Pinnacle line moves for 6-26

quantumleap · Jun 26, 2007

Last day for monitoring line moves. When I started I said I would do this for 10 days and this is the 10th day. I have been thinking about continuing this tracking until the All-Star Game but if I do I will be brief in my postings.

Thanks everyone for all the comments and suggestions. I may revise the method of tracking at a later time. I currently like to include all the games with line moves so I can see any interesting results that I may want to track later.

Lots of line movement in the games so far. I'll post my picks later this afternoon after things have settled down.

quantumleap · Jun 26, 2007

OK, the lines have settled down some so it's time to pull the trigger on a few. Yesterday we had mostly dogs, today it's mostly faves.

StL +190 over NYM (from +173)
Fla -156 over Pit (from -174)
Oak -115 over Cle (from -129)
Phi -134 over Cin (from -149)
Sea -131 over Bos (from -149)
Milw -133 over Hou (from -159)

May have more later.

GoSteelers248 · Jun 26, 2007

so what are your picks for today quantum??

SonnySixKill · Jun 26, 2007

Seattle dropping -128 now, is this still a play if it continues to drop.

gabbana · Jun 26, 2007

all line dropped except that dog of stl, hmm strange..

soswalter · Jun 26, 2007

STL is a pitching change, so you can scratch that one off the list

quantumleap · Jun 26, 2007

dcspride said:
so what are your picks for today quantum??

They are listed in the post above yours.

quantumleap · Jun 26, 2007

soswalter said:
STL is a pitching change, so you can scratch that one off the list

I have Texas/Detroit as having a pitching change. For STL, I still have Wellemeyer/OL Perez.

soswalter · Jun 26, 2007

Anthony Reyes will start for STL

quantumleap · Jun 26, 2007

Sonny SixKill said:
Seattle dropping -128 now, is this still a play if it continues to drop.

Still a play even though it has moved more than 20 points. In the future I may limit my picks to between 10- and 20-point moves. If I do I will make the call closer to gametime in case the line continues to move.

nikeairx · Jun 26, 2007

so quantum what is your ytd and units won or lost using your line movement method??

quantumleap · Jun 26, 2007

nikeairx said:
so quantum what is your ytd and units won or lost using your line movement method??

I post them at the end of every night. I'll update my record when all games have been decided.

quantumleap · Jun 26, 2007

soswalter said:
Anthony Reyes will start for STL

Where are you getting your info? I have Pinnacle, jimfeist.com and mlb.com all showing the original pitchers starting.

Thanks in advance.

:toast:

soswalter · Jun 26, 2007

quantumleap said:
Where are you getting your info? I have Pinnacle, jimfeist.com and mlb.com all showing the original pitchers starting.

Thanks in advance.

:toast:

Bodog had the line crossed out, so I went to Pinnacle and it said "AN. REYES" in capital letters. Now, the line is back on bodog with Wellemeyer. Pinnacle has fixed this as well. Very odd.

quantumleap · Jun 26, 2007

Adding:

SD +116 over SF (from +106)

Stabler12 · Jun 26, 2007

Gl Ql!

quantumleap · Jun 26, 2007

Stabler12 said:
Gl Ql!

Thanks Stabler12!

A's were down to the last out and got shelled. StL was also down to the last out and got tied up. Hopefully they win now that they are ahead by 2. I could use that +190 to come through.

I saw Stabler play in Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City in the fall of 1979. He threw the most perfect spiral I've ever seen a QB throw. Haven't seen one since that could throw it like he did.

quantumleap · Jun 27, 2007

Another great day going 5-2. Only one of the games had a line move of more than 20 points so the games that had a line move between 10 and 20 points went 4-2. That gives a YTD for that group a record of 23-10. Again, that's not a large enough sample size so no statistical conclusion should be drawn.

I think I will continue with this method and may alter it a little. I will no longer call it the Pinnacle line movement bet. I will no longer be posting the amount of line moves either. I will not be posting the individual records of every day. Today will be the last day for that. I will keep the YTD record.

Here are the records for each individual day:

6/13:
Cinc +153 over LAA (from +132): -1.00
Pit -149 over Tex (from -170): +0.67

1-1, -0.33

6/17:
Oak -136 over StL. (from -164): -1.00
Det -125 over Phi (from -137): +0.80
AZ -129 over Balt (from -143): +0.78

2-1, +0.58

6/19:
Cubs -119 over Tex (from -135): +0.84
Milw -163 over SF (from -175): +0.61
Atl +118 over Bos (from +107): -1.00
Det -140 over Wash (from -150): +0.71
Phi +132 over Clev (from +156): +1.32
Cin +157 over Oak (from +172): +1.57
KC +147 over StL (from +137): 0.00

5-1, +4.05

6/20:
Atl +116 over Bos (from -102): -1.00
NYM -191 over Min (from -212): -1.00
Cle -201 over Phi (from -222): +0.50
Col +145 over NYY (from +132): +1.45
StL +108 over KC (from -106): +1.08
SD -134 over Bal (from -145): -1.00
Cubs -120 over Tex (from -130): -1.00

3-4, -0.97

6/21:
Pit +197 over Sea (from +172): -1.00

0-1, -1.00

6/22:
Atl -135 over Det (from -159): -1.00
NYY -112 over SF (from -124): +0.89
Pit +189 over LAA (from +161): -1.00
AZ -169 over Balt (from -201): -1.00

1-3, -2.11

6/23:
NYM -128 over Oak (from -139): +0.78
KC +149 over Mil (from +131 to +157 to +149): -1.00
AZ -121 over Bal (from -139): +0.83
Atl +150 over Det (from +140 to +156 to +150): -1.00

2-2, -0.39

6/24:
Sea -123 over Cin (from -141): +0.81
Hou +101 over Tex (from -113): +1.01

2-0, +1.82

6/25:
StL +167 over NYM (from +147): -1.00
Tex +210 over Det (from +202 to +197 to +210): +2.10
Cubs +101 over Col (from -108 to -115 to +101): +1.01
SD +103 over SF (from -107): -1.00
Sea +125 over Bos (from +117 to +110 to +125): +1.25
Milw -170 over Hou (from -180): +0.59

4-2, +2.95

StL +190 over NYM (from +173): +1.90
Fla -156 over Pit (from -174): -1.00
Oak -115 over Cle (from -129): -1.00
Phi -134 over Cin (from -149): +0.75
Sea -131 over Bos (from -149): +0.76
Milw -133 over Hou (from -159): +0.75
SD +116 over SF (from +106): +1.16

5-2, +3.32

9-day totals:
27-17, +7.87

theoldschool · Jun 27, 2007

It is woth noting that all of these plays moved 10% from the overnight line. Once a line moves 10 points, it usually continues until the 10% point is reached. It's human nature: followers chase steam until all value is gone, at which point those who like the other side and have been waiting for the steam to peak, fade the steam. My partner was 5-2, +3.57 on the same plays, but he spends 10+ hours a day monitoring and handicapping. That extra few cents adds up over a season. Thanks for doing this and good luck!

quantumleap · Jun 27, 2007

the old school said:
It is woth noting that all of these plays moved 10% from the overnight line. Once a line moves 10 points, it usually continues until the 10% point is reached. It's human nature: followers chase steam until all value is gone, at which point those who like the other side and have been waiting for the steam to peak, fade the steam. My partner was 5-2, +3.57 on the same plays, but he spends 10+ hours a day monitoring and handicapping. That extra few cents adds up over a season. Thanks for doing this and good luck!

Thanks old school for all your comments.

I noticed this too when I was checking the line moves. It would move only up to a certain point. A lot of times the 20-point would be a barrier and the line would not move past that. For those lines that moved more than 20 points usually did so early on.