MistaFlava's 2007 MLB Record: 48-50 (-25.74 Units)
My record includes all the whacky plays I made this season and all the parlays and just about anything I posted. I am back to my old style of baseball capping and betting it seems to be paying off in some ways. I am going to try and keep things as simple as possible and I pretty already know I can turn my season around and end up in the plus side of things. Alright, lets get down to business and make some cash baby!
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Thursday, June 28
Florida Marlins -153 (1 Unit)
The Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 18-23 on the road this season, are on the verge of sweeping the Marlins at home? Something has to give here. I am assuming that with Zach Duke on the mound quite a few people are going to be intrigued by the Pirates as a nice afternoon doggie but I would stay away from it. If the Marlins were capable of beating Duke at home his last time out against these guys, they should have an even easier time beating him away from home. Pittsburgh had not been playing well in games leading up to this series but they have been oportunistic and it has paid off. That doesn't change the fact that they are hitting only .236 in their last 10 games or that they have hit only .247 on the road this season versus left handed pitchers. Duke is coming off a decent performance against the Angels but that lineup had never seen him. This Marlins lineup has seen him three times and they have hit a career .321 against Duke handing him a 1.47 WHIP against them. Prior to the Angels game, Duke was terrible in his other road starts losing in Milwaukee twice, St. Louis and leading his team to losses in Washington and Los Angeles (last week). He is 2-3 in eight road starts with an ERA of 5.44 and a WHIP of 1.76...just what this dormant Florida Marlins offense needs to get going.
The Florida Marlins have dropped the cash in four straight games but don't be discouraged. Left-handed pitching is what they have wanted to see more of as today they get their wish. The fish are batting .280 this season versus southpaws and .313 in their last 10 games, losing to Maholm and Santana but beating Danks and De LaRosa. Scott Olsen is the guy you want on the mound this afternoon in an attempt to avoid the three game sweep. He is 2-0 in three career starts versus the Pirates, holding them to 6 ER's and 17 hits in 19 innings of work. He has an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.21 against this team holding them to a career .236 hitting. Three of his last four starts have been quality starts as he beat the Twins and Indians in his last two home starts. Olsen is the kind of guy you only want to back at home as he is 3-2 in this ballpark this season with an ERA of 4.07 but a very nice WHIP of 1.34 with opposing hitters going .254 against him. Although they have had some shaky starting pitching the past week or so, the Marlins bullpen has done an outstanding job with an ERA of 2.84 in their last 10 games. Combined with Olsen's effort and ability to pitch 6-7 innings in most of his home starts, I am banking on pitching winning this game.
The Pirates have surprisingly hit well against good pitchers and bad against bad pitchers. They are 1-4 in their last four games versus a starting pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and they are 2-8 in their last 10 games where Zack Duke is the starting pitcher versus the NL East. They are also 5-21 in Duke's last 26 road starts (stunning stat right there) and 1-9 in Duke's last 10 road starts versus a team with a losing record. On the flip side, the Marlins are an impressive 7-1 in Scott Olsen's last 8 starts versus the NL Central even though he has had problems following up good starts with good starts. I don't think the Marlins are going to let the Pirates get away with another one like they did in the first two...not with Olsen on the mound.
Oakland Athletics +104 (1 Unit)
Believe it or not, I was talking a lot yesterday about the A's having tons of value against Carmona because he had not pitched all that well against them in the past despite holding them to few runs. Well that panned out last night as Oakland trounced the Indians 13-7 as +160 underdogs and gave themselves a chance to even this series out before heading back home. The price seems a bit crappy here but the oddsmakers have done a good job taking note that Oakland, although they have struggled as of late, are still playing .500 ball away from home this season and that is something you have to respect. On the mound for them today is Joe Blanton (love betting on this guy) who once again is the kind of guy you want starting this game for your team. Blanton is 1-2 lifetime versus the Indians but he has pitched well enough to deserve a better record as he has a 4.26 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP against this team, allowing them to hit only .250 against him. On the road this season Blanton is 4-2 in nine starts with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.33 which once again is pretty damn good and consistent enough to win games. He has been outstanding in his last three starts with an ERA of 1.57 and a WHIP of 0.96 and a 2-0 record. I don't have a problem betting on Oakland, backed by good pitching and with an offense capable of enough runs on any given afternoon. The A's are a good team, I think they win this one.
The Cleveland Indians are tough to beat at home, specially against a right handed pitcher on the other side but the Indians have not been the same as of late as they are batting only .271 in their last 10 games and are starting to lose things a bit on the starting pitching side of things. I don't know about you guys but coming off the heels of allowing 13 runs against an Oakland team that had only scored 7 runs in the first two games of this series, I would be pretty damn concerned about having Paul Byrd on the mound for my team. Byrd has been God awful in his last three or four starts allowing 10 or more hits in three of those starts. In his last three starts he has an ERA of 8.62 with a WHIP of 1.85, allowing a whopping 28 hits in 15.2 innings of work. Freak nasty! Making things a bit stickier today is the fact that he is 2-4 lifetime versus Oakland with an ERA of 5.40, a WHIP of 1.47 and has allowed them to hit .318 against him. Jacobs Field has been even unkinder to Byrd. Despite being 4-2 here, Byrd has an ERA of 5.93 at home with a WHIP of 1.56 and opponents have hit .335 against him. OUCH! I don't even know how he got four wins here considering his offense supports him with only 5.6 runs per game this season. With the way Cleveland is hitting I don't think they can get him more than four runs in this one and that's won't be enough to beat Blanton and the A's.
Blanton has not been kind to us bettors as an underdog, dropping his last four with doggie money on them but I think the spot is right. Although Cleveland has been as good a team to bet on coming off a loss this season, this is not a good spot for them and I don't like to bet on teams coming off blowout losses playing an early game the next day. They could very easily come out with the same attitude as they ended with last night. I also have to mention that Cleveland is now 1-4 in Paul Byrd's last five starts versus the American League West. I just don't see him improving on his last five starts and that's a big problem for the Indians.
Arizona Diamondbacks -135 (3 Units)
Alright so all the trade rumors are still flying around about this Dodgers team despite the fact that they have won two of three in this series already. These rumors are not of the bad kind because the boys in blue are looking to juice up their lineup with some big bats while giving away prospects. Well if you ask me...hitting has not really been their problem as of late it has been more a case of the pitching despite the nice performance last night and despite the offense providing only 0 runs in that same game. The Dodgers are only 5-5 in their last 10 games where the pitching staff has an ERA of 5.07 (compared to 3.76 for the year). Right away that gives value on them away in this game. On the mound today is Randy Wolfe (wtf is he still doing around?) who is not the guy you want on the mound in this situation. He is 4-2 in nine career starts against Arizona but has been vulnerable in most of those starts. I am also a big fan of fading him at a good price on the road as he is 2-3 away from home this season with an ERA of 5.03 and a WHIP of 1.59 which should mean the D-Backs are going to have plenty of chances in this one. The bullpen can no longer be trusted to provide run-free relief as they have an ERA of 4.73 in their last 10 games. All you have to remember is Wolfe's 9-1 loss to the D-Backs at home earlier this season.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are trying to even this series up and come out of this with a 2-2 draw which wouldn't be all that bad seeing how they were down 2-0 in the series and looked on their way to losing this thing. For some of you it is probably tough to back a team that is hitting only .233 versus lefties this season but I think they can do some damage against Wolfe like they did against him last time and even if they can't score that many runs...did they really need them last night? Nope. As long as they can get a good outing from their starting pitcher (has not happened much as of late), the bullpen has been holding down the fort and has an ERA of 2.68 in their last 10 games. Randy Johnson makes his return to the mound tonight which is a good thing, not a bad thing. He has not pitched since his gem on June 10 so he hasn't been away for that long. He is an impressive 7-5 in 21 career starts versus the Dodgers with an ERA of 2.71 and a WHIP of 1.06 while holding them to a .220 batting average in his career. I am also a fan of betting on him at home where he is comfortable and where he has been unlucky in some starts. I know he's only 1-2 at home but he has a WHIP of only 1.33 and the Dodgers could have more struggles. Randy should keep his team in this long enough for the pen to takeover and bring this bitch home.
The Dodgers are very dangerous versus lefties winning 11 of their last 13 against them but this aint no regular lefty, this is one guy who has had success beating them in the past. The Dodgers have been somewhat of a nasty trap bet when they are the underdog as they are 1-5 in their last six games as an underdog and 2-8 on the road versus a team with a winning record (the two wins came earlier in this series). They are also a pathetic 1-9 in their last 10 games as a road underdog which clearly indicates that when they are dogged, there is a good reason for it. Arizona, despite problems earlier this season, are 4-0 in their last four games versus left handed starters. They are also 9-2 in their last 11 games as a home favorite and an impressive 24-6 in their last 30 games as a short priced favorite. They have won five straight with Johnson on the mound and despite problems with long layoffs in the past, I think Johnson gets things done with a lot of help from the offense in a high scoring game.
New York Mets -174 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
I just can't get myself to back or respect the St. Louis Cardinals these days and I don't know if that's going to change for the remainder of this season (not before the break anyways). I mean how can we respect a team that has cost bettors -7.98 units on the season (betting 1 unit on all their games) and who are 17-22 on the road? I mean they have slowly started to turn things around as their pitching has improved and their bats are starting to wakeup but I just don't see them coming into this game today off that cheap rain delayed six inning loss last night against this same Mets team. The offense has been quite dormant all year and now that Scott Spiezio (although he has been shit most of the year) is probably out as well tonight, I don't know how these guys are going to score runs. On the mound is reliver turned starter Adam Wainwright who has pitched two career innings against the Mets and allowed 2 walks, 4 ER's and 3 base hits. It was short, not so sweet and the Mets probably remember it. Despite being 2-1 on the road this season, Wainwright has been vulnerable with a 1.53 WHIP away from home which teams like Kansas City and Houston have not been able to expose. The Cardinals just don't have the fire power to even this series out...chalk this up as a loss.
The New York Mets brought home some bacon last night and it was actually nice to have the game go only six innings because of the rain. That means they have now taken two of three in the series and tonight they go for the big series win. I have had problems betting on these guys in the past because they just don't freakin get runs when I bet on them but I have come to realize that this team is not high powered and that they win games the good old fashioned way with some rugged baseball tactics. I really like backing El Duque in this spot as he is coming off a near perfect start against an Oakland team that is very much like these St. Louis Cardinals. Hernandez has been lights out at home in recent starts allowing only 2 ER's in his last four home starts and that's a full 27 innings of work allowing only those two runs. That means he shutout the Colorado Rockies, the Oakland Atheltics and the Philadelphia Phillies while allowing the two runs against the Giants but still grabbing the win. Hernandez is 1-0 in his only career start versus the Cards, holding them to 1 ER and 5 hits over seven innings of work, something I expect to see again from one of the best home pitchers in baseball. The offense may not get him a lot of runs, but El Duque always gets the job done.
The Cardinals have actually been winning road games when Wainwright is the starter but the Mets are a different kind of team that doesn't score much but that can strike fast and make you think the game is out of reach even though it's a small lead. However, it has been five games since they have beat a right-handed starter and tonight they get to face one of the toughest guys in the National League without some of their fire power from last year's World Series team. The Mets have done nothing but roll when El Duque is on the mound and with a series win or draw on the line tonight, I don't doubt he comes out and lets us see some of his best stuff to assure a win for his team. The Cardinals just have too many issues right now and the Big Apple is not a place to solve them.
:toast:
My record includes all the whacky plays I made this season and all the parlays and just about anything I posted. I am back to my old style of baseball capping and betting it seems to be paying off in some ways. I am going to try and keep things as simple as possible and I pretty already know I can turn my season around and end up in the plus side of things. Alright, lets get down to business and make some cash baby!
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Thursday, June 28
Florida Marlins -153 (1 Unit)
The Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 18-23 on the road this season, are on the verge of sweeping the Marlins at home? Something has to give here. I am assuming that with Zach Duke on the mound quite a few people are going to be intrigued by the Pirates as a nice afternoon doggie but I would stay away from it. If the Marlins were capable of beating Duke at home his last time out against these guys, they should have an even easier time beating him away from home. Pittsburgh had not been playing well in games leading up to this series but they have been oportunistic and it has paid off. That doesn't change the fact that they are hitting only .236 in their last 10 games or that they have hit only .247 on the road this season versus left handed pitchers. Duke is coming off a decent performance against the Angels but that lineup had never seen him. This Marlins lineup has seen him three times and they have hit a career .321 against Duke handing him a 1.47 WHIP against them. Prior to the Angels game, Duke was terrible in his other road starts losing in Milwaukee twice, St. Louis and leading his team to losses in Washington and Los Angeles (last week). He is 2-3 in eight road starts with an ERA of 5.44 and a WHIP of 1.76...just what this dormant Florida Marlins offense needs to get going.
The Florida Marlins have dropped the cash in four straight games but don't be discouraged. Left-handed pitching is what they have wanted to see more of as today they get their wish. The fish are batting .280 this season versus southpaws and .313 in their last 10 games, losing to Maholm and Santana but beating Danks and De LaRosa. Scott Olsen is the guy you want on the mound this afternoon in an attempt to avoid the three game sweep. He is 2-0 in three career starts versus the Pirates, holding them to 6 ER's and 17 hits in 19 innings of work. He has an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.21 against this team holding them to a career .236 hitting. Three of his last four starts have been quality starts as he beat the Twins and Indians in his last two home starts. Olsen is the kind of guy you only want to back at home as he is 3-2 in this ballpark this season with an ERA of 4.07 but a very nice WHIP of 1.34 with opposing hitters going .254 against him. Although they have had some shaky starting pitching the past week or so, the Marlins bullpen has done an outstanding job with an ERA of 2.84 in their last 10 games. Combined with Olsen's effort and ability to pitch 6-7 innings in most of his home starts, I am banking on pitching winning this game.
The Pirates have surprisingly hit well against good pitchers and bad against bad pitchers. They are 1-4 in their last four games versus a starting pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and they are 2-8 in their last 10 games where Zack Duke is the starting pitcher versus the NL East. They are also 5-21 in Duke's last 26 road starts (stunning stat right there) and 1-9 in Duke's last 10 road starts versus a team with a losing record. On the flip side, the Marlins are an impressive 7-1 in Scott Olsen's last 8 starts versus the NL Central even though he has had problems following up good starts with good starts. I don't think the Marlins are going to let the Pirates get away with another one like they did in the first two...not with Olsen on the mound.
Oakland Athletics +104 (1 Unit)
Believe it or not, I was talking a lot yesterday about the A's having tons of value against Carmona because he had not pitched all that well against them in the past despite holding them to few runs. Well that panned out last night as Oakland trounced the Indians 13-7 as +160 underdogs and gave themselves a chance to even this series out before heading back home. The price seems a bit crappy here but the oddsmakers have done a good job taking note that Oakland, although they have struggled as of late, are still playing .500 ball away from home this season and that is something you have to respect. On the mound for them today is Joe Blanton (love betting on this guy) who once again is the kind of guy you want starting this game for your team. Blanton is 1-2 lifetime versus the Indians but he has pitched well enough to deserve a better record as he has a 4.26 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP against this team, allowing them to hit only .250 against him. On the road this season Blanton is 4-2 in nine starts with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.33 which once again is pretty damn good and consistent enough to win games. He has been outstanding in his last three starts with an ERA of 1.57 and a WHIP of 0.96 and a 2-0 record. I don't have a problem betting on Oakland, backed by good pitching and with an offense capable of enough runs on any given afternoon. The A's are a good team, I think they win this one.
The Cleveland Indians are tough to beat at home, specially against a right handed pitcher on the other side but the Indians have not been the same as of late as they are batting only .271 in their last 10 games and are starting to lose things a bit on the starting pitching side of things. I don't know about you guys but coming off the heels of allowing 13 runs against an Oakland team that had only scored 7 runs in the first two games of this series, I would be pretty damn concerned about having Paul Byrd on the mound for my team. Byrd has been God awful in his last three or four starts allowing 10 or more hits in three of those starts. In his last three starts he has an ERA of 8.62 with a WHIP of 1.85, allowing a whopping 28 hits in 15.2 innings of work. Freak nasty! Making things a bit stickier today is the fact that he is 2-4 lifetime versus Oakland with an ERA of 5.40, a WHIP of 1.47 and has allowed them to hit .318 against him. Jacobs Field has been even unkinder to Byrd. Despite being 4-2 here, Byrd has an ERA of 5.93 at home with a WHIP of 1.56 and opponents have hit .335 against him. OUCH! I don't even know how he got four wins here considering his offense supports him with only 5.6 runs per game this season. With the way Cleveland is hitting I don't think they can get him more than four runs in this one and that's won't be enough to beat Blanton and the A's.
Blanton has not been kind to us bettors as an underdog, dropping his last four with doggie money on them but I think the spot is right. Although Cleveland has been as good a team to bet on coming off a loss this season, this is not a good spot for them and I don't like to bet on teams coming off blowout losses playing an early game the next day. They could very easily come out with the same attitude as they ended with last night. I also have to mention that Cleveland is now 1-4 in Paul Byrd's last five starts versus the American League West. I just don't see him improving on his last five starts and that's a big problem for the Indians.
Arizona Diamondbacks -135 (3 Units)
Alright so all the trade rumors are still flying around about this Dodgers team despite the fact that they have won two of three in this series already. These rumors are not of the bad kind because the boys in blue are looking to juice up their lineup with some big bats while giving away prospects. Well if you ask me...hitting has not really been their problem as of late it has been more a case of the pitching despite the nice performance last night and despite the offense providing only 0 runs in that same game. The Dodgers are only 5-5 in their last 10 games where the pitching staff has an ERA of 5.07 (compared to 3.76 for the year). Right away that gives value on them away in this game. On the mound today is Randy Wolfe (wtf is he still doing around?) who is not the guy you want on the mound in this situation. He is 4-2 in nine career starts against Arizona but has been vulnerable in most of those starts. I am also a big fan of fading him at a good price on the road as he is 2-3 away from home this season with an ERA of 5.03 and a WHIP of 1.59 which should mean the D-Backs are going to have plenty of chances in this one. The bullpen can no longer be trusted to provide run-free relief as they have an ERA of 4.73 in their last 10 games. All you have to remember is Wolfe's 9-1 loss to the D-Backs at home earlier this season.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are trying to even this series up and come out of this with a 2-2 draw which wouldn't be all that bad seeing how they were down 2-0 in the series and looked on their way to losing this thing. For some of you it is probably tough to back a team that is hitting only .233 versus lefties this season but I think they can do some damage against Wolfe like they did against him last time and even if they can't score that many runs...did they really need them last night? Nope. As long as they can get a good outing from their starting pitcher (has not happened much as of late), the bullpen has been holding down the fort and has an ERA of 2.68 in their last 10 games. Randy Johnson makes his return to the mound tonight which is a good thing, not a bad thing. He has not pitched since his gem on June 10 so he hasn't been away for that long. He is an impressive 7-5 in 21 career starts versus the Dodgers with an ERA of 2.71 and a WHIP of 1.06 while holding them to a .220 batting average in his career. I am also a fan of betting on him at home where he is comfortable and where he has been unlucky in some starts. I know he's only 1-2 at home but he has a WHIP of only 1.33 and the Dodgers could have more struggles. Randy should keep his team in this long enough for the pen to takeover and bring this bitch home.
The Dodgers are very dangerous versus lefties winning 11 of their last 13 against them but this aint no regular lefty, this is one guy who has had success beating them in the past. The Dodgers have been somewhat of a nasty trap bet when they are the underdog as they are 1-5 in their last six games as an underdog and 2-8 on the road versus a team with a winning record (the two wins came earlier in this series). They are also a pathetic 1-9 in their last 10 games as a road underdog which clearly indicates that when they are dogged, there is a good reason for it. Arizona, despite problems earlier this season, are 4-0 in their last four games versus left handed starters. They are also 9-2 in their last 11 games as a home favorite and an impressive 24-6 in their last 30 games as a short priced favorite. They have won five straight with Johnson on the mound and despite problems with long layoffs in the past, I think Johnson gets things done with a lot of help from the offense in a high scoring game.
New York Mets -174 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
I just can't get myself to back or respect the St. Louis Cardinals these days and I don't know if that's going to change for the remainder of this season (not before the break anyways). I mean how can we respect a team that has cost bettors -7.98 units on the season (betting 1 unit on all their games) and who are 17-22 on the road? I mean they have slowly started to turn things around as their pitching has improved and their bats are starting to wakeup but I just don't see them coming into this game today off that cheap rain delayed six inning loss last night against this same Mets team. The offense has been quite dormant all year and now that Scott Spiezio (although he has been shit most of the year) is probably out as well tonight, I don't know how these guys are going to score runs. On the mound is reliver turned starter Adam Wainwright who has pitched two career innings against the Mets and allowed 2 walks, 4 ER's and 3 base hits. It was short, not so sweet and the Mets probably remember it. Despite being 2-1 on the road this season, Wainwright has been vulnerable with a 1.53 WHIP away from home which teams like Kansas City and Houston have not been able to expose. The Cardinals just don't have the fire power to even this series out...chalk this up as a loss.
The New York Mets brought home some bacon last night and it was actually nice to have the game go only six innings because of the rain. That means they have now taken two of three in the series and tonight they go for the big series win. I have had problems betting on these guys in the past because they just don't freakin get runs when I bet on them but I have come to realize that this team is not high powered and that they win games the good old fashioned way with some rugged baseball tactics. I really like backing El Duque in this spot as he is coming off a near perfect start against an Oakland team that is very much like these St. Louis Cardinals. Hernandez has been lights out at home in recent starts allowing only 2 ER's in his last four home starts and that's a full 27 innings of work allowing only those two runs. That means he shutout the Colorado Rockies, the Oakland Atheltics and the Philadelphia Phillies while allowing the two runs against the Giants but still grabbing the win. Hernandez is 1-0 in his only career start versus the Cards, holding them to 1 ER and 5 hits over seven innings of work, something I expect to see again from one of the best home pitchers in baseball. The offense may not get him a lot of runs, but El Duque always gets the job done.
The Cardinals have actually been winning road games when Wainwright is the starter but the Mets are a different kind of team that doesn't score much but that can strike fast and make you think the game is out of reach even though it's a small lead. However, it has been five games since they have beat a right-handed starter and tonight they get to face one of the toughest guys in the National League without some of their fire power from last year's World Series team. The Mets have done nothing but roll when El Duque is on the mound and with a series win or draw on the line tonight, I don't doubt he comes out and lets us see some of his best stuff to assure a win for his team. The Cardinals just have too many issues right now and the Big Apple is not a place to solve them.
:toast:
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