IndianCowboy (IC):
Good day yesterday. Hopefully it continues today.
Once again, there is a process, even to gambling. -
WNBA Notes:
Monarchs -4 (sportsbetting - I would suggest taking the .5 as it is 4.5 in many places, unless you have sportsbetting.com). This is why putting this up the night before is helpful, but I will do that beginning tonight.
Revenge game for the Monarchs for that overtime loss and the research showed the other day that games in L.A. are going over but I think the Monarchs play with some intensity today and the game goes under/monarchs. Both the times the teams have played, the games have gone into the 160's, but the Monarchs defense is just sick right now, just notice 13 point defeat of New York and the holding the Liberty to under 50 points - actually 46. You know what, just assume this is the write-up for my play. I think the Monarchs roll in this game and get their revenge. I would use the same strategy with a better team in the nba having an opportunity at revenge and the Monarchs were nearly up by 20 against the Sparks before they the Sparks came bac, took the game to overtime and it was the 4th quarter that killed the Monarchs in that game getting outscored 9 to 28, which was a 19 point collapse in the 4th quarter. The Monarhcs are 10-4, they beat the Shock at home, and they can be argued as the best team in the leauge with Detroit and Indiana right there. If Seattle can beat the sparks by double-digits and it would take another monumental collapse by the monarchs, I will gladly take the monarchs. This game reminds me of the fever vs. liberty when the fever had revenge and went back on the road to beat them easily as they were the better team. By the way, the Liberty are a great fade/under right now as well. The Sparks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 1-5 ATS in the West while the Monarchs are 5-1 ATS as a small home favorite of 0.5-4.5 points.
WNBA Notes:
Conn vs. Detroit
This is a dangerous game. Sales is still out for Conn and this is why Wash blew them out of the water yesterday and they could get blown out by the Shock today as the Sun have played them in 2 very tight ballgames both time out. However, this team begin to pull it together late in the ballgame vs. the mystics despite losing big, they finally started scoring, which helped the game go over - . Detroit has played 4 straight overs, but I would play the over here, but without Sales and the Detroit D being staunch, no play for me on side/total as I can't bet on the Sun w/out sales and I can't bet on Detroit as this is a huge number.
MLB Notes:
Houston vs. Milwaukee -
Houston and Williams typically don't mesh well. Houston is 6-10 when is on the mound. He has played in 6 of 7 overs. Suppan is not pitching well. Houston needs a break out game as well after getting drilled the last 2 games. Lean: Over.
Coloardo vs. Cubs - Don't mess with the Cubs right now. Glad I stayed away from the under as well as Rodrigo's strong numbers yesterday. Hirsh 10 earned runs last 2 games and Zambrano has been lights out of late givig up 2 earned runs in his last 3 starts (8,9,8 innings). If the Jays can sweep them, then why can't the Cubs? Lean: Cubs Run-Line - no lean on total.
San Diego vs. San Francisco
The Giants have lost 7 in a row with Cain on the mound. Tough to bet on Cain at this spot, although the Giants are finally playing well now and I don't like anything concerned with the Padres besides the under. I think both teams are similar to women's softball in that they have horrendous offenses, actually wait, women's softball actually scores more runs than these teams. Lean: Under.
Pittsburgh vs. Florida
Props to Pitt on beating Dontrelle yesterday 3-2, in another game for the Pirates that went under. Sergio's already beaten Pitt this year once, got rocked in his first return back, got his bearings set against the White Sox and I think the Marlins shut the Pirates down today. Remember Mitre still has a 1.8 ERA. Lean: Marlins Run-Line. J.V. is your typical average 5 inning 3-4 run type pitcher and who trusts the Pirate bullpen?
Cincy vs. Philly
I thought that this whole series might go over when I first saw it. Both teams have hitting and lack pitching. Harang has won 3 in a row and Moyer has given up 2 earned runs in his last 2 starts, and 1 was against the Tigers. I think this game goes under and if I had to choose, I would take the Phillies b/c of their lineup. Either way, after yesterday's show of runs, I lean on the under. Lean: Under.
Cards vs. Mets
The Cards are 1-10 when Reyes is on the mound. That's bad. By the way, amazing as it sounds, the Cards are 6 games out of .500. Reyes has pitched in 3 of 4 overs and Glavine finally won a game in a month in his last start. He also defeated St. Louis easily in his last game. Lean on Mets Run-Line, no lean on the total, I hate the Red Bird bats, unpredicatble as they come, almost tops San Diego in that department.
Washington vs. Atlanta
Give the Nats some credit, they have a bunch of solid young pitchers and Patterson is still injured. The Braves finally put some runs on the board yesterday, but but that game too went under as thought, and I think this does too. Both offenses blow right now, both pitching tandems are solid and has bene all series. Lean: Under as it should be 7.5 I think given the cirumstances.
Dodgers vs. Dbacks
Dbacks come off a tough loss, both teams have studs on the mound. Tough to fade either. Tough to give either team an edge as Lowe has won 3/4 and the Dodger bats are better but the last time Webb faced the Dodgers they won 9-1. The under seems to be the only plausible play here. Small Lean on Under.
KC vs. Angels
Wow, KC is taking it to the Angels. I've enjoyed watching this, only b/c I haven't had any wagers on it I think or else I would have caused harm to my tube. Drosa has struggled of late with 14 runs in the last 2 games to N.L. teams, and Weaver actually lost to the Royals vs. Meche last time out but has won the 2 times prior to that last year. I think the Angels bounce-back, but I cannot lay a run-line on this team as for all we know DRosa pitches a gem today. I just don't have a good feeling about this game as the research clearly indicates there are better options out there today.
Boston vs. Seattle
Mat has given up 1 earned run in his last 2 starts but has struggled against Seattle. Fei has given up 17 earned runs his last 3 starts, 2 out of the 3 have gone over and if I lean anything on this game, like the over as the M's can hit the gyro ball and fastball and the Red Sox have put up some runs (Thanks 9th - )
Yankees vs. Orioles
Tough loss for Petitte last night on the outfield miscommunication. I am staying far away from this game. I think it can go both ways, and if I had to lean I would take the under as I think Bedard has a good game showing up for the Yanks and of course, we know Clemens will show up. Lean on Under.
Oakland vs. Indians
Washington put up 10 hits on Carmona. If you're looking for a top dog today, this is it. Oakland is solid with Dinardo with a 2.74 ERA and frankly, I think game is a tossup that goes either way an the value sides with the A's especially after the brutal walk off loss yesterday after being up late.
Chi Sox vs. Drays
4 earned runs in his last 2 starts, huge value on Buehrle here and the White Sox are actually winning some games. Value is low here as White Sox go for sweep and Andy is not the greatest of pitchers, so nice value here on the Chi Sox and Buehrle. Lean on Chi Sox.
Blue Jays vs. Twins
Sure the Twins won yesterday, but this team is the A.L. version of the Padres. Towers has been brutal 1-5 and Bonser has been starless as well giving up 8 earned runs in his last 2 starts. I think this is a rat race.
MLB Plays:
Texas vs. Detroit Run-Line +102
You know that Kenny Rogers is my favorite pitcher. I am a Braves fan, but I have been a fan of Rogers since the camera man incident. Since that point, he conducted himself well and he is such a competitor. I'm a competitor and love to compete, but this cat, holy shiznit, is probably the best competitor and old school dirty players I've ever come across. I actually was rooting for him against Smoltz just b/c I like Rogers and he has made me a lot of money and given me a lot of wins over the years. Tigers have lost 2 straight. Very frustrated team over the last 2 games against the Rangers and who better to stop that bleeding than the old gambler right? Rogers went 6 innings vs. the Braves and gave up 0 earned runs. I will always follow this guy blindly as he has not let me down he was 8-1 for me last year and that was only b/c the Tigers couldn't score that one game. Millwood gave up 7 runs to the Tigers eariler this year and yes, that means nothing if you followed Kameron Loe vs. the Tigers, but Loe was pitching well coming into that game. Millwood has still given up 42 hits in his last 5 starts which makes him vulnerable. The price is cheap b/c Rogers makes his 2nd start, the Rangers have won 2 in a row and this his first start in the A.L.
Astros/Brewers Over 9.5
This series has been kind to me. So, I can't knock it. As the research shows up above, both pitchers have been struggling and the Astros need to save face here in this series. As mentioned, 6 of 7 of William's game has gone over and the line is at 10 in some spots, but the majority of the lines still show 9.5. The last time he faced the Brew Crew he gave up 3 earned runs and the game went well under. Suppan has given up at least 7 hits and 4 earned runs in his last 4 starts. He has given up 26 runs in his last 5 starts. The over is 10-1 for the Astros in the 3rd game of a series, over is 8-2 for the Astros overall and 6-0 when the total is set as such for Williams. Over is 12-2 in Diaz's 14 games umping behind home plate umping for Houston. Over is 4-1 for Brew Crew in the 3rd game of a series.
That's what I got gents, 3 on the card today, could play more, but I'm satisfied.
take care,
ic
*done