IndianCowboy (IC):
Record: pending Monarchs game and tigers game from yesterday, so is a possible winning tuesday after both results are in.
Total Plays: (3 today and 1 from yesterday )
I think sometimes we talk about wagers, but we fail to discuss the thought process that goes into making plays. In fact, I think this is just as important as any topic. We all go through the thought process of making plays. I want to give you insight into mine yesterday. I post the Cubs Run-Line and Padres Under in particular along with a bunch of other plays including the yanks under, oak town, chi sox to just name a few yesterday and note them as great plays, yet, I still ride with 3 plays instead of 5. Granted, my winning day still depends on the tigers run-line and if the monarchs win from tuesday. It shows that when you do 3 plays, there are plenty of variables. However, capping to me is an art. Never forget that, capping is an art. It takes a feel sometimes and it takes tweaking, learning and adjusting and I've been capping since 16 for 7 years and I still continue to tweak and tha tis why our hall of fame systems are so important to contribute for following seasons. This is why I think research and notes are an art to as it leads to the picks. Just thought I would note that. I say that to say that I the limits to the number of my plays will be from 1-5 in which 3 will be the goal, but not afraid to make 5 at the max. This is what I will roll with.
WNBA Play:
Storm/Comets Under 158.5 (Diamond)
Seattle has beaten the Comets twice this season the total going to 155 and 151. I assume that the total is higher given Seattle's recent home scoring and that the underdog and the over principle. However, when games occur in Houston, they go under. I was on the under when San Antonio visited Houston, and I'm on the under again here. The line opened up at 158.5 and is down to 158 in about half the places. I am writing this at 9:30pm eastern, I want you to visit covers tomorrow and you will find it interesting that the opening that they give could be different. Just watch this over the next fwe days. It completely misleads the public. I think Seattle wins this game as well, but Houston has been great at home and they have covered their last 4 straight and when they cover ballgames, it goes under. Houston has played under in 5 of 7 games and the only 2 games they have gone over was b/c of Washington and Phoenix, 2 run and gun teams as Washington is the poor man's Phoenix Mercury. I think it's a good spot to take the under as Seattle will not score 94 as they did with Chicago who does not play great defense as Houston does and Houston will run a more half-court offense. I think the line is inflated here a bit. I have this game at 75-72 or about 149, about 9 points over what the total should be. The under is 4-0-1 in Storm last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5 and the under is 8-2 in Comets last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
MLB Research:
Detroit vs. Texas - Nothing has changed, same write-up and play as yesterday.
Pittsburgh vs. Florida - Pirates are on top right now 5-4 in the 8th and it looks like they could pick up game 2 of this series. Duke gave up 2 runs to Florida his last time out and pitched well against the Angels, but I think he got a bit lucky at the end result as the Angels get a lot of hits, but sometimes don't score as many runs, see yesterday's game against KC. Last time these 2 teams played it was 4-3 and Florida. No lean for me but I suggest that if the Pirates hold on for the win, it might be worth a shot at Florida to avoid the sweep. But, no lean here.
Cincy vs. Philadelphia
The game from yesterday went well over and finally the offense has come in this series as was thought. Belisle has lost his last 4 straight but did pitch well against oakland in his last start prior to the last 3 going over. Eaton is unpredictable as he got rocked by the Cardinals but pitched decent against the tigers. Lean on over but no play.
Cards vs. Mets
Wainwright is a decent pitcher and faces El Duke. In much the same respect, this is the same game as yesterday with respect to a solid met pitcher facing an average cards pitcher and hence a 2:1 favorite. Hernandez has given up 4 games of 0 earned runs in his last 7 starts. However, it is all or nothing with el duke, and the cards are a feisy team. I don't hav ea good feeling about this game. No lean, laying off.
Rockies vs. Astros
Rockies start a series with the Astros. Rockies have been swept in back to back series. 5 of 6 of those games went over. Houston comes off getting swept by the Astros. One of these teams will finally pick up a win today. Cook has given up 12 earned runs and 19 hits in his last 2 starts but both were to A.L. teams, but then again, he gave up 5 er to the astros his last time out. Oswalt has been questionable of late, but is 5-1 with a 2.20 era at home. I'll make excuses for his previous starts as 3 were a.l. teams and one start was at coors. I think the Astros are due for a win here with their ace, the run-line seems good, just a lean right now though.
Yankees vs. Orioles
Do the Yanks get swept in this series? The way it is going, quite possibly. The Yanks have lost 7 of their last 8 if the O's hang on to win which it looks like they will tonight but when Wang typically pitches, he gives them a good boost. He is 5-1 in his last 7 starts while losing to San Fran was a bit of a surprise. Cabrera is 5-1-1 with overs of late and he is no stranger to the yanks and in general cabrera gives up 4 runs every 6 innings. But Cabrera had a better ERA against the Yanks than Wang did with the Orioles last year. I don't like any total or side here. No lean.
White Sox vs. Devil rays
Looks like the White Sox are going to hang on against the Devil rays (up 5-3 right now in the top 9th). White Sox have lost 4 in a row when Javier is on the mound and are 1-6 when he is on the mound over the last 7, but that's not his fault as they simply are horrible over the last 30 games or so. Vasquez pitched a gem in his last outing against the cubs but the pale hoses still lost. But, they have won 3 in a row (granted they hold on tonight). Drays hope to avoid the 4 game sweep though and they have won the last 4 kaz has pitched and the last time these 2 teams hooked up, the drays won 11-5. Drays to avoid the sweep and past history, lean on the drays.
Blue Jays vs. Twins
This series is such a toss up. They change leads all the time, twins have pitching but no offense and the opposite is true for the blue jays. Burnett has pitched well but the jays have lost 4 in a row when he has started. Silva beat toronto earlier this season and looks like he has turned the corner, but I honestly do not see value here as the line indicates what this game is - a tossup for the most part.
MLB Plays:
Texas vs. Detroit Run-Line +101 (From Yesterday)
You know that Kenny Rogers is my favorite pitcher. I am a Braves fan, but I have been a fan of Rogers since the camera man incident. Since that point, he conducted himself well and he is such a competitor. I'm a competitor and love to compete, but this cat, holy shiznit, is probably the best competitor and old school dirty players I've ever come across. I actually was rooting for him against Smoltz just b/c I like Rogers and he has made me a lot of money and given me a lot of wins over the years. Tigers have lost 2 straight. Very frustrated team over the last 2 games against the Rangers and who better to stop that bleeding than the old gambler right? Rogers went 6 innings vs. the Braves and gave up 0 earned runs. I will always follow this guy blindly as he has not let me down he was 8-1 for me last year and that was only b/c the Tigers couldn't score that one game. Millwood gave up 7 runs to the Tigers eariler this year and yes, that means nothing if you followed Kameron Loe vs. the Tigers, but Loe was pitching well coming into that game. Millwood has still given up 42 hits in his last 5 starts which makes him vulnerable. The price is cheap b/c Rogers makes his 2nd start, the Rangers have won 2 in a row and this his first start in the A.L.
Dbacks - 136
I hope the Dbacks lost tonight to place more value on this game as they will avoid the sweep. Game hasn't been played yet as I write this. Wolf has lost his last 3 of 4 and has given up at least 4 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Heck, even San Diego reeled off 5 runs against him and we know how bad they can't score. The Dbacks have won 5 straight ballgames in which Johnson has pitched. Amazing he leaves new york for the NL and he's cy young quality again of late giving up 5 earned runs in his last 5 starts. Arizona also scored 6 runs on Wolf the last time out as well this year while Johnson hasn't faced them this year. Also, Wolf has over a 9 ERA in his last 3 starts and Johnson has a 1.5 ERA in his last 3 starts. I think the run-line is a solid price at +150 or better frankly, but why lay that when you can get -136 as a standard price. This will be a play. Dodgers are 1-8 in their last 9 as road dogs, the dbacks are 6-0 as favorites by this margin at home, 8-2 as home favs, 5-0 in johnson's last 5 and 5-1 in johnson's last 5 with Demuth behind the plate.
A's +113
Another game that goes over involving the Indians. I won't take a total here as to me it is either the A's or no play. Blanton has given up 5 earned runs in his last 5 starts similar to Randy Johnson and Blanton actually goes deeper into games such as 8 innings on average over his last 5 where as Johnson usually goes 6. Byrd gives up a lot of hits such as 65 in his last 7 starts - that's over 9 a game on average. Blanton even defeated Sabathia his last time out against the Indians in a 8-2 win. I think the A's are back after their offensive explosion recently. After not scoring at all in the Mets series, they put up 5 the other day and 11 runs yesterday and byrd as we know is no ace and blanton has pitched well of late. A's are 23-11 in Blanton's last 34 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5 which means when the game is set to a high scoring game, Blanton pitches well holding the opposing team in what is expected to be a slugfest and the A's typically win. This could be a wild one, but the Indians are 1-5 with Gorman behind the plate and what the heck, I'll get the tums ready but the numbers here point to some clear advantages for the a's.
Summary of all the leans (significant on spreadsheet, but didn't pull the trigger) but no plays if you don't have time to read the research - for you RichieG -
Drays
Astros Run-Line
Over reds/phillies
Not bad finished all research in less than 40 minutes.