Larry Ness
(Pitching Mismatch GOW)
15* SD Padres
(Bailout GOW)
15* SF Giants
Brandon Lang
15 Dime:
San Diego Padres
5 Dimes:
Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants
Gator
70% Situational Report
MLB (Friday): Play Against MLB home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team that averages <=4.5 runs per game facing a team with a bullpen ERA >=5.00 and a starting pitcher who averages less than 1.75 bases on balls per start.
(38-13 since 1997.) (74.5%)
PLAY: Chicago White Sox -105
Mighty ! Quinn
Minnesota Twins
Arizona D'Backs
Bobby Maxwell
San Diego at L.A. DODGERS (+115)
It looks like the National League West is going to be a dogfight all summer and after the Padres swept the Dodgers in early June, look for a little payback in this series as they travel to Los Angeles for a three-game set.
It's Hong-Chih Kuo (1-3, 6.33 ERA) on the hill for the Dodgers tonight against the Padres' Chris Young (7-3, 2.08 ERA). Now while the numbers might favor Young and the Padres, this game is going to the Dodgers.
Kuo has pitched very well since joining the rotation on June 2. He has held the opposition to three runs or less in four of the five outings and limited San Diego to one run on three hits over six innings back on June 7.
Last time Young was in Los Angeles he had the shortest outing of the season when he gave up five runs on seven hits in two innings of a 9-3 loss.
The Dodgers beat up a big pitcher on Thursday in Arizona when they handled Randy Johnson 9-3 and they'll take down another tall one tonight in Young. The Dodgers have been hitting the ball exceptionally well lately, batting .303 against righties and .312 against southpaws over the last 10 games.
Play Los Angeles and look for the Dodgers to have plenty of offense tonight for Kuo.
2? L.A. DODGERS
Drew Gordon
Milwaukee at CHI. CUBS (-125)
Two red-hot teams square off this afternoon at Wrigley, but after watching Rich Hill return to form in his last start, the play here is clearly on the Cubs behind their talented southpaw.
The Brewers Yovani Gallardo gets the start Friday, coming off an impressive start against the Royals. However, beating up on the Royals at Miller, and beating the Cubs at Wrigley, are two entirely different situations. This will be Gallardo first career road start, facing a team batting .302 over their L10 against righties... Not a good situation for Gallardo or the Brewers.
Rich Hill takes the Hill for the Cubbies, looking to build off a solid start against the White Sox, allowing 1 run over 5 2/3 innings. Its no secret he's struggled since starting the season red-hot, however if you saw him pitch against the White Sox, you know what I'm talking about!
Bottom line, look for Hill to throw some cold water on the Brewers surging offense, while you simply cannot expect the same from Gallardo in his first away start. Cubs roll at Wrigley!
Take the Chicago Cubs behind Hill over Milwaukee in this NL Central showdown.
2? CHI. CUBS
Michael Cannon
Milwaukee at CHICAGO CUBS (-130)
Take the Cubs today as the home chalk for the win over the Brewers.
The Cubs' 15 wins since June 3 are the most in the majors. They come into today's game riding a six-game winning streak and would like nothing else but to cut into Milwaukee's lead in the division.
Rich Hill will start this afternoon and the left-hander is coming off a solid effort on Saturday. Hill allowed one run and six hits with six strikeouts in 5 2-3 innings of the Cubs 2-1 win over the White Sox. Although he didn't get the decision, it's a step in the right direction for the pitcher who started the season 3-1 with a 1.73 ERA in his first six starts.
Milwaukee's rookie Yovani Gallardo will make his first road start and I like the Cubs to get to him early.
Take the Cubs for the win this afternoon in Wrigley.
3? CHICAGO CUBS
Dave Cokin
(977) CHI White Sox
(978) KC Royals
Take "(977) CHI White Sox"
The White Sox have suddenly gotten hot, just having completed a four game sweep at Tampa Bay. Now they try their luck with the Royals, who are off a stunning sweep of their own at Anaheim. This could be the final start in this uniform for Jose Contreras, who's being mentioned in trade talks with several teams, including the Mets. Contreras is not pitching very well, but I'll still give him a slight edge over Brian Bannister. More importantly, Paul Konerko has gotten hot and Scott Podsednik is back from his injury to act as a catalyst at the top of the order. With the Chisox bats finally coming alive, there may be some decent value with this team. I'll come right back with another Bonus Play call on the White Sox for Friday night.
Jim Feist
(959) STL Cardinals
(960) CIN Reds
Take "Over"
Cincy is a hitter's park: The Reds average 4.2 runs on the road, but 5.1 at home! That's why the team is 22-12 over the total at home. The scoreboard should be busy with a pair of weak hurlers on the hill. St. Louis starter Kip Wells (6.45 ERA) has been awful at 3-11, while Bronson Arroyo is 2-9 with a 5.14 ERA. And these bullpens have been weak all season, so look for a shootout. Play the Cardinals/Reds over the total!
Friday Horse Racing Spots/Previews
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
IOWA OAKS (G3), 7TH-PRM, $200,000, 3YO, F, 1 1/16M, 9:25 P.M. CDT, 6-29
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SWIFT TEMPER BARNETT BOBBY C DOOCY T T 115
2 IRISH PARTY VON HEMEL KELLY MONTERREY R 115
3 COMARILLO CHLEBORAD LYNN QUINONEZ B 112
4 ALBA DABAS SECRET ROBERSON DONALD E THOMPSON T J 121
5 BYENNE ACKERMAN D KELLY SUKIE D G 112
6 HIGH AGAIN MOTT WILLIAM I FLORES D R 121
7 MARIETTA HARTY EOIN BEJARANO R 115
8 ACROSSTHEBORDER TRACY RAY E JR CAMPBELL JOEL 115
9 HUMBLE JANET ASMUSSEN STEVEN M QUINONEZ L S 115
10 LE CHATEAU NICKS RALPH E ALBARADO R J 115
Ten sophomore fillies will contest Friday night's $200,000 Iowa Oaks (G3), and HIGH AGAIN (High Yield) is clearly the one to beat. Trained by Bill Mott, the chestnut lass led through most of the stretch in the Dogwood Breeders' Cup S. (G3) before finishing second by a length last out. Prior to that, she squared off against Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy) and other top three-year-old fillies in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), recording an unplaced finish in what has become a very key race.
High Again registered a field-best 97 BRIS Speed rating for her score in the Bonnie Miss S. (G2) earlier this year, and she earned a 95 for a second in the Davona Dale S. (G2). Her tactical speed should ensure a good trip in this 1 1/16-mile event, and David Flores will pilot her for the second straight time. We won't go against the likely chalk.
ALBA DABAS SECRET (Madraar) offers the opportunity for some value. Listed at 20-1 on the morning line, the multiple stakes winner returned from a freshening to finish a decent fourth in the Panthers S. at Prairie Meadows on June 9. She's worked well since then over the track, and the Donald Roberson pupil is eligible to show more in her second local attempt as the speed. Alba Dabas Secret owns top BRIS E1 and E2 Pace ratings here, and she isn't a one-dimensional front runner. However, we expect her to show speed from the start.
MARIETTA (Machiavellian) appears to be on the improve for Eoin Harty, breaking her maiden two starts back and finishing third in the Selene S. (Can-G3) at Woodbine most recently. The winner in the latter, Bear Now (Tiznow), captured the Hill 'n' Dale S. by 9 3/4 lengths next out. Marietta will get the services of Rafael Bejarano, and the late runner will attempt to pick up the pieces for a top-three placing.
IRISH PARTY (Twining) has shown an affinity for the Altoona, Iowa, oval, recording a 5-1-1 mark from eight starts, and she posted back-to-back stakes wins before finishing second in the Panthers last time. The Kelly Von Hemel charge has raced at mostly shorter distances, but Irish Party figures to be in the thick of things turning for home and may be able to hold for part.
LE CHATEAU (Chester House) is poorly drawn on the far outside, but she can't be dismissed from exotics consideration. A 10 1/2-length maiden winner three starts back, the Ralph Nicks runner gained valuable seasoning versus stakes rivals when fifth in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) two back. She posted a confidence-building win at this distance over allowance rivals at Churchill last time, and Le Chateau figures to be charging late under regular rider Robby Albarado.
SWIFT TEMPER (Giant's Causeway) kept good company this spring, but was unplaced in three straight attempts versus graded stakes rivals. Her last start -- a fifth against allowance rivals at Churchill -- is more disconcerting, but she did have some traffic issues that afternoon. The chestnut filly won't face the stiffest competition in this spot, and she'll be running late under Tim Doocy. ACROSSTHEBORDER (Include) turned in two solid efforts prior to a sixth in the Panthers, and we wouldn't be surprised to see her improve off her last start, which followed a two-month freshening. Her Speed numbers are a little low, but the Ray Tracy Jr. trainee had hit the board in five straight races prior to her last.
After being claimed for $30,000 three starts back, HUMBLE JANET (Humble Eleven) finished third in an entry-level allowance before breaking through under the same conditions last time for Steve Asmussen. She'll receive a serious class test here, and Humble Janet will have to overcome post 9. BYENNE (Jambalaya Jazz) has been kept strictly on Polytrack throughout her five-race career, racing at Turfway, Keeneland and Arlington. We'll watch to see how she handles a new surface (dirt) in her stakes bow. COMARILLO (Deputy Commander), a $25,000 claiming winner three starts back, would be a surprise here.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-HIGH AGAIN
2nd-ALBA DABAS SECRET
3rd-MARIETTA
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Friday, June 29
RACE ONE
The Captain Squire Handicap is an interesting handicapping challenge, bringing together five runners who have all made their last start at different tracks. NOBLE COURT, who was last seen taking the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita in February, has trained exceptionally well for John Sadler and gets top billing. QUINTONS SHOCKER won three of his four starts in Arizona last year and returns with a new trainer in Mike Mitchell. LUIS'S ESPECIAL is the now horse, winning three of his last five, and might be able to handle the class raise.
RACE TWO
MOONLIT HABIT never really got untracked May 19 in his first start since last summer, but should rebound nicely today. The last time he tried two turns he was a close second to multiple winner Robador. He'll be awfully tough to catch from the rail. BIG BAD LEROYBROWN has moved forward in each start and now gets an opportunity to route for Donald Warren. He should complete the exacta. GENERAL BUENO was a couple lengths behind 'LEROYBROWN after a slow start. He graduated at this trip May 10.
RACE THREE
Fillies and mares at this level are known for their inconsistency, but I'MALADYTAK seems the most reliable. She stepped up to the $16,000 level after being claimed by high-percentage trainer Frank Monteleone, faltered late, and now dips down to the cellar and draws the leading rider. She's been in the money six of nine this year. LIL NUGGET just handled a similar group and now goes for her third straight. Her stalking style makes her a fit. JIMMIE PONG has settled for minor shares recently and can grab another small piece of the pot.
RACE FOUR
The most effective drop in racing is from straight maidens to maiden claiming and SURFER KRIS fits the bill well. After three nondescript efforts routing, 'KRIS cuts back in distance and should turn back this ordinary claiming crew. TRUCKEE LITE made steady progress against similar, finishing third behind a pair of deadheaters. He's been showing improvement from race to race and can move up into the two spot today. EAGLE RIDGE has been a big disappointment and doesn't seem to be getting any better. He can't drop any lower than today's price.
RACE FIVE
SUM MISTAKE saved ground and was a willing second in her first attempt over Cushion Track. She steps up a notch here for Monteleone and appears the probable winner from just off the pace. REMEMBER MAGGIE finds a race without much speed and could shake loose from her outside post. Beware. COURT OF QUEENS showed courage in her maiden victory and is placed at what should be a competitive level. Her rider, Isaias Enriques, isn't getting much press but is enjoying a fine meeting (16%).
RACE SIX
BAD BOY seems to have found his niche, losing by a head under these conditions June 6. Unless one of the firsters can fly, BAD BOY looks like the right horse. WORLD NEWS is coupled in the wagering with BAD BOY, making the entry double tough. 'NEWS ran best sprinting on the turf, so it's been a bit surprising that his connections continued to run him long. He returns to the short game and will no doubt perk up. PUSH SEND debuts for strong connections (Richard Mandella and Victor Espinoza) and has a list of good workouts.
RACE SEVEN
CHARMING DOT loves this turf course and is making the most of it. This race will mark her fifth start of the meeting and she's already come away with two victories. Her versatility is the key to her success. CATEGORIZE will take a lot of betting action as she dips into claiming company. She's often in the battle, but has come away empty in five outings this year. SPY ALY was beaten a nose by 'DOT one race back, but was claimed by Steve Knapp and immediately regressed.
RACE EIGHT
STAYS IN VEGAS was second when dropped to this level June 7 and now gets a pivotal rider change from William Antongeorgi to Corey Nakatani. She has good early zip and may stay the course. SAN LAMEER got within a half-length of 'VEGAS in the aforementioned race and could turn the tables with any luck. CAPTURE THE CAT is now trained by Adam Kitchingman after
Best Bet-MOONLITE HABIT (2)
__________________
Belmont
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Banrock (4th race)
First Race
1. Spenny 2. Gold Like U 3. Short Fuse Tara
SPENNY was finished after the opening half-mile when tried on the grass two weeks ago; trainer has solid turf-to-dirt numbers, and she has run well all three starts on dirt this season. GOLD LIKE U has been productive on a once-a-month schedule in 2007, and like the choice she holds a recent decision over SHORT FUSE TARA; question is whether she can still put up two good-figure performances back to back. Short Fuse Tara chased a bias-aided winner when claimed from runner-up finish at odds-on; would need a new lifetime top figure to turn the tables on the top two.
Second Race
1. He Aint Easy 2. Bully for Us 3. Wonderous Day
HE AINT EASY was roughed up and steadied at the start in debut, rallied wide to decision ONE LITTLE SECRET (who was knocked sideways at the break and raced greenly); another try. BULLY FOR US is by multiple Grade 1 winner who loved this track; trio of fast workouts. WONDEROUS DAY (half-brother to several sprint winners) and NICELY PUT (half to recent turf sprint winner Inside Info) rate a look if money shows.
Third Race
1. False Pretense 2. Just Seventeen 3. Loving Vindication
FALSE PRETENSE sold for $130K in training three months ago; half-sister to seven-time sprint winner (and Claiming Crown winner) Mum's Gold has worked steadily. JUST SEVENTEEN is by a very good debut sire, and has been readied by a stable that has won several 2-year-old sprints at the meet. LOVING VINDICATION fetched $750K as a yearling last fall; may have tipped hand in June 8 work ranked best of 64 at the distance.
Fourth Race
1. Banrock 2. Couth 3. Red Down South
BANROCK finished well after finding room when second in first start of the year to Pays to Dream, who was winning his third straight; that was a slight improvement to a new top Beyer figure, and his typical efforts look to be a cut above these. COUTH matched his lifetime best figure when returned to turf second start of the year; two-time winner on local grass spotted field a head-start at 8-5 most recently. RED DOWN SOUTH raced wide when beaten a couple lengths by Banrock first time out as a 7-year-old - his best race since the fall of 2005; picks up Luzzi.
Fifth Race
1. Zen Buddha 2. Fascinating Girl 3. Runaway Star
ZEN BUDDHA picked up the pieces for fourth after lagging well off a sharp pace set by repeater Southern Sass first out; drops a notch, should be closer with blinkers on. FASCINATING GIRL has caught sealed wet tracks in her last two starts vs. maiden claimers; only other try for sale was a rallying secondd on this track to begin career. RUNAWAY STAR has a pedigree that suggests she should be at least as good on dirt as on turf, and perhaps better; lone dirt start was vs. special-weight rivals.
Sixth Race
1. Minefield 2. Leo 3. Silver Timber
If switched to dirt, MINEFIELD showed considerable talent winning both starts off workouts as a juvenile by a combined 12 1/4 lengths, and was sold to Godolphin Stable after the big-figure score in the fall. On turf, Godolphin also has the one to beat in LEO or TRUE CAUSE, who finished necks apart in a listed stake as 2-year-olds overseas. Leo hasn't been out since October of 2005, but that was also the case with Emirates to Dubai, another Godolphin layoff winner in a turf sprint last week. SILVER TIMBER may be pushing the envelope attempting a stretch to seven furlongs, but was sharp in comeback on this course, and breezed nicely five days ago.
Seventh Race
1. Montauk Daisy 2. Cateleisha 3. Mt Langfuhr
MONTAUK DAISY overcame some trouble to win her first two starts in long sprints last year, which is a good indication she'll be ready for first start at age 4; favorable work pattern. CATELEISHA went well for second last out vs. 8-5 favorite Zippy Missy - her best race in termss of figures since debut on this track as a juvenile; extra credit for wet track. MT LANGFUHR rode the crest of an inside speed bias to turn back odd-on Short Fuse Tara last out; tougher pace match-up with LADY ELAINE in the mix.
Eighth Race
1. Giant Basil 2. Mathematician 3. Rock Lobster
GIANT BASIL was sidelined after disappointing as the favorite in the Hill Prince last June, and returned with an exceptionally fast and game win at Hollywood Park, a race in which he made two moves to prevail; arrived in New York shortly afterward, has trained well while given ample recovery time. MATHEMATICIAN appeared poised to pounce turning for home, but came up empty when set down in U.S. debut here just 12 days ago; entrymate PALACE EPISODE was a Group 1 winner at 2, but was eased lone start as a 3-year-old. ROCK LOBSTER is back at course & distance of close-up fourth with a near-top figure two starts ago; tough set-up last out chasing 2006 Peter Pan winner Sunriver, who recaptured his best form to wire the field first time on grass.
Ninth Race
1. Lets Get Going 2. Party Jones 3. Broadway Bud
LETS GET GOING was no match for well-bet comebacker Armament last out, but was clearly best of the rest; also a clear second in previous non-winners of two claimer on local turf. PARTY JONES slipped through inside, gave odds-on Exton a good fight down to the wire most recently; never out of the exacta since switched to turf. BROADWAY BUD and GOOD LOOKING OUT figure close based on their respective last-out victories over maiden claimers; the latter is the lone entrant to have successfully negotiated nine furlongs.
__________________
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Belmont for Friday June 29, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Belmont
Ranking: 4 Coins
Belmont - Race #7 - Post: 6:04pm
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
Choice Plays:
#6 MT LANGFUHR (ML=5/1)
#7 LADY ELAINE (ML=7/2)
MT LANGFUHR - Ran against 'open' company in the last race, in with state breds today. This filly's last rating is good enough to win here, I'll play her right back this time out. I am keen on that recent effort on Jun 14th at Belmont where she finished first. LADY ELAINE - The jock has had great success with this horse in the past. Didn't ride last time but gets back in the saddle today. This speed freak should benefit from this race's shorter distance. This entrant ran out of the money at Belmont last time out on the soft turf. She should improve in this event under better track conditions.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MONTAUK DAISY (ML=9/5), #3 CATELEISHA (ML=5/2), #4 PRECISE LADY (ML=8/1)
MONTAUK DAISY - I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended vacation and no drop in level of competition. CATELEISHA - Finished second in her most recent performance with a mediocre fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field. PRECISE LADY - Would have to advance off that fifth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MT LANGFUHR - I'm investing on this one today. A softer field is going to make a big difference. Will be strong today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 MT LANGFUHR is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,7]
__________________
Brian Gabrielle
Bonus Play: Orlando Predators vs Phildelphia Soul
Wild Card Shootout! Predators and Soul played one week ago and it was a blowout for the Soul. Expect higher scoring from Orlando today and an all out attack on the passer for Philadelphia. Orlando just aquired a very good receiver 3 weeks ago and last week he (Toliver) delivered 3 touchdowns. If the Predators' receiver Ron Johnson is healthy, he is a factor as well. Meanwhile Philadelphia have been up and down all year-playing well one week and not so well the following week. Expect Coach Gruden to kick it up a notch and the Predators to make a better score today. Turnovers will be the key today-whichever team gets the ball the most scores the most. I expect a knock-down dragout matchup. Take the total to go over.
Bonus Play: Saskatchewan Rough Riders vs Montreal Alouettes
We will play the Alouettes at -3 . The Alouettes stack up in our CFL system with a 5.9 rating. Our system is based on several years of experience, practice and fine tuning with solid year over year returns. Ratings are not multipliers on base unit betting. Our ratings system is on a 1-8 scale, but we will never release a play lower than a 5.9. Winning is our business and businss is good.
dennis macklin
MLB Chicago (A) vs. Kansas City []
Take Under
Both these teams are currently on significant under runs, the White Sox eight straight, the Royals 4-1 L5 and 7-3 L10. While neither of tonight\'s starters have overwhelming statistical numbers, this is a good spot for both. Jose Contreras had been an UNDER machine prior to last year\'s All-Star break, at one point the under cashing in 32-9 of his 41 starts. The big righty is 7-2 LT vs KC with 2.96 ERA. Brian Bannister is 4-4 with respectable 3.78 ERA and Royals are 6-2 under in his starts. Neither team hitting much over L7 and both getting by on solid pitching
maddux sports
Cincinnati -145
Gator's MLB 70% Situational Report:
MLB (Friday): Play Against MLB home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team that averages <=4.5 runs per game facing a team with a bullpen ERA >=5.00 and a starting pitcher who averages less than 1.75 bases on balls per start.
(38-13 since 1997.) (74.5%)
PLAY: Chicago White Sox -105
HONDO
June 29, 2007 -- Hondo, who bagged a beaut Wednesday night with the Bucs, gave the bulk of it back yesterday when he tumbled with Texas to raise the ac counts payable to 95 zisks.
Tonight, he's loggin' in with Mussina in El Bronx - 10 units on the best underachievers money can buy
Marc Lawrence
MLBFriday 6/29
San Francisco w/Morris over Arizona w/Hernandez
Matt Morris takes the hill in San Francisco tonight knowing his 2.79 ERA at home this year is more than a full run better than his road ERA (3.93). On the flip side, Arizona's Livan Hernandez sports a 5.67 ERA away from home as opposed to a 3.83 ERA at home. With Hernandez having dropped 7 of his last 9 team starts in June and Morris having cashed in 12 of his last 16 teams starts in June, including four in a row at home, we'll stay at home with Morris and the Giants against Hernandez and the Diamondbacks this evening
Marc Lawrence MLB Super Pick Super Play! - Friday 6/29:
Play On: Chicago White Sox w/Contreras over Kansas City w/Bannister
Note: Pale Hose send Jose Contreras up against Royls' Brian Bannister knowing Contreras ERA on the road (3.94) is more than a run and a half better than his ERA at home (5.45) this season. On the other hand, Bannister WHIP at home (14.28) pales in comparison to his road WHIP (8.6). Back the better team, and the better arm, here tonight.
Guaranteed Sports MLB
Marlins -155
dave Price MLB
Orioles +165
Black Widow MLB
Rangers 9.5
Info Plays MLB
Orioles +170
3-0 +370
John Martin MLB
Dodgers U 8.5
Jeff Alexander MLB
White Sox +121
Jimmy Boyd MLB
Mets -175
BC Sports MLB
Rockies +155
Pro Cappers MLB
D-Backs -135
Tony Mathews
10* Braves -125
10* Detroit -120
10* White sox -110
Larry Ness' 15* Pitching Mismatch GOW (64-17 with 15* GOW plays since Opening Day!)
My 15* play is on the SD Padres at 10:40 ET. San Diego's Chris Young last visited Dodger Stadium back on April 15 and he lasted just two innings, allowing seven hits and four ERs. The Dodgers won that game 9-3, snapping Young's streak of 25 consecutive road starts without a loss. Young had been 9-0 with 16 no-decisions on the road dating to June 25, 2005, at Houston when he was with Texas. Young's hardly let that poor start get to him, as he enters this game 7-3 with a 2.08 ERA in 2007. He's DOMINATED at home TY, allowing just 27 hits and five ERs in 48 innings for a 0.94 ERA in seven starts. However, the Padres are just 4-3 in those games. His road efforts in '07, despite that ugly start at Dodgers Stadium, are still very impressive. After the Padres went 12-4 in his road starts LY (2.25 ERA), they are 6-2 in his road starts in '07 (3.38). He'll face an LA team that's barely over .500 vs right-handers in '07 (28-26), while averaging barely four runs per game (4.1). Meanwhile, he'll be opposed by Dodger lefty Hong-Chih Kuo. Kuo looked sharp in his first three outings (2.04 ERA) but in his last two, has allowed 10 hits and 11 ERs in seven innings (14.14). That spells good news for a SD team that's 15-9 (plus-$525) vs lefties this year, averaging 4.9 RPG. Pitching Mismatch GOW 15* SD Padres
Larry Ness' 15* Bailout GOW (64-17 with 15*s TY / Perfect 8-0 with Bailout GOW plays!)
My 15* play is on the SF Giants at 10:15 ET. Arizona's in a first-place 'battle' with LA and San Diego in the NL West, while the Giants (at 33-44) just keep waiting for Barry to hit numbers 755 and 756. However, while San Francisco is just 9-22 since May 25, the Giants have won 10 of their last 13 home meetings with the D'backs, including a three-game sweep earlier this season (4/20-22). Matt Morris goes for the Giants and he's bounced back from a career-worst 4.99 ERA last year (his first year with the Giants after nine seasons with the Cards) to go 7-4 with a 3.39 in 15 starts in 2007 (team is 9-6). Morris won 79 games from 2001-05 with the Cards and was an excellent home pitcher, with the Cards winning 68% of his home starts (59-28) during that five-year run. In seven home starts this year, the Giants are 5-2 with Morris posting a 2.79 ERA. Livan Hernandez goes for Arizona (pitched for the Giants from 1999-2002) and while he's 3-4 with a 2.82 ERA in 10 career starts vs San Francisco, he comes into this game in terrible form. In his last five starts he's 0-3 (team is 1-4), allowing 43 hits and 23 ERs in 27 innings for an ERA of 7.67. Bailout GOW 15* SF Giants.
Good Luck...Larry
black widow sports
MLB
1* on Philadelphia -151
(List Hamels)
Lefty standout Cole Hamels takes on a struggling Mets team that is 1-7 in their last 8 road games. Hamels is 9-3 on the year featuring a 3.80 ERA. Philly has won 3 straight over New York to boot. Cole Hamels beat John Maine 6-3 back on June 7th. The Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League East. The Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Phillies are 7-0 in Hamels' last 7 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. These 100% situations make this a very valuable Bonus Play. This is Game 2 of a double-header today, so make sure you are betting the finale. Take Philadelphia.
Steve Janus Free Pick 6.29.2007
MLB :Mets - 145
SPORTSCAPPING.COM FREE PICK 6/29
MLB: Mets - 145
jeff alexander
Kansas City +105 (Contreras and Bannister)
The Royals are on fire as they go for their 5th straight win tonight. The Royals are jacked after sweeping one of the best teams in the AL, and Bannister, who has won 4 of his last 5 starts will keep things rolling today. Contreras is just 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA in his last six starts. With the pitching clearly in K.C.'s favor, I have to give the Royals the edge at home.
info plays
3* on Cincinnati -127
(Listing Arroyo and Wainwright)
Bronson Arroyo is better than what he has shown this season. A return home will help his psyche for the Reds today. The Reds have owned St. Louis at home in recent years. Cincinnati is 8-3 over St. Louis in their last 11 home meetings. The Cardinals are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series and 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Reds are 5-1 in Arroyo's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Reds are 11-3 in Arroyo's last 14 starts during game 1 of a series. Bet Cincinnati today.
WUNDERDOG
BELMONT PARK Race #TWO (3:30 PM Eastern)
(# 5) HE AIN'T EASY - Ran a fine second in debut despite a troubled getaway. Donk barn has been live this entire meet and this gelding has had almost a month to recover from initial racing experience. Nice maintenance work on June 17.
(# 4) One Little Secret - Comes out of the same race as the top pick and he too had a poor start. Ramsay homebred chased the pace before tiring late. Trainer Wesley Ward has super numbers with second-time starters and the work on June 21 means business.
(# 2) Bully For Us - Stable has been known to have a two-year-old runner now and then. Works are all short and indicate that sp! eed is present. Son of Holy Bull debuts with Lasix, and Coa is enticed for the initial run.
Priceless Pick for Friday
MLB
Unit on Houston -138 (action)
Colorado is 13-42 against the money line in road games against NL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons and 42-104 against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games since 1997. Colorado has lost 7 straight games and as they saw in game 1, playing at Houston is still no cup of tea for them. The Astros are 6-1 at home against Colorado over the last 3 seasons. Take the 'stros!
PAUL Leiner
50* Whitesox
5* Wash/Pitt over 8.5
WUNDERDOG
Game: San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: San Diego -118
No one has slipped under the radar more so than Chris Young. He has put together 10 straight starts to rival any 10 in baseball history! Young has allowed just 35 hits in 63 innings and has pitched to a 1.12 ERA over his last 10. He has simply been unhittable. The Dodgers don't seem to know what to do with Hong Chih Kuo. He pitched out of the pen with little success last year while finishing the season as a starter. This year he opened in the pen again, only to be placed in the rotation, where he has had little success. Kuo has an ERA of 6+, and to put that in perspective it would take Young six starts to get that many runs as he has allowed 5 in his last 5 starts. Advantage Padres at a very economical price.
trev rodgers
78-44-3 Last 125 selections
1. Cubs -122
2. Dodgers +110
3. Rockies +125
Ed Redmon
2* DET
2* CHC
CAPPERS ACCESS
(Fri) MLB Cubs
(Fri) MLB Giants
LOCKSMITH SPORTS
MLB
on NY Yankees -172 (listing Kennedy and Mussina)
Kennedy is 2-16 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. He is just 2-8 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season, 3-11 against the money line in all games this season, and 4-18 against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. Put your clams on Kennedy and the A's getting lit up tonight on the road
BLACK MAGIC SPORTS
MLB
(Listing Santana)
We can’t remember the last time Johan Santana was an underdog. But we are definitely not going to pass up this opportunity to cash in with the league’s best pitcher. Santana has a 2.83 ERA on the season and has really turned it on over his last 3 starts. The Twins are 3-0 in Santana’s last 3 outings with his 1.23 ERA showcased. The Twins are 12-2 in Santana's last 14 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Twins are 46-13 in Santana's last 59 starts with 4 days of rest and 45-15 in Santana's last 60 starts vs. American League Central. The Tigers are just 1-4 in their last 5 home games. The Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Detroit. Cash in with Minnesota.
(Pitching Mismatch GOW)
15* SD Padres
(Bailout GOW)
15* SF Giants
Brandon Lang
15 Dime:
San Diego Padres
5 Dimes:
Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants
Gator
70% Situational Report
MLB (Friday): Play Against MLB home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team that averages <=4.5 runs per game facing a team with a bullpen ERA >=5.00 and a starting pitcher who averages less than 1.75 bases on balls per start.
(38-13 since 1997.) (74.5%)
PLAY: Chicago White Sox -105
Mighty ! Quinn
Minnesota Twins
Arizona D'Backs
Bobby Maxwell
San Diego at L.A. DODGERS (+115)
It looks like the National League West is going to be a dogfight all summer and after the Padres swept the Dodgers in early June, look for a little payback in this series as they travel to Los Angeles for a three-game set.
It's Hong-Chih Kuo (1-3, 6.33 ERA) on the hill for the Dodgers tonight against the Padres' Chris Young (7-3, 2.08 ERA). Now while the numbers might favor Young and the Padres, this game is going to the Dodgers.
Kuo has pitched very well since joining the rotation on June 2. He has held the opposition to three runs or less in four of the five outings and limited San Diego to one run on three hits over six innings back on June 7.
Last time Young was in Los Angeles he had the shortest outing of the season when he gave up five runs on seven hits in two innings of a 9-3 loss.
The Dodgers beat up a big pitcher on Thursday in Arizona when they handled Randy Johnson 9-3 and they'll take down another tall one tonight in Young. The Dodgers have been hitting the ball exceptionally well lately, batting .303 against righties and .312 against southpaws over the last 10 games.
Play Los Angeles and look for the Dodgers to have plenty of offense tonight for Kuo.
2? L.A. DODGERS
Drew Gordon
Milwaukee at CHI. CUBS (-125)
Two red-hot teams square off this afternoon at Wrigley, but after watching Rich Hill return to form in his last start, the play here is clearly on the Cubs behind their talented southpaw.
The Brewers Yovani Gallardo gets the start Friday, coming off an impressive start against the Royals. However, beating up on the Royals at Miller, and beating the Cubs at Wrigley, are two entirely different situations. This will be Gallardo first career road start, facing a team batting .302 over their L10 against righties... Not a good situation for Gallardo or the Brewers.
Rich Hill takes the Hill for the Cubbies, looking to build off a solid start against the White Sox, allowing 1 run over 5 2/3 innings. Its no secret he's struggled since starting the season red-hot, however if you saw him pitch against the White Sox, you know what I'm talking about!
Bottom line, look for Hill to throw some cold water on the Brewers surging offense, while you simply cannot expect the same from Gallardo in his first away start. Cubs roll at Wrigley!
Take the Chicago Cubs behind Hill over Milwaukee in this NL Central showdown.
2? CHI. CUBS
Michael Cannon
Milwaukee at CHICAGO CUBS (-130)
Take the Cubs today as the home chalk for the win over the Brewers.
The Cubs' 15 wins since June 3 are the most in the majors. They come into today's game riding a six-game winning streak and would like nothing else but to cut into Milwaukee's lead in the division.
Rich Hill will start this afternoon and the left-hander is coming off a solid effort on Saturday. Hill allowed one run and six hits with six strikeouts in 5 2-3 innings of the Cubs 2-1 win over the White Sox. Although he didn't get the decision, it's a step in the right direction for the pitcher who started the season 3-1 with a 1.73 ERA in his first six starts.
Milwaukee's rookie Yovani Gallardo will make his first road start and I like the Cubs to get to him early.
Take the Cubs for the win this afternoon in Wrigley.
3? CHICAGO CUBS
Dave Cokin
(977) CHI White Sox
(978) KC Royals
Take "(977) CHI White Sox"
The White Sox have suddenly gotten hot, just having completed a four game sweep at Tampa Bay. Now they try their luck with the Royals, who are off a stunning sweep of their own at Anaheim. This could be the final start in this uniform for Jose Contreras, who's being mentioned in trade talks with several teams, including the Mets. Contreras is not pitching very well, but I'll still give him a slight edge over Brian Bannister. More importantly, Paul Konerko has gotten hot and Scott Podsednik is back from his injury to act as a catalyst at the top of the order. With the Chisox bats finally coming alive, there may be some decent value with this team. I'll come right back with another Bonus Play call on the White Sox for Friday night.
Jim Feist
(959) STL Cardinals
(960) CIN Reds
Take "Over"
Cincy is a hitter's park: The Reds average 4.2 runs on the road, but 5.1 at home! That's why the team is 22-12 over the total at home. The scoreboard should be busy with a pair of weak hurlers on the hill. St. Louis starter Kip Wells (6.45 ERA) has been awful at 3-11, while Bronson Arroyo is 2-9 with a 5.14 ERA. And these bullpens have been weak all season, so look for a shootout. Play the Cardinals/Reds over the total!
Friday Horse Racing Spots/Previews
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
IOWA OAKS (G3), 7TH-PRM, $200,000, 3YO, F, 1 1/16M, 9:25 P.M. CDT, 6-29
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SWIFT TEMPER BARNETT BOBBY C DOOCY T T 115
2 IRISH PARTY VON HEMEL KELLY MONTERREY R 115
3 COMARILLO CHLEBORAD LYNN QUINONEZ B 112
4 ALBA DABAS SECRET ROBERSON DONALD E THOMPSON T J 121
5 BYENNE ACKERMAN D KELLY SUKIE D G 112
6 HIGH AGAIN MOTT WILLIAM I FLORES D R 121
7 MARIETTA HARTY EOIN BEJARANO R 115
8 ACROSSTHEBORDER TRACY RAY E JR CAMPBELL JOEL 115
9 HUMBLE JANET ASMUSSEN STEVEN M QUINONEZ L S 115
10 LE CHATEAU NICKS RALPH E ALBARADO R J 115
Ten sophomore fillies will contest Friday night's $200,000 Iowa Oaks (G3), and HIGH AGAIN (High Yield) is clearly the one to beat. Trained by Bill Mott, the chestnut lass led through most of the stretch in the Dogwood Breeders' Cup S. (G3) before finishing second by a length last out. Prior to that, she squared off against Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy) and other top three-year-old fillies in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), recording an unplaced finish in what has become a very key race.
High Again registered a field-best 97 BRIS Speed rating for her score in the Bonnie Miss S. (G2) earlier this year, and she earned a 95 for a second in the Davona Dale S. (G2). Her tactical speed should ensure a good trip in this 1 1/16-mile event, and David Flores will pilot her for the second straight time. We won't go against the likely chalk.
ALBA DABAS SECRET (Madraar) offers the opportunity for some value. Listed at 20-1 on the morning line, the multiple stakes winner returned from a freshening to finish a decent fourth in the Panthers S. at Prairie Meadows on June 9. She's worked well since then over the track, and the Donald Roberson pupil is eligible to show more in her second local attempt as the speed. Alba Dabas Secret owns top BRIS E1 and E2 Pace ratings here, and she isn't a one-dimensional front runner. However, we expect her to show speed from the start.
MARIETTA (Machiavellian) appears to be on the improve for Eoin Harty, breaking her maiden two starts back and finishing third in the Selene S. (Can-G3) at Woodbine most recently. The winner in the latter, Bear Now (Tiznow), captured the Hill 'n' Dale S. by 9 3/4 lengths next out. Marietta will get the services of Rafael Bejarano, and the late runner will attempt to pick up the pieces for a top-three placing.
IRISH PARTY (Twining) has shown an affinity for the Altoona, Iowa, oval, recording a 5-1-1 mark from eight starts, and she posted back-to-back stakes wins before finishing second in the Panthers last time. The Kelly Von Hemel charge has raced at mostly shorter distances, but Irish Party figures to be in the thick of things turning for home and may be able to hold for part.
LE CHATEAU (Chester House) is poorly drawn on the far outside, but she can't be dismissed from exotics consideration. A 10 1/2-length maiden winner three starts back, the Ralph Nicks runner gained valuable seasoning versus stakes rivals when fifth in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) two back. She posted a confidence-building win at this distance over allowance rivals at Churchill last time, and Le Chateau figures to be charging late under regular rider Robby Albarado.
SWIFT TEMPER (Giant's Causeway) kept good company this spring, but was unplaced in three straight attempts versus graded stakes rivals. Her last start -- a fifth against allowance rivals at Churchill -- is more disconcerting, but she did have some traffic issues that afternoon. The chestnut filly won't face the stiffest competition in this spot, and she'll be running late under Tim Doocy. ACROSSTHEBORDER (Include) turned in two solid efforts prior to a sixth in the Panthers, and we wouldn't be surprised to see her improve off her last start, which followed a two-month freshening. Her Speed numbers are a little low, but the Ray Tracy Jr. trainee had hit the board in five straight races prior to her last.
After being claimed for $30,000 three starts back, HUMBLE JANET (Humble Eleven) finished third in an entry-level allowance before breaking through under the same conditions last time for Steve Asmussen. She'll receive a serious class test here, and Humble Janet will have to overcome post 9. BYENNE (Jambalaya Jazz) has been kept strictly on Polytrack throughout her five-race career, racing at Turfway, Keeneland and Arlington. We'll watch to see how she handles a new surface (dirt) in her stakes bow. COMARILLO (Deputy Commander), a $25,000 claiming winner three starts back, would be a surprise here.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-HIGH AGAIN
2nd-ALBA DABAS SECRET
3rd-MARIETTA
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Friday, June 29
RACE ONE
The Captain Squire Handicap is an interesting handicapping challenge, bringing together five runners who have all made their last start at different tracks. NOBLE COURT, who was last seen taking the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita in February, has trained exceptionally well for John Sadler and gets top billing. QUINTONS SHOCKER won three of his four starts in Arizona last year and returns with a new trainer in Mike Mitchell. LUIS'S ESPECIAL is the now horse, winning three of his last five, and might be able to handle the class raise.
RACE TWO
MOONLIT HABIT never really got untracked May 19 in his first start since last summer, but should rebound nicely today. The last time he tried two turns he was a close second to multiple winner Robador. He'll be awfully tough to catch from the rail. BIG BAD LEROYBROWN has moved forward in each start and now gets an opportunity to route for Donald Warren. He should complete the exacta. GENERAL BUENO was a couple lengths behind 'LEROYBROWN after a slow start. He graduated at this trip May 10.
RACE THREE
Fillies and mares at this level are known for their inconsistency, but I'MALADYTAK seems the most reliable. She stepped up to the $16,000 level after being claimed by high-percentage trainer Frank Monteleone, faltered late, and now dips down to the cellar and draws the leading rider. She's been in the money six of nine this year. LIL NUGGET just handled a similar group and now goes for her third straight. Her stalking style makes her a fit. JIMMIE PONG has settled for minor shares recently and can grab another small piece of the pot.
RACE FOUR
The most effective drop in racing is from straight maidens to maiden claiming and SURFER KRIS fits the bill well. After three nondescript efforts routing, 'KRIS cuts back in distance and should turn back this ordinary claiming crew. TRUCKEE LITE made steady progress against similar, finishing third behind a pair of deadheaters. He's been showing improvement from race to race and can move up into the two spot today. EAGLE RIDGE has been a big disappointment and doesn't seem to be getting any better. He can't drop any lower than today's price.
RACE FIVE
SUM MISTAKE saved ground and was a willing second in her first attempt over Cushion Track. She steps up a notch here for Monteleone and appears the probable winner from just off the pace. REMEMBER MAGGIE finds a race without much speed and could shake loose from her outside post. Beware. COURT OF QUEENS showed courage in her maiden victory and is placed at what should be a competitive level. Her rider, Isaias Enriques, isn't getting much press but is enjoying a fine meeting (16%).
RACE SIX
BAD BOY seems to have found his niche, losing by a head under these conditions June 6. Unless one of the firsters can fly, BAD BOY looks like the right horse. WORLD NEWS is coupled in the wagering with BAD BOY, making the entry double tough. 'NEWS ran best sprinting on the turf, so it's been a bit surprising that his connections continued to run him long. He returns to the short game and will no doubt perk up. PUSH SEND debuts for strong connections (Richard Mandella and Victor Espinoza) and has a list of good workouts.
RACE SEVEN
CHARMING DOT loves this turf course and is making the most of it. This race will mark her fifth start of the meeting and she's already come away with two victories. Her versatility is the key to her success. CATEGORIZE will take a lot of betting action as she dips into claiming company. She's often in the battle, but has come away empty in five outings this year. SPY ALY was beaten a nose by 'DOT one race back, but was claimed by Steve Knapp and immediately regressed.
RACE EIGHT
STAYS IN VEGAS was second when dropped to this level June 7 and now gets a pivotal rider change from William Antongeorgi to Corey Nakatani. She has good early zip and may stay the course. SAN LAMEER got within a half-length of 'VEGAS in the aforementioned race and could turn the tables with any luck. CAPTURE THE CAT is now trained by Adam Kitchingman after
Best Bet-MOONLITE HABIT (2)
__________________
Belmont
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Banrock (4th race)
First Race
1. Spenny 2. Gold Like U 3. Short Fuse Tara
SPENNY was finished after the opening half-mile when tried on the grass two weeks ago; trainer has solid turf-to-dirt numbers, and she has run well all three starts on dirt this season. GOLD LIKE U has been productive on a once-a-month schedule in 2007, and like the choice she holds a recent decision over SHORT FUSE TARA; question is whether she can still put up two good-figure performances back to back. Short Fuse Tara chased a bias-aided winner when claimed from runner-up finish at odds-on; would need a new lifetime top figure to turn the tables on the top two.
Second Race
1. He Aint Easy 2. Bully for Us 3. Wonderous Day
HE AINT EASY was roughed up and steadied at the start in debut, rallied wide to decision ONE LITTLE SECRET (who was knocked sideways at the break and raced greenly); another try. BULLY FOR US is by multiple Grade 1 winner who loved this track; trio of fast workouts. WONDEROUS DAY (half-brother to several sprint winners) and NICELY PUT (half to recent turf sprint winner Inside Info) rate a look if money shows.
Third Race
1. False Pretense 2. Just Seventeen 3. Loving Vindication
FALSE PRETENSE sold for $130K in training three months ago; half-sister to seven-time sprint winner (and Claiming Crown winner) Mum's Gold has worked steadily. JUST SEVENTEEN is by a very good debut sire, and has been readied by a stable that has won several 2-year-old sprints at the meet. LOVING VINDICATION fetched $750K as a yearling last fall; may have tipped hand in June 8 work ranked best of 64 at the distance.
Fourth Race
1. Banrock 2. Couth 3. Red Down South
BANROCK finished well after finding room when second in first start of the year to Pays to Dream, who was winning his third straight; that was a slight improvement to a new top Beyer figure, and his typical efforts look to be a cut above these. COUTH matched his lifetime best figure when returned to turf second start of the year; two-time winner on local grass spotted field a head-start at 8-5 most recently. RED DOWN SOUTH raced wide when beaten a couple lengths by Banrock first time out as a 7-year-old - his best race since the fall of 2005; picks up Luzzi.
Fifth Race
1. Zen Buddha 2. Fascinating Girl 3. Runaway Star
ZEN BUDDHA picked up the pieces for fourth after lagging well off a sharp pace set by repeater Southern Sass first out; drops a notch, should be closer with blinkers on. FASCINATING GIRL has caught sealed wet tracks in her last two starts vs. maiden claimers; only other try for sale was a rallying secondd on this track to begin career. RUNAWAY STAR has a pedigree that suggests she should be at least as good on dirt as on turf, and perhaps better; lone dirt start was vs. special-weight rivals.
Sixth Race
1. Minefield 2. Leo 3. Silver Timber
If switched to dirt, MINEFIELD showed considerable talent winning both starts off workouts as a juvenile by a combined 12 1/4 lengths, and was sold to Godolphin Stable after the big-figure score in the fall. On turf, Godolphin also has the one to beat in LEO or TRUE CAUSE, who finished necks apart in a listed stake as 2-year-olds overseas. Leo hasn't been out since October of 2005, but that was also the case with Emirates to Dubai, another Godolphin layoff winner in a turf sprint last week. SILVER TIMBER may be pushing the envelope attempting a stretch to seven furlongs, but was sharp in comeback on this course, and breezed nicely five days ago.
Seventh Race
1. Montauk Daisy 2. Cateleisha 3. Mt Langfuhr
MONTAUK DAISY overcame some trouble to win her first two starts in long sprints last year, which is a good indication she'll be ready for first start at age 4; favorable work pattern. CATELEISHA went well for second last out vs. 8-5 favorite Zippy Missy - her best race in termss of figures since debut on this track as a juvenile; extra credit for wet track. MT LANGFUHR rode the crest of an inside speed bias to turn back odd-on Short Fuse Tara last out; tougher pace match-up with LADY ELAINE in the mix.
Eighth Race
1. Giant Basil 2. Mathematician 3. Rock Lobster
GIANT BASIL was sidelined after disappointing as the favorite in the Hill Prince last June, and returned with an exceptionally fast and game win at Hollywood Park, a race in which he made two moves to prevail; arrived in New York shortly afterward, has trained well while given ample recovery time. MATHEMATICIAN appeared poised to pounce turning for home, but came up empty when set down in U.S. debut here just 12 days ago; entrymate PALACE EPISODE was a Group 1 winner at 2, but was eased lone start as a 3-year-old. ROCK LOBSTER is back at course & distance of close-up fourth with a near-top figure two starts ago; tough set-up last out chasing 2006 Peter Pan winner Sunriver, who recaptured his best form to wire the field first time on grass.
Ninth Race
1. Lets Get Going 2. Party Jones 3. Broadway Bud
LETS GET GOING was no match for well-bet comebacker Armament last out, but was clearly best of the rest; also a clear second in previous non-winners of two claimer on local turf. PARTY JONES slipped through inside, gave odds-on Exton a good fight down to the wire most recently; never out of the exacta since switched to turf. BROADWAY BUD and GOOD LOOKING OUT figure close based on their respective last-out victories over maiden claimers; the latter is the lone entrant to have successfully negotiated nine furlongs.
__________________
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Belmont for Friday June 29, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Belmont
Ranking: 4 Coins
Belmont - Race #7 - Post: 6:04pm
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
Choice Plays:
#6 MT LANGFUHR (ML=5/1)
#7 LADY ELAINE (ML=7/2)
MT LANGFUHR - Ran against 'open' company in the last race, in with state breds today. This filly's last rating is good enough to win here, I'll play her right back this time out. I am keen on that recent effort on Jun 14th at Belmont where she finished first. LADY ELAINE - The jock has had great success with this horse in the past. Didn't ride last time but gets back in the saddle today. This speed freak should benefit from this race's shorter distance. This entrant ran out of the money at Belmont last time out on the soft turf. She should improve in this event under better track conditions.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MONTAUK DAISY (ML=9/5), #3 CATELEISHA (ML=5/2), #4 PRECISE LADY (ML=8/1)
MONTAUK DAISY - I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended vacation and no drop in level of competition. CATELEISHA - Finished second in her most recent performance with a mediocre fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field. PRECISE LADY - Would have to advance off that fifth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MT LANGFUHR - I'm investing on this one today. A softer field is going to make a big difference. Will be strong today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 MT LANGFUHR is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,7]
__________________
Brian Gabrielle
Bonus Play: Orlando Predators vs Phildelphia Soul
Wild Card Shootout! Predators and Soul played one week ago and it was a blowout for the Soul. Expect higher scoring from Orlando today and an all out attack on the passer for Philadelphia. Orlando just aquired a very good receiver 3 weeks ago and last week he (Toliver) delivered 3 touchdowns. If the Predators' receiver Ron Johnson is healthy, he is a factor as well. Meanwhile Philadelphia have been up and down all year-playing well one week and not so well the following week. Expect Coach Gruden to kick it up a notch and the Predators to make a better score today. Turnovers will be the key today-whichever team gets the ball the most scores the most. I expect a knock-down dragout matchup. Take the total to go over.
Bonus Play: Saskatchewan Rough Riders vs Montreal Alouettes
We will play the Alouettes at -3 . The Alouettes stack up in our CFL system with a 5.9 rating. Our system is based on several years of experience, practice and fine tuning with solid year over year returns. Ratings are not multipliers on base unit betting. Our ratings system is on a 1-8 scale, but we will never release a play lower than a 5.9. Winning is our business and businss is good.
dennis macklin
MLB Chicago (A) vs. Kansas City []
Take Under
Both these teams are currently on significant under runs, the White Sox eight straight, the Royals 4-1 L5 and 7-3 L10. While neither of tonight\'s starters have overwhelming statistical numbers, this is a good spot for both. Jose Contreras had been an UNDER machine prior to last year\'s All-Star break, at one point the under cashing in 32-9 of his 41 starts. The big righty is 7-2 LT vs KC with 2.96 ERA. Brian Bannister is 4-4 with respectable 3.78 ERA and Royals are 6-2 under in his starts. Neither team hitting much over L7 and both getting by on solid pitching
maddux sports
Cincinnati -145
Gator's MLB 70% Situational Report:
MLB (Friday): Play Against MLB home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team that averages <=4.5 runs per game facing a team with a bullpen ERA >=5.00 and a starting pitcher who averages less than 1.75 bases on balls per start.
(38-13 since 1997.) (74.5%)
PLAY: Chicago White Sox -105
HONDO
June 29, 2007 -- Hondo, who bagged a beaut Wednesday night with the Bucs, gave the bulk of it back yesterday when he tumbled with Texas to raise the ac counts payable to 95 zisks.
Tonight, he's loggin' in with Mussina in El Bronx - 10 units on the best underachievers money can buy
Marc Lawrence
MLBFriday 6/29
San Francisco w/Morris over Arizona w/Hernandez
Matt Morris takes the hill in San Francisco tonight knowing his 2.79 ERA at home this year is more than a full run better than his road ERA (3.93). On the flip side, Arizona's Livan Hernandez sports a 5.67 ERA away from home as opposed to a 3.83 ERA at home. With Hernandez having dropped 7 of his last 9 team starts in June and Morris having cashed in 12 of his last 16 teams starts in June, including four in a row at home, we'll stay at home with Morris and the Giants against Hernandez and the Diamondbacks this evening
Marc Lawrence MLB Super Pick Super Play! - Friday 6/29:
Play On: Chicago White Sox w/Contreras over Kansas City w/Bannister
Note: Pale Hose send Jose Contreras up against Royls' Brian Bannister knowing Contreras ERA on the road (3.94) is more than a run and a half better than his ERA at home (5.45) this season. On the other hand, Bannister WHIP at home (14.28) pales in comparison to his road WHIP (8.6). Back the better team, and the better arm, here tonight.
Guaranteed Sports MLB
Marlins -155
dave Price MLB
Orioles +165
Black Widow MLB
Rangers 9.5
Info Plays MLB
Orioles +170
3-0 +370
John Martin MLB
Dodgers U 8.5
Jeff Alexander MLB
White Sox +121
Jimmy Boyd MLB
Mets -175
BC Sports MLB
Rockies +155
Pro Cappers MLB
D-Backs -135
Tony Mathews
10* Braves -125
10* Detroit -120
10* White sox -110
Larry Ness' 15* Pitching Mismatch GOW (64-17 with 15* GOW plays since Opening Day!)
My 15* play is on the SD Padres at 10:40 ET. San Diego's Chris Young last visited Dodger Stadium back on April 15 and he lasted just two innings, allowing seven hits and four ERs. The Dodgers won that game 9-3, snapping Young's streak of 25 consecutive road starts without a loss. Young had been 9-0 with 16 no-decisions on the road dating to June 25, 2005, at Houston when he was with Texas. Young's hardly let that poor start get to him, as he enters this game 7-3 with a 2.08 ERA in 2007. He's DOMINATED at home TY, allowing just 27 hits and five ERs in 48 innings for a 0.94 ERA in seven starts. However, the Padres are just 4-3 in those games. His road efforts in '07, despite that ugly start at Dodgers Stadium, are still very impressive. After the Padres went 12-4 in his road starts LY (2.25 ERA), they are 6-2 in his road starts in '07 (3.38). He'll face an LA team that's barely over .500 vs right-handers in '07 (28-26), while averaging barely four runs per game (4.1). Meanwhile, he'll be opposed by Dodger lefty Hong-Chih Kuo. Kuo looked sharp in his first three outings (2.04 ERA) but in his last two, has allowed 10 hits and 11 ERs in seven innings (14.14). That spells good news for a SD team that's 15-9 (plus-$525) vs lefties this year, averaging 4.9 RPG. Pitching Mismatch GOW 15* SD Padres
Larry Ness' 15* Bailout GOW (64-17 with 15*s TY / Perfect 8-0 with Bailout GOW plays!)
My 15* play is on the SF Giants at 10:15 ET. Arizona's in a first-place 'battle' with LA and San Diego in the NL West, while the Giants (at 33-44) just keep waiting for Barry to hit numbers 755 and 756. However, while San Francisco is just 9-22 since May 25, the Giants have won 10 of their last 13 home meetings with the D'backs, including a three-game sweep earlier this season (4/20-22). Matt Morris goes for the Giants and he's bounced back from a career-worst 4.99 ERA last year (his first year with the Giants after nine seasons with the Cards) to go 7-4 with a 3.39 in 15 starts in 2007 (team is 9-6). Morris won 79 games from 2001-05 with the Cards and was an excellent home pitcher, with the Cards winning 68% of his home starts (59-28) during that five-year run. In seven home starts this year, the Giants are 5-2 with Morris posting a 2.79 ERA. Livan Hernandez goes for Arizona (pitched for the Giants from 1999-2002) and while he's 3-4 with a 2.82 ERA in 10 career starts vs San Francisco, he comes into this game in terrible form. In his last five starts he's 0-3 (team is 1-4), allowing 43 hits and 23 ERs in 27 innings for an ERA of 7.67. Bailout GOW 15* SF Giants.
Good Luck...Larry
black widow sports
MLB
1* on Philadelphia -151
(List Hamels)
Lefty standout Cole Hamels takes on a struggling Mets team that is 1-7 in their last 8 road games. Hamels is 9-3 on the year featuring a 3.80 ERA. Philly has won 3 straight over New York to boot. Cole Hamels beat John Maine 6-3 back on June 7th. The Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League East. The Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Phillies are 7-0 in Hamels' last 7 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. These 100% situations make this a very valuable Bonus Play. This is Game 2 of a double-header today, so make sure you are betting the finale. Take Philadelphia.
Steve Janus Free Pick 6.29.2007
MLB :Mets - 145
SPORTSCAPPING.COM FREE PICK 6/29
MLB: Mets - 145
jeff alexander
Kansas City +105 (Contreras and Bannister)
The Royals are on fire as they go for their 5th straight win tonight. The Royals are jacked after sweeping one of the best teams in the AL, and Bannister, who has won 4 of his last 5 starts will keep things rolling today. Contreras is just 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA in his last six starts. With the pitching clearly in K.C.'s favor, I have to give the Royals the edge at home.
info plays
3* on Cincinnati -127
(Listing Arroyo and Wainwright)
Bronson Arroyo is better than what he has shown this season. A return home will help his psyche for the Reds today. The Reds have owned St. Louis at home in recent years. Cincinnati is 8-3 over St. Louis in their last 11 home meetings. The Cardinals are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series and 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Reds are 5-1 in Arroyo's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Reds are 11-3 in Arroyo's last 14 starts during game 1 of a series. Bet Cincinnati today.
WUNDERDOG
BELMONT PARK Race #TWO (3:30 PM Eastern)
(# 5) HE AIN'T EASY - Ran a fine second in debut despite a troubled getaway. Donk barn has been live this entire meet and this gelding has had almost a month to recover from initial racing experience. Nice maintenance work on June 17.
(# 4) One Little Secret - Comes out of the same race as the top pick and he too had a poor start. Ramsay homebred chased the pace before tiring late. Trainer Wesley Ward has super numbers with second-time starters and the work on June 21 means business.
(# 2) Bully For Us - Stable has been known to have a two-year-old runner now and then. Works are all short and indicate that sp! eed is present. Son of Holy Bull debuts with Lasix, and Coa is enticed for the initial run.
Priceless Pick for Friday
MLB
Unit on Houston -138 (action)
Colorado is 13-42 against the money line in road games against NL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons and 42-104 against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games since 1997. Colorado has lost 7 straight games and as they saw in game 1, playing at Houston is still no cup of tea for them. The Astros are 6-1 at home against Colorado over the last 3 seasons. Take the 'stros!
PAUL Leiner
50* Whitesox
5* Wash/Pitt over 8.5
WUNDERDOG
Game: San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: San Diego -118
No one has slipped under the radar more so than Chris Young. He has put together 10 straight starts to rival any 10 in baseball history! Young has allowed just 35 hits in 63 innings and has pitched to a 1.12 ERA over his last 10. He has simply been unhittable. The Dodgers don't seem to know what to do with Hong Chih Kuo. He pitched out of the pen with little success last year while finishing the season as a starter. This year he opened in the pen again, only to be placed in the rotation, where he has had little success. Kuo has an ERA of 6+, and to put that in perspective it would take Young six starts to get that many runs as he has allowed 5 in his last 5 starts. Advantage Padres at a very economical price.
trev rodgers
78-44-3 Last 125 selections
1. Cubs -122
2. Dodgers +110
3. Rockies +125
Ed Redmon
2* DET
2* CHC
CAPPERS ACCESS
(Fri) MLB Cubs
(Fri) MLB Giants
LOCKSMITH SPORTS
MLB
on NY Yankees -172 (listing Kennedy and Mussina)
Kennedy is 2-16 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. He is just 2-8 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season, 3-11 against the money line in all games this season, and 4-18 against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. Put your clams on Kennedy and the A's getting lit up tonight on the road
BLACK MAGIC SPORTS
MLB
(Listing Santana)
We can’t remember the last time Johan Santana was an underdog. But we are definitely not going to pass up this opportunity to cash in with the league’s best pitcher. Santana has a 2.83 ERA on the season and has really turned it on over his last 3 starts. The Twins are 3-0 in Santana’s last 3 outings with his 1.23 ERA showcased. The Twins are 12-2 in Santana's last 14 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Twins are 46-13 in Santana's last 59 starts with 4 days of rest and 45-15 in Santana's last 60 starts vs. American League Central. The Tigers are just 1-4 in their last 5 home games. The Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Detroit. Cash in with Minnesota.
