its better to be the hunter than the hunted.

Blue Jays -104: Another PK game here and I think the LU for the Twins could be rather weak tomorrow. BJ's have a lot to be happy about in the last week as they have played great ball. They have now won 4 straight games and today I think they pick up their 5th vs. Baker. I will look for the Twins to stop the bleeding tomorrow with Boof vs. Towers. Morneau and Castillo are two big losses from the offense, both very reliable bats.

Rockies +135: A play on value alone. Yes the Cubs have won 4 games in a row but their streak is not like the Jay's four game win streak. They squeaked out 2 games vs. the White Sux and they imo, are not a team to trust that often especially with that shit they call a bullpen... Lopez, I think is the better pitcher of the two and so with more than capable bats who have been asleep for 2 days now, a team who hasn't lost 5 games in a row this yr (Mondays loss set the season high of 4straight losses), and a little better pitcher, I have to take the plus money here. The Rockies will face Zambrano tomorrow and even though its at home where he has sucked this yr overall, he has had a rebirth and has been pitching a lot better so I would look for them to pick up this game tonight.

austintx05 said:

gl ettg

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Thanks, I didn't mean to blow up on ya, I just didn't take that as a sarcastic remark. The internet and sarcastic comments don't go together well.