three tonight with analysis

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+0.64 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">38</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">43</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+10.98 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">118</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">142</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+7.35 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

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Washington +2.00 over ATLANTA <o:p></o:p>
No doubt the loss of Christian Guzman has hurt the Nationals but there’s no chance in hell that we’re passing up a 2-1 take-back with Micah Bowie going against John Smoltz and the Braves. Bowie is coming off three wins in a row in which he beat three AL teams in Cleveland, Toronto and Baltimore. Combined against that trio he allowed six runs total. After facing three AL teams Bowie takes a big step down in class by facing an NL team; just ask Mike Maroth. The league is hitting just .220 off Bowie and overall he’s given up just 41 hits in 52 innings. John Smoltz is one of seven pitchers going today over the age of 40, a new major league record. He’s having a very decent year and there’s no denying the man can still pitch. However, the league is still hitting .260 off him and he still has a ton of miles on his itching arm. Smoltz can come up lame at any time and the bottom line is he’s way overpriced in this one. The Braves won 6-2 last night but so what. Fact is, they’ve only scored 11 runs in their last 63 innings and had a stretch very recently in which they scored twice in 50 innings. Big overlay. Play: Washi9ngton +2.00 (Risking 2 units).<o:p></o:p>
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Pittsburgh +1.62 over FLORIDA <o:p></o:p>
The Marlins are in the midst of a horrible stretch and that alone makes them completely unworthy of this big tag. In fact, the Marlins have lost three in a row and 10 of their last 13 games at home. Over their last three games the Marlins scored just seven times and that’s after facing Carlos Silva and Paul Maholm, not exactly the cream of the crop. This is a struggling team at the moment and it’s also worth noting that Sergio Mitre gets very little run support and Florida has won just five of Mitre’s 12 starts. Furthermore, Mitre has surrendered 20 hits and eight earned runs in his last 12.2 innings and one of those two starts came against the anemic offense of the White Sox. John Van Benschoten makes just his third start of the year and he comes in with an 0-2 record and a 4.22 ERA. Van Benschoten has not looked bad at all and in fact, in his last start he held the red-hot bats of the Mariners to just six hits and three runs in 5.2 innings. In his two starts, both against the AL, he limited the opposition to a .225 batting average. He’s been battling the strike zone but he’s a ground ball pitcher and he does not give up the long ball. In 66 minor-league innings he allowed just three bombs and has not allowed a single jack in his two starts at this level. The Pirates are laboring too, however, they did win here last night and even more important then that is they’re not the team laying –1.70 here. Play: Pittsburgh +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
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BALTIMORE +1.24 over NY Yankees <o:p></o:p>
Rocket Roger will make his fourth start of the year and thus far he hasn’t been the second coming of Jesus Christ, although he thinks he is. Clemens comes in with a 5.09 ERA and that’s after facing Pittsburgh, the Mets and Colorado. He’ll get his first taste of an AL team here and it’s also worth noting that he’s been tagged for three homers in 17 innings. Oh yeah, he pitched an inning of relief of Sunday against the Giants and allowed a run. It’s also worth mentioning that the Yanks will face lefthander Eric Bedard and the Yanks are 1-9 this year on the road vs lefties. Bedard has always had tremendous stuff and this year is no different. He’s one of the toughest pitchers to hit in the majors and when he’s on his game it’s lights out for the opposition. Bedard has whiffed 121 batters in 100 frames and has walked just 31. He leads the league in strikeouts and almost always lasts deep into games. There’s perhaps three or four pitchers in all of baseball that should be favored over Bedard in his home park and Roger Clemens isn’t one of them, although he thinks he is. Play: Baltimore +1.24 (Risking 2 units).
 

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