I valued the Orioles at +128 today, but some regression analytics has increased my margin of safety on them, and I wouldn’t touch them unless I was getting at least +156. So they are slightly undervalued, but don’t carry enough value to warrant a play right now. There is no denying that Gunthrie has quietly been one of the most dominant and un-hittable pitchers in baseball this year. Every one of his starts have been quality ones, and he has shown no signs of slowdown. That said, he is due for some major regression. His BABIP is at such a low level that you have to figure a good part of his success has been a product of luck. His low strike out rate shows his stuff is not terribly overpowering. Although he dominated the Red Sox earlier this year, the quality of his opponents have been lacking. 4 of his nine starts have been against either the Royals, Nats are Padres, three of the more anemic ones in the league. Three others were against decent lineups in the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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lace>Rockies</st1lace>, Blue Jays and Drays, but all three were at home, while all three of those lineups are much more potent in their own backyard. His command and ability to locate his pitches has been off the charts, and if he could continue to do such he will be one of the better pitchers in the AL the rest of the way. But I question his chances of accomplishing such. Tonight be a huge test that he finally might fail. The absence of Tejada is huge for a lineup that is already lacking clutch hitting. The games he will be most missed will be games like tonight, against savvy southpaws.
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I can’t blame anyone for betting the O’s tonight; as there is some value in them (Yankees are almost overvalued on a daily basis). But there is simply not enough value on them for me to bet against a rested Yankees team eager to get things back on track after their failed NL west coast road trip.
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Much like the Orioles, the White Sox are slightly undervalued, but not enough to warrant a play in my opinion. I value them at +118, but wouldn’t bet them unless I can get +144, which is highly unlikely to happen. In early June, Shields was the present Gunthrie, a young solid pitcher pitching over his head. But his solid changeup has not been nearly as dominant in his last two outings, and some serious regression has followed. His command has also taken a nose dive, resulting in an increased fly ball ratio and concerning 7 home runs in his last four starts. This could prove costly in a park that plays really small. What also does not bode well for him is the notion that he was unable to fool the White Sox earlier this year when he was in top form, allowing ten hits and 13 base runners in that game. That said, six of those hits were by hitters not in today’s lineup. The Drays have the better lineup, and the White Sox biggest edge, their bullpen is severely diminished with their current pitching form and Shields ability to work deep into games. Dye’s absence is big in this park.
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The White Sox are really out of favor, and it is no surprise they have some value. But unless there is sharp jump of about 12 cents by first pitch, this is a stay away game for me.
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I did not derive a value in the Phillies game due to the starting pitching. I am starting to get a better feel for Bailey’s abilities, but Kendrick’s abilities at this level is still a relatively unknown for me. Batting, bullpen and home field advantage on a stand alone basis puts the Phillies at -145. But without quantifying both starters, the fundamental match up and intangibles, deciphering value can not be done. That said the latter three variables should put this current market price at an efficiently set price.
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Good luck.
ffice:smarttags" /><st1lace>Rockies</st1lace>, Blue Jays and Drays, but all three were at home, while all three of those lineups are much more potent in their own backyard. His command and ability to locate his pitches has been off the charts, and if he could continue to do such he will be one of the better pitchers in the AL the rest of the way. But I question his chances of accomplishing such. Tonight be a huge test that he finally might fail. The absence of Tejada is huge for a lineup that is already lacking clutch hitting. The games he will be most missed will be games like tonight, against savvy southpaws. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>I can’t blame anyone for betting the O’s tonight; as there is some value in them (Yankees are almost overvalued on a daily basis). But there is simply not enough value on them for me to bet against a rested Yankees team eager to get things back on track after their failed NL west coast road trip.
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> </o>Much like the Orioles, the White Sox are slightly undervalued, but not enough to warrant a play in my opinion. I value them at +118, but wouldn’t bet them unless I can get +144, which is highly unlikely to happen. In early June, Shields was the present Gunthrie, a young solid pitcher pitching over his head. But his solid changeup has not been nearly as dominant in his last two outings, and some serious regression has followed. His command has also taken a nose dive, resulting in an increased fly ball ratio and concerning 7 home runs in his last four starts. This could prove costly in a park that plays really small. What also does not bode well for him is the notion that he was unable to fool the White Sox earlier this year when he was in top form, allowing ten hits and 13 base runners in that game. That said, six of those hits were by hitters not in today’s lineup. The Drays have the better lineup, and the White Sox biggest edge, their bullpen is severely diminished with their current pitching form and Shields ability to work deep into games. Dye’s absence is big in this park.
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> </o>The White Sox are really out of favor, and it is no surprise they have some value. But unless there is sharp jump of about 12 cents by first pitch, this is a stay away game for me.
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> </o>I did not derive a value in the Phillies game due to the starting pitching. I am starting to get a better feel for Bailey’s abilities, but Kendrick’s abilities at this level is still a relatively unknown for me. Batting, bullpen and home field advantage on a stand alone basis puts the Phillies at -145. But without quantifying both starters, the fundamental match up and intangibles, deciphering value can not be done. That said the latter three variables should put this current market price at an efficiently set price.
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> </o>Good luck.
