On the surface, one would think that Pirates bettors are getting a good deal getting 50 basis points against a struggling pitcher coming off an injury. Digging deeper into the game, I don’t see it that way. Tonight will probably be the healthiest you have seen Willis on the mound in the while. He should also come in fresh, having his start pushed back and only going one inning in his last start. Having consistently dominated the Pirates throughout his career should also give him the added confidence he is in dire need of. The Pirates lineup is slumping, having scored just one run or less in three of their last five games. They also lack the clutch and situational hitting that is a huge asset when going up against Willis, who is prone to allowing a lot of base runners and needs to work himself out of jams. Having been overworked in the Twins series, the Marlins bullpen got a much needed day off yesterday. Malholm has been underachieving for two years now, and is not the ideal pitcher going up against this Marlins lineup, which is unforgiving for a pitcher who is prone to a lot of baserunners. Maholm has not figured out how to get right handed hitters out on a consistent basis, which is a deficiency that could prove troublesome against what might be the most dangerous lineup from the right side against southpaws. He also has shown a lack confidence away from home, and his numbers have suffered because of it. The Pirates bullpen is overrated, depleted, and consistently mismanaged. The Pirates are progressively getting worse in close games and finding ways to lose, something that plagued their season last year. They have lost seven of the nine one run games this month.
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I did not derive a value in the Nats game, as I don’t feel comfortable quantifying both starting pitchers worth. That said, all season, no matter the match up, you could pretty much expect linesmakers to automatically install a “step up” in the Nats line in anticipation of blind public fades. However the recent solid play and ROI has forced the public to temporarily park their “fade money” elsewhere, and you are seeing that inflated step up carry fewer basis points each game. With Carlye on the mound and with the way the Braves have been hitting, one could easily make a case for the Nats getting value at +140, but don’t automatically expect you are getting a “step up” with them.
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Good luck.
