<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-4.00 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">39</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">41</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+18.66 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">116</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">140</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+6.71 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o>Colorado +1.37 over CHICAGO
Two very decent pitchers hook up here with the total in this one being 10½, which is an absolute indication that the wind will be blowing out at Wrigley tonight. With that in mind we turn out attentions to the fly-out/ground-out ratio of both Ted Lilly and Rodrigo Lopez. With the wind blowing out it only makes sense to favor the ground ball pitcher, which happens to be Lopez. In fact, Lilly has recorded 87 groundouts and 115 fly-outs while Lopez has recorded 80 groundouts and just 44 fly-ball outs, which is a big, big edge to Lopez. It’s also worth noting that the Rockies are 7-1 when Lopez starts while the Cubs have won only six of Lilly’s 15 starts. Defensively the Rockies have made the fewest errors in the league and it’s not close. The Cubs are way over-valued in this one and we trust we’ve found a very live pooch here. Play: Colorado +1.37 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>Los Angeles –1.04 over ARIZONA
The Dodgers are the D-Backs daddy and we don’t see much changing here. L.A. has won five of six over Arizona and they’ve also beaten them 9 out of their last 11 games. Chad Billingsley has not looked a bit out of place and this guy is one of the best young pitchers in the game. He’s already struck out 42 batters in 38 innings and has surrendered just 31 hits. In those 38 frames the opposition has gone yard on him just twice. Billingsley is very likely going to be in the Dodger rotation for a very long time. Meanwhile, Edgar Gonzalez has been shuffled back and forth from the rotation to the pen his whole brief career including this year. He’s made 44 career appearances with 24 of them coming as a starter. This year he’s made seven starts and six relief appearances and he’s been very shaky at Chase Field. In fact, in 30 innings at home Gonzales has given up eight bombs, 34 hits and 22 earned runs for an ERA of 6.16 and when he faced the Dodgers earlier in the year they torched him. With the way the Dodgers have owned this host and with the match-up on the hill favoring them too, we consider this a very cheap lay on the visitor. Play: Los Angeles –1.04 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
<o
></o>Chicago +1.32 over TAMPA BAY
It’s one thing to wager on the Devil Rays as a dog but it’s a completely different thing to put much faith in them as a favorite. The equation here is a rather simple one that goes like this; when the Devil Rays are favored by this much bet against them because they lose far more often then they win. Tampa has lost eight of 12, their bullpen is capable of blowing any lead and they simply cannot be trusted as a favorite. James Shields has come way back down to earth after a blistering start in which he did not lose his first game until June 15. Since then, however, in two starts he’s been tagged for 16 hits and 11 earned runs in just 11 innings of work. He’s also allowed 16 jacks, which his 10 more then his opponent on the mound, Jon Garland. Garland is just 4-5 but his numbers, as always are very respectable. He comes in with an ERA of 3.51 and the league is hitting just .242 off him. The White Sox have definitely underachieved this season, more so then any other team but that’s not going to deter us from taking back a very decent price against a team that can easily be beaten. Play: Chicago +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
<o
></o>Toronto –1½ +1.52 over MINNESOTA
Shawn Marcum has been brilliant, the Blue Jays bullpen has been just as brilliant and now, all of a sudden, the Jays offense has sprung to life making them a very dangerous team indeed. Marcum has allowed just 46 hits in 64 innings and has a very impressive 1.09 WHIP. The league is batting just .200 off him and in his eight starts he’s allowed two or fewer runs in six of them. The Blue Jays have scored 49 runs over their past six games and anything close to that average here cashes this ticket. It should not be that difficult against Scott Baker. Baker is a 26-year-old career minor-leaguer that has never been able to make the leap to the big leagues. In six starts this year he’s made it past the fifth inning just once. Baker has surrendered 32 hits in his last 18 innings and at the Metrodome the opposition has hit an eye-opening .379 off him. This is as big a pitching mismatch as any on the board today and thus, we’ll gladly take our chances on the surging Jays laying the runs with a very nice take-back. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.52 (Risking 2 units).
