Jibba's Friday MLB

Post 6/27/07 record:

Favorites: 1-0 for +1 units.
Underdogs: 2-2 for +0.92 units.
Total: 3-2 for +1.92 units.

Totals: 0-0 for 0 units.

Run lines: 0-0 for 0 units.

Pre 6/27/07 record:

Favorites: 156-106 for +5.61 units.
Underdogs: 63-71 for +11.82 units.
Total: 219-177 for 17.43.

Totals: 5-2 for 3.33 units.
________________________________________________________

I'm just splitting my record up for the time being as a mental thing. Not sure why, but I think that starting "fresh" at zero units might be good for me. Both records are listed though, and it's not like I'm trying to forget a terrible first half, as I still was in the black. I'll likely just combine them after awhile, but I'm hoping this will give me a mental boost.

So yesterday was a very weird day. Could have easily won every game, and could have easily lost every game. When playing mostly dogs, that's usually a good thing though. And it turned out nice going 3-2 for +1.92 units. Got screwed earlier in the season with the Cubs/Pirates game, so it feels good to get one back like the O's game. On to today. These are both official plays that I am putting in as I type this.

Cardinals +132: Something seems fishy about this line, but I can't resist. Bronson Arroyo is just horrible this year at home. Hitters have caught up to his stuff and have been pounding him lately, but yet he's favored with this line? St. Louis is nothing special to be sure, but they have a solid pitcher going tonight and happen to not have the fewest wins in baseball, as the Reds do. Cincinatti is a measly 14-23 at home this year, and Arroyo has had a lot to do with that. In 7 starts at home this year, he is 1-3 with a 7.17 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a .300 BAA. In his last 9 starts overall, he's 0-7 with a 7.28 ERA and a .345 BAA. And finally, he hasn't had much success in the past against St. Louis. So why is he favored over Wainwright, who's sporting a 2.91 ERA in his last 7 starts? Got me. 1 unit to win 1.32.

Diamondbacks +124: After a tough series with the Dodgers, Arizona will look to get back on track against the woeful Giants tonight. And the only reason that they're dogs in this game is because they'll be facing Matt Morris. But IMO, he's not nearly enough reason to make the last place Giants favored at this price over a team that is a half game out of the division lead and that is 10 games over .500. Morris has been a nice story so far this year, but I don't think he'll continue the impressive season much longer. And I like the fact that the D-Backs just got a chance to see him a couple weeks ago. I can't see him matching the great performance he put up against them last time around.

Arizona sends Livan Hernandez to the hill tonight, and I think he has a god shot at getting back on track now that he gets to face weak NL offenses again. Hernandez has been horrible in his last 3 starts, going 0-3 with a 7.67 ERA and a .371 BAA. But that was somewhat expected. After all, who would really back the old vet against 3 solid AL East offenses? As we saw in the 5 games prior to that interleague stretch, Hernandez is much better against the pitcher-friendly National League. In his previous 5 games, he had gone 2-1 while giving up only 11 ERs in 37 innings against SF, NYM, Houston, and back to back starts against Colorado. Finally, Hernandez comes in with a 2.82 ERA against the Giants in 10 starts. Should be a tight game but in the end I think the far better team takes this one. 1 unit to win 1.24.

Will be back in a bit as I continue to sift through today's card.

Another official play, as I get the feeling this one may not get much better.

Orioles +146: The Angels come in off of being swept by the lowly Royals at home. They send Kelvim Escobar and his impressive 9-3 record to the mound in Baltimore tonight. And despite Escobar's solid numbers against the O's in his career (12-5, 3.87), I don't like this spot for him. He's nowhere near as solid on the road this year, with an ERA almost 2 runs higher on the road and a BAA of about .035 points higher. The problem that we run into by looking at Escobar's career stats against Baltimore is that they don't give us an accurate picture. He's faced Baltimore once already this year. In that start, in LA, he went 8 but gave up 9 hits, 4 BBs, and 5 ERs in a 6-2 O's win. He faced them once last year as well, that time only going 6.1 innings while giving up 8 hits and 5 ERs. He did not face Baltimore in 2005, and I don't think there's much value going back any further, since this Baltimore offense is nothing like it used to be. While it's true they don't have Tejada, that hasn't exactly killed their offense and it's giving their good young hitters an opportunity to take the lead. I think that might be good for this team.

Baltimore has played much better this season at home, where they are still only around .500. But Steve Trachsel, who takes the hill tonight for Baltimore, has been great at home. In 6 home starts, he is 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a .225 BAA. And he gets to face an Angels team that is flat out struggling at the plate, and that may not have one of their big sparks in the lineup. Reggie Willits bruised his knee crashing into a wall on Wednesday and may not be in the lineup. I'm sure they'll want to be very careful with that knee since Willits is a guy who gets much of his value from his speed. 1 unit to win 1.46.

Can't believe I talked myself into thinking the O's line wouldn't get any higher. I actually got a bit better than +146, but it's already up to +154. Not sure what was going on with the line dropping when I was watching it, but that's the breaks. Still think the O's win that one. Just finished up with the day games. One official play to add for the time being.

Brewers +120: The Cubs ride a 6 game winning streak into this one and are playing well. But the Brewers come in on fire as well, having won 8 of 10 and 14 of 21. A lot of the shine has come off Rich Hill, and as high as I am on him, he's been falling off a bit lately. I also agree with most of the Rx that Gallardo is the real deal. I think the Cubbies have a tough time with him today, and this one is a coin flip at worst IMO. Brewers are the better team and have played that way this year. I'll take them over the Cubs, who are under .500 overall and at home this year. 1 unit to win 1.2.

Currently working on a few games. Have a lean on the Mets in the other early game, and a slight lean on the Nationals (+162) and Padres (-110).

Good Morning Jib

See you`re leaning away from my boy Snell, I like him a lot vs the Nats. Hard to believe the O`s have generated the offense they have w/o Tejada. LAA has been in a terrible slump true, but they have the 3rd best rd recd in the AL. Don`t like laying that kind of juice with a slumping tm. I`m on the Brewers & Mets RL early. May also play that one over. BOL to you.

Official Plays:

Brewers: 1 unit to win 1.2.
NY Mets: 1.34 units to win 1.
Diamondbacks: 1 unit to win 1.24.
Cardinals: 1 unit to win 1.32.
Orioles: 1 unit to win 1.46.

_____________________________________________________

I added the Mets as I just can't see them dropping this one. I much prefer backing that team on the road than at home.

Not sure if I can go ahead and back the Nats tonight, but still mulling that one. Just hard to go against Snell at home, although the line still seems out of whack with a bad Pitt team getting this line. Will also very likely make San Diego a play as soon as I convince myself that it's not a sucker bet. Line just keeps dropping (currently down to -109). Also currently watching the Tigers/Twins lines. Still have work to do on the rest of the AL card, but nothing jumps out and screams at me.

Official Plays:

Brewers: 1 unit to win 1.2.
NY Mets: 1.34 units to win 1.
Diamondbacks: 1 unit to win 1.24.
Cardinals: 1 unit to win 1.32.
Orioles: 1 unit to win 1.46.
Padres: 1.1 units to win 1.
_____________________________________________________

Thanks and good luck tonight silver7.

with you on mets Jibba.... where did you get your mets play at that price?? GL with your picks today....might tail you on Mil also

dcspride said:

with you on mets Jibba.... where did you get your mets play at that price?? GL with your picks today....might tail you on Mil also

Click to expand...

Thansk dcs. All my lines these days are from Matchbook. I think every gambler should have an account there. As for the Brewers, seems like there are a lot of people on them today, and have yet to see any cappers on the Cubs. BOL today.

Official Plays:

Brewers: 1 unit to win 1.2.
NY Mets: 1.34 units to win 1.
Diamondbacks: 1 unit to win 1.24.
Cardinals: 1 unit to win 1.32.
Orioles: 1 unit to win 1.46.
Padres: 1.1 units to win 1.
Mariners: 1.32 units to win 1.
_____________________________________________________

The day has started off nicely, although to be sure there's plenty of time left in both of the day games. Going to add one more.

Mariners -132: The first thought that popped into my head when I saw this line was that Dustin McGowan was somehow undervalued again. The more and more I thought about it, I realized that was the public side of my brain thinking, and I marked the game as a no play. But I went back and took yet another look at this one, and now find myself clearly on the M's in this matchup. The books know what they're doing. They don't offer public favorites (and McGowan is the flavor of the week after his near no-no) with a good price without a reason. And I think they have plenty in this game.

Toronto comes into this matchup fresh off of a tough 4 game series in Minnesota. They flew out to the west coast while the Mariners were resting up on their day off. Besides the fact that they are potentially tired, they are also just not a good team on the road, where they sport a 15-21 record. The Mariners, on the other hand, have turned into a very solid team at home this year, where they are an impressive 24-15 (and 12-4 over their last 16 at home). Seattle also comes into tonight's game playing very well overall, having won 7 of their last 8 games. The way this squad has hit the ball this year, I think they'll have success against McGowan, who has put up a 5.34 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP on the road this season. Especially in a perfect letdown spot like this.

Additionally, the Mariners send Jarrod Washburn to the hill tonight. Although his numbers don't show it this year, this is a guy I feel much more confident with at home, especially now that he's in Seattle. Although I don't expect a repeat of his 1 run gem against the Reds, I can't see these Bluejay bats hitting him hard tonight considering that they have not been impressive on the road this year. I think the books are begging for Toronto money with this line, and I'm happy to be on the other side. 1.32 units to win 1.

BOL to everyone on today's card.

Win or loss, very well analyzed handicapping. Nice read you have on Arroyo and the Cardinals game.

Best of luck.

buffettgambler said:

Win or loss, very well analyzed handicapping. Nice read you have on Arroyo and the Cardinals game.

Best of luck.

Click to expand...

Thanks Buffett. Feel a little uneasy about that one (and the Padres) as I think the line is asking for money on the side I took. But I still think there's enough value in the Cards to make it a play. BOL tonight.

Official Plays:

Brewers: 1 unit to win 1.2.
NY Mets: 1.34 units to win 1.
Diamondbacks: 1 unit to win 1.24.
Cardinals: 1 unit to win 1.32.
Orioles: 1 unit to win 1.46.
Padres: 1.1 units to win 1.
Mariners: 1.32 units to win 1.
Mets/Philles u 8.5: 0.5 units to win 0.54.
Red Sox -1.5: 0.56 units to win 0.5.
_____________________________________________________

What an awful way to end the afternoon. If there's any positive to be taken out of it, I can still say confidently that the Brewers were the right side today. Fluke blown losses are going to happen, and I'll get lucky and unlucky on them over the season. Can't sweat being on a +120 dog who manages to blow a 2 run lead in the bottom of the 9th. Anyway, added two plays, but kept them small. Sox is a gut play, to be completely honest. And I think game 2 of the DH will live up to the pitching duel hype.

BOL to everyone tonight.