MistaFlava's 2007 MLB Record: 45-49 (-19.02 Units)
My record includes all the whacky plays I made this season and all the parlays and just about anything I posted. I am back to my old style of baseball capping and betting it seems to be paying off in some ways. I am going to try and keep things as simple as possible and I pretty already know I can turn my season around and end up in the plus side of things. Alright, lets get down to business and make some cash baby!
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Wednesday, June 27
Houston Astros ML +146 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
I have been fading this team for the last few games but believe me when I say that this is the time to take them. The Stros were leading 4-2 until a nine-run sixth inning pretty much ended the game for them and handed Milwaukee yet another home win. However, I have seen teams either bounce back strong or go down hard off losses like that and I think the Astros are going to come back hard. The reason I am telling you guys to take Houston in this spot is because I really like the situation for Woody Williams. He actually pitched quite well in his one and only start against the Brewers this season, allowing only three runs but not getting any kind of support from his offense. If you're ever gonna bet on Woody Williams, doing it against the Brewers is not a bad idea because he is 12-6 against them in 19 career starts with an ERA of only 3.05 and a WHIP of only 1.17. The knock on Williams has been his pitching on the road this season (he is 1-7 with a 5.80 ERA) but two of his last three on the road have been in homer friendly ballparks (Texas and Colorado) and he actually pitched well in Chicago, Cicinnati and St. Louis (without the run support). Seeing how run support has been the biggest issue for Williams at times this season, I think the guys are going to show up for him today as they have a .296 average over their last 10 games and average 6.2 runs per game in their last 10 versus right handed pitchers. Expect the Houston bats to have a breakout game today and get Woody his second road win of the season.
Now that Milwaukee is 29-13 at home, the lines are starting to inflate for almost all their home games and that is why I don't think they can get the job done at this price line. The Brewers have had to rely on late runs in both games of this series to pull home the wins and today is a great day to fade them to the bank. I say that because once again, if you're going to fade Jeff Suppan you have to do it when he is pitching at home where he is 5-2 but has an ERA of 4.23, a WHIP of 1.48 and opposing hitters are hitting .290 against him. I also want to point out that he has never had success pitching against the Astros in his career, going 2-6 in 10 career starts with an ERA of 4.72, a WHIP of 1.55 and allowing Houston to hit .305 off of him. Suppan allowed 5 runs in five innings in his last home start which was against the Kansas City Royals and had it not been for the 11 runs of support his offense hooked him up with, things would be a bit different. He has not lasted more than five innings in any of his last two home starts and has given up nine runs in 10 innings. The Brewers are still hitting machines but they are not as good at home against right-handed pitchers which is why this is another good fade spot. Milwaukee is batting only .256 against righties in this ballpark this season. As much as I like betting on these guys at home, Suppan is a good fade right now and I think the Brewers get their asses handed to them in this spot.
It's tough to bet on a team like Houston when their bullpen has an 11.08 ERA in their last 10 games. However, Woody Williams has last 6 or more innings in 10 of his 16 starts this season so if the Astros can take the early lead, they'll only have to worry about 1-2 innings of bullpen work. I get the feeling a lot of people are going to be on Milwaukee this afternoon for the simple reason that the Astros suck right now, their bullpen is a disaster and they are 1-11 in their last 12 road games versus a team with a winning record. However, Jeff Suppan has not shown enough consistency at home this season to earn a price tag like this one against a Woody Williams who is bound to have better luck on than he has had on the road this season. I also want to point out that Lazaro Diaz is the home plate umpire for this game today and he is a Milwaukee hater. The Brewers are 1-11 the last 12 games where Diaz has been the home plate umpire. Woody Williams also seems to have a love affaire with Diaz as he is 4-0 lifetime when Diaz is behind home plate. The same can't be said about Jeff Suppan who is 0-5 lifetime when Diaz is behind home plate. Some very interesting stuff right there and Houston is one of my largest wagers of the year.
:toast:
My record includes all the whacky plays I made this season and all the parlays and just about anything I posted. I am back to my old style of baseball capping and betting it seems to be paying off in some ways. I am going to try and keep things as simple as possible and I pretty already know I can turn my season around and end up in the plus side of things. Alright, lets get down to business and make some cash baby!
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Wednesday, June 27
Houston Astros ML +146 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
I have been fading this team for the last few games but believe me when I say that this is the time to take them. The Stros were leading 4-2 until a nine-run sixth inning pretty much ended the game for them and handed Milwaukee yet another home win. However, I have seen teams either bounce back strong or go down hard off losses like that and I think the Astros are going to come back hard. The reason I am telling you guys to take Houston in this spot is because I really like the situation for Woody Williams. He actually pitched quite well in his one and only start against the Brewers this season, allowing only three runs but not getting any kind of support from his offense. If you're ever gonna bet on Woody Williams, doing it against the Brewers is not a bad idea because he is 12-6 against them in 19 career starts with an ERA of only 3.05 and a WHIP of only 1.17. The knock on Williams has been his pitching on the road this season (he is 1-7 with a 5.80 ERA) but two of his last three on the road have been in homer friendly ballparks (Texas and Colorado) and he actually pitched well in Chicago, Cicinnati and St. Louis (without the run support). Seeing how run support has been the biggest issue for Williams at times this season, I think the guys are going to show up for him today as they have a .296 average over their last 10 games and average 6.2 runs per game in their last 10 versus right handed pitchers. Expect the Houston bats to have a breakout game today and get Woody his second road win of the season.
Now that Milwaukee is 29-13 at home, the lines are starting to inflate for almost all their home games and that is why I don't think they can get the job done at this price line. The Brewers have had to rely on late runs in both games of this series to pull home the wins and today is a great day to fade them to the bank. I say that because once again, if you're going to fade Jeff Suppan you have to do it when he is pitching at home where he is 5-2 but has an ERA of 4.23, a WHIP of 1.48 and opposing hitters are hitting .290 against him. I also want to point out that he has never had success pitching against the Astros in his career, going 2-6 in 10 career starts with an ERA of 4.72, a WHIP of 1.55 and allowing Houston to hit .305 off of him. Suppan allowed 5 runs in five innings in his last home start which was against the Kansas City Royals and had it not been for the 11 runs of support his offense hooked him up with, things would be a bit different. He has not lasted more than five innings in any of his last two home starts and has given up nine runs in 10 innings. The Brewers are still hitting machines but they are not as good at home against right-handed pitchers which is why this is another good fade spot. Milwaukee is batting only .256 against righties in this ballpark this season. As much as I like betting on these guys at home, Suppan is a good fade right now and I think the Brewers get their asses handed to them in this spot.
It's tough to bet on a team like Houston when their bullpen has an 11.08 ERA in their last 10 games. However, Woody Williams has last 6 or more innings in 10 of his 16 starts this season so if the Astros can take the early lead, they'll only have to worry about 1-2 innings of bullpen work. I get the feeling a lot of people are going to be on Milwaukee this afternoon for the simple reason that the Astros suck right now, their bullpen is a disaster and they are 1-11 in their last 12 road games versus a team with a winning record. However, Jeff Suppan has not shown enough consistency at home this season to earn a price tag like this one against a Woody Williams who is bound to have better luck on than he has had on the road this season. I also want to point out that Lazaro Diaz is the home plate umpire for this game today and he is a Milwaukee hater. The Brewers are 1-11 the last 12 games where Diaz has been the home plate umpire. Woody Williams also seems to have a love affaire with Diaz as he is 4-0 lifetime when Diaz is behind home plate. The same can't be said about Jeff Suppan who is 0-5 lifetime when Diaz is behind home plate. Some very interesting stuff right there and Houston is one of my largest wagers of the year.
:toast:
k:
