Favorites: 156-106 for +5.61 units.
Underdogs: 63-71 for +11.82 units.
Total: 219-177 for 17.43.
Totals: 5-2 for 3.33 units.
________________________________________________________
I think I have my record completely updated. Will check it over one more time to make sure I didn't miss a day, as I thought I was below 15 units for my total. I think I may have subconsciously been including my run lines in that record though, and those have been horrendous for me lately. Anyway, I'm trying something new for a few days and will see how it goes. As I've previously mentioned, I had taken out a withdrawal a month or two back to make a down payment on the wife's new car. With my bankroll diminished, I think I started playing not to lose, as opposed to playing to win. I went too heavy on favorites, thinking that would give me a good shot to get my bankroll back up to where I felt comfortable with it. Well that was a bad decision which led to a lot of poor bets on my part. I'm going to go back to focusing on value rather than hoping that big favorites can give me a boost out of my slump. This will likely involve more dogs and small favorites, and I may experiment a bit with +1.5 run lines. That's not to say, however, that I won't be on favorites now and then. And just to be clear, my posted record above may not accurately predict how my new style will turn out, but I feel like I should post it anyways.
Oh, and one last thing. These are not official plays yet. As I'm playing mostly dogs, I will generally want to wait until later in the day to make my plays official. But due to my schedule, it's often easier to do and post my writeups earlier in the day. I will make every effort to be as clear as possible in posting what line I actually took and when I took it. So here goes. All plays will be from Matchbook. I've only capped the NL side so far today, and these are the games that I see potential value in.
But one last time . . . these are not yet official plays! I am posting my writeups for my own convenience and will likely play each of these as the day goes on. I will make very clear when I post them as official plays.
Pirates +152: I imagine many of those looking to play today's afternoon card will see the Marlins as a solid play. After all, can they really get swept at home by the lowly Pirates? With Zack Duke on the mound? Well, the fact is that Pittsburgh has outplayed the Marlins the last two days, and there's not much in today's matchup to tell me that it can't happen again. It seems to me that the public's perception of these two teams is that the Marlins are the clearly better team. But their performances this year certainly haven't shown it. Florida comes into the game sporting only 36 wins on the year, while Pittsburgh is close behind with 33. The Pirates have played better ball on the road this year while the Marlins have been terrible at home (15-23). And while neither team is playing great ball right now, the Pirates have at least shown a little life over the past couple days. So I can't see the Fish getting a number like this.
As for the pitching matchup, Olsen has slightly better numbers, but I can't help but think that Duke is the better pitcher. Eventually I think that will become a bit more clear. I wanted +150 and it's already over that right now. I'm just waiting to see how high it will get before game time.
Reds +146: Adam Eaton does not deserve this line IMO. The Phillies are a mediocre team who are not playing particularly well right now. They don't play much better at home than they do on the road. And I think they'll have a touch challenge in Matt Belisle tonight. Belisle is a guy I was fading pretty regularly after the Reds won 4 of his first 5 starts. I thought he'd start to fade as starting wore on him, but I think it may be time to stop fading this kid. Especially against mediocre teams and below average pitchers like Adam Eaton.
Eaton is a respectable 7-5 this year, but his ratios are poor, he walks too many batters, and he is prone to giving up the long ball. At home this year he's sporting a 5.52 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a .284 BAA, to go along with only 29 Ks against 26 BBs. On the other hand, Belisle has been solid on the road this year, putting up a 4-1 record with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP to go along with 22 Ks against only 9 BBs. So I can't help but like his chances if I can get around my target of +155.
Dodgers +133: Randy Johnson is not shy in admitting that his back is still giving him problems. With all the talk of pitching through discomfort and going as long as he can, I just can't see the D-Backs' chances as much more than a coin flip in this one. Randy Wolf hasn't been good lately, but he's not even close to the category of blind fades, even on the road where he's struggled so far this year. Randy will be limited to about 85 pitches, and I don't think Arizona's bullpen is not the type that makes a team feel great about a late inning lead. Overall, neither team is playing all that great right now, and I'm glad to take +133 on the Dodgers in this spot against a team they've played well this year. I'm going to wait and see if I can sneak a few extra cents out of this line. If it drops enough, however, I may consider making LAD a no play.
Mets/Cardinals under 8.5, -101: Hernandez has been great at home this year, aside from one bad performance against what has turned out to be a very solid Washington offense. Since then he's had 4 starts at home, in which he's given up 15 hits and 2 runs in 27 innings. Each of those starts has gone under the total. For the Cards, Adam Wainwright will take the hill. Wainwright is finally living up to expectations this year, having put up a 2.91 ERA over his last 7 starts. And in a series that has seen only 13 runs total in 3 games, I like these two solid starters to stay under 8.5. Since I don't see this one getting any better for me, I'll make it official shortly.
Cardinals +1.5, -129: This is based on the same reasoning as the under, to go along with the fact that this has been a fairly competitive series. I see it ending the same way it started, with maybe a 2-1 or 3-2 game. I think I'll be able to do slightly better with this one, so I'll wait a bit on this play.
Underdogs: 63-71 for +11.82 units.
Total: 219-177 for 17.43.
Totals: 5-2 for 3.33 units.
________________________________________________________
I think I have my record completely updated. Will check it over one more time to make sure I didn't miss a day, as I thought I was below 15 units for my total. I think I may have subconsciously been including my run lines in that record though, and those have been horrendous for me lately. Anyway, I'm trying something new for a few days and will see how it goes. As I've previously mentioned, I had taken out a withdrawal a month or two back to make a down payment on the wife's new car. With my bankroll diminished, I think I started playing not to lose, as opposed to playing to win. I went too heavy on favorites, thinking that would give me a good shot to get my bankroll back up to where I felt comfortable with it. Well that was a bad decision which led to a lot of poor bets on my part. I'm going to go back to focusing on value rather than hoping that big favorites can give me a boost out of my slump. This will likely involve more dogs and small favorites, and I may experiment a bit with +1.5 run lines. That's not to say, however, that I won't be on favorites now and then. And just to be clear, my posted record above may not accurately predict how my new style will turn out, but I feel like I should post it anyways.
Oh, and one last thing. These are not official plays yet. As I'm playing mostly dogs, I will generally want to wait until later in the day to make my plays official. But due to my schedule, it's often easier to do and post my writeups earlier in the day. I will make every effort to be as clear as possible in posting what line I actually took and when I took it. So here goes. All plays will be from Matchbook. I've only capped the NL side so far today, and these are the games that I see potential value in.
But one last time . . . these are not yet official plays! I am posting my writeups for my own convenience and will likely play each of these as the day goes on. I will make very clear when I post them as official plays.
Pirates +152: I imagine many of those looking to play today's afternoon card will see the Marlins as a solid play. After all, can they really get swept at home by the lowly Pirates? With Zack Duke on the mound? Well, the fact is that Pittsburgh has outplayed the Marlins the last two days, and there's not much in today's matchup to tell me that it can't happen again. It seems to me that the public's perception of these two teams is that the Marlins are the clearly better team. But their performances this year certainly haven't shown it. Florida comes into the game sporting only 36 wins on the year, while Pittsburgh is close behind with 33. The Pirates have played better ball on the road this year while the Marlins have been terrible at home (15-23). And while neither team is playing great ball right now, the Pirates have at least shown a little life over the past couple days. So I can't see the Fish getting a number like this.
As for the pitching matchup, Olsen has slightly better numbers, but I can't help but think that Duke is the better pitcher. Eventually I think that will become a bit more clear. I wanted +150 and it's already over that right now. I'm just waiting to see how high it will get before game time.
Reds +146: Adam Eaton does not deserve this line IMO. The Phillies are a mediocre team who are not playing particularly well right now. They don't play much better at home than they do on the road. And I think they'll have a touch challenge in Matt Belisle tonight. Belisle is a guy I was fading pretty regularly after the Reds won 4 of his first 5 starts. I thought he'd start to fade as starting wore on him, but I think it may be time to stop fading this kid. Especially against mediocre teams and below average pitchers like Adam Eaton.
Eaton is a respectable 7-5 this year, but his ratios are poor, he walks too many batters, and he is prone to giving up the long ball. At home this year he's sporting a 5.52 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a .284 BAA, to go along with only 29 Ks against 26 BBs. On the other hand, Belisle has been solid on the road this year, putting up a 4-1 record with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP to go along with 22 Ks against only 9 BBs. So I can't help but like his chances if I can get around my target of +155.
Dodgers +133: Randy Johnson is not shy in admitting that his back is still giving him problems. With all the talk of pitching through discomfort and going as long as he can, I just can't see the D-Backs' chances as much more than a coin flip in this one. Randy Wolf hasn't been good lately, but he's not even close to the category of blind fades, even on the road where he's struggled so far this year. Randy will be limited to about 85 pitches, and I don't think Arizona's bullpen is not the type that makes a team feel great about a late inning lead. Overall, neither team is playing all that great right now, and I'm glad to take +133 on the Dodgers in this spot against a team they've played well this year. I'm going to wait and see if I can sneak a few extra cents out of this line. If it drops enough, however, I may consider making LAD a no play.
Mets/Cardinals under 8.5, -101: Hernandez has been great at home this year, aside from one bad performance against what has turned out to be a very solid Washington offense. Since then he's had 4 starts at home, in which he's given up 15 hits and 2 runs in 27 innings. Each of those starts has gone under the total. For the Cards, Adam Wainwright will take the hill. Wainwright is finally living up to expectations this year, having put up a 2.91 ERA over his last 7 starts. And in a series that has seen only 13 runs total in 3 games, I like these two solid starters to stay under 8.5. Since I don't see this one getting any better for me, I'll make it official shortly.
Cardinals +1.5, -129: This is based on the same reasoning as the under, to go along with the fact that this has been a fairly competitive series. I see it ending the same way it started, with maybe a 2-1 or 3-2 game. I think I'll be able to do slightly better with this one, so I'll wait a bit on this play.
